Campaigning in Wisconsin yesterday, Mitt Romney seemed well aware of the recent polling trend. "We have work to do," the Republican said, "to make sure we take our message to the women of America."
The available evidence, however, suggests American women have already heard that message, and they're not especially impressed.
A new USA Today/Gallup poll shows President Obama leading Romney among registered voters, 49% to 45%, and while that margin is clearly narrow, it's also the president's largest lead in the 2012 race thus far. Arguably more interesting, however, is Obama's edge in the nation's 12 most competitive swing states, and the gender gap fueling the president's advantage.
President Obama has opened the first significant lead of the 2012 campaign in the nation's dozen top battleground states, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, boosted by a huge shift of women to his side.
In the fifth Swing States survey taken since last fall, Obama leads Republican front-runner Mitt Romney 51%-42% among registered voters just a month after the president had trailed him by two percentage points.
Here's a chart I put together, showing the Obama-vs-Romney matchup in these swing states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginiam and Wisconsin), going back over the last several months.
Maddow Blog chart based on Gallup data
Note, however, that the boost in the president's standing isn't just a natural evolution, caused by an improving economy. As USA Today's article explained, "The biggest change came among women under 50." Consider this stunning shift: since mid-February, Obama's lead over Romney among women under the age of 50 has gone from 5 points to 30 points, which has helped turn the president's modest deficit against Romney into a healthy lead.
Overall, Romney leads Obama among all men by one point, while Obama leads Romney among all women by 18 points. As a point of reference, in the 2008 election, Obama beat McCain among women by 12 points.
I won't pretend to be a master political strategist, but I'll go out on a limb here and argue that trying to restrict contraception access, mandating medically-unnecessary ultrasounds, vowing to get rid of Planned Parenthood, and enabling Rush Limbaugh may not have been the smartest election-year strategy for the GOP.
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In RepublicanLand, Women are the new Black.
John Lennon wrote and performed the song Women Are The N****** Of The World and the Republican regressives want to make sure it stays that way!!! at least here in the USA.
As GOP arrogance grows, more and more people are being left behind. Today it is women, the poor, unions, Hispanics, the elderly, those seeking and needing education, and those who believe in freedom of choice of lifestyle and sexuality. If they haven't marginalized you yet, just wait!!!
did I miss this week's 'Chronicling Mitt Romney's Mendacity' column?
Read any previous column - the lies stay pretty much the same - the economy is worse, the debt is doubled (although recently I've heard Romney state that in a pretty truthful manner - the the debit WOULD be doubled by the end of a second term) - that the stimulus didn't work. But no alternative.
Romney is in a hole in his showdown with Obama before he even officially captures the Republican Party's presidential nomination. The GOP has lost women as an electorate for this election year and possibly beyond. The short-sighted and radical agenda of the GOP in congress and at the state level to attack the rights of women in America has torn the party apart and made it almost certain that Barack Obama wil win another term in the White House unless something changes dramatically between now and November. http://www.sunstateactivist.org
I think the cat is already out of the bag. They really can't fix it before November, they can only hope for an epidemic of amnesia, and the dems can only hope for an epidemic of common sense.
Shake the etch-a-sketch
Obviously Steve we are sharing the same limb! They have shot themselves in the foot. Now every answer that Romney gives is about the economy. Doesn't matter what the question is, the answer is about the economy getting worse and Obama's failed Presidency. Next question, same answer.
Apparently at an appearance with Scott Walker, Walker talked about how the economy in Wisconsin is great and he's responsible, and Romney talked about how the economy in Wisconsin is terrible and it's Obama's fault.
Good times.
Just watch... I saw the trend starting this morning (on Mourning Joe) with Mrs Mendacious Mitt being paraded as the common touch that Mitt needs ... see we gots wimmens . Before we get on that bandwagon , lets examine how the Mormans regard women .
I know it is too late for 2012 but women need to organize nationwide to seek congressional seats in 2016 and on the state level in 2014. The GOP will be marching out their Palin-esque mannequins again so let's find some alternatives that hold their liberties sacred.
Yeah, we need more governors like Jan Brewer and Niki Haley.
And don't forget Congresspeople like Michele Bachmann, not to mention Sharron Angle.
