At this point in the nominating process, it stands to reason that Republican voters would start finding the field of candidates more appealing. The presidential hopefuls have been available for nearly a year; GOP voters have gotten to know them and their agendas pretty well; and the various party constituencies should have settled on a favorite by now.
And yet, as the Pew Research Center found, rank-and-file Republicans are finding themselves less satisfied with their presidential choices, not more. As the Pew report, released yesterday, explained, "In fact, more Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters say the GOP field is only fair or poor (52%) than did so in early January (44%)."
Pew Research Center
In other words, this field of candidates isn't just unappealing to the party's own voters; it's increasingly unappealing.
Or as Paul Begala recently put it, "[W]hen I look at the economy, I think Obama can't win, but when I look at the Republicans, I think he can't lose. The economy is starting to get better; the Republicans aren't."
This is usually about the time when some on the right -- see Douthat, Kristol, et al -- begin to argue that there's still an ever-so-small chance that some "white knight" candidate will come rushing in to save the party. In case this isn't already obvious, Mitch Daniels and Jeb Bush supporters can forget it: too many filing deadlines have passed, making it "effectively impossible" for a late entrant to have a realistic shot at the nomination.
And what about talk of a brokered/deadlocked Republican convention? That's not going to happen, either.
There are four candidates left -- Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul -- and one of them will win the 2012 Republican nomination, whether the party's voters like it or not.
Update: Kevin Drum asks whether these low ratings are common or unusual. As a point of comparison, at this point four years ago, only 31% of Republican voters considered the GOP presidential field fair or poor. That's 21 points lower than now, which suggests this field is much less popular with the party.
Leave a Comment:
Less Government sounds great until you want something. These guys offer nothing. With nothing to offer, the only thing that distinguishes one candidate from another is their personal flaws. And there are unexplored oceans to be explored there.
I have to agree. I am an independent voter myself. Truth is, I wanted Hillary to begin with. Obama has not been Terrible at all. In fact as an independent voter. I think hes done a rather decent job. And unlike previous fiscal republicans he has held on to campaign promises. I dont think we need to refresh again of everything hes done in 2010-2011. Not to mention the Big 3 Turn around?
Newt Just bother's me with the way he looks. He doesn't look presidential to me. We already know hes practically a joke. Thrown out of office pretty much.
Captain Frothy, er I mean pRick Santorum doesn't even have the understanding of a majority of American. He is way way way way to connected to his faith. Just a tad much. Like Scientologist mad. People think the government control's them now. Wait for a Santorum to just hit you in the face. Every liberty you love will be gone. The Gay Liberation movement has come a long way. The most costly counter-productive and destructive policy ever to be made a law is finally gone. Santorum would probably agree to Making homosexuality not just Illegal, but punishable by death. He is a disgusting waste of flesh. And i as a Pennsylvanian, Just like so many other thousands of us here awaiting our Primary. We cant wait to Boo him off the stage like we did his Senatorial run.
More of the same from the GOP. They are the most ridiculous collection of radicals and un-American extremists ever devised for a presidential race. There are 55 million registered Republicans in the country, yet they cannot find one that is qualified or competent to be president. No ordinary voter watching these candidates would consider them to be representative of their interests or their views. This is a tiny minority of Tea Party activists trying to rule the country. Very disturbing... http://www.sunstateactivist.org
It seems like they have decided that Mitt is "electable" and will coalesce around him like the good soldiers they are.
I'm looking forward to lots of commercials featuring dogs on the roofs of cars come autumn.
Poor GOP, sold out to the fringe
Now, it's freedom they want to impinge
No more choice, no more science
No more thought, no noncompliance!
It's enough to make a decent person cringe.
Well done!
@Thorn:
Much thanks!
Bach in the 60s, the John Birch Society was the radical right fringe, (and started by Koch brothers' Dad). Somehow the moderate Republicans forced them out of the Republican party and the JBS has been a nutcase fringe element that was out in left field, with no power. Somehow the JBS got control of the Repub through the Tea Parties, i am guessing. And they have pulled the rug to the far right, and it will be hell getting it back to center. Hopefully they will get it back to center or we're all in trouble. I'm wondering how they got the JBS out of the Repubs back then. We need to do it again.
