Because of the Department of Labor's annual revision of initial unemployment claims, the new report forced a subtle shift in perspective, but the news was nevertheless encouraging.
The number of Americans who filed requests for jobless benefits fell by 5,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 359,000, the U.S. Labor Department said Thursday. The latest data includes the government's annual seasonal-adjustment revisions extending back five years, which have resulted in a small increase in weekly claims. The number of new applications for benefits last week, for example, was originally reported at 348,000.
The revisions now put last week's level of claims at 364,000, a 4.6% increase. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch projected claims would fall to 345,000 in the week ended March 24, but those estimates did not factor in the revisions. The average of new claims over the past four weeks, meanwhile, dropped by 3,500 to 365,000, a four-year low.
The same metrics still apply: when jobless claims fall below the 400,000 threshold, it's considered evidence of an improving jobs landscape, and when the number drops below 370,000, it suggests jobs are actually being created rather quickly.
And with that, here's the chart -- which reflects the revised, seasonably-adjusted data -- showing weekly, initial unemployment claims going back to the beginning of 2007. (Remember, unlike the monthly jobs chart, a lower number is good news.) For context, I've added an arrow to show the point at which President Obama's Recovery Act began spending money.
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Despite several years of aggressive, coordinated efforts by Republicans, unemployment numbers and the economic future remain stubbornly optimistic. So we can probably expect to be hearing a lot about birth certificates, birth control pills and dirty movies in the near future.
I keep wondering, Chris, why Republicans are always so obsessed with dirty movies and people having consentual sex with each other.
Because they are religious perverts. Don't you know, they are the only one's that can watch porn, have 5 wives and affairs going on at the same time, i.e. Newt, and they are only allowed to strap the family dog to the roof of the car and make it sick, i.e. Romney...they are only allowed to have abortions, i.e. Santorum, and they are the only one's allowed to walk the Appalachian Trail, i.e. Sanford, SC.
Charley-James, just look at the people driving these policies. Are they (generally) young, good-looking, attractive, and available people - i.e., people likely to be sexually active? It seems to me that at least some of the moral positions taken by the right may arise from sexual frustration. I wonder if there are any data on this, other than data related to sexual abuse by the most sexually frustrated demographic of all - Catholic priests.
Both of them, in different ways, show them a totally alien world.
The jobs picture does, indeed, continue to look good even if recovery progress is very slow - but my guess is that Republicans will again call for cutting spending and focus once more on the non-existent debt and deficit problem.
This is the wrong time for austerity, as Dr. Paul Krugman, Dean Baker, Mark Thoma and other prominent economists assert repeatedly. Just look at Britain which is sliding back into a second recession thanks to the budget cutting of Prime Minister David Cameron. If anything, passing the highway act in the US will help ensure that the recovery not only continues but picks up steam. Of course, that's the last thing the GOP wants eight months before an election. It'd rather give billions in tax breaks to the oil industry which doesn't need them rather than fix our roads and bridges which are in a desperate state of disrepair.
How will Faux news spin this?
If it is like this under Obama just Imagine what President McCain and Vice president Palin would have done .
Spinny enough for you.
The same way they always do, Pinky: ignore it.
Of course, if pressed they'll echo Rush etc. and claim that falling unemployment is due to people giving up all hope
If this continues to the elections, the Republicans will lose. The economy and jobs issues were the Republican themes for this election year. Romney can't seriously run on a platform that the economy is doing better but he can do a better job of fixing the economy by going back to the Bush policies. Voters won't buy that line and it will remind them of how the economic mess started.
If this continues to the elections, the Republicans will lose.
Don't be so confident . The Billion dollar slime machine hasn't kicked in yet.
John Kerry got Swift Boated ...
You forget that the masses are easily swayed by what they see on their TEEVEE , especially if it is non stop 7- 24 negative adds .
I live in Florida and the Kochs and Rick Scott douchebag governor bought the election in just that way
Buried the Dems with negative ads starting way before Scott was even running . Strap in its going to be ugly.
People tend to vote their pocketbooks and they will reason that since the economy is getting better, then there is no reason to vote for an unknown quantity. The ugliness of ads may work against the Republicans because the voters do not hold Republicans in very high regard. They will need to argue why people should reelect them and that does not look good for the House.
Dems will be hard to beat if Unemployment rate drops below 8%. Right now it's 8.3% and has been falling pretty steadily since Sept 2009.
BTW, compare the above chart with the Dow Jones Index for the same period. It's almost an exact mirror (inverse) image, with a trough where this one peaks. One more metric Repubs will find hard to argue with - but only if THE DEMS POINT IT OUT!
When it comes to unemployment it’s been a tale of two recessions, with level of education playing an unprecedented role in whether you’ve been pink slipped or not. Getting a degree from High Speed Universities is the only solution
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