I'll run. Just be sure to check on me now and then to make sure I'm not being hypnotized. Or bribed by lobbyist. That much money could possibly have a damaging effect on my moral fiber. I do need a new wardrobe though. They would definately have to have the water checked out first before I drank from that fountain. I would definately need the help of the American People, just to keep me in check. I'm terrible at Math though, so I don't know what the Budget would look like. One good thing I'm afraid to fly so, that should cut down use of the Corporate jet or helicopter. (Chris Christy) I have a checkered past ....forget about it.
'trying to restrict contraception access, mandating medically-unnecessary ultrasounds, vowing to get rid of Planned Parenthood, and enabling Rush Limbaugh may not have been the smartest election-year strategy for the GOP.' I can't imagine what they will 're-set'. I for one, don't TRUST them and there is nothing they can say to ever change my vote. It wasn't just the CONGRESS that tried to screw women, it was the REPUBLICAN governors that thought they could do a stealth 'screw'. They are not done no matter WHAT they say. It is how they THINK about women, not any political spin.
Man the GOP still think it's the 60s. Also once Obama starts campaging for real the difference will be clear. OBAMA 12!!
Obama starts campaging for real the
difference will be clearRepublican slime and lie machine will go into high gear ... haven't seen the Obama Raised gas prices ad by Rove & Co ? It will be a close race no matter what as both Parties worship at the alter of the UNDECIDEDS, people too stupid to see a difference between the two parties who are swayed by negative ads two days before the election.This compounded by voter suppression has me very very worried .
I propose that the gap with women is even larger than this. I believe many women are reluctant to speak about this openly but in the privacy of the voting booth they will be free to listen to their heart. No glares from peers and husbands to keep them 'in their place'.
This is what Repulican's do when elected. They may say it's all about jobs, the economy etc but it's not it's about their social agenda. When republican says it's a moral issue, I want to ask who's morals? I hate that they think that their morals are better than mine. Look if you don't want to use birth control or think abortion is evil. then fine don't use it and don't have one. But to say that women need to understand what they are doing to their bodies and need government to "help" them understand is crazy.
Remember come November the Republican's will be telling us again that's it's not about social issues. It's the economy, jobs national security but if you elect them grab onto your rights because they will be coming for them.
yes...I saw this argument this morning. WOMEN won't fall for Obama because they don't CARE about social issues....they are so SMART they realize it's all about the economy...oh and ANN ROMNEY speaks for you!
Unite with us on April 28th all across the country to fight this war on women's rights!
www.facebook.com/unitewomen
www.unitewomen.org
www.twitter.com/unitewomen
www.youtube.com/unitewomen
And they think they have not gotten women's attention with all the women's healthcare issues they are trying to do away with! They have awaken a sleeping giant and she is pissed!
YOU CAN do it!
"..."to make sure we take our message to the women of America."
Pssst, Mittens, American women have heard "your message" and they're voting for the other guy!
I kind of get the feeling that he isn't clear on what his message to women has been. Or he believes us all to be June Cleavers and Edith Bunkers.
Romney has perhaps never known a woman who was not the trophy wife of some wealthy financier or corporate chief. Just as he's likely never actually known anyone who could be considered middle class. Just as he's likely never known anyone who did not own multiple homes, have a fleet of vehicles and a household staff.
Oh, he's clear on the message. The message is "Shut up, stop thinking, and vote for us."
It is difficult to understand why any woman would vote for the current crop of Republicans. Does anyone not hear what they're saying or, even more importantly, see what they're doing all around the country at both the state and federal level? If anyone is surprised by what Republicans do when they actually get into office, as they did in 2010, for example, then you simply aren't paying attention. If we learned anything in 2010 it is that voting is just as important to prevent what you DON'T want as it is to elect what you DO want. I hope people wake up and realize the stakes before it's too late. I have no desire to live in an America that has been returned to the socio-economic conditions of 1910, only with iPhones.
"We have work to do, to make sure we take our message to the women of America."
Republicans can keep their goddamn Mitts OFF the women of America. Sorry. No more man-handling, no more violence, no more cruelty, no more abuse. We're done.
In the list of the swing states just above the charts... "Virginiam." Virginiam?
There's got to be a joke to go w/that punchline! Has the pork industry completely bought up the state? Now it's not "Virginia ham, m'am... we're jess callin' it Virginiam."
Nah, it's like will.i.am -- virgin.i.am. Since they're mostly younger women, it's not surprising that Romney is trailing badly...
I saw it as "Virgin I Am"- you know; down there, it is a girl who can outrun her brother. . .
I don't know who has been advising republicans re: "social reform", but yanking on women's chains certainly isn't working for them.
