The Washington Post's Neil Irwin noted this morning that when it comes to the monthly jobs report, "We're due for a disappointing number." He was right -- though forecasts projected about 200,000 new jobs in March, the new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics fell short of expectations.
The U.S. economy added 120,000 jobs last month, while the overall unemployment rate dipped slightly to 8.2%. For the first time in a very long while, public-sector layoffs were less of a drag on the overall totals: the private sector added 121,000 jobs in March, while government lost only 1,000.
By any measure, today's disappointing totals are a real setback. While it's never wise to overreact to one report, March's job totals were the weakest since October, and reverse a three-month trend in which over 200,000 jobs were being created each month. In terms of revisions, January's totals were revised down a little, while February's were revised up a little.
While 120,000 new jobs would have been considered great in, say, late 2009, it's not even close to good enough now. This is a figure that barely keeps up with population growth, and is roughly half of what the economy should be producing as part of a larger recovery. Ideally, policymakers would see data like this and take steps to boost job creation, but given Republican efforts in Congress, that's no longer an option.
The overall economy has now added over 1.9 million jobs over the last year, and nearly 3.5 million jobs over the last three years. For America's private sector, it's 2.2 million over the last year, and 4 million over the last three years.
And with that, here's a new-and-improved version of the chart I run on the first Friday of every month, showing monthly job losses since the start of the Great Recession. The image makes a distinction -- red columns point to monthly job totals under the Bush administration, while blue columns point to job totals under the Obama administration. (By popular demand, it now has an x axis.)
Update: Here's another chart, this one showing monthly job losses/gains in just the private sector since the start of the Great Recession.
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Do we need any more proof that the policies of forced austerity and spending reductions are worthless, pointless, and damaging our economy? Americans need real, good-paying jobs, not a lecture from the Tea Party and other Washington lawmakers about how we need to cut back and make do with the status quo. That attitude is offensive and is insidiously anti-growth. The GOP's reckless partisanship is dangerous for our country and is tantamount to political sabotage to win the election http://www.sunstateactivist.org
Thanks for the labeling. It makes it much more meaningful when showing it to others.
I wonder if a warmer than expected Jan/February allowed various construction job starts that were unexpected in the seasonal factors, and this made those months seem a little higher than normal.
I think that's probably the most likely explanation. The snow deficit is astounding this year, new construction was getting started in January in Northern Ohio and other places normally snow covered at that time of year. I'd bet we just shifted the traditional spring job growth back a few months.
roses are red,violets are blue, i still have no job, how about you???
yes I do have a job.
Why would i want one? "Education" + "Employment" = ENSLAVEMENT
We'd all be better off broke than enslaved.
Given the way this recovery has gone so far, I will want to see more than one month before we make any pronouncements...it could pop back next month and then we will view this as an aberration...the trend is still good...and we are still vastly better off than we were two years ago...
Thank you, Jim D! Only us Democrats can take our steady successes and turn it into an occasion to find a fainting couch! The economy is STILL adding jobs - that should be the focus - not looking for reasons to declare the sky is falling!
Seems to me that 120,000 new jobs created is still better that 120,000 jobs lost! The unemployment rate DIPPED again. Seems that some people just refuse to see reality and continue to show their naked bigotry and unmasked idiocy. And the word hypocrisy does come to mind when listening to and reading GOP's statements about the current administration.
Everybody is missing a BIG POINT here!! The job numbers are only disappointing because they didn't meet the ECONOMIC FORECASTS. The number of people working is still rising, and it will continue to rise in jumps and starts - it won't ever be steady or constantly increasing.
So WHO is making these so-called "forecasts"? I have YET to hear who these "forecasters " are and what their particular "expertise" is, let alone HOW they make these assumptions.
What I do know about these "economic forecasts" is that they are almost always wrong. So WHY is everyone "disappointed" because reality doesn't meet the "guesses" of these people????
And, the "guessers" all seem to have jobs. Who hired them? The government? Impossible, all the Republicans will tell you "the government can't create jobs!" The private sector? well then how can they claim "independence"? Its a scam I tell ya, and Reince Priebus' caterpillars are involved somehow...
Looks like it is leveling off with small gains in job growth but gains nonetheless. Deficits do create jobs. Too bad you can't do that forever. Some day, some one will have to pay down that debt and unemployment will surely rise. The economy is not sustainable at these levels.
