We were getting spoiled. After a terrific three-month stretch from December through February, it was tempting to think U.S. job creation was finally on track. But as we've seen before, the first few months of the year aren't always an indication of where things are headed.
The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs in April, which fell short of already-tepid expectations, while the overall unemployment rate dipped slightly to 8.1%. As has been the case, there was a big gap in the public vs. private sectors -- American businesses added 130,000 jobs last month, while the government shed 15,000 jobs.
It is the second consecutive month of disappointing totals, but there was a silver lining in today's Bureau of Labor Statistics report -- job creation in February and March were both revised up by a combined 53,000 jobs. It offers a reminder that these initial estimates are just that -- initial estimates -- and that overreacting to new reports generally isn't a good idea.
That doesn't change the fact, however, that 115,000 obviously isn't good enough. It's a figure that barely keeps up with population growth, and is roughly half of what the economy should be producing as part of a larger recovery. Ideally, policymakers would see data like this and take steps to boost job creation, but given the Republican agenda in Congress, that's no longer an option.
The overall economy has now added over 2 million jobs over the last year, and nearly 3.5 million jobs over the last three years. For America's private sector, it's 2.3 million over the last year, and 4 million over the last three years.
Incidentally, the 8.1% unemployment rate is the lowest since before President Obama took office, but as we've talked about before, that's not necessarily the best metric for looking at the overall jobs landscape, and in April, it was largely the result of people dropping out of the workforce.
And with that, here's the chart I run on the first Friday of every month, showing monthly job losses since the start of the Great Recession. The image makes a distinction -- red columns point to monthly job totals under the Bush administration, while blue columns point to job totals under the Obama administration. (By popular demand, it now has an x axis.)
Update: Here's another chart, this one showing monthly job losses/gains in just the private sector since the start of the Great Recession.
Leave a Comment:
If we could just pass more anti-abortion and anti-gay laws, the economy would turn around!
It is in positive territory. Private sector growth is improving at a decent rate considering. The States are running out of police officers and teachers to lay off.
A lot of our current problems are tied directly to the European austerity disaster. It is hard to make money when a giant world market is full free fall in a self inflicted double dip recession.
On another important front, gas prices have dropped significantly in the last couple of weeks. Of course, we don't see that reported in the mainstream media.
This is in "positive territory" like the engine temperature gauge moves in a positive direction AFTER your car breaks down from overheating.
There is nothing positive about today's unemployment and jobs numbers unless you say "it could be worse."
You can argue over whose fault it is, who should be president, what can turn it around, but you can not argue with a straight face that the 1/10th of a drop in unemployment is positive or good news.
The unemployment rate is not what it purports to be. We are losing ground, not gaining ground. Job creation is not keeping pace with population growth, those entering the job market for the first time. The decrease in the rate is due solely to people who quit looking for jobs.
It is difficult to grasp unless you look at the numbers, but the unemployment rate can do DOWN and the job market, job outlook, economy can be getting worse and lose ground. Why even NBC is reporting that 4/5 of all the decrease in the unemployment rate is due to those dropping out of the job search market.
Amen, brother!
Real bad numbers big time and likely the source of Romney's better showing in swing state polls. Obama has to pivot his campaign, at some not to distant point, to a Trumanesque run against a "do worse than nothing" Congress and Hooverish Romney, who created loads of jobs in China. Dems should focus on running as a brand. How many think that will ever happen?
They aren't real bad numbers big time. The numbers are disappointing, but they are moving in the right direction. Remember the Republicans in the Red States are running out of teachers to lay off.
Actually state revenues are improving some so there will be pressure on State legislatures and governors to hire in a few months.
What is your proof that Romney is doing better in swing states? I need to see a series of polls over time. I do know that Robert's Supreme Court Citizens United ads are running wall to wall here in Missouri. That might have something to do with current polls.
State and local layoffs will accelerate as their tax receipts have not recovered to pre 2008 levels while demand for spending has increased. Furloughs, layoffs, and reductions are not limited to teachers. Bloomberg is trying to close 20 firehouses in NYC. Consumer demand (70% of the economy) for durable goods is down and unlikely to rebound any time soon.
Romney's numbers have improved in Oh & Fl.
I guess that is what Republicans are hoping, but they face a real problem when they continue to cut state services. People blame the politicians doing the cutting.
