About a year ago, the job market looked a lot like it does now -- after a strong winter, the economy stumbled badly in May and job growth stalled. Once the Republicans' debt-ceiling crisis was resolved, President Obama shifted gears, refocused his agenda, and unveiled the American Jobs Act.
It seems like ages ago, but it was just last September when the president delivered an address to a joint session of Congress, laying out a detailed plan to boost job creation. It's easy to forget, but it was a credible, serious plan -- the AJA would have prevented thousands of layoffs for teachers, cops, and firefighters; invested heavily in infrastructure; and cut taxes intended to spur hiring.
Independent analysis concluded the plan would have a significant and positive effect. From an AP report in September:
A tentative thumbs-up. That was the assessment Thursday night from economists who offered mainly positive reviews of President Barack Obama's $450 billion plan to stimulate job creation. [...]
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, estimated that the president's plan would boost economic growth by 2 percentage points, add 2 million jobs and reduce unemployment by a full percentage point next year compared with existing law.
Macroeconomic Advisers wasn't quite as optimistic, but its analysis projected that the White House plan "would give a significant boost to GDP and employment over the near-term." The firm would expect to see the proposal create at least 1.3 million jobs.
Despite public clamoring for action on jobs, congressional Republicans reflexively killed the American Jobs Act, saying it was unnecessary. The House wouldn't bring it up for a vote, and a Republican filibuster killed it in the Senate. For GOP policymakers, this was a time when Washington should stop investing in job creation and start focusing on austerity -- lower the deficit, take capital out of the economy, and everything would work out fine.
As panic sets in after this morning's brutal jobs report, take a moment to consider a hypothetical: what would the economy look like today if Congress had followed Obama's lead, responded to public-opinion polls, and passed the American Jobs Act? In 2012, do you think the nation could use those 1.3 million jobs or not?
Are we better off now as a result of Republican obstructionism and intransigence, or would we have been better off if popular and effective job-creation measures had been approved?
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Libs amaze me. To talk of Republican obstructionism is assinine. Remember all that happened when Bush was President? Other than a short time after 9/11 the left spent his entire presidency obstructing Bush and the troops.
The left had control of both houses of congress from 2006 through 2010. In 2009 and 2010 they had control of all 3 branches. They screwed it up worse than the repubs did when they had control of all 3 branches from 2001 through 2006.
Spending does not work as government wastes most of the money we give them. Our only hope is to shrink government at federal, state, and local levels. Get rid of Davis-Bacon laws and prevailing wage laws for public works jobs. Why should a private sector company be forced to pay higher wages to employees to work on public works jobs when the same jobs in private sector jobs get less money? Leftists are so worried about being fair. Is this fair? Of coure not. Wake up you leftist fools!
Do any of you have children or grandchildren? How can you face them when you know the debt you are leaving them will hinder them for their entire lives. You are either greedy, selfish, or stupid. Maybe a combination of all 3!
$450 Billion divided by 2 million is $225,000. By the best estimate in the piece above, that is the cost per job, and if that means one year of employment, or a more sustained employment I'm not sure.
My guess is most of those are not sustainable jobs, and the cost per job is one I'd expect the government to achieve. That's why command economies don't work, and why stimulus money given by the government, and taken by the by the government from private investment, is a net minus.
Take my (and others') opinion for what it's worth, but at least justify the cost of $225,000 per job, and please explain exactly what a "created job" means.
Also, I thought Obama was a big spending reducer. The claim was made proudly recently based on a falsified premise, and I guess we're supposed to forget that was a boast as we consider all the spending Obama wanted but was blocked by congress. So which is it guys? Just be honest about how big a government you want, and let's debate it.
Sure, we've heard these "expert" estimates a few times now, NONE of them panned out. Get rid of those acedemic wonderfolk and put some REAL practical economists/business people in charge.
We're tired of "I'll create 7 million jobs",
"Pass the stimulus and unemployment rate will not reach 8%."
"I'll cut the DEFICIT in half".
I find it incredibly ironic that Maddow misappropriates Frost's "The Road Not Taken" as her title. Many people fail to understand Frost. The poem's quite "tricky," to quote the man.
Really, the poem suggests that all decisions are really arbitrary; these two paths diverged in a yellow wood are "really" just about the same. But, later in life, the speaker asserts that taking the one path has made all the difference, after every stanza before outlines how the two paths are really the same. No, the other path was not more trodden. No, the speaker did not go one some great quest through untrodden woods.