Hey Don, if you are worried about deficits can you tell me why investment income like Romney's $21,000,000 is only taxed at around 15%, but a working man who makes say 50 grand a year pays %28 on his wages he earned through actually working to make and build things? Also, can you tell me why Bush had two wars without raising taxes, I mean why Bush had two wars while lowering taxes? Ya think that added to the deficit? Here's an idea let's tax investment income over a certain level, gee I think I heard the figure $250,000 mentioned somewhere, at %28, same as income. And while we are at it why not allow the first 25grand or so be tax free. That 99% of the country could bank tax free.
And please don't go on about the "job creators" leaving or not investing. What are they going to do with all that cash, bury it in the yard? Does anyone seriously believe a guy like Romney who paid 13% on 21 million is going to not make another 21 million in interest next year because he has to pay an extra 15%? Puhlease. And most of them aren't "investing" at all. They are dumping that cash into hedge funds that are pouring into derivatives which are "fantasy football" type of investments that merely track genuine investment in stocks and bonds. None of that money actually makes its way to a real company that can put the funds towards genuine capital development. It's a bull@!$%# form of gambling for the mega rich. And it is doing more to destroy capitalism than Lenin, Stalin and Mao ever dreamed of being able to do.
I say @!$%# em. Pay the %28 or move the @!$%# to Somalia and see how much money you can make there.
Yep. We need all the tax increases the crats want plus all the cut the republican want and I bet we still won't balance the budget
The drop may be due to the fact that President Obama had to stop doing Congress's job for awhile and campaign. It'll go back up. Why isn't the GOP helping our President. Where I work they're always talking about Teamwork, I guess it's not the same in some places where the importance of teamwork is more evident.
Ask Eric Cantor, John Boehner and Mitch McConnell.
PEOPLE ARE GOING BACK TO WORK! That is the salient point that WE all need to focus on. And people are going back to work because some of US are feeling a bit better, and spending a few more dollars than we were. In spite of GOP: tantrums, obstructionism, mendacity, and irascibility! As a nation we've lived thru 30+ years of deregulation and trickle down - and the only thing that's done is darn near push US off the edge! I'm sorry the GOP, tea-potty, and those supposedly evangelical base of supporters refuse to see the truth of how their policies have disenfranchised US all!
Me, I working to help my man President Obama stay in office another 4 years!
Another one that no one seems catch is the U6 number. That is the total number of unemployed/underemployed/discouraged workers - and a more accurate measure of total unemployment. That number also dropped by .4% last month (14.5%), and is below the the 15.1% in February '09. That's a net gain in overall employment, even as more individuals are entering/re-entering the job market. It would be bad news if this number went up or stayed flat. This number means that overall, more people are working, and that the underemployed are also seeing improvement.
FYI - the trend in the U6 number has been on a steady downward trend. At this pace, by the elections, it should be below the numbers at the time of the last election.
In April 2009 if we had these numbers what would have been the reaction?
That's what I think about when I look at todays jobs report.
We are now disappointed about ADDING 120,000 jobs. That's a good sign. Our expectations have been raised.
That in and of itself is a sign that people know we are in a genuine economic recovery.
I got a real giggle out of Fox News on this one. The two reporting this good news (job growth is GOOD), were genuinely gleeful about it, but were soon reminded that they were supposed to focus on whatever negative side of this there was...not under 8% STILL!
Oh well. It gave me a good chuckle anyway. An upward trend even with a few bumps is STILL an upward trend!
just an aside...but as a long time benen reader, it's pretty wild to see the nbc peacock on his now famous bikini graphs...making the bigtime, steve...good for you
Steve says "by any measure" this is disappointing. But what about this measure, the U6 "total" unemployment rate? This dropped .4 point from 14.9 to 14.5. This is the measure of ALL people who could be looking for full-time work,not just the ones who dropped out and/or are working part-time. Some people think this is the best measure to consider when evaluating unemployment trends, and i's rate of decline, if anything, accelerated last month.
Despite the good numbers on the unemployment situation, there are economic dangers that may shatter the recovery. Some of those factors cannot be controlled, like the European debt crisis. But there are others that can be minimized. One factor that people are overlooking is the possibility that energy companies are manipulating their markets to make the economy worse. The gas crisis has nothing to do with supply and demand, yet the prices have gone sky high. If Obama wants to stop the speculation in the oil markets, he should, without prior warning, release one third of the gas reserves. This move would catch the speculators off guard and cause them to lose millions of dollars. This action would be a warning to any further speculation and manipulation of the market. These speculators would not want to see Obama release more gas from the reserves if he repeats the same method. Millions of lost dollars would give the speculators pause to think of what might happen if Obama does it again.