My grandmother, who was raised on a farm, used to say that the definition of "potential" was the number of apple trees contained in a single apple. With that in mind, I ask you to chew on this sobering statistic: the number of working age Americans that do not have jobs is approaching 100 million. That's a lot of lost potential! That single "apple" contains in it the seeds of orchards full of America's future growth.
There are, of course, the 12.6 million Americans who are officially recognized as "unemployed." Those are the ones talked about in headlines. But, there are another 87.8 million Americans "of working age" who do not have jobs and are no longer counted in the Labor Dept.'s "unemployment numbers." Those folks are the ones who have supposedly "become discouraged and have stopped looking for work." As if there were any truth to that fantasy. I doubt a single one of them wouldn't rather have a job. This is the classic case of confusing the cause with the victim in a situation. People may be discouraged, but it's much more likely that they're discouraged with the fact that there's a job market, but it doesn't have room in it for them!
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/there-are-100-million-working-age-americans-that-do-not-have-jobs
The American economy is moving in the right direction. Contrary to the lies and exaggerations of an out-of-touch Mitt Romney, Obama has not made the jobs picture "worse." Millions of new jobs have been added over the last three years and the needle continues to point forward. But America will never be able to fully recover until conservative lawmakers and Republican politicians stop their strategy of jobs sabotage and get on the page of helping this country, not just their own political aspirations. http://www.sunstateactivist.org
Hard to tell from the limited y axis data, but I assume the prior month revisions are added into the chart going forward?
It would be interesting to overlay the original reported numbers over the revised numbers to get a graphical sense of what the revisions have looked like during the last couple years.
http://www.assemblydems.com/Article.asp?ArticleID=5379
(TRENTON) - Assembly Budget Committee Chair Vincent Prieto (D-Hudson/Bergen) on Wednesday questioned the Christie administration's decision to halt yet another job-training program (Professional Services Group) for beleaguered, out-of-work New Jerseyans, while doing little to address the state's job creation needs.
During today's Budget Committee hearing, Prieto questioned Department of Labor officials over the decision to shutter the statewide Professional Services Group program with little notice, a move that could potentially impact thousands of unemployed residents who utilize this network.
"The Governor's blind eye on job creation and support for the unemployed continues to get more disturbing. After essentially declaring 'mission accomplished' with the 'Jersey Comeback,' now he's adding insult to injury for the roughly 400,000 unemployed residents still struggling to get back into the job market.
"Yesterday the administration admitted to unilaterally dismantling a program to help train women and minorities in the building trades. Today we got confirmation that a comprehensive training program for out-of-work professionals is being halted with little notice.
"We can't just sweep these pressing problems under the rug. If this program is in fact going to be revamped, we need answers as to how and what will struggling residents do in the interim while the program is being reworked?" said Prieto."
PolitickerNJ.com politickernj.com
By Jennifer Sciortino | May 2nd, 2012 - 3:31pm (TRENTON) - Assembly Budget Committee Chair Vincent Prieto (D-Hudson/Bergen) on Wednesday questioned the Christie administration's decision to halt yet another job-training program...
(TRENTON) - Assembly Budget Committee Chair Vincent Prieto (D-Hudson/Bergen) on Wednesday questioned the Christie administration's decision to halt yet another job-training program (Professional Services Group) for beleaguered, out-of-work New Jerseyans, while doing little to address the state's job creation needs.
During today's Budget Committee hearing, Prieto questioned Department of Labor officials over the decision to shutter the statewide Professional Services Group program with little notice, a move that could potentially impact thousands of unemployed residents who utilize this network.
"The Governor's blind eye on job creation and support for the unemployed continues to get more disturbing. After essentially declaring 'mission accomplished' with the 'Jersey Comeback,' now he's adding insult to injury for the roughly 400,000 unemployed residents still struggling to get back into the job market.
"Yesterday the administration admitted to unilaterally dismantling a program to help train women and minorities in the building trades. Today we got confirmation that a comprehensive training program for out-of-work professionals is being halted with little notice.
"We can't just sweep these pressing problems under the rug. If this program is in fact going to be revamped, we need answers as to how and what will struggling residents do in the interim while the program is being reworked?" said Prieto."
PolitickerNJ.com politickernj.com
By Jennifer Sciortino | May 2nd, 2012 - 3:31pm (TRENTON) - Assembly Budget Committee Chair Vincent Prieto (D-Hudson/Bergen) on Wednesday questioned the Christie administration's decision to halt yet another job-training program...
Do we know how many jobs overall the Government has shed since 2009? I sense that the unemployment rate would be a bit lower if we would stop laying off government workers.
