On Friday, the Buffalo News posted an internal poll from Tea Party candidate Jack Davis. The candidate for New York's 26th congressional district said that Democrat Kathy Hochul was polling at 44 percent, enough to win the three-way contest. Mr. Davis had himself second at 27 percent and Republican Jane Corwin at 17 percent. "[R]arely does a campaign release an internal poll as shocking" as that one, the News said.
Ever since saying that she supports Congressman Paul Ryan's budget and Medicare plan, Ms. Corwin has struggled to win a seat that should be an easy get for Republicans. Mr. Ryan has tried raising money for her, as has Florida Congressman Allen West -- who promised he'd take his hands off Medicare when there was no more Medicare.
Now two outside polls since the internal one by Mr. Davis have found Ms. Hochul ahead. With the vote happening tomorrow, Public Policy Polling puts Ms. Hochul at 42 percent, Ms. Corwin at 36 percent and Mr. Davis somewhere in the teens. Ms. Hochul's lead is outside the survey's margin of error. A second survey (pdf), from Siena College, shows Ms. Hochul at 42 percent to Ms. Corwin's 38 percent and Mr. Davis' 12. His support would seem to have been cut in half since the outside conservative groups began attack ads against him, but the disaffected seem to be breaking at least as much toward the Democrat.
In a fundraising appeal today, Ms. Hochul continues to keep expectations low. This one's still a dead heat, plus it's probably good for her to keep a grassroots tone. "Polling has us leading by 4 points, but in order to celebrate when the polls close tomorrow night, I need your help one last time," she writes. "We need to raise just $8,500 more before our final day of Get Out the Vote." In this race, even for her underfunded campaign, that's pocket change.