In the end, decision is arbitrary, free will is really a joke, and yet it's quite human to believe that the choices we make have some real power in our lives. That's what the poem is about, anyway.
So, when Maddow asks her rhetorical questions at the end, I suggest, the economy probably wouldn't be significantly different. Because, really, the roads are just about the same.
As you get older, most of us see the hand of God in our lives more clearly. Some, like Maddow, see the other guy or just themselves.
"It's easy to forget, but it was a credible, serious plan -- the AJA would have prevented thousands of layoffs for teachers, cops, and firefighters;"
Isn't that special? One problem the vast majorities of us are not teachers, cops or firefighters. Our jobs are just as important to us as theirs are to them. When will people realize that government does not create jobs, the only thing it can do is consume productive capacity? If you believe this fairy tale about government creating jobs, you should really put the bong down.
Instant jobs - No Government. Ok, maybe a little much so how about only the government necessary. Little government is a liberal hell.
So assume the WH numbers are correct. $450 Billion would produce an extra 2 million jobs ... that's $225,000 each. I highly doubt that would be the average wage of the jobs produced.
Yes, the AJA might have added jobs, but at what even the WH projects is a ridiculous price. We could just ship 2million people checks for $50K and save $300 Billion. And people wonder why it was rejected?
That $450 billion(which would be added to the deficit)if divided by 1.3 million people would be less than $35,000 per person for one year. That is assuming that that entire figure would have been used for salary and wages, which would not be the case. Paying less than thirty-five thousand a year to 1.3 million people for one year is worth boosting the federal budget deficit by nearly half a trillion dollars? if we look at the U.S. Labor force in 2009 we see roughly 155 million participants or people working(probably less today). So, that would be roughly .08 percent of the U.S. workforce being added on for just one year.
This plan was not even a road, but a driveway to nowhere. It would impact so few people for so short a period of time, and at such great cost that one could not even consider it a serious public policy proposal.
"It seems like ages ago, but it was just last September when the president delivered an address to a joint session of Congress, laying out a detailed plan to boost job creation. It's easy to forget, but it was a credible, serious plan -- the AJA would have prevented thousands of layoffs for teachers, cops, and firefighters; invested heavily in infrastructure; and cut taxes intended to spur hiring."
Does this sound familiar? The last part looks like it was cut from a 2009 piece on the $864 billion stimulus bill from that year. Could Steve Benen at least try to rephrase his justification, rather than provide us with this left over meatloaf? Also, note that the only workers specifically mentioned in the quote are public employees. If you ever read the comments made on your articles Steve, could you try being just a bit less obvious about the sort of worker you actually care about? Try tossing in a store clerk, day laborer, or even a waitress. I hope that those people are not too dirty and common for you. Or, perhaps your real focus is just on public employees, and everyone else is just an afterthought for you and Mr. Obama?
Tapping the rich for an extra $800 to a trillion over ten years would cover only $80-$100 billion of the cost for this one year jobs bill, so most of it would be unpaid for even under the preferred Democratic approach.
yo butch......take off the ear straps.....YOUR BUDDIE OBAMA IS A FAILED HUMAN BEING AN A FAILED POLITICIAN. it happens to liars and frauds. all socialists are liars and frauds. it starts with a sense of resentment and then moves into faux victimization. You know what that feels like, doncha butchy?
suibne
The same old thing. It is never Obama's fault. Always the GOP. The Dem controlled Sente has not passed a balance budget in 3 yrs. Obama tried 1 but the vote in the senate was 99-0, but MSNBC would talk about that
I guess the public is supposed to have amnesia and not notice that the "jobs" act mirrored the $864 billion stimulus and would have cost another $480 billion! All it would have done is give Obama more money to misallocate to his supporters. Anyone claiming the success of the first stimulus need only go to propublica and see where the funds were allocated. One study (biased I'm sure) estimated that every job saved or created cost between $500,000 and $1,500,000. Even adjusting for bias, the results were not impressive and did not come close to promises. If Obama really cared about jobs or the outrageous national debt he ran up, he could have approved the Keystone Pipeline which would have brought jobs, capital and energy for the future. If the left loves Obama, fine, but stop asking anyone with a functioning brain cell buy into the fact that he has ANY idea about "job creation". He knows how to take funds from taxpayers and give it to someone else, but that is NOT economic growth. You'd think his failure with "shovel-ready" projects and "green investments" would have been noticed by the left. But no, they want to give him four more years to continue his failed agenda. He is clueless about the economy and should be grateful that cap and trade, card check, amnesty and the AJA weren't passed as all would have hurt jobs, increased the debt and the endangered future prosperity.