Great use of the "new" 3 speak!
Yes, the question of the hour for my very conservative loved ones is rapidly approaching - Who will be that White Knight riding in on his White Stallion just in time to snatch the nomination and whisk the presidency away from that interloper in the White House? Who? Who? Maybe Ralph Nader in a Republican cloak?
Hey Republicans - you got nothing! -Kevo
Romney/Gingrich money piled high and ready
While everyone else finds life quite unsteady
They rail against foreclosure
But, never make the disclosure
That they're both invested in Fannie and Freddie.
Your poetic spirit is catching…
@Bob:
Thank you.
DO they honestly believe that either of these two are going to stand up to the test of time AND both have proven they and thier multi-million dollar Supreme Court approved Super Pacs are going to get nastier and nastier. I can only hope they will keep spending and then some of the Super Donor Millions will dry up. OMG.... These two are better than Laurel and Hardy.
I thought that the GOP figured the economy would remain stagnant until the election so they did not take seriously their candidates...assuming a republican would get in merely based on the economic condition ( Maybe the reason many other potential candidates decided not to run now and sit it out until '16). Now it is showing That things might be improving...and so there is a panic that the available 'nominees' are not going to inspire as much of the independent vote.
In this atmosphere...there will be a strong movement toward voter restriction/suppression which already we are seeing.
The republican electorate sounds as though they're thinking "familiarity breeds contempt" - I feel that way too!! Can we all just admit that these "candidates" along with their party HAVE NO IDEAS about GOVERNING or turning the economy around!! As a nation we have been living with the American version of "austerity" for the last 3 decades, and what do WE have to show for it: economic inequality of historic proportions, jobs that hemorrhaged to low/no wage markets, millions unemployed, a decimated educational system - that republicans keep trying to "privatize", a military-industrial-complex that is bankrupting US and enriching the plutocrats, millions without healthcare, etc.!
The truth is President Obama is at least trying to turn it around despite an obstructionist Congress (both sides of the aisle), and we have people running for office on the republican side that DON'T HAVE A CLUE, period!! It isn't just their "personal lives", but their character over these years, their inability to even understand compromise, and the fact that they truly are out of touch with Americans (99%)!! The only "office" that these people need to hold should come with bars so that they cannot get out and further decimate this nation and her people!!
Here's to President Obama, just to be fair
He got Bin Laden, I do declare!
But, a weak economy
Is bad for the gastronomy
It's 2012, better beware!
When it comes to the flip flop, there's always Mitt
Who changes his mind more oft than he'll admit
By the times his head has turned
We must all be very concerned
It's still facing frontwards, isn't it?
I hope no one minds if I rub my hands in glee.
Mitt is such a weird guy. Did anybody see him singing America the Beautiful, I think yesterday.
And then, there's serial adulterous brute
Who goes by the shameless name of Newt
Drummed out of the House
For being such a louse
Like Sarah, he's in it for the loot.
So sorry. That first line should have read:
"And then, there's that serial adulterous brute"
Good save!
Constantly pushing back on the current Administration only goes so far.
At some point you need to bring forth something tangible that people can wrap their hearts and minds around.
The fact is, the vast majority of Americans of every political stripe think the #1 priority is jobs and the economy. And while that's what the GOP keeps saying, their ACTIONS indicate something completely different.
What bills are they SUPPORTING? Everything EXCEPT measures that will create jobs and grow the economy.
They have also made a strategic decision on several occasions to run the economy over a cliff while attempting to get their way. If what they wanted created jobs or boosted the economy, then maybe that would make sense. But their actions basically said, "we don't care about jobs OR the economy! If you don't do what we want, we're going to do something that will CUT MORE JOBS and HURT THE ECONOMY.
Their next big battle is going to be to find some way to pass the Keystone pipeline, no matter what anybody thinks or how destructive it might be to the environment. Remember, these are the same people who want to dismember the EPA so nobody can fine Big Oil for polluting our wilderness. They SAY it'll create jobs ... yeah, in 5-10 years. It's so far away from what investing in infrastructure will do for IMMEDIATE job creation it's ludicrous.
These folks are looking more and more like a vaudeville act, believing that people can't see through their hijinks. They're nothing but smoke and mirrors, and it's becoming painfully obvious to just about everybody!
