Yesterday morning, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker's (R) Department of Workforce Development would put out new job numbers, and a few hours later, his campaign operation used those new numbers as the basis for a new campaign ad.
At face value, this might seem like a compelling pitch for the Republican governor. As has been widely reported, job creation in Wisconsin in 2011 was the worst in the nation -- literally, 50th out of 50 states -- but here's Walker boasting about over 23,000 new jobs created last year.
Wisconsin Democrats weren't pleased that the governor's campaign operation seemed to be coordinating with state employment officials, and published data that wasn't supposed to be released until late June -- after the upcoming gubernatorial recall election.
But there's another issue that's worth noting: Walker's playing games with the statistics. As Rick Ungar explained:
So, just how is Walker about to turn Wisconsin's dismal job numbers from lemons to lemonade?
The Governor has simply decided to ignore the system used by the Department of Labor -- and every other state in the nation -- to measure job growth (or loss) and elected instead to go with a different set of numbers that makes things in Wisconsin look better.
In this case, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' data didn't tell the Republican governor what he wanted to hear -- the BLS found Wisconsin was one of only four states that didn't add jobs in 2011 -- so Walker turned to a different source. As one local newspaper reported, "The difference lies in how the numbers were generated. The new numbers come from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, produced for inclusion in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' national report to be issued on June 28 -- more than three weeks after the recall."
Walker apparently hopes voters don't look too closely at the fine print, and have no idea there are differences between one employment survey and another*.
* edited for clarity
Leave a Comment:
"Walker apparently hopes voters don't look too closely at the fine print,..."
Isn't that the GOP mantra - "it is because we say it is" - that's what I keep hearing when their lips move.......
Vote the bum out Wisconsinites!
One of my friends from the area has a very descriptive term for people like Gov. Walker - "@!$%#weasel." I do believe that it's open season in WI now on @!$%#weasels, don't you, Miss Zora?
Come now, Obama has been claiming an unemployment number that relies on the number of job seekers giving up in droves. Surely Walker is above that kind of behavior, yes?
Obama is using the same method that's been used for years. Actually, Obama isn't using any method because he doesn't generate unemployment data. Walker, on the other hand, has his hands deep in the state's administrative workings. I know how deep it can go because I worked for the State of Wis. for 30 years at fairly high levels of management.
Walker's numbers - and the method used - could conceivably have some credibility, but first we have to know a lot more about the method. It deserves serious skepticism simply because if it were so accurate it would have been used long before now.
Miss Carolinalady - I love you.....
So a survey of 96% of the business in that state is less reliable than a democratic pole of 2000 people?
chemdmd, there is a difference between scientifically proven methods which are accepted universally throughout the country and coming up with your own method which he doesn't explain he has done. In the scientific field, that is fraud. You can't use a different type of measurement without being very upfront that it is different and how it is different; otherwise, it is misleading.
I was absolutely astounded to see on Ed's show last nite that 39% of Wisconsinite union members were for this guy! What is wrong with these people??
We have the same problem in Nebraska. Fox news has apparently won over a lot of our members. You can't tell them anything. Its like they had their brains removed and replaced with Fox recordings.
"Its like they had their brains removed and replaced with Fox recordings."
They have, that why all of these states are having problems with "their governments" - and while I feel sorry for those of you in "stupid states" as Forrest Gump says "stupid is what stupid does". Maybe you should have those people declared insane and only allow the sane, rational, thinking people to vote. Just a suggestion.
This is one of the most frustrating things about the recall, and about U.S. politics in general. When I look at the news, read stories about statements made by politicians and read about reports by different analytical offices, I cannot imagine how anyone can vote for any Republican this year.
These are not the actions of responsible leaders who can be trusted with the power to manage our country's affairs. And yet the opinion polls show Democratic candidates trailing their Republican opponents, or leading only by the thinnest margins.
It's really strange. I am struck dumb by the sheer irrationality of it. Maybe I don't watch enough television, and so I am living in a completely different world than most Americans.
answer: 39%dumbass 61%good american people, the 39% should be banned as union members and let Walker do their collective bargaining for them !
Typical liberal viewpoint, IMHO, you can't see how anyone can have a valid opinion different from your own. If they do, they must be brainwashed, lied to, misinformed, ignorant, etc.
Can't you at least accept there are good people who have a different view of how to move forward and that the economy and political system is so complex there is seldom a simple answer to any one problem?
They are low information voters who are entirely susceptible to Fox News propaganda, easily manipulated and unable to form their own opinions based upon the available evidence of Walker's strategy to crush them. Voters who vote against their own economic interests - the Koch Brothers must find this truly hilarious. Like Jews voting for Nazis.
The clip shows "Forward" as the theme for Walker's campaign. Hmmm - when the Obama campaign introduced the exact same theme, didn't the GOP attack it as an evil thing, along the lines of Hitler, socialism, and the muslims?
"Forward" is the motto of Wisconsin and has been since 1851.
Wow! So Wisconsin has been a Fascist state all this time?
Well, I'm sure our world-renowned cadre of professional journalists will make sure that the public is fully aware of the fishiness of these numbers...
I read a little on this yesterday and I think I recall that several sources said the numbers used by Gov. Walker are more accurate than the initial set from BLS. This a quote from NPR:
The first set is based on a survey of 3.5%, the second set is a required reporting of all jobs, not an estimation based on a small sample. The post above gives you none of this information.
