Talking Points Memo chart
Tonight is debate night around TRMS HQ, with the 2012 Republican field attempting to woo sunny Florida. As the New York Times puts it, Florida's patchwork quilt presents a challenge for candidates:
the immigrant-rich Miami region, the more conservative north or the retirees sprinkled around the state who carry with them the political loyalties bred elsewhere.
Even in states that might seem more homogenous, political wins come down to rolling up support in some combination of constituencies. Mitt Romney's side think he has 125,000 votes stashed away from early voting, before he started collapsing in South Carolina. Call that the "inevitability vote." But if you look at Newt Gingrich's rise in the South Carolina polls, you'll see that he blocked Mitt Romney's path to victory in constituency after constituency. From Public Policy Polling's last poll before the South Carolina vote:
Gingrich is leading with pretty much every key segment of the Republican electorate. He's up 41-21 on Romney and Santorum with Evangelicals, he has a 52-18 advantage on Romney with Tea Partiers, he leads Santorum 44-21 with 'very conservative' voters with Romney at 20%, and he's up 39-26 with men.
Dig around in the PPP survey (pdf), and you'll see that Mr. Gingrich went into the vote leading Mr. Romney 37-21 among Democrats and 26-25 among independents. He won every sprinkle on the cupcake, and then he won the primary. Two new polls out this morning show Mr. Gingrich leading in Florida by 9 points, even if the general electorate still doesn't think much of him.
(Chart: Talking Point Memo, w/embed code)
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I sure hope Gingrich gets the nomination.... there's a plethora of information out there and none of it is good.
Who can forget the Air Force One snub and ensuing shutdown of the government in retaliation!
no body can and especially Newt,
since Romneys dad came here from Mexico I would like to see his Birth cert.
well both should be happy its only republicans voting this time around, cause betting that in the general there is a big mix of voters.
i dont see Newt winning the hearts and minds of to many minority voters.
Mitt well his taxes are going to hound him until he releases about 10 years wort.
Here in California we are hoping that the nominee is Newt and that he chooses Bachmann or Perry as his running mate (more Bachmann). I am not sure what they were drinking in So. Carolina, but if they thought Newt was the best chance to beat Obama, they must of had a snootfull. This guy is going to implode before his campaign is over. As my 97 year old mother told me last week "all hubris and no humility!" She is usually right on all things political.
My 84 year old mom predicted the current economic 'depression' by any other name. Our mom's know whereof they speak.
I am in Southern California, Orange County to be more precise, and I hope Newt gets the nomination - but for the opposite reason. I find it funny to watch the Republican debates and to see how the Republican candidates paint this picture of the glory years prior to Obama, it's like they are trying to convince everyone that Obama came into power and all of the sudden there was this big socialist government thing - Obama caused the deficit, Obama caused the current debt, Obama caused me to loose my home, Obama cause my manufacturing job to go to China. First, people need to take an Econ 101 course and understand the basics of government deficit and debt, GDP, and few other terms and how they relate to one another. Second, people need to look back to history to understand how we got to where we are - after all Nixon was the President when trade talks with China took off. Third, people need to take a more active role in government - meaning more research into candidates, more understanding of the issues as a whole vs. what the issue means to them personally (government is about governing the masses not the individual), and more voicing their concerns and at the same time listening to concerns of others.
In looking at Newt's record you will see that he helped create the very thing he is trying to convince conservatives he is against. Medicare Part-D, really? Now Newt is anti-government healthcare? Moral conservative, really? With two failed marriages he is pro-family? God knows how many abortions have been made in his honor with his extra-marital affairs. Ya, I hope Newt gets the nomination.
I am an independent and I will be voting for Obama, at least as of right now.
Obama was elected to put out a fire, and all the Republicans and Conservatives blame him for the lingering smell of smoke in the air and for all the ash soot and smoke damage. There's gratitutde for ya!
Don
and even after that they the republicans still want to though gas on the hot ash to start the fire again they dont care about the house (USA)
Aye. I fear for our nation. It would take twenty years for a nation to recover that we could survive ANY of these yahoos who are to Bush what Bush was to Reagan.
It won't be twenty years. And I doubt the nation will survive.
In another topic, Ken, I was speculating on how Republican primary voters may be evaluating their candidates against Obama. I noted that there are two Obama's: the Obama who lives in the real world, and the Obama who lives in the paranoid delusions of the far right. The Republican establishment and the right-wing media have invested a lot of time and effort in the creation of the fictional Obama in an effort to motivate Republican voters against the president. But, in doing so, they may have conditioned them to select a nominee who could run an excellent campaign against an opponent who does not actually exist, and who will fail miserably against the real article.
Or, in other words: Yeah, I hope it's Gingrich, too.
And if stuff like this keeps on happening, he may just get the nomination.
I'd love to see Newt win the nomination, as I don't think he would have a chance in hell in the general election. Yes, he'd bring out the conservatives to vote for him (unlike Romney), but he'd also bring out the liberals to vote for Obama; and there's no way that the independents will vote for him. I think it would be an easy election for Obama. Please, let Newt get it. LOL
While at a local pub I overheard a conversation (not that I was listening)but I heard one say this will be the first time in my life that I will vote democrat.He went on to say,Romney is to flakey and in no way could I vote for Gingrigh.The others agreed.I dont know if they were all repubs but I hope more feel that way.
