Based on a chart by Josh Nelson of EnviroKnow .
BP's Deepwater Horizon disaster took a major turn toward one of the many worst-case scenarios today. BP took off the containment cap that had been capturing up to 25,000 barrels of oil a day, after a robotic submarine smashed into one of its vents.
The Deepwater Horizon spill cam showed an immediate surge in oil. How much oil? That's up for debate. The highest government estimate so far has 60,000 barrels as the upper daily limit.
But an internal BP memo posted by Pro Publica showed the company said the spill could be as large as 100,000 barrels a day if every containment measure failed.
"If BOP and wellhead are removed and if we have incorrectly modeled the restrictions -- the rate rate could be as high as ~ 100,000 barrels per day up the case or 55,000 barrels per day up the annulus (low probability worse cases)," the undated memo reads.
UPDATE: Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen says one of the tankers is still collecting oil at a rate of 10,000 barrels a day. Ten thousand barrels of what total? Dunno.
DOUBLE UPDATE: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) has a BP document that shows 162,000 barrels a day as the worst-case flow.
After the jump, Josh Nelson updates the chart of spill estimates way better than we did:







it's more like 100,000 a day but they won't tell you that!
Now they have the cap off... now, if they would just unbolt that stub of riser, and bolt on a blowout preventer, the leak would be over...
The cap was larger diameter than the well head and BOP and they still had a tough time getting it in, unless they can validate the strength of what is left of the well head and form a skirt that would encase and encompass the remaining BOP remnants then there would be little hope of them being able to accurately and safely attach another unit.
They could fashion a clamp that would support the weight of another BOP and also be able to hold both in contact but the measurements are highly difficult and the time needed to form and set the concrete as well as transport to site and delivery would not help immediately though a true engineer would have thought of this and began preparations many weeks ago.
PLEASE LISTEN TO THIE-2 PARTS--
A deadly bubble?
sorry-not working--find it on u-tube
Until they prove they can contain this, they cannot be expected to contain another.
According to your network, 2 workers died today as well. Adm Allen said they were clean-up workers but the deaths were not work related. One passed away from a gunshot wound, what the hell is happening down there? I know people get shot but seems odd that Adm. Allen would make a statement on a clean-up worker getting shot. I sure hope Blackwater/Talon/Wakenhut, wasn't involved.
Just heard that it was a suicide...thats not good means that we will start seeing the psychological effects like they did in the Valdez incident
The containment cap has been progressively leaning over the past few weeks; just the other day I did a video grab of it, showing that they were using all kinds of cables in an apparent attempt to keep it from falling.
If a robot really bumped into the venting cap (really? it's that fragile?!), my money is on that they did it on purpose so that they could remove the containment cap before it completely fell over.
It's been over 100,000 from day one. Oil industry guru Matt Simmons called it first, says nuking is the only option, or it will flow for 24+ years unabated: http://dailybail.com/home/oil-guru-matt-simmons-says-bp-relief-wells-will-fail-underse.html
Ya lets cause huge tsunami's irradiate the ocean and blow a bigger hole in the ground. Oh and it's against a crap load of international treaties against use of nuclear arms. Thats like closing the front door on a house by taking a recking ball to the front of the building.
Both of your arguments (tsunamis and the violation of internation treaties) are not supported by fact.
The use of a nuclear devise in this situation would be so deep underground that radiation would not be a issue and censors on the seabed (and a hopeful end to the flow of oil and gas) would be the only means of confirming that the detonation occurred.
I don't want to see it come to the point in which the use of an atomic bomb is the only alternative to allowing this horrible gusher of oil and gas to continue, but I feel we need to be prepared, as a nation, for the possibility.
I'd much rather wait for the relief wells than learn that the radiation and nuclear blast killed more things than the spill would have... "...deadly for 10,000 years is carbon 14."
Um the detonation of any nuclear arm is against many nuclear arms treaties. I don't need to post anything to prove that. If you knew anything about international law you would know this. Even Rachel Maddow brought it up on air. As far as blowing the nuke deep underground there is absolutely no technology capable to put a nuke down the well. If we were capable of putting a large steel object down that well a hundred feet deep let alone the possible thousands of feet this would require to not just cause a bigger hole don't you think we would have put a plug down the hole. Use your common sense if you have any. If we have a way to put such a large object down the hole there would be no need to blow it up. You are the one lacking in facts to prove this would work or even be capable with current technology.