I kind of wish Mitch Daniels really could run. I'm sick of listening to his supporters acting like he'd be great at the job. The man's screwed up Indiana so much that as soon as he left his protective bubble of bribed sycophants he'd be torn to shreds. He pretends he's not doing it for his family. It's really because he has no chance in hell of winning. Selling a toll road to foreign investors for 99 years alone would lose him a few *Red* states, never mind the rest of the country.
I'm not at all surprised that they more voters find out about these guys the more they hate them. What's there to actually *like*? And after 20,000 "debates," all that's left to do is stand up there and insult each other. Actually, I'm not sure that there was ever much more than that to begin with, but now people have been forced to see it. And not only is that utterly boring, it's childish and annoying.
My Republican father is figuring on not even voting this election because there's no one on his side worth electing.
I'm hoping the same apathy that lost the Dems in the last election hits the Republicans hard this time.
I think of all the GOP field has had to offer these passed several years have taken a healthy realistic look at all things available. I myself was and started as a Republican, G.W. Bush his views and policies helped sway me to becoming an independent voter. I disagree with tax changes Bush and his cronies made and the debt they have caused. Now the GOP has added even more not so great for the economy establishment and non establishment candidates with even worse policy ideas than did Bush have. I can say now under no uncertain terms that I have totally made the leap to being a democrat.
In closing I would like to thank the GOP for opening my eyes, I no longer walk around with my eyes wide shut. I see things in a whole new perspective so I have to thank you for that. I feel like a real American with eyes wide open, thanks to all of you GOP.
I am sure the GOPTea™ is pleased they have made you so happy!
I disagree with tax changes Bush and his cronies made and the debt they have caused.
Conflictingly involved in oil production
Bush lied about weapons of mass destruction
One thing was certain
It was all for Halliburton
And, to the wealthy he bestowed tax deduction.
It's highly unlikely that this would happen, but here's what I would LIKE to see: Newt the Gingrich gets the nomination, but while at the RNC meets a hottie whom he just can't keep his slithering pseudopods off. For the time being, he manages to keep it a secret. His running mate, Sarah Palin - yes, that Sarah Palin, resurrected from cable hell and reanimated using a hair dryer, krazy glue, and lipstick - discovers his dark secret and blackmails him into naming her husband and daughter to cabinet posts if elected.
Come October, however, the MSNBC/CNN joint investigative team comprising Rachel Maddow, Anderson Cooper, and Don Lemon, learn of the Gingrich's affair and run a dual-network white paper entitled, 'Newt Gingrich: Three Down, One At The Altar', diminishing his chances of election. Yet, somehow, he manages to get almost exactly the number of votes as there are members of the Tea Party...and AshleyMadison.com...combined.
Yeah, it'll probably be Romney in the GOP slot come November, but I can dream. At least until Santorum wins in 2016 when all my gay dreams get outlawed. (Kayak.com > Gay Destinations > Somewhere Not Republican Lead > ANYwhere Not Republican Lead > Finland) *sigh*
@Free:
His running mate, Sarah Palin - yes, that Sarah Palin, resurrected from cable hell and reanimated.....
There was this hussy from up in Wasilla
Who had the grace and manners of Godzilla
You Democrats beware!
You're in the cross hair!
As for common sense, not a scintilla.
nicely wicked.
@Bob:
I've got a million of 'em!
Santorum has this Medieval perception
To which he claims, there is no exception
Total submission!
Hail the Inquisition!
The dope wants to outlaw contraception.
love your broken rhyme rule – you prove the exception. Totally unique.
The Republicans problem is they got in bed with the Tea Party and instead of the Republicans manipulating the TP, it is the TP that is manipulating the Republicans. I can't say I feel sorry for them. You get what you vote for and in this case, the Republicans got the TP. Now, the regular party organization which represents Wall Street and the banks wants to take back the party, but it is too late. It will take a full election cycle (4 years) to shake out the TP at the federal and state level. But the Republicans will have to make a difficult choice in this election cycle. Either support the TP candidate or lose the seat for 2 years.