It just keeps getting better, you can't make this stuff up!
Meanwhile down in Florida the Cubans are rolling their eyes and asking why any sane person would vote for a Castro type then they register as democrats and take a friend or four along.
Looks like Romney still can't break 30%
I wonder what will happen when the field thins out a bit more, though. Santorum drops out, for instance: will some of his people finally hold their noses and go with Mitt, or will they split between Newt and Paul?
What do you mean "unless Gingrich self-destructs"? The man (for lack of a better word) has done nothing but self-destruct from day one. He's like Springtime for Hitler walking around on two legs: so horribly wrong and succeeding because of it.
Hoping the salamander gets the nod from the g.o.t.p. Would surely improve our chances of having Barack around for another 4 years. Mebbe the obstructionists in congress will get the hell out of his and the American peoples' way if the grand old tea party crashes and burns spectacularly enough.
i hope the salamander gets the nod. barack can only gain in the polls running against such a bag of scum.
A Newton Leroy nomination would be the best thing that ever happened...
...for the Democratic Party!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Of course, a Willard nomination would have just the same effect. Face it. The TeaGOP is gonna be toast in November.
Rep Paul holding the anti unnecessary war card. Israel may preemptively attack Iran before the election...undermining Obama
The racism.classism and sexism that exist in South Carolina is not subtle. I have pounded the pavement and red dirt in South Carolina during several Dem campaigns. Most recently in 2008. That woman who stood up at one of the Gingrich events and said"thank you Speaker Gingrich for putting Juan Williams in his place" Summarized the feelings of lots of white rich and poor in South Carolina,
Lots of evangelicals and others hiding racist, sexist attitudes behind alleged religious beliefs in that state. Gingrich played that card and it worked
Mean Ging played four aces in South Carolina
1. Racism/Food stamps "thank you Mr. Speaker for putting Juan Williams in his place" Mixed in with poor white working class who are more than likely receiving food stamps to make ends meet but buy the white rich Republican "you can be one of us" hogwash
2. "elite media" when King called him out on his hypocritical behavior but then King totally choked. Wondering if this was on purpose. He had to know Gingrich would flip the script. Gingrich's pattern. Blame his work, the media etc etc
3. More Classism...we don't want unions in South Carolina no way no how
4. Sexism...my behavior is not my fault
It worked
In Florida he will add the Sheldon Adelson radical right wing Jewish vote as well as the right wing Cuban vote (I have lived in Florida..not that different from South Carolina)
Might I suggest you avoid the uplandians as they are zealots of right winged persuasion and instead you could enjoy a more southerly view in the lowcountry where we are far too busy working to get into heated debates that do nothing. We do have one draw back though-rich yankees move here and try to run things.
So remind me how a serial adulterer with a long history of hypocricy, and a life on the inside of Washington politics who was drummed out of Congress by his own party and fined $300,000 who earned more than a $1,000,000 as an "historian" lobbyist, wins the GOP nomination? Oh, right, because his opponents are a demented old man who believes in the gold standard but no government really (wants to cut $1T from the budget his first year), a right wing nutter who you can't google, who wants women to be barefoot and pregnant, and a 1%=er who wears magic underwear... When Newt Gingrich is the best choice the right wing has to offer, we are all in trouble...
You might want to submit that first sentence to Brian Willams to ask Newt in tonights debate. You covered it
Hide all of this as well as using the racism, classism cards behind your alleged religious beliefs like so many other Christians. You know hide behind that cross
Uum...I am an atheist...sorry...you might even rank me an anti-theist...
I don't think that what happened in Iowa with Romney and Santorum is merely a miscalculation. We know that Romney has the backing of the party regulars and a lot of influential people on Wall Street and the banks. Considering what happened in Bush v. Gore, I would not be surprised if Romney wins with a lot of absentee and early ballots. If Newt were to win Florida, Romney's candidacy would be seriously in question. Romney has ties to Wall Street while Gingrich has none. And that is what makes Romney's backers nervous.
Where the hell are those votes from 8 precincts and why is the MSM silent. Well except for Rachel
Isn't this the party that is SO concerned about voter fraud? And they lose track of 8 precincts in their own primary?
Isn't this the party that is SO concerned about voter fraud? And they lose track of 8 precincts in their own primary?
and think this is the party that pulls votes out their 4th point of contacts when they need them think Wisconsin as a recent example. and they lose 8 precincts LOL next it will be well they were small precincts.
I'd really like to understand these "values voters" because between Mitt & Newt - there's still "no worthy candidate"?!? These people are like monkey hear no evil, speak no evil, see no evil - gee, and they vote?!? WTH?!?
Awesome blog about Newt at Margaret & Helen blog. That lady is freakin' awesome, I love her!
http://margaretandhelen.wordpress.com/2012/01/23/the-passion-of-the-newt/
I wonder if the editor knew what he was doing here:
http://scienceblogs.com/casaubonsbook/Obama%20and%20Newt.jpg
If you are depressed with the thought of Newt becoming Pres, you might like to watch my video about his three marriages at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQSsMRe6BJE
There are chickens in it. Everybody loves chickens!