If blowing the well shut was a viable option it would have been done on this or many of the other similar spills in the past. A little C4 is not expensive compared to billions in cleanup, so there are very good reasons why they don't do it.
Oh and are you familiar with how a gun or rife works you put a controlled explosion at the end of a long tube. when the explosion occurs the blast follows the path of least resistance. now put massive pressure behind that blast and a tube that will simply grow in size due to its inability to maintain integrity.
Trust me when the IED that blew in the culvert under my truck in Afghanistan would have killed me and my crew if most of the blast didn't just shoot out the tube instead of up.
Bookers19, thank you for your service, I was a contractor in Iraq for 3 years and have the highest respect for those in uniform.
Anyone who has ever seen a barrel exploded because the bullet impacted an obstruction can understand the effect of setting a blast off down that deep.
Yeah, I'm thinking that the Gulf Coast is pretty much getting it up the annulus, for sure.
Thread over. You win.
RIP Gulf of Mexico.
It's time for some regulation. Thanks Bush Jr. for being so far up big oil's butt.
I couldn't have said that better Ashley.
This all goes back to Bush's policies of deregulation that led to the corruption of the MMS.
RIP is right. By August the gulf coast won't be able to support life.
I can just hear Glenn Beck now:
"Obama personally rammed that sub into the containment cap in order to make the gusher even worse. Then he could use that as justification to ram his communistic cap and trade climate legislation down our throats. We all know that this is the first step in turning over control of our beloved homeland to the UN, who will redistribute all our food and money to poor countries that are too lazy to get up off their behinds and work, like a normal, self respecting country. It makes me want to cry----and strangle Nancy Pelosi!"
Damn, I never realized how much fun it can be to go completely bonkers like Beck!
@Uffdaguy - You forgot "and it's exactly like what the Nazis did! NAZIS!!! NAZIS I TELL YOU!!! BOOGA, BOOGA, BOOGA!!!"
Sorry about that man! As much fun as it is to be psychotic, it's hard work too, so little things like Nazis are occasionally forgotten.
Yes, crazy can be hard. Rush needs many drugs to keep up his psychosis.
Though Beck makes it easy. "Blah, blah, blah, Obama+Nazis, blah, blah. Blah, bleh-blah blah, Nazis+Obama. Something misspelled on my chalkboard, connecting Obama to Nazis. Sniffle, tears, sniffle, I love my country. Nazis."
Sarah Palin must not be praying hard enough.
I'd say this is a case of christians falling down on the job! Pray, dammit, pray! You'll pray continuously until the gusher miraculously stops, and you'll like it!
A completely pointless post but hilarious just the same.
Sometimes a situation is so bad you just have to laugh to keep from losing your sanity and starting to cry.
Not at all a pointless post. According to the circular logic:
- God is all-knowing, all-powerful.
- Sarah Palin is as godly as they come and knows what God really wants.
- Ergo, if something isn't going the way the GOP/Teabaggers want, it must be because Sarah isn't doing enough to change God's mind from his predetermined, divine plan.
Poor Sarah, the things she must be suffering right now as her beauty radiates wide and far, farther than her prayers have reached so far I am sure but how does someone so beautiful remain humble which is a central aspect of Christianity?
I would hate to be such a dedicated Christian dedicated to the words of Christ and the good book which furthers the welfare of all and the fact that the meek shall inherit the Earth and pushing a camel through the eye of a needle would be easier than a rich MAN getting into heaven or some such stuff, balancing such humble nature with her apparently astounding beauty must be a living hell which would actually explain the demons spouting out each time she opens her mouth.
What puzzles me - you can actually pick just as many bits out of the bible to justify slavery, genocide, sexism, racism, get-yours-and-kill-everyone-else-for-it.
But no; Palin and friends support this idea yet claim to cling to the warm-and-fuzzy version of their religion. Irritating enough to be told I have to believe in their extraterrestrial sky monster while pooh-poohing other people's sky monsters as just mythology. But could they at least try and live by their own chosen code of said sky monster?
