
FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver looks at the National Annenberg Election Survey from 2008. Silver concludes that union membership was worth about 4.8 percentage points to President Obama. That's enough to account for four of the last 10 popular victories for Democratic candidates.





From the above article link:
And so if the unions "go away" these people will magically vote Republicans? I don't think so. My guess is that those in the union "variable" also identify with one of the other Democrat voting groupings, thus they would vote Democrat union member or not.
Also, how would this play out in the electoral college since they are looking at the presidential election, my guess is "no impact."
Just looking at the other side of the coin.
Maybe not, but if unions "go away" as you so eloquently described, it does remove their voice from the playing field. It's because of unions most states allow people to take time off from their work day to vote- something that Republicans are already working on getting rid of in several states.
Many unions make an effort to help get their members out to vote- and also to offer a counterpoint voice to the attack ads Karl Rove helped make the standard of the right. They also make efforts to ensure their member are able to register to vote- another thing that republicans are trying to make harder- it'd be hard enough to vote without getting the time off to do so, but with Republicans interested in cutting their wages further and further, plunking down $100 or more for a state issued ID isn't something they could afford when Republicans pass their bills requiring state ids for voting.
So yes, they won't suddenly "turn Republican"... but they may very well not be able to VOTE period- and that's almost the same thing.
Hmmm... some of these arguments seem to revolve around whether or not voters can get the day off to vote.
Do all states have mail-in (early voting) ballots ?? That would help.
What would it take (how does it get done ?) to declare Voting Day as a Federal holiday ??
In my opinion, let's drop Columbus Day (why do we honor a murderer ?) and swap the 'day' for Voting Day... no loss to the "work" calendar.
Just an idea....
Not in western PA.
Jess, Vote By Mail (VBM) is an excellent response to Republican efforts to curtail access to the polls. Oregon has done this for over a decade, and it works well. In many other states, a lage percentage, if not a majority, of votes are cast by absentee ballot in advance of the election date. People can complete their ballots at their convenience, well in advance of "election day."
MechTrek, you have no women, college educated or under 30 year olds in western PA?
MPguy, while I wish that could solve such problems, VBM and absentee ballots have still major issues- a friend of mine asked for absentee ballots by mail for his entire family, and did not receive them before the election. He finally drove in the weekend before to get them, and yet, a few months checking to see if his ballots had been tallied, was told that none of the ballots his family sent in (from various different locations- most of his kids are off at school) never "arrived". Yet every one of his registered republican neighbors who also got absentee ballots had gone through. And this is in Massachusetts.
And some of the Voter ID bills require you to still have to present a state ID just to request Voter By Mail.
So, yeah, none of these are really going to stop Republicans if they get their union busting through.
Eliminating unions won't have any impact on voting, as far as I can see, and I'm not even sure it will make that much of a difference in campaign funding in this post-Citizens United world. Corporations spent far more on repubs in the last election than unions did or could. That disparity is going to grow even larger in coming elections, even without the union-busting fervor that is currently gripping the fevered brow of the far right. No, as far as I can see, union busting has no other purpose than to make sure business has an even more powerful hand, allowing them to cut pay, benefits and more, increasing their profits and decreasing any accountability they may have to their employees. I have been heartened to see that the people of this country are finally rising up and saying enough is enough, telling the union busters where they can shove their ideas.
Half the blue-collar workers vote Republican. Why? I don't have a clue, except to postulate they believe Republican lies.
And why do "Christians" vote Republican? Did Jesus say to cut social spending and give the money to the rich?
I do not know a single reason why anyone would vote Republican.
The Republican Party no longer serves any legitimate purpose.
No, Jesus stayed out of government and politics for the most part. He placed the responsibility of taking care of widows, the poor, etc. on the individual. "Whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me."
Unfortunately, the church and people of faith have allowed the government to take over this role and very few feel any responsibility to do any more. Sad, but true.
The assertion that "government" is not allowed by God to help the poor because directly helping the poor is commanded by Jesus is a hoax. Jesus said to pay taxes-
The Son of Man came eating and drinking, and you say, "Here is a glutton and a drunkard, a friend of tax collectors and sinners" (Luke 7:34) and there is something about "tithing" if you bother to look it up.