There is a little about Santorum in the end!
The questions I want Brian Williams to ask the candidates
Even though CNN's John King delivered his first question in a clumsy way do you think it appropriate to blame what you call the "elite media" for your hypocritical and immoral behavior having to do with your serial adulterous behavior while at the same time pointing at President Clinton for similar behavior?
Is it really appropriate to blame your work, the media etc for this hypocritical behavior?
Is it really appropriate or helpful to play the racist, sexist, classist, elite media aces that you played in South Carolina in Florida or any where else? You and your team know what I am talking about. Foodstamps "thank you Mr. Speaker for putting Juan Williams in his place" card. Sickening just sickening
Is it acceptable to hide racism, sexism, classism while hiding behind any alleged religious beliefs?
Questions for Romney:
Why do you seem incapable of turning to the 99% crowd and acknowledging that they have legitimate concerns?
Given the hypocritical attitude of so many so called Christians why do you think it seems unacceptable for you to embrace your compassionate conservative stances on making health care affordable for all?
Kathleen
Dayton Ohio
You have to wonder how much preparation King put into the event. The question was terrible because it allowed Newt too much leeway to go off on a tangent. Media people are supposed to know how to ask questions and the way to phrase the questions.
King is a cream puff! hows his state of the union going? dana bash must be so happy with her man.
My questions would be more blunt. A) do you plan to serve your tea party, your Birchers or your zealots most?
B)Would you be willing to take a Civics test and have the results made public?
The questions should have been:
Should a candidates private life be considered by the voters?
If yes, then should we consider your private life?
If no, then why not?
It is fact that you and Representative Hyde were conducting an extramarital affair while the House was impeaching President Clinton. Also, you made "family values" a campaign issue. Do you think it is hypocrisy? If no, then why not?
Maybe the question should be....no question to Mr. Gingrich. Make him stand there until another candidate takes a whack at him. I think they would be glad to do the honors....
I think my online TV listings page has it wrong. Or does it?
For 9 PM Eastern, it has "Fear Factor: Leeches & Shaved Heads & Tear Gas, Oh My!"
Nah, we're not to that point yet. If they're still battling it out at the end of April, maybe.
The listing has "Rock Center" at 10.
(Obviously their error, not yours.)
There is a story about Gingrich surging that I haven't seen told yet. I'm not a reporter so I'm not sure what the right framing is for it, but here is what I am seeing and wanted to pass it along.
The primary elements of this story are Newt surge, Newt speaking with the pitch of right wing punditry, and Fox News training the base to respond to the stimulus.
“Gingrich owns the best dog whistle in the race." (more like a fog horn the way he uses it actually)
For a long time I felt that the Republican base were idiots. I've begun to transition from that belief. I now see them more as Stockholm Syndrome survivors. These are people that have had messaging thrown at them for a very long time that is Goebbels good. With the advent of right wing radio and TV their sources of information have been greatly reduced to only outlets that play to the story they have grown to embrace. A good example of this is the two different studies that show Fox viewers to be less informed than people who watch no news. Since that isn't a natural state, it must be manipulated. When a population/individual is that altered it invokes images of victims for me, not people inherently evil.
There has been some similar coverage on things like who is the most powerful republican. We hear names like Rush, O'Rielly, Nordquist, Luntz. Mostly a group of talking heads with some issue folks thrown in. Rarely is a politician mentioned in the coverage. It begs the question who is more powerful the media or the party. In the surge of Gingrich we see evidence that the media is the more powerful at this point in time. We also hear stories about the anger on the right driving the surge, but to be honest I haven't heard anything that resonated as causal.
The right wing sound machine has set in motion a Pavlovian response from the Republican base manifested in the Gingrich surge. We hear people say "the base wants someone to fight the fight", or that "they are angry". The hostile vitriolic diatribes that Gingrich specializes in mirror the same hate speak of TV and radio right wing pundits. He SOUNDS like what they listen to all day. I think he is a very real candidate now, (having NOTHING to do with his positions or policies) he has found the messaging sweet spot that is pitch perfect to the personalities in right wing media. Look for him to continue to sound more and more like Rush/Hannity/Coulter et al as this race moves along. the big open question is how it will play to non southern states.”
There seems to me to be a great research article/story in this. Being able to tie behavioral response to preconditioning received from the media would be interesting and just maybe a weapon to begin the process of dismantling the machine that has created it. At this point I assume that establishment Republicans have realized how powerful Fox is, they are trying to use it to attack Gingrich, but I think until recently they misunderstood the full extent of what Fox had accomplished. The depth of the conversation. Only now is the establishment worried that the monster they have created will eat the women and children and destroy the village.
Again I am not a writer, and there are MANY ways this story could be framed, and to be honest I may be in the minority in thinking the Pavlov framing is interesting, but there is still a story here. The primary elements are Newt surge, Newt speaking with the pitch of right wing punditry, and Fox News training the base to respond to the stimulus.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/23/strongest-solar-storm-sin_0_n_1223841.html