I am no scientist by any means but my question is if they can produce enough pressure to push drilling mud into the hole why cant they continuously pump sea water into the hole to push back the oil until relief wells hopefully work. Worst case scenario we pollute some sea water. What else is new. The pollution rate should be better than current levels. We have no shortage of sea water unless this thing keeps spewing.
From what little BP has released about the reason the top kill procedure was halted so abruptly, it appears that pressure is the enemy in this case. It would seem that the well casing has fractured, or is in danger of fracturing. By putting too much pressure on the casing, (as the top kill with drilling mud was doing), you could cause the complete failure of the well casing. It's kind of like blowing up a balloon, adding air pressure inside the balloon. You can keep adding more and more air, putting greater and greater stress on the skin of the balloon, but at some point, there is a catastrophic failure caused by the failure in just one small part of the balloon. At this point, the relief well seems to the last course available. If it succeeds, it will reduce the pressure at the well casing, allowing top kill or something similar to succeed without destroying the casing.
density would be my guess.
Yes the government is in charge but BP is the one on ground. They are running the equipment above and at the well. Hell they had HD video of the spill and the Government had no clue until it was released much later. Spills look worse in HD. So yes BP has not released a lot I am very sure of that.
I charge doesn't mean in control. Last I checked the us government doesn't have any super secret fleet of remote submarines equiped for oil well maintenance etc. Even if he deployed 100,000 troops on the water above the well they still could do nothing but work with BP and collect a pay check for doing nothing. Why are you so quick to place blame on someone that cant do a hole heck of a lot. Why don't you blame the company and the policies that allowed this to happen. Oh wait I forgot it is much easier to point fingers instead of being apart of the solution.
Has anyone seen this?!? http://act.credoaction.com/campaign/bp_turtles/?rc=t2
I want to boil these people in oil myself!!!
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ALL: Please recommend a website that is not controlled by BP et al where I can get real oil spill news. I am tired of getting "here's the latest" emails from my work collegaues with links to BP-based sites.
Huffington Post has had video and reports on a pretty regular basis. I haven't checked today.
The Oil Drum has a lot of what seems to be reputable info.
I'm going back to sleep now. Please wake me 9 weeks ago...
Marc
New Orleans, LA
Good god, that just makes me want to vomit! Wish I had gotten to see the Gulf again before it was raped.
LOL Uff. I wish Palin would pray that God grace her with a brain.
We discussed this in Anthropology class today; it's said that a moratorium on Gulf drilling could push gas prices up over $5/gallon. Collectively, spoiled America will never go for it. And yet I'm willing to bet that almost everyone in this country, if they put a little thought into it, could find a way (if not a few dozen ways) to cut back, drive less, have fewer vehicles, have a more efficient vehicle than they have now.
But the way our consumerism culture works, it doesn't even dawn on us. I know people who profess to be the biggest of tree huggers and don't even realize how much energy and material waste they are producing. It just doesn't even click to most of us.
As I have always feared, America as a whole won't go willingly into a clean energy, conservation world. It will have to be forced there, dragged, kicking and screaming.
If a moratorium pushed gas prices up like that, then a criminal investigation should be launched into price fixing and manipulation by the oil companies. Most accounts say there are 33 deepwater rigs operating in the Gulf. According to figures from NOAA, there are 3,858 oil platforms in the Gulf, operating 50,686 wells. Therefore, the 33 rigs targeted by the moratorium make up less than 1% of the rigs in the Gulf, and like the Deepwater Horizon, some of them are just drilling exploratory wells, and are not actually producing any oil at this time. So, if gas increases in price by approximately 100% due to the loss of far less than 1% of production, that would seem like the perfect basis for a criminal probe.
Good afternoon hatenomor-
That's why I refer to 'collectively' spoiled America. I'm not sure what being minority has to do with whether or not one is well-off or not, spoiled or not. But I grew up in Middle America where it's just a given that everyone is supposed to own a car or three, a house with way more space than you'll ever need. The $120 designer sneakers instead of the $20 pair from Payless.
Speaking for myself, I'm woefully underemployed thanks to Autism and lack of medical care. I'm homeless. Live in a beater RV wherever I can park it tonight and yes, it only gets 10mpg. It also only racks one or two thousand miles a year. Post knee injury I'm gradually getting back to walking and bicycling. My other vehicle is a motorcycle that gets 60mpg.