The GOP has courted various grassroots groups since Nixon's campaign cozied up to the Fundamentalist Christians. That link grew stronger during Ronnie RayGun's administration, but I think it cooled a bit during Bush 41's term. He was more Old Guard Northeast Patrician GOP than Reagan or his son George Whatthehellhaveyoudonenow?!?! Bush.
I had the chance to meet Bush 41 when he was Veep and I was in the Army. He actually seemed to care about soldiers and looked me in the eye when we chatted and shook hands. I think he's a decent human being, and following the Kosher proscription about having milk from a cow and meat from its calf in the same meal, I'll refrain from commenting on the son.
So yeah, I have no sympathy for the GOP. I so wanted to make a comment about strange bedfellows, but I also wanted to keep Newt out of this post.
You are correct. This is a battle between the Old Guard and the TP for control of the party. If Romney wins the nomination, he will have to name a hard core conservative, probably from the South, for VP to get the Christian conservative and Tea Party votes. That may be enough to scare voters away from the Republicans.
This is a battle between the Old Guard and the TP for control of the party.
The Baggers (KKK) consistently grouse
Against a brother occupying the White House
Their side arms they will bear
"Get government off my Medicare!"
It's racism they really espouse.
Under Ron Paul, government on hold
Life in chaos, everything uncontrolled
There will be a lot of crying
When we are all buying
Unpasteurized milk with gold.
Of course they are disssatified.. They have a bunch of losers running for office. Take Newt for instance, Newt's personal life says a lot about the man and his abilities to be stable and loyal. Could you immagine any woman wanting to vote for Newt?
I have made a humorous video that I believe shows how his wives must have felt about his loyalties. You may see it at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQSsMRe6BJE
Hope you enjoy!
I don't see this trend improving even AFTER the election.
Plutocrats such as the Koch Brothers and their flunkes, the Tea Partiers push Republicans to the right, encouraging them to abandon most of the 99%. It's VERY expensive to get more than 49 of those 99% to vote against their own interests, thus a need for massive cash to pay for media blitzes for persuasion. This becomes an inescapable vicious cycle.
The insistence on lockstep votes instituted by Tom DeLay and followed up by Mitch McConnell insures no return of the GOP to any moderate state and it won't surprise me if Maine has had their fill of their moderate Senators that are bound and gagged, fitted with cement overshoes and kicked off the dock. They aren't ALLOWED to speak for Maine's citizens, so why does Maine elect them to be representatives? That clock is running out if Maine's brains aren't absolute mush. Newt grew a Republican majority in 1994 by installing moderate Republican Senators in New England. The likes of Trent Lott and Tom DeLay don't understand the game of numbers that is Congressional rule.
Republicans look the other way over each others slip ups. Larry Craig, David Vittar, Cunningham... the list is huge. ALL given a pass. Compare that to the door shown to Jefferson, Spitzer, and McGreevey. Democrats get out of line... they feel it. This makes the Republicans crow with joy and leaves behind a stronger and stronger opponent.
The back bench of the Republican Party is cluttered with wannabes just as corrupt and craven as the men in power now. If the American population tires of criminals running their government, the GOP will be sidelined potentially for decades. Plutocracy does not go away without a fight, so the Republicans will find it a LONG slog back to respectability.
My prediction now is that Obama wins more states in 2012 than he did in 2008, barring lower turnout by voter ID laws in some states dominated by Republicans. Mitt Romney hit quicksand with the release of his tax returns and the narrative after he secures the nomination, is more calls for him to release even more years of tax returns. He only released two years and you wonder what is left out? Tax fairness now becomes the issue of the 2012 election campaign.
Will the Obama campaign use the classic TV ad with Romney morphing into George W. Bush? His name is never mentioned on the campaign trail and although their policies are the same or more extreme, the candidates want people to forget what Republican policies did to this country.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie plans to be the running mate and unless he loses some weight, he sinks the ticket. Southerners are not going to elect to Northern moderates and a Mormon. The Republican party in the South has moved so far to the right that there is no way any of them can be on the national ticket. They are beginning to take the region for granted and position themselves in the kooky fringe.
It's as tough to rhyme Alinsky
As is the case with Brzezinski
Yet, Newt with all his gall
Goes constantly after Saul
With the obsession of a Kaczynski (Unabomber).