At this point, it's almost a relief when initial unemployment claims simply fail to go up. Call it the soft bigotry of low expectations, but today's report from the Department of Labor this morning at least didn't deliver more bad news.
Though revisions once again pointed in the wrong direction, at least the new totals inched lower, not higher.
The number of Americans who filed requests for jobless benefits fell by 2,000 last week to 387,000, indicating little change in labor-market conditions. Claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 389,000 from 386,000, according to U.S. Labor Department data. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had projected claims would fall to a seasonally adjusted 385,000 in the week ended June 16. The average of new claims over the past four weeks, meanwhile, climbed by 3,500 to 386,250, marking the highest level in almost seven months.
To reiterate the point I make every Thursday morning, it's worth remembering that week-to-week results can vary widely, and it's best not to read too much significance into any one report.
In terms of metrics, when jobless claims fall below the 400,000 threshold, it's considered evidence of an improving jobs landscape, and when the number drops below 370,000, it suggests jobs are being created rather quickly. We've only managed to dip below the 370,000 threshold once in the last 11 weeks, and for four consecutive weeks, we've seen 380,000 or more.
Wouldn't it be nice if Congress could pass a jobs bill?
And with that, here's the chart showing weekly, initial unemployment claims going back to the beginning of 2007. (Remember, unlike the monthly jobs chart, a lower number is good news.) For context, I've added an arrow to show the point at which President Obama's Recovery Act began spending money.
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In the retail business June is the slowest month for profitability. Generally, noone hires at this time. It picks up again in August for back to school sales. A lot of people are on vacation too. Not much shopping going on.
Right, and the morning rooster crow is what brings the sun.
Let me try something different today. The left insists that borrowing/printing/taxing money to have people dig ditches will inspire the way forward, yes? And that is based on mathematical models, yes? Perhaps the left should do what it does best, have empathy for their fellow man.
Economics is about human relationships with money and each other. The economy/business/marketplace operates on emotion not math. Just like other markets the economy operates between fear and greed. The stock market bubble and real estate bubble came from 'greed', and we are now in the doldrums of fear.
What happens when people are fearful? They hoard/conserve/pay debts. They don't splurge/invest/replace. A jobs bill is meaningless to an entire nation of fearful people, and until 'greed' replaces fear, hoarding (no demand) will continue.
You see Shooter when ditchdigger's are put to work they can buy "stuff" and that in turn create's demand.And one of the byproduct's of demand is more hiring.When the government and the private sector layoff hundred's of thousand's of worker's ,that decreases demand.Which in turn causes less hiring.Simple is'nt it.
I see, you want to take $50k or so out of the economy so our Ditch digger can return part of it. Which leaves a net loss to the economy. Oh yeah, that'll make things better.
You've got it backwards, Less hiring brings less money to fulfill demand. Business is the generator of new wealth and/or profit. Look at North Dakota. Business is booming, demand is booming, jobs are booming. Elsewhere not so much. Can you figure out what's different about ND?
Who said anything about being afraid. I'm not afraid, on the contrary, I'm enjoying the ride for as long as it lasts, the slide shows have been great too. Has the Rooster crowed 3 times already?Can't you hear me knocking?
No, the idea is to take $50k or so that currently isn't even in the economy, (because the person who has it is just sitting on it), and giving it to our ditchdigger so that it _is— in the economy[1]. Remember that the economy isn't money, it's money that's moving.
You want to know why we think doing this sort of thing will work? It's because when it is done it generally _does— work. In fact, the US has one of the best examples of doing this in its history.
[1] Yes, I am aware that the numbers are slightly more complex than this. But were still talking about getting the money from somewhere it contributes 30% to the economy and using it somewhere it contributes 160%, (and is something that the government needs to do anyway[2]).
[2] Tell me, should you do that big infrastructure project when interest rates are low and unemployment high, or where interest rates are high and unemployment low?
shooter,
Having gone for a year when I was just out of college unable to feed my young family, let me tell you that I would have rejoiced to have found a jobs bill job. I know my life would have taken off years sooner. But hey, who am I to say that you are wrong. After all maybe you are right and we do live in a world where the market place gods arbitrarily swing our lives between boom and bust and there is nothing we mere mortals can do to make our lives better.
You bring up getting a jobs bill job. How likely would that have been? Are you suited for manual labor? Then there's the Obama epiphany that "shovel ready jobs" is just a slogan.
I hear you about your family, that's why we have a safety net. But in the end it wasn't Govt that got you going was it?
My dad was in the newspaper business, but he didn't believe in his sons having wussy Jimmy Olson type jobs. I worked as a janitor the linotype room and as a line boy on the press line at the Kansas City Star when I was in college. I know all about hard, hard manual labor. After college I was on my own.
Isn't the safety net you are talking about the same saftey net that is on the line in the Ryan budget?
I think you mean SS and Medicare will have to be slimmed down. They already cost more than they get in taxes.
1. "Wouldn't it be nice if Congress could pass a jobs bill" should read, "Wouldn't it be nice if Republicans stop blocking a jobs bill." Gotta love their "laser-like focus" on jobs, NOT!
2. The country and states have infrastructure projects in need of doing. They can borrow money at ridiculously low rates. There are people who want to do the work. ...It's almost like the Republicans in Congress and in the states don't want the economy to get better.
3. Give me a break, Shooter. You and the reactionary right have been working hard to instill fear...er, um, or is that "uncertainty," for a good 10+ years now.
1) Why not just send everyone $10,000 it would likely be cheaper and more effective.
2) State and local govt has to live within it's means. Novel concept, no?
3) Right, it's all Bush's fault.
Shooter, I would say Bush got the ball rolling, but Mitch McConnell and John Boehner have been doing a great job keeping the American economy down and in a state of constant fear.
US Weekly Jobless Claims, and the reporting on them.
May 03 - 365K revised 368K
May 10 - 367K Revised 370K (reported small drop)
May 17 - 370K Revised 372K (reported stayed flat)
May 24 - 370K Revised 373K (reported drop)
May 31 - 383K Revised 389K (reported 10K increase)
June 07 - 377K Revised 380K (MASSIVE 12k drop)
June 14 - 386K Revised 389K (reported 6K increase)
June 21 - 387K (reports above, 2K FALL)
Hey look, we inched lower this week, from last weeks 386 to 387... inching lower, by GOING UP.