After three consecutive weeks of discouraging news, today's report from the Department of Labor on initial unemployment claims pointed to a sharp improvement in the data.
Indeed, the new numbers not only reverse the discouraging trend, they're back to the level we saw in mid-March, which is near a four-year low.
The number of Americans who filed requests for jobless benefits fell last week for the first time in a month, down 27,000 to 365,000, the U.S. Labor Department said Thursday. Claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 392,000 from 388,000. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had projected claims would drop to a seasonally adjusted 378,000 in the week ended April 28. The average of new claims over the past four weeks, meanwhile, edged up by 750 to 383,500, the highest level since early December.
It's worth emphasizing that week-to-week results can vary widely, and it's best not to read too much significance into any one report. Still, it's generally heartening when the numbers are at least pointing in the right direction.
In terms of metrics, when jobless claims fall below the 400,000 threshold, it's considered evidence of an improving jobs landscape, and when the number drops below 370,000, it suggests jobs are actually being created rather quickly.
And with that, here's the chart -- which reflects the revised, seasonably-adjusted data -- showing weekly, initial unemployment claims going back to the beginning of 2007. (Remember, unlike the monthly jobs chart, a lower number is good news.) For context, I've added an arrow to show the point at which President Obama's Recovery Act began spending money.
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The numbers will spike from report to report, but we need to look at the trend. Over time things are improving. We would be doing a lot better if the Europeans would drop their slavish devotion to austerity. The world needs demand. America needs markets.
In Springtime verdant shoots emerge. After a storm the skies once again turn to blue.
We must not confuse weather with climate. A jobless recovery is an oxymoron.
Speaking of morons, the sheeple are easily distracted by bright and shiny objects, while a cancer eats within.
The real morons are those in Congress that are filibustering all the job bills and you half-wits without the commonsense to see what they are doing. They don't want us going back to work. The GOP want to take us back down into the depression Obama has just dug us out from. And don't forget the Bush administration started with a surplus and ended us up 14 trillion in debt.
I have been reading Krugman's new book. It is well worth the read, but I wonder if he even begins to understand the impact of new technology on the economy. Is it possible that our economy sucks because we don't need as many people to produce needed goods and services, yet strong demand is still tied to a strong middle class whose incomes are still tied to employment.
Maybe what we need to do is raise wages sufficiently to return to single income households. Yep, we need a country with a hundred million Ann Romneys. Well maybe some Andy Romneys too.
Mr. Benen,
I suggest adding a very bright red horizontal line across the graph which would highlight the level of claims when Obama took the oath of office. It would point out the major drop that has occurred since Obama took office.
May I be happy over this graph?
This graph is great, but it only reflects people who are getting unemployment benefits. Is the decrease due to people getting jobs? Or is it due to people running out of unemployment benefits? I lost my job in July of 2009. I collected unemployment and looked for a job full time while my savings lasted. Then I took a part time job in a restaurant to make ends meet and kept collecting unemployment, while looking for a job in my career. Then my unemployment ran out. Now I work in a restaurant full time and barely have time or energy to look for a job in my career. What I do see is that companies are still laying off people and the jobs openings that fit my experience are few and far between. Again, I would love to be happy about this data but the truth is that this data is incomplete. There are plenty of underemployed people out there who are not getting counted. We have not stopped looking for a job. We are just invisible.
The numbers we are talking about today are initial benefit claims. Initial means just that, people who were working but have recently lost their jobs. The problem anamb describes is real, but it isn't measured by today's metric.
I live in a very depressed area in Central California, this week I was able to put out over 10 resumes to companies offering work, and that was just in my field, AutoCAD Drafting. Of course, there was probably more than a thousand applicant's for each job, but the jobs are coming back.
The President has just recovered all the jobs that were lost in the past three years. THe jobs are coming back. Maybe not as quickly as we would like, but consider how much faster this recovery would have been if everyone worked together in Congress. The president is just one branch.