"Jesus... placed the responsibility of taking care of widows, the poor, etc. on the individual. 'Whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me'" is a non sequitur. How is helping the poor by paying taxes NOT serving God?
Every Republican who advocates cutting social spending and boosting tax handouts to the wealthy mocks God.
“No one can serve two masters. Either you will hate the one and love the other, or you will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money." -Matthew 6:24
If those so-called Christians had ever read the Bible they'd know Republicans are blasphemers. Hell is full of Republicans.
I definitely did not mean to imply that God did not allow the government to help the poor. Instead, many people of faith have used the excuse that "government takes care of the poor" to not contribute or help those same people themselves.
I'm not sure what you mean by your Luke 7 quote. Jesus was a friend of tax collectors not because they were government workers but because they were outcasts, hated, and often corrupt individuals who needed to know what love was.
As far as tithing, that is not to the government.
Jesus said to pay taxes not because government was good and it used it to help the poor. Do you actually think ancient Rome had a lot of social programs? No, he was being trapped. He said "render to Caesar the things of Caesar" to ridicule those trying to set the trap. God didn't make the money, Caesar did...Jesus said in essence, "go ahead, give it back to him."
Serving too masters is appropriate for the discussion. Watch what you put your faith in!
Yes, there are a lot of Republicans in hell...and Democrats and Independents and Liberals and Conservatives and...these labels do nothing for you in God's eyes.
These labels do nothing for you in God's eyes because actions speak for themselves. Those who mock God by presuming godlike power to themselves when they judge others are asking for punishment. God said so over and over.
"God didn't make the money, Caesar did...Jesus said in essence, "go ahead, give it back to him." No kidding. Remember that when some Republican blockhead says "it's my money".
"Whose picture is on the coin? And whose name is written on the coin?" The men answered, "It is Caesar's picture and Caesar's name." Then Jesus said to them, "Give to Caesar the things that are Caesar's.
All money belongs to the government, not to anyone in particular.
Never confuse a Republican with a Christian.
Many Republicans have used the excuse that "charity takes care of the poor" not to contribute or pay taxes to those same people themselves. They expect the poor to line up along the sidewalk with their palms stretched out like in India or like it used to be in ancient Rome in Jesus's time.
It's all they know. They demand to be honored for their charity, called noblesse oblige, and sneer with contempt on the force of law. Why should a rich guy pay ten thousand dollars in tax when he can make a ten thousand dollar gift to charity and earn the grace of God for his benevolence?
Finally, something we can agree on. I'll not comment on the rest of your post only to say that I concur, "actions speak louder than words."
Once heard a rather corny but catchy paraphrase of this: Your talk talks and your walk talks, but your walk talks louder than your talk talks.
The real question I'd secretly like to know, is how many of the demonstrators (i wholeheartedly support them) in Madison actually VOTED in November. As far as I can tell, a lot of the people I see demonstrating now, are in demographics that stayed home in November. I know, that is a sweeping generalization, but nobody seems to be asking this question. The takehome message for me is "Elections matter, VOTING matters!" Sending a message by staying home or voting for the other side is STUPID!
That was the message that went out continuously before the election, and one that was unheeded. It took electing a bunch of far right extremists for the lazy, the apathetic, the disillusioned to see what happens when you decide to stay home instead of vote. There were ample warnings to people about not voting for repubs just because you wanted to make some sort of "protest vote" to teach dems a lesson. Now we see plainly what happens when you vote out of spite rather than making an adult decision.
A question arises- why are Democrats so passive and Republicans so active? Dr. Maddow has pointed out that most people who can vote are Democrats but most people who actually vote are Republicans. I propose this is because Democrats are satisfied with the government but Republicans are agitated by it. In this case Republicans are enraged that labor unions empower working class serfs who presume to rise above their place in life and question the judgment of the noble class.
If anyone has a better explanation I'd like to hear it.
Right-wing media feeds this agitation with provocative lies and manipulation.
If anyone has a better explanation I'd like to hear it.
Still waiting.