They why didn't one DEMOCRAT vote for it?
I repeat, why didn't one democrat vote for it??/
So much guess work. everything you guys are recommending is spend more money. O pulls out a cat from his hat and that solves everything. Why don't you look at debt and deficits first. No head of family will believe in solving problems by borrowing and spending. Show me a detailed study on the effects of stimulus.
The Communist Party USA caucusing democrat criminal organization that fiends for power and tax payer dollars is proving once again they are incapable of winning elections on merit or honesty.
From the moment the democrats were busted and put in their place by the Supreme Court as they shamelessly attempted to steal the 2000 Presidential Election, they have been seething with hatred towards President Bush and his party they know they can never measure up to. They would soon find themselves in the COMPLETE MINORITY where they belong coveting Bush's Presidency like drug addicts fiend for crack.
These criminal frauds have proven they do not exist to serve the American people are only capable of winning when they lie cheat, steal and deceive . This is a historic fact. So too is their tactic of "PROJECTION". Desperate to level the playing field they falsely accuse Republicans of the very things only democrats are guilty of or engaged in. The democrat leadership wants to bring everyone down to their level to share in their misery and indoctrinate them to spew their hate speech and propaganda, making them willing accomplices for the continued existence of their criminal organization.
This is today's reality and irrefutable facts not because I say but because we are drowning in evidence. The proof is all around us and can not be denied. Just look at all these stupid lemmings who are not smart enough to keep their hateful mouths shut on the internet, in the news in the classrooms.
Democrats are the party of perpetual fraud who belong in prison yet engage is their childish games of make believe and carry on as if they have never done or said anything wrong ever in their lives and everything is the Republicans/Conservatives fault.
Look at how they carry on in their world of make believe for the sole purpose of deceiving accusing Republicans of economic treason just because they don't get their way.
Reality check, you losers are not entitled to run this Country, rule or dictate haw we AMERICANS should live our lives. Your ideas are failures and not even your own. Stolen like everything else your takers do.
Talk about treason, try these words that were written in a letter to the democrat MINORITY leader in the Senate at that time ....
"TO BE BRIEF YOUR WORDS ARE KILLING US"
Americans do not need the party of democrats to survive, they survive off of us. They like to pretend they are oblivious to their own irrelevance. One of their many defects of character proving they are unqualified and unworthy of running this Country yet will find a way to blame Republicans for it.
I'm a registered democratic AMERICAN, since the age of 18 and it's not the Republicans fault.
I would also like to see the democrat party of perpetual fraud voted out of existence and that too is not the Republicans fault.
The entire Republican strategy since 2008 is perfectly summarized in that disgusting bumper sticker: Don't Re-nig 2012.
That's it, in a nutshell. All in one simple bumper sticker. The entire nation can go down screaming in flames, but for the love of all that is Money and Jesus, don't let a black man be president ever again.
Yeah cause Herman Cain isn't black and wasn't crucified by your liberal media for unproven charges.
Ion:
You must be referring to "Racist" George Bush, who appointed more Blacks in his presidency than BHO, right?
Drop the race card--It's no longer in demand.
http://www.davidlgray.info/blog/2012/03/potholes-in-my-lawn-blacks-who-call-other-blacks-coon-uncle-tom-and-sell-out/
dang. judging by the comments i'm reading on this liberal board...
one side has lost the argument.
the dem/prog coalition is gonna get their heads handed to them in November.
We Repubs are to BHO what Chemo is to Cancer: Toxic enough to kill the disease, but safe enough for the patient to live. Seven months, and the U.S. will be Cancer free.
............And we're borrowing the 450 Billion from...... and we're going to pay interest on the 450 Billion...............which adds how many more Billions....................and although One Trillion did not keep unemployment under 8%, less than half of one trillion will actually bring unemployment rate down........
Save it. We're over it. We're not buying it, anymore.