I live in a space the size of a walk-in closet. My electricity is solar. I'd be surprised if I use 10 gallons of water a day compared to the 110 or so average for an American last I checked. That 10 gallons includes most of my laundry which is hung-dried. I use about 5 gallons of propane a month in Summer, about 20 in Winter. At night, I read and light my RV by candlelight. I know plenty of other people who are living far more sustainably than the average.
I also know lots more that only think they are or who just don't see the point.
So when I talk of 'collectively,' 'most,' you don't have to feel that out of 350 million people I am referring to you specifically. How could I? I don't know you personally. I am not claiming to be the queen of sustainability, there's always more I could do. But if the other 350 million Americans want to get into a green-living pissing contest with me, I'm willing to bet I'd make it to the semi-finals. Most of them I'm willing to bet could not fathom making some of the changes I have or even walking/bicycling like you do.
And we do live in a majority-rules society. I'm not claiming to speak 'for the rest of you.' I'm claiming that you and I are in the minority.
I should also note that were I not underemployed at the moment, having learned how easy it is to live on so much less, not much about my lifestyle would change. My homelessness was part by necessity, but also part by choice. The less I have to spend, the less of my soul I have to sell to maintain it.
@Hatenomor, do you think it is unfair that MANY, not only Conservative, legislation s have given tax breaks to oil, coal and nuclear power companies and almost nothing to green energy? Would you call that capitalism when competition is reduced? Do you think that it is fair to give Billions to an industry and not demand those Billions be paid back when they make multi Billions in profit? Not earnings but outright profit?
Thinking in terms of true poverty; Whether gas is $3.50/gallon or $5/gallon, I'm struggling to fill the tank either way. And many of those I speak of who could waste far, far less are also around the poverty line.
Point of my post is that each of us as individuals can either start making those transitions now, slowly, gently, by choice, or we can wait until there's suddenly no gas or the price quadruples (dragged kicking and screaming). And I'm willing to bet that most individuals do not have the foresight to do the former.
And I'm not too sure where I'm claiming I want to deny others what they have in order to increase what I have. In fact I specifically stated that if I had comfortable, gainful employment, very little would change about my lifestyle. I'm talking about doing even more without (gas) in order to save the Gulf from further destruction, save the fishermen and tourist business there lost business - none of whom I know personally or am in any way affected by.
Hatey, I notice you failed to address the original point made by Jo and my response, that the moratorium that supposedly would cause gas to go up to $5 per gallon is actually a red herring, as the 33 deepwater rigs affected are less than 1% of the rigs in the Gulf, and not all of them are even producing yet. It's a convenient lie from the right, using the boogeyman of skyrocketing gas prices as a way to prevent regulation or even thorough investigation, because it will cost the poor consumer. Shutting down less than 1% of the rigs causing 100% price increases? That's more than criminal...its nothing short of treasonous.
I'll address it Uffda -
I was surprised when that figure was brought up in class because I keep hearing about how U.S. oil production is actually a very tiny percentage of global and that what's drilled here doesn't by default stay here; it goes into the global market.
So yeah, I would guess, based on admittedly very limited knowledge of the politics of oil, that such a hike would have more to do with unnecessary corporate greed than any actual crisis of resources.
It's yet another reason to seek out home-grown, sustainable energy sources. There are only so many foreign countries we can conquer for their oil and those we don't conquer get to set the price they want. On the other hand, solar, wind, hydro, and vegetable-oil or ethanol fuel grown here at home, we could regulate it.
*Could.* Provided we keep a 60 seat Democrat majority in the Senate. Because we all know how the GOP feels about government regulation.
I had this point brought u; by a co-worker who said the prices were all the fault of OPEC, I asked him to look up how much OPEC had raised prices in the last year and how often they had done such. He never brought the subject up again for some reason, I guess he began believing my point that speculation and price fixing have far more to do with this while we give tax breaks to companies that make over $20BN a year while we pay massive rates for gas. How about a profit limit that makes it more beneficial to the companies to lessen the pump prices? Who would support tax break cessation for any company which earns, from any and all umbrella companies, over $1BN as they are obviously making enough not to need such breaks.
Jim, you will notice that we haven't seen the big spikes in oil prices ever since the government started prosecuting some of the worst of the speculators. In fact, as soon as it was announced that there would be intensified scrutiny of speculators in energy, things stabilized rather nicely.
