The top-line results in the new Washington Post/ABC News poll suggest the conventional wisdom is largely correct: President Obama leads Mitt Romney by seven points, 51% to 44%, and Americans are feeling slightly better about Obama, the economy, and the nation's direction.
But there are some other tidbits that jump out if one digs through the numbers a bit more. For example, it's clear that the Republican "war on women" is having a major impact on 2012 attitudes -- as women sour on the GOP, Obama now leads Romney by a whopping 19 points among female voters.
Just as interesting were the results on the candidates' personal qualities.
Obama has double-digit leads over the likely Republican presidential nominee on who would do a better job of protecting the middle class, addressing women's issues, handling international affairs and dealing with health care.
On personal traits, the president's edge is even bigger: He has a better than 2-to-1 advantage as the more friendly and likable of the two, and nearly that margin as "more inspiring."
As I'm inclined to do, I put together a chart on this, using the Post/ABC data.
Maddow Blog chart based on Post/ABC data
Note that Obama leads Romney in every category, but leads by nearly 40 points when respondents were asked which of the candidates "seems like the more friendly and likable person."
At a certain level, this may seem irrelevant -- presidential races aren't personality contests. Except, a lot of the time, like it or not, they are personality contests.
Think about how many times you've heard about which candidate voters would prefer "to have a beer with."
Especially in the television era, the candidate who's better liked is generally better positioned to win, and at least at this point, voters' perceptions of Romney just aren't favorable at all. After nearly six years on the national campaign trail, Americans don't seem to like the guy.
Making matters worse, this isn't an easy problem to fix.
Also of interest, respondents were asked, "What do you think is the bigger problem in this country: unfairness in the economic system that favors the wealthy, or over-regulation of the free market that interferes with growth and prosperity? A 52% majority pointed to unfairness in the system, suggesting American Crossroads' focus groups, which we talked about yesterday, are right -- Obama's larger economic message is resonating.
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"presidential races aren't personality contests. "
Shirley, you jest. . .
(Name, please, the contests where Mr. Personality lost to the jerk/creep/nerd/etc)
I agree, campaigns in the media age have greatly become a personality contest. I think this chart (poll) illustrates something I've contended for a long time, most people vote on very superficial rationale, namely, how much they "like" the candidate. I've had bosses and/or leaders who I wouldn't necessarily socialize with but they were honest and effective, but they probably would never win a political race.
I'm so glad times have changed and we have evolved into the caring individuals that we are today. Now, we have the means to find out just about anything we need to determine our choice when voting for our Representatives. It's a shame that our present GOP has stopped listening to the people.
Multiple studies have shown that voting is a highly irrational process.
Not anymore.
Nixon over Humphrey in 1968 is an example of a creepy candidate beating one with a much more agreeable personality. Other issues dominated that campaign.
2000* and 2004 were unique in that the "proclaimed winner" supposedly had the better personality AND was a tremendous creep/jerk
Day #1
Don't call me Shirley!
Nixon was pretty creepy and won twice, once after Watergate was starting to unravel.
Yeah Nixon lost the presidential debate then the election to Kennedy because he refused to wear make-up and had a 5 o'clock shadow. He looked like heel on TV. Kennedy look all nice and healthy.
Maria, correct and remember those listening on the radio felt Nixon won the debate.
MechTrek, I consider myself fairly web savvy and have never stumbled across Google Scholar. Thanks for the link and the awareness of a new tool.
Rob
Truly I can't remember if those listening on radio thought Nixon won (I was 2 years old at the time ;-) ). The point is televison was and is a very influential media on public perception. Also from then on Nixon did wear make up for television appearances. He learned a valuable lesson.
Once they uncover all the Corruption that is going on we will be able to take our place again as the Women we are today.
The issue rarely is the positive or negative personality of a candidate. Since Rove, it is more how successfully you paint someone as having the characteristics most people fear. Why do we have persistent undertones of Obama as a non American, Fascist, Socialist, Muslim? Because we fear these things, and even if they are nonsequitors when posited about a centrist like this man, they win votes when they generate distrust.
Larry, you are so correct. People, tell your friends and friends of friends, not to be taken by the works of those that work deception, like Rove.