I don't see "gay" on the list. I guess we have no impact? So everyone was wrong to worry about gay marriage? Thought so!
I was just wondering that myself. I would like to compare 2008 to 2010 as it pertains to the gay vote. 2010 was more important than 2008. I wonder which way the gay vote swung in 2010.
Also, why these 23 variables? Why not men who own cats or women who own dogs? I'm always skeptical of graphs that seem sketchy.
Our nation is about evenly split -- Dem. vs Rep.
So the gov. can not act. So what needs to be done will not be done. So it will take years before jobs come back, if they ever do.
I hope that the fight in WI marks the awakening of the US people to the fact that they have lost control of their gov. to the forces of greed (to corporations and the rich) who/which have no loyalty to the USA. This fight will take years. By the time it is over the people will be madder than ANYONE can even IMAGINE.
I hope that this time we will lock in our victory. By this I mean-- after WWII the progressives failed to amend the Constitution to cement the lessons that had been learned into the Constitution. The forces of greed were able to make a come back, chipping away little by little, until they took over. For the last 30 years they have controlled the gov. Real wages have gone down while the rich earned trillions. Trade surplus/deficit became more and more in the red. Deficits grew. Total national debt went from 1 trillion to 14 trillion. Just about every measure of a healthy nation got worse.
After the Civil War they added 3 amendments to lock in the lesson that all men are equal. (If they had not, would the south have found a way the re-enslave the blacks?) Amendments are hard to pass. I hope that by the time we have achieved decisive majorities and won the fight we will have the confidence in ourselves to call for a Constitutional Convention to make a group of amendments to, this time, lock in our lessons.
This fight will take a long time. I may not live to see the final victory, but I know that--
the people, united, can never be defeated. We shall overcome.
makes you wonder, huh ? especially when the class who control the economy are fairly small when you count heads....
Remember, according to Rachel: "The people, united... make a better target".
:^) >>> :-/
Stolen from somebody who stole it from a friend. It pretty much says it all!
"A public union employee, a tea party activist, and a CEO are sitting at a table with a plate of a dozen cookies in the middle of it. The CEO takes 11 cookies, turns to the tea partier and says, 'Watch out for that union guy. He wants a piece of your cookie."
Lenny - that was GREAT! Made me Laugh Out Loud... : ) Really good visual.
Maybe it should be 3 dozen cookies and 35 cookies.
But I LOL too.
Perfect example! They got 98% of us fighting over crumbs.
We won’t have a 'real' Democracy, until we take questions of which RACE we are, out of voting, applications for employment , etcetera.
I suppose that would help, but we aren't a democracy anyway. We are a republic. We 'elect' people to represent us, but those people have NO legal obligation to pay attention to what we want once they are in office. They can choose to only support the ones who can guarantee them riches and power down the road.
True democracy would be -- one person; one vote... and eliminate the "middlemen" entirely...
But guess what, the Constitution does NOT allow for the above. Because of time and distance problems, back then, it made sense to 'trust' a local guy to represent your interests. Remember, communication between the states back then was slow.. like horseback or carriage was about it.
We desperately need to upgrade (America 2.0) and readjust to the fact that communication is nearly instant, now, so why stick with a system, that by design, no longer really applies ?????
Why not shut down government altogether and contract all the services out. Then use opinion polls to make laws.
The <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/23/maywood-ca-plans-to-disba_n_622098.html">City of Maywood</a> has no government at all.
The two stats, veterans and '65 and older'... these are really great targets for both parties.
Being a veteran, I spend some time at VA hospitals. The local VA used to solidly have all waiting room TV's on Fox News. Now I'm seeing more of these TV's being turned to CNN because of complaints. Interesting. Waiting room conversations are becoming more pro-liberal than before. The concept that VA hospitals may be "sold-out" to the private sector is FINALLY a talking point. It'll take time, but there is some hope there.
As for Boomers, I think a lot of them are realizing that the 'American Dream' has left them behind. Gutted retirement funds, rising expenses, loss of property, and so forth. They are a little slow about getting on the bandwagon, but it seems to be happening in some areas.
If you know some vets and some older folks, please encourage them to vote progressive. It's not like there are any valid reasons, huh ??