Today's installment of campaign-related news items that won't necessarily generate a post of their own, but may be of interest to political observers:
* In the wake of last week's new immigration policy, President Obama has gotten a significant boost in support among Latino voters. A new Latino Decisions/America's Voice poll found nearly half of Latino voters said the announcement will make them more enthusiastic about supporting the president in November.
* Mitt Romney is campaigning quite a bit in Florida, but he doesn't want to be seen with Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R).
* Can a Democrat running for the Senate in a "red" state go on the offensive on health care? Actually, yes, and North Dakota's Heidi Heitkamp shows how.
* In the latest national Ipsos/Reuters poll, Obama leads Romney by just one point, 45% to 44%.
* In the states, Obama leads Romney by six in Nevada, by two in Michigan, and by 23 in New Jersey, while Romney leads Obama in North Carolina by two.
* Also in Nevada, the state U.S. Senate race is quickly becoming one of the most competitive in the country, with PPP showing appointed Sen. Dean Heller (R) leading Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) by just one point, 44% to 43%.
* And in Maine, former Gov. Angus King (I) has a commanding lead in the U.S. Senate race. While it's still unclear which party King would caucus with if he wins, Democrats are so eager to have him join them that the DSCC chair will barely acknowledge that the party has a candidate in the race.
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Go Heidi, and in your face Sociopath, Neanderthal, I-Me-Mine camp.. Feck off already!
We need more of this in-your-face way of dealing with the issues. The Dems can't shy away from their beliefs, and they need to demonstrate explicit differences with their opponents.
Exactly! When they try to hedge, hem, and haw their way through topics like health care, they are *not* going to win over any hard-core conservatives who would oppose them anyway, and it's hard for liberals or even people who are simply rational and compassionate to get behind them. Are they *really* in favor of health insurance reform? Are they trying to just make me think that they are? Where do you really stand? Be loud and proud about not wanting people to die because they can't afford the outrageous costs of health care in this backwards country! To quote Mike the Cleaner: No more half measures.
I agree 100%. Own the issue and fight for it. "Be loud and proud."
Ignoring the dem candidate in favor of the independent in the Maine race - yeah, because that totally worked out in the Florida Governor's race in 2010
Maine Democrats are afraid of throwing too much support at their nominee because that's how LePage got into office, because the Democrats and Independents were split between Mitchell and Culter, plus the other two Independents in the race, and I still don't understand how they got as many votes as they did.
The GOP nominated Charlie Summers, and he was following lockstep with Maine GOP chairman Charlie Webster with the cries of voter fraud, and taking away same day registration last November. I'm still surprised that Poliquin managed to get second place, although I would have laughed so much if the GOP had been foolish enough to nominate him.
Karen, Maine ain't Florida, and King is simply far more popular than Crist ever was. Meanwhile, I had been planning on doing a series here -- actually reprinted from comments at COGITAMUS -- on the races we should be following, and the people we should be sending a little 'green love' (or work, or ideas) to. While Shelley Berkely would have been #3 on my list -- and really has a strong chance of success -- the first one I wrote about -- but couldn't reprint until now because of Steve's deseved 'vacation' was (it's long, I talk alot, sowwy):
North Dakota is a strange state, politically. It is a strongly Republican
State where Romney leads Obama by 17 points, where Republicans in general lead
Democrats by 18, and where, despite this, the state keeps electing Democrats to
Congress. Not occasionally, repeatedly, and not always Blue Dogs. When Rick Berg
won the At Large Congressional seat in 2010, he was the first Republican
Congressman since 1980. John Hoeven won the open seat after Byron Dorgan
resigned, taking a seat that had been Democratic since 1986.
And this seat has been Democratic since 1961 -- and the two
Republicans who occupied it continually since 1923 until then were both
supported by the NonPartisan League, a Progressive Era organization founded
originally by a socialist.
The election of Hoeven was a landslide, but he had been one of the most
popular Givernors in the country, and the Democrats -- perhaps in this one
instance wisely -- basically punted the seat. And they hardly worked hard to
re-elect the incumbent Blue Dog Congressman, Earl Pomeroy. (Though Pomeroy was
also an opponent of the Iraq war as early as 2007 who called President Bush a
'clown' -- on YouTube -- and voted for the ACA.)
Rick Berg is no John Hoeven. His one term in Congress will be remembered
mostly for his "What's the minimum wage?" quote. (Other Representatives were
unable to answer as well, but I believe Berg was the first. And his made news
partially because he is the 14th richest Representative.) His positions are
Conservative to TeaBagger, but ironically, when he endorsed the 'establishment'
candidate to replace him, his candidate was defeated by another TPer. And a
least one blog regularly refers to him as Rick 'Slumlord' Berg for his founding
of Goldmark Property Managment, a company which has failed to get BBB
Accreditation and has numerous complaints filed against it over various items,
particularly overcharging to keep from returning security deposits.
Berg's campaign has been poor as well, but most importantly his opponent is a
smart, popular ex-Attorney General, Heidi Heitkamp, who Klein calls a real
"Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt" Democrat. (I've seen other NDs call her a
"ConservaDem" though and am not sure which is more accurate.)
The polls show her either even or a few points ahead, Berg has recently been
getting horselaughs for failing to reserve a website using his favorite
catch-phrase "The North Dakota Way" and letting Heitkamp open one with that name
mocking him. And Heitkamp is using the 'help' he's getting from Karl Rove as a
way of fundraising for her side -- and if anyone has a couple of bucks...