Isn't it astounding what REGULATION can do? :)
I cannot recall if the post was here or elsewhere but I posted that there are breaks, such as cash for clunkers, that have helped the Green energy people but, when you compare a few hundred Million given to Green projects and Billions given to EACH of the polluter power systems, Nuke also produces pollution in terms of electricity needs and transport as well as construction but that can be looked at another time, it really is apples and oranges as you suggest. Oil, Coal and Nuke should have the grants or breaks reduced and Green increased until there is parity and though not an equal amount, an amount equal in fairness in relation to value, outlook on investment return and a true cost benefit analysis which has not been done so far.
I did not say they should set a price, they should make sure it is more costly for a company receiving tax breaks to fix prices such as they are and have done for some time. The Gov has stepped in many times to break price fixing and it has made the system better. The gov has warned companies that illegal acts will be punished and they have complied or suffered for their acts, Enron being just 1. I think intervention is a very well used force and well proven also, Reagan did such in a way by imposing his will on the air traffic control union and strikers.
www.theoildrum.com has about the most thorough info and discussion about the spill.
Transocean Deepwater Horizon Oil rig was considered to be a vessel and as a vessel had to be registered in a country. I heard that the country under whose authority this vessel was registered was the country of Myanmar. Thus, the country of Mynarmar had the authority to inspect for operating irregularities and substandard structural issues. I understand that the Gulf of Mexcio has two planning area where oil vessels/ rigs are operating. The central planning area has 3,359 active oil platforms and the western planning area has 499 active oil platforms. I have questions to Rachel and others who maybe aware of answers to my questions.
How many of the existing 3,858 oil rigs/vessels are under the authority and regulating auspices of navigational authority of other countries other than the USA?
If our government has no authority to inspect and determine vessel rigs not meeting standard navigational guidelines, why would the govenment of USA be held responsible for cleanup?
What is the country of Myanmar doing to help clean up the mess from which may have been caused by their lack of scurtiny or irregular nativational standards of operation for ocean vessels?
Of the 3,858 active oil rigs/vessels located around the Gulf Coast what are the names of the countries under whose navaigational registration they have been assigned by their corporations request as in Transocean policy with DeepWater Horizon?
The Marshall Islands is the country under which the Deepwater Horizon was registered.
Very few rigs in the oceans are registered in the U.S.-Very Few.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-oil-inspection-20100615,0,3043517,full.story
hatenomor.. if you watch MSNBC you will know that the evening shows are all over BP, especially Rachel. If you think having the same lobbying firm would make them play softball, you haven't been watching
@Hatenomor, MSNBC have not been taking the side of BP, have not apologized to them or given them any more slack than CNN and have been far more critical than Fox of course though you bring up a valid point, we must all remain aware of the connections between news, and media companies, and the companies they report on.
Thank you, I agree fully and think the Coast Guard have a lot to answer for also as well as the White House, BP and Transocean
@hatenomor: I have to agree with you. Dragged kicking and screaming to it, but yeah, there's a lot more the government could be doing. And I think they know it. It's not incompetence, it's not sheer ignorance. There is something extremely nefarious about all this.
So what if one or both of those reserve wells start leaking, too, when something runs into them down deep in the dark with BP only being able to use remote cameras?
It's really time to admit we don't know where this could go. The subject may be moot as to whether there is a moratorium on other drilling. This well might be the mother of all hell which never goes away until the entire reserve leaks out into the Gulf.
Then the Republicans will use that as an excuse for allowing Big Oil to be as reckless as it wants? You can hear the apologists now. What's a little more oil in the scheme of things when the Gulf is bleeding to death anyways?
what's the difference? 20 years of dead zones and oil slick beaches or 40? big freaking deal, it's all over now for the gulf. and for BP
OT: McChrystal got the boot.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jPjd-D4I9aiHfNdUlAOjDc35n3xwD9GH48I00
"The Dwarves dug too greedily and too deep. You know what they awoke in the darkness of Khazad-dum... shadow and flame."
— Saruman, The Lord of the Rings
http://motherjones.com/blue-marble/2010/06/worst-already-true-BP-well-now-unstoppable An absolute MUST read written by someone with field experience. The reality very well may be that the entire sub-sea floor around the well is about to collapse. Share this story with friends.