May I just say, speaking as a person of the male persuasion, that men, in general, are idiots?
Here's the second most interesting thing* about the swing state poll: Obama is beating Romney by double digits among men under 50.
Just do the arithmetic: the story says Romney only has a 1-point edge among men overall, but is ahead by 56-38 among men over 50. The only way that arithmetic can work out is if Romney's losing men under 50 by double digits.
So maybe old farts of my g-g-generation are pretty dumb, but you young guys are apparently a bit smarter. More power to you!
*The most interesting thing is obviously the way Obama's crushing Romney by at least 61-30 among women under 50. But put these two numbers together, and what you have is a freakin' electoral earthquake. A party whose only solid demographic is white men over 50 is doomed.
As long as you keep it general. I, personally, have known a few good men. heh.
Yes, we are.
Karen Ray-5300649 In republican rush-world that makes you a harlot! LOL I just hope people don't start relying on these numbers and not voting. The POTUS needs a progressive House and Senate to make America America again.
Although I am not a female, I did get to watch the females in this country fight for their rights. (I'm 64)
Over the last 10-15 years I've watched young women apparently take all of these struggles and accomplishments for granted. Not all, but many.
In a perverse sense, I feel that the Republicans are reversing that trend. More younger women are seeming to understand what it took to accomplish these gains, but more importantly, seem to be understanding what is going to happen if they lose these gains.
Hopefully the momentum that has been created will last through November.
Its not just the women in the swing states, I think every thinking American who followed the circus labeled GOP debates would seriously consider voting for President Obama.
Lack of vision, intellect, detachment from ground realities in world affairs and lack of grasp on foreign affairs is what was exhibited by the three front runners all along. Romney carries the same baggage.
In the best of all possible worlds, Dems will make substantial gains in the House and hold the Senate. Obama wins re-election and in 2014, Dems take control of the House and get to a 60 seat Majority in the Senate. For 2 years, Democrats can beaver away and get some work done for an effing change.
They may need a couple of extras. You won't have Ben Nelson, but Joe Manchin seems to be taking his place. And there's always Mary Landrieu.
If they can get to a little over 60, they'd better not blow it by waiting around for "bipartisanship" or some other attempt at compromise. They should, in this case, pretend that the Republicans don't exist.
When you continuously attack any group within a society, you will eventually get a push-back. GOP, maybe you should have spent your energy on creating jobs insteaded of attacking women? Just maybe??
GOP, maybe you should have spent your energy on creating jobs insteaded of attacking women? Just maybe??
They know that they can't actually create jobs -- that's just marketing. Or at any rate, the things that they can do are all on the Democratic agenda and they won't get credit for it. And if they actually do things that don't work, it discredits their whole long-term program.
Much, much better to do what they can to distract the voters and rev up the "get that darkie out of the White House" sentiment.
Now the Supreme Court is "into invasive procedures." Apparently they have deemed it OK to strip search someone who is picked up mistakenly by law officials (see New Jersey case). Should not those officials check to see if they have the right person, not mistaken identity, before they strip search and delouse and all those other invasive things?
If they're so worried about finding a gun, why did they pass all these gun laws?
Hey, they all look alike.
I think the GOPs' plans to divert the nations' attention from job creation ,the economy and helping the middle class and poor has backfired. In so doing they have lost the Womens' vote in this nation. They should have stuck to the plan they originally ran on when they were campaigning, .....JOBS. I don't see any substantial jobs bills, do you? I'm just waiting to see what the next diversion is. I heard it was going to be censorship against comedians. A note to All The Members of Congress please roll up your sleeves and get to work helping our President help us. President Obama tried to get them to do this. If I was an employee that didn't listen to my Boss I would be fired. Well, you all probably have enough money now to retire anyway. Why don't you do us the favor?
I am a woman, over 50, living in Michigan. The first time I voted was in 1962 and it was for George Romney for governor of Michigan. I was a Republican then but I could not vote for Barry Goldwater 2 years later. When Ronald Reagan ran I voted for Gene McCarthy and then for John Anderson. Then in 1984 I started voting for the Democrats and I have not been sorry. I don't need contraception but feel all women who need it should have access to it because preventing pregnancy is far smarter and cheaper than having unwanted children. The current crop of Republican candidates don't really care about women and it is appalling. Even more appalling is the number of Republican women who don't seem to mind.
I pray there are more like you.