And the Congressional race -- one AL seat -- may be interesting as well. The
Republican is even to the right of Berg -- and Berg supported his opponent, as
did the Party organization, in the primary. The Democrat, Pam Gulleson, seems to
have a real 'plain folks appeal' but I've been unable to get a feel for how the
race is going. Again, a little cash that way might go a long way in a state
where media is cheap.
(I should say that I wrote this without seeing the Heitkamp video, and still haven't -- my sound card is busted. But the response makes me want to haul out my wife's laptop -- and probably will later.)
I hope to get one of these up every day or so, on Congressional or Senatorial races. Anyone who has any sugegstions for races I should check, I'm at jimbentn at verizon and its a net not a com or an org.
Actually, no it is NOT!!! If you understand the people of North Dakota, you will see that it is probably the most predictable state in the nation when it comes to elections! North Dakotans have always prided themselves as being "sensible" and that is who they vote for. Why do they typically have Republican governors? Because it is basically a FARM state and most farmers are Republican. The state wants PROVED skill at managing a budget and they choose those people who have already proven themselves so they typically vote for successful farmers or those who have successful businesses which serve farmers - and it has worked well for them.
Their governors have made sound decisions for the state (check what they are doing with the oil companies) so it DOESN'T have the budget deficits that other states have. When things are good, the state employees KNOW they will get a good raise, so they are willing to hold out when times are not so good!
North Dakotans typically vote in Democrats for Congress because in reality, there isn't that much difference in the state between the two parties and because they understand the difference in what they need from a governor from what they need from a Congressperson, and again, it is the person's CHARACTER that usually makes the difference.
Nutty things MAY get on the ballot, but they are usually soundly defeated like "Measure 2 - to eliminate property taxes" and "Measure 3 - the religious liberty amendment"
In North Dakota, the people think it is "all about us" instead of "all about me" so you won't see many Tea Party candidates or other ideologues winning in that state. But then you'd have to have lived in North Dakota during one of their winters or during one of their floods to see that "all about us' attitude. I was so impressed by their behavior cleaning up after floods when I was there - if your house was flooded, complete strangers would come and help you clean up - you didn't have to hire anyone and you didn't have to wait for FEMA. But you had to do your part and help clean up the next guy's house - and it is like that all over North Dakota!!
So don't call them "strange" if you don't know the people there - there is NOTHING strange about how they vote!!!
Great piece and thank you for filling in the background. I assumed that there was a rationality in their voting, but remember I am talking to a lot of people who don't see this, who know as little of the background as I did -- some of whom might be arguing that we don't have a chance in 'such a red state' and shouldn't waste money on a hopeless race. (We got way too much of this during 2010 in House races but also in Senate ones.) I had to break through that initial impression -- and to people who are on the outside, they look 'strange.'
The background you give makes me think there's even more of a shot in the Congressional race as well as for Heitkamp -- but the more talking them up we do, the better.
Steve, I understand that you have to report on the most current polls, but if you're going to do that you should point of the ridiculous weighting that's going on in the various poll results that you post.
The Michigan poll should be ignored. This is a direct quote from the documentation provided by the pollster:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/97087947/Foster-McCollum-White-Associates-Baydoun-Consulting-Michigan-Poll-June-2012
The electorate in Nov. will not be made up of 83% of voters over the age of 51. If you're going to post this polls result, it should include the above info.
Voters like candidates who get personal with issues because it humanizes the candidate. Heitkamp and many other women candidates including Elizabeth Warren are very good at campaigning because they make issues less abstract to voters. Republicans are ideologues and their message is not effective when faced with these Dem candidates. These are the people that can rebuild the Dem party.
In the wake of last week's new immigration policy, President Obama has gotten a significant boost in support among Latino voters. A new Latino Decisions/America's Voice poll found nearly half of Latino voters said the announcement will make them more enthusiastic about supporting the president in November.
Wow, what a shocker! Latino voters more enthusiastic about supporting Obama after that announcement. Didn't see that coming. Of course the timing of the announcement coming a few months before the election is purely coincidental.
Politics...is so interesting and many times predictable. I will be waiting for the usual "October surprise" from both parties. Running for office is becoming an art.
Skip. I agree that it's purely political but have enjoyed seeing some of the far right heads explode on local blogs and my Congressional representatives facebook page. "Sue, impeach,etc..." what I find intriguing is the executive order applies to those who have already been here for years, long before Obama was elected. Looks like he is just trying to find another solution to the previous administrations ineptitude...that it may help him come election time should come as no surprise.
I'm gonna laugh long and hard when Angus King wins on the backs of moderate Dem voters and then caucuses with the GOP and spends the next six years like Snowe did -- groveling like a whipped cur at the feet of Mitch McConnell. Laugh because the alternative is to cry over the self-destructive tendencies of Democrats who don't have the guts to stand up for their own party and its beliefs.
I doubt that Angus King would caucus with the GOP. He's already come out and said that he supports the re-election of President Obama, so given the current GOP attitude towards the President, I find it difficult to believe that he'd actually caucus with the GOP. Plus, some of the Maine Republicans were calling King, "the Second Democrat in the race."
http://bangordailynews.com/2012/06/11/politics/maines-angus-king-works-the-middle-ground-in-senate-bid/
I honestly haven't decided where my vote is going to go, aside from the fact that it's definitely not going to Charlie Summers. For me, it's either going to be King or Dill, but there's still a lot of time to figure it out.
The way these uncivilized reporters and republican politicians rudely interrupt the office of the president before the world I can only imagine how barbaric and insulting they would have been towards Hillary Clinton had she won. I've often wondered what's left in these men, after all they have now lost their own self respect?