The general trend on initial unemployment claims over the last few months has been largely encouraging, despite occasional setbacks, and today's report is consistent with all the recent data.
Initial jobless claims reached a four-year low a few weeks ago, and have remained effectively unchanged since.
The number of people who applied for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 2,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 351,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch estimated claims would total 350,000. Claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 353,000 from 351,000. The four-week average of claims, meanwhile, dropped 5,500 to 354,000, keeping it at a four-year low. The monthly average smoothes out seasonal quirks and provides a more accurate view of labor-market trends.
In terms of metrics, keep in mind, when these jobless claims fall below the 400,000 threshold, it's considered evidence of an improving jobs landscape. When the number drops below 370,000, it suggests jobs are actually being created rather quickly.
We've now dropped below 370,000 for four consecutive weeks, and five of the last seven weeks.
And with that, here's the chart, showing weekly, initial unemployment claims going back to the beginning of 2007. (Remember, unlike the monthly jobs chart, a lower number is good news.) For context, I've added an arrow to show the point at which President Obama's Recovery Act began spending money.
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While jobless claims may be hovering at four year lows, this time is different. For the first time in the past 3 decades, the number of long-term unemployed Americans is at 40 percent of all unemployed as shown here:
http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2012/03/persistently-high-unemployment-in.html
There are several solutions to this problem, including changes to unemployment insurance however, as shown in the article, lowering corporate taxes is the least efficient way to create additional jobs.
Nicky is correct. A good plot would show a plot of U1 through U6.
It is grim. If an election is about honest debate, we should not be drinking the kind of kool aid Benen is serving up.
While I'm happy that the number of jobless claims are falling, I hate to be a wet blanket and remind people that gas is currently hovering @$4-$5/gal. and even those of US with jobs (and not driving H3 Hummers) are griping about filling up the tank - when in the he-- is Congress going to do something serious - you know like funding infrastructure & transportation projects to really encourage growth in the economy?!?!?
better trolls please!
If you bothered to look at Nicky's link, it was hardly a GOP talking point post. It emphasizes the CBO's point that much more vigorous government spending is needed.
Thanks to the GOP initiated meltdown assisted by what Clinton calls his biggest error (repealing Glass Steagal), 8 million jobs were lost.
Job growth is barely ahead of population growth, so did those 8 million unemployed people magically disappear? No. They are found in the discouraged unemployed- the U5 and U6 statistics.
You can find them there in the form of statistics at the bls.gov site, or in the form of bodies sleeping under bridges.
I don't have any interest in helping the GOP out with their talking points, but it is cowardice to participate in a conspiracy of silence on the profundity of America's labor crisis. Wages have stagnated since the 70s, and it is not just because all the wealth from our stunning GDP growth during the same period has gone to the plutocracy. This is not an equitable distribution of income problem though that is a small part of it. Beyond short term spending, we need to aggressively attack our enormous structural challenges- and higher education only chips away at a fraction of it.
Higher education is no solution because current high tech economic activity has a very high worker to consumer ratio. Twitter for example serves 240 million users with just 300 workers. That makes for very high profit ratios, but it kills the Henry Ford principle. If an economy is not employing enough people, there are few people with money to consume.
Martin Ford's book talks about this part of the problem: Lights in the Tunnel. Robert Riech remarked on the same horrifying problem in an anecdote about opening a new manufacturing plant in his book Aftershock.
Automation and outsourcing labor intensive work is aggressively reducing the pool of money needed for consumption. As this pool is pumped dry, the economy gets into a negative feedback loop.
Recent institutionalized articles regarding unemployment applications misrepresent the severity of the employment crisis and only suggest less people are losing their jobs. We need new job production.
Finding the Unemployment Rate:The Census Bureau does a survey of 60,000 households every month asking if household occupancies are employed, looking for work etc, and the Census Bureau doesn’t verify the information’s validity.
- 3.4 million yearly college graduates enter the workforce(twice the number of college grads than new jobs in 2011)
- 150k new jobs added monthly on average to the workforce- The US needs 125k new jobs a month solely for population growth- The US needs 321k new jobs a month for 5 years to bring us pre-recessionMoreover, there are 23million total unemployed along with the 9million jobs lost in ’08-’09 recession.
Long-term unemployment insurance should be extended and US companies who moved their operations overseas should foot the bill. This is a unemployment crisis. Call a spade a spade.
Caution here ~ this goes by a Census Bureau Survey (that doesn't verify validity) and it doesn't account for all those that have fallen off the unemployment rolls because they have timed out.
Economy is getting better in some sectors but we should not stand on this particular laurel or we will soon find ourselves on the ground again!
What is the problem folks? Herman Cain told you-if you are poor it is your fault. The other Candidates say the economy is Obama's fault and then they start preaching against contraception or regulations. You should simply shrug it off and take your kids out of school so they can get a job mowing lawns or cleaning toilets.
So why worry?Just vote the bums out and hope the world wide economy makes the needed adjustments.In the meantime cook those rats well and strain that stumpwater good.
Because of the Stamp Tax that Congress is collecting from the USPS we could see a loss of jobs of over 100,000 jobs. An increase in unemployment is imminent.