Dear MSNBC, please have your writers take Econ 101 before they make ridiculous economic claims. Sorry, but adding more union jobs to states that are already buried in debt and unfunded pension liabilities was not the answer. And spending more money on "stimulus" would create some jobs, but force us even further into debt. Obama had his chance when we all supported stimulus, but it didn't work and now our kids will have to pay for his failed policy. I applaud the Republicans for stopping this politically charged jobs bill which was really a big pay out to state employee unions and more reckless spending
Mrs. Maddow,
I certainly hope this was a joke because if you seriously believe that throwing money at a problem is going to help a thing you must have had your head buried in the sand the last decade. The government has tried this for the banks, the auto industry, the education system, and now local goverments?
My area of the country has not been as hard hit as most areas for precisely the opposite reason places like California and New York has. My county has low taxes, low regulations, and a family friendly, business friendly environment. We have new housing developments, new restaurants, and new factories no thanks to any bailouts. The only thing that scares this county is Obama and the federal government enacting job killing legislation.
We had this success because of supposed outdated conservative principles. We have job wanted signs, I am employed, my father is employed, my sister is employed, my mother is self-employed. In fact the only person that I know is not employed is my aunt and that is because she was in the same business as you.
We need conservatism. It is the only thing that not only provides for private sector growth but ensures confidence in Wall Street and Main Street that us normal people will be employed and will continue with our day to day lives.
I sincerely thank you for your comments on such issues but if you look at the facts you will find that pro-business states and counties have an obviously lower unemployment rates and more diverse and successful economies.
JTinNC,
Your information about the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act is totally incorrect. Of the estimated $787 billion stimulus package, $288 billion went to tax cuts which gave $400 for individuals and $800 for families through a reduction in their payroll withholding. If you were employed, every paycheck had a federal tax cut that put more money in your hands right away. It would have been more obvious if you had gotten a check in the mail but the more effective way to give the most people immediate stimulus was through a payroll tax cut. Then $250 went to each person who received Social Security, or veteran pensions and SSI benefits. $70 billion was used to extend the AMT tax shelter. $54 billion was allocated to help small businesses with tax deductions, credits and loan guarantees, $10 billion funded research into disease cures and science facilities, $4 billion to increase broadband infrastructure in rural and inner-city areas to make their businesses more competitive. There was a $2,500 college tuition tax credit for both 2009 and 2010. Unemployment benefits were extended. Then $46 billion was for transportation and mass transit projects, $31 billion to modernize federal buildings, $6 billion in water projects, $1.7 billion in renewable energy tax credits, $5 billion to weatherize homes. It also provided $87 billion in matching funds for 2 years to help states pay for Medicaid, $24 billion helped subsidize COBRA health insurance premiums for laid off workers, $17 billion to modernize health information technology systems, and $10 billion went to the National Institute of Health. In education, $54 billion went to school districts and states to pay for educational programs and teacher salaries, $21 billion for school facility construction and modernization, $17 billion to Pell Grants in 2010, $13 billion for Head Start and other state educational programs. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act was effective. In March 2009 before it was launched, Q1 GDP was -6.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average had sunk to 6,500. After the bill was passed, economic growth immediately improved. From over 800,000 jobs lost monthly from January through April 2009, we then began a steady monthly decrease in lost job numbers until finally in March of 2010 the jobs report showed a turnaround to +141,000 jobs. Positive job numbers have continued for 26 straight months adding 4.25 million private sector jobs. Over 1 million jobs were also saved due to Obama's March 2009 rescue of the American automobile industry.
Six years in power and the best answer you've got is "blame Bush" and "obstructionist Republicans (who've had control of the House just a little over a year??)"??
How about "crony socialism" being a FAILED ECONOMIC MODEL just like socialism has ALWAYS been??
One and done.
Give it up....it is not the Republicans. Obama had control of all three branches of government for two years and he now has control over two out of three. If he can't get it done with that control then he is just not an effective leader. Let's face it.....it is Obama's way or the highway. He does not negotiate. He is in so far over his head it isn't funny. He was and has been a Charlatan....the American people are catching on.
The AJA is just another spending program, designed primarily to fill the budget gaps in the libersl run states (CA,IL,NY). The success of the states that turned to republicans in 2010 is absolutely killing the democrats with the voters and dooming Obama's re-election chances. Government spending is the life blood of the democratic party. It's not a surprise that their solution to every problem is a spending program that doesn't work. When that doesn't work they will propose another, claiming the first was not big enough. Rinse,repeat...