"The issue rarely is the positive or negative personality of a candidate. Since Rove, it is more how successfully you paint someone as having the characteristics most people fear. Why do we have persistent undertones of Obama as a non American, Fascist, Socialist, Muslim? Because we fear these things, and even if they are nonsequitors when posited about a centrist like this man, they win votes when they generate distrust."
@Shumuwada... actually, these days we go on line to find anything we need to justify our choice... for just about anything. Think of the millions of voters who will vote for and strongly support the creepy, out-of-touch, doofus, even though they don't like him. And I suppose those descriptives could apply to either candidate, depending on your point of view. Even the so-called independents have already made a choice, depending on their predisposition to the purpose of government, and it's the duty of the rider to justify to the world the direction in which his elephant is leaning, with due respect and acknowledgement to Jonathan Haidt.
Let's face it, those who only get their news from Fox and those who are staunch supporters of the NRA are never going to change their minds. We need the women, who are far better off with Obama, to influence the men in their lives. It continues to amaze me that so many people who will be hurt the most by these far-right proposals and idiocy, still support them.
Forget trying to convince the unconvinceable. I had a conversation this past weekend with a friend who says he's "independent" (yet regularly votes Republican), who said he hoped that one day there would be a candidate who was really out to help the middle class and working people. I started listing the things the current candidate who wants to do those things is doing, and the things the Other Guy supports that not only don't help but actively hurt. Yeah yeah yeah, was the response, the only reason Obama is running for re-election is so he can set up his wife and kids for life with what he gets paid off with. At that point I went back to talking about the weather.
But as we walked out of the restaurant we were in, while I was paying my check, the guy behind me tapped me on the shoulder and said "you're right about all of that, which is why for the first time I am not voting Republican." So there you are, I wasn't even talking to him, he just sat at the next table and listened.
of course politics is a popularity contest. How else do you explain Californians electing "Governor Ahnold"? Politics is not easy. Between learning the issues and where each candidate stands, as well as knowing their political record and slogging through the rhetoric and slews of misinformation spewed daily, most people would rather just vote party lines or choose to believe what they hear without any real investigation.
I thank god for the internet. While it is often misused as a vehicle for disinformation, it has also increased the transparency of the government. The people are watching more and more as political agendas, lies and manipulations are laid bare. The question is, will it be enough to wake up the average voter?
"Clearer vision for the future" -- Obama 43% Romney 40%
WTF?
The only visions for the future that Romney has talked about with any consistency are repealing Obamacare and cutting taxes for him and his buddies.
Other than gutting things that have passed since Bush left office, I can't think of very much the GOP has offered up with any credibility or consistency as far as a "vision for the future".
They like to complain about how little Obama has done in terms of, say, drilling for oil, but the truth is it's unclear if there's much more that CAN be done! We seem to be at maximum capacity in the oil industry right now in terms of what can be done because of infrastructure build-outs that will just take time. And natural gas supplies are virtually overflowing -- implying we should see the price of natural gas dropping as a result of over-supplies, but not even THAT is happening. Something is screwed-up with the economy, and lying about it is not helping.
It is said that most voters do not pay attention to the elections until the fall. It appears, however, that may not be the case this year mostly due to the 24,999 GOP debates. Hence I would argue it isn't so much the long drawn out primary season as the debates that did a lot of damage & what followed thereafter only made it worse.
In other words, while the candidates were playing/pandering to the base professing to be the most conservative, the most far-right, the most extreme-right candidate on national TV, they were losing voters left & right. Then with their attacks on women, children, Latinos, African-Americans, Asians & other minorities, the working poor & middle-class, unions, the unemployed, etc. alienating more voters, their fate has been (almost sealed) notwithstanding voters are somewhat fickle at times. But when you cut off your nose to spite your face it does not grow back.
Meanwhile as the Republican Party continues to disassemble apace, mainstream America is awakening to the fact that the person best suited for the job is already in office: President Obama.
Romney's graph is over inflated,ha!ha!
Romney's graph is over inflated like his ego!
the supreme court will make sure Romney wins the election!watch and see!