Here's another more neutral and all inclusive source, the Associated Press.
Hyperlink not working: Here's source link -
http://www.startribune.com/politics/151709635.html
"...I think I recall that several sources said..."
sounds solid to me.
At least as solid as any Republican reference to "sources".
I backed up my initial memory with information from NPR and the Associated Press. Do you disagree with the information? If so, say so.
What a cheap shot, pulling a partial quote and implying it was only my "recall" that I was relying on. I never mind providing sources for my assertions, unlike many here. So, I don't think it is Republicans who are source adverse.
And after all this he is still comfortably ahead in the polls. Amazing. Now I understand why so many people don't want anything to do with politics, it defies logic.
I was doing some "get out and volunteer" calling for Move On and one Wisconsinite told me that he'd heard reported that the polling that reported Walker ahead had been done in mainly Republican areas. Still, it's troubling as was the info about the Union support for Walker. I don't get the whole thing about the DNC not being as helpful as they should be in WI. What's up with that?
Walker has the bucks and seems to have a lot of voters going for him and he STILL feels he has to manipulate statistical data ??
Hmm.. perhaps he knows just how weak his position really is....
I would like to know what these 23,000 jobs were. If they are just re-hires for the public sector then that wouldn't really count because he was the one that fired them. If they are private sector jobs then are they because of what he did or what Obama did? Or are they nothing but new fast food jobs? Those don't count. People need real jobs. Jobs that have benefits and descent pay. Were any of these 23,000 jobs real jobs?
This awful man is currently 6 points ahead of Tom Barrett in a recent poll. His TV ads are numerous and frequent (I haven't counted them). I have received 3 81/2 x 11 full color, 2 sided, different campaign ads distributed by the Friends of Scott Walker in the past 10 days. I am very fearful of the outcome of this election.
Good lord what a sleazeball. And we actually have someone here defending this fraud? The sleazeballs are multiplying. I'm starting to question whether common sense and wisdom can overcome mass stupidity. Hard to believe that we actually have to point out this garbage and then argue with those who are too proud to admit they've been conned. I'm afraid The Idiocracy is closer than we know. Normally I wouldn't care and would actually love seeing them go down in flames following their selfish, greedy leaders. But I've got a granddaughter I really love.
As as Sconnie myself, it is beyond me how anyone can back this guy. If nothing else, his first year and a half in office have shown he DOES NOT have the skills, intelligence, or experience to manage his way out of a paper bag, much less manage the resources of an entire state. His policies AND his cronies in the state Senate have made politics more divisive here than I could have ever imagined. His actions have made it crystal clear that his interest is furthering his political career, because it's obvious he cares nothing about the people, or the future, of Wisconsin. He's set his sites much higher and is willing to leave us behind in a trail of dust.
Here's the most important thing to read from the above document:
"The new numbers come from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, produced for inclusion in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' national report to be issued on June 28 -- more than three weeks after the recall"
The numbers themselves AREN'T at question, nor is the validity of the report itself. The jobs happened, but you can create short-term, temporary jobs to fill a need: to make them appear on a report. What's at question is the timing of the report, and why he chose to use a report filed AFTER he knew his office was in danger, and not the one that is the national standard which is filed BEFORE the recall occurred. The cushion of those weeks may have provided him enough time to get those numbers where he wanted them to be. Two weeks is usually enough time for new hire paperwork to be filed.
So, that's the question here. Not "which report is more accurate" or "are they real jobs", but " why use that timing"? In just November 2011, WI was showing as having lost 14,600 jobs and they were the worst in the nation for job loss. Walker directly opposes the Bureau of Labor Statistics only when it suits him - when the numbers benefit him, he's happy to crow. Here's a related article from December 2011:
http://host.madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/capitol-report/capitol-report-wisconsin-leads-nation-in-job-losses/article_500cbbc4-2b33-11e1-8eff-0019bb2963f4.html
"...Oh! what a tangled web we weave. When first we practice to deceive!...," Scott Walker - Ooops, I mean Sir Walter Scott
The democratic money laundering scheme (tax money -> Public Service Unions -> democratic party) is about to stop. Thank God for Scott Walker's courage.
I am tired of hearing this argument. Any public sector employee can request a refund of the entire portion of their union dues that goes to political activities. This is a lie told to convince people that unions are stealing tax payer money to support Democrats. And as a side note, once I do the work the money is mine to do with as I see fit. I may give some to the church, a charity, or the NRA. I continue to pay union dues because I believe that they stand for middle class workers.
I naively didn't think anyone would use a similar title when I wrote a blog post Sunday, but Rachel Maddow beat me to it. De nada. We can call it synchronicity. I have a slightly different take on Walker's job claims, which can be seen here: whilewestillhavetime.blogspot.com/
Yesterday (Monday) was the first day of early voting, so I got that out of the way. It felt great. I believe Walker will lose the recall. I am resting my confidence on the belief that he is going to be indicted any day now. I may be wrong, but I just don't think it is in the ethers that he is going to remain in office.
Thanks for being there. I don't subscribe to cable, having worked in that industry (pretty shady), but I see various snippets from time to time. I appreciate intelligence and humor, so needed these days. Stay well.