Let's not buy into all the hype promoted by the right wingers. We've all heard the claim that these numbers aren't 'good enough', because this 'proves' that people are giving up on their job search out of frustration, but they completely ignore what really happened.
After the economic collapse under Bush, millions of people didn't retire when they normally would have, because their retirement funds evaporated in front of their very eyes. This prevented normal job turnover and required new jobs to be created to employ young adults trying to enter the work force. Now that the stock market has rebounded (~65% since Obama was inaugurated), many of those people that delayed retirement now feel financially secure enough to retire allowing employers to employ younger people without creating 'new' jobs.
In addition, after the collapse, many single-income families were faced with situations where both adults sought employment in the hopes that at least one of them could bring home enough to pay the bills. In these cases, we had one person losing a job and two searching for work. (Although the second usually wouldn't be counted in the unemployment numbers...depends on which statistics are being used.) When one of these adults found work, very often the second one stopped looking. That's not out of frustration. That's because their lives returned to normal!
The big myth that the right is trying so hard to beat into their followers' brains is that people leaving the employment lines is a bad thing. It's all smoke and mirrors. These number are still a very good thing...especially when compared to the numbers of the Bush disaster. (-700,000 jobs a month at the end of his term)
Nice post Hal. I just wish the majority of people could read your post instead of such downer reports by most of the media. Good news doesn't sell in the media world.
Dept. of Labor reports the civilian workforce participation rate in April fell again to 63.6% .. the lowest since 1981
This number is going to worsen as technology continues to evolve. We really do have to rethink employment. What I said the other day is correct, we need 100,000,000 Ann Romneys staying home with the kids (or maybe some Andy Romneys). That means we are going to have to increase the wages of those remaining in the work place. The problem is structural and none of the politicians are even aware it exists.
Mitt Romney is an Ignorant individual...he can say all he wants that the jobs numbers are dissapointing...but he fails to remember that the President just put all the Jobs Bush lost back in place!!!!! How can he and the right sit there and say that it is dissappointing???? Romney has no clue how to run a country let alone how to create jobs Other than take over buisnesses and get them going and then let them fail and put all those people out of a job!!!!! If anybody thinks Romney will help this country they are totally out -of-Touch!!!!!!!! The Economy is on the right track.....Thank you Mr. President!!!! We will keep on the right track with President Obama ....4 More YEARS!!!!! Obama 2012 ~~
Amen, @Sherry! Romney's basic platform is, "Hi, I'm Mitt Romney. I deny any evidence of success this president has had and ask you to vote for me because I've been dead wrong on everything!"
End the Bush tax cuts and reform the loopholes the rich abuse....A very rich man would rather set his cujos on fire than send one more penny in tax to Uncle Sugar.
Ok. What about the fact that there is still this trend to downsize staff and cut full-time jobs in order to hire part-time or PRN.
What TYPE of jobs are being created?
Here's the headline we should also be seeing - which is basically a quote from an analyst at Bloomberg tv, who put the brakes on the practial jig Betty Liu was doing over the idea the economy might truly be slowing (Betty Liu has been asking every single day for the last two years or so, in one form or the other - "But if the economy doesn't pick up, doesn't that hurt Obama's re-election chances?!") -- in any case, here's an alternative headline that's just as true:
Obama Recovery Regains 5 Million Jobs Lost During Recession - In Addition, Adds a Net Positive of 150,000 Jobs
If things were in reverse, and a Republican president had turned around a Democratic economic disaster, headlines like the above would no doubt only be the start of the positive reports we'd see, and the meme would instead be - "This president looks to be unbeatable in the general election!"
One has to question the patriotism of this country when one party conspires against the other at the expense of its own citizens. Congress should be ashamed, but shame no longer deters modern day politicians, instead they make it an issue as well.
Is it not the conclusion of all of this data that the only path to a healthy economy is NOT TO ELECT REPUBLICANS INTO OFFICE! Or am I mis-reading the data?
This could be remedied if our do nothing congress would stop focusing on DOMA and all their radical abortion laws and defunding planned parenthood, put our workers back to work on our roads and bridges, let's put teachers back to work so our children won't end up resentful in the face of other nations children being more advanced on their education. This could be fixed, this will be fixed when President Obama is elected again, and our congress get's it's spring cleaning.
more liberal lies!!!!!!!! do democrats liberals socialist and marxists ever tell the real truth??