Veteran Democratic pollster Peter Hart recently conducted a focus group in Colorado, and if President Obama's supporters want to feel depressed, they should certainly read what the undecided voters had to say.
One woman, a 49-year-old a customer service representative for an airline, said she'd consider voting for the president, but only if he "could do something huge, like really lower the price of gas."
Of course, the notion that Obama, by sheer force of will, can lower the price of gas is deeply foolish. The public's expectations about presidential power are often wildly at odds with reality; one official has limited control over the supply and demand of a globally-traded commodity.
On the other hand, gas prices really are dropping like a rock.
This chart, posted by Meteor Blades yesterday, shows gas prices over the last year. You'll notice that the cost per gallon has dropped about 50 cents since mid-April. What's more, with production up, oil inventories high, and global economic difficulties slowing demand, industry estimates suggest prices will drop to "$3 a gallon -- or less -- by autumn."
Obviously, conditions may change, but that's where things stand for now. Why should you care? There are two main angles to consider: the economics and the politics.
On the former, the drop in gas prices is welcome news for consumers, but the reasoning behind the drop is not at all encouraging -- crises in Europe and a weak domestic recovery are undermining demand, which in turn lower prices. Remember, after the crash in 2008, gas prices fell to about $1.80, but it wasn't good news in a macro sense.
That said, a drop in prices in the U.S. can put a little more money in consumers' pockets, which may have a modest stimulative effect.
But let's not overlook the politics, either. Republicans have argued, repeatedly and without shame, that when gas prices were on the rise, this was entirely President Obama's fault -- many leading GOP voices argued with a straight face that the president was single handedly pushing gas prices up in an election year, on purpose.
Indeed, Rebecca Leber pulled together some interesting quotes from the spring.
Mitt Romney, March 18, 2012: "He gets full credit or blame for what's happened in this economy, and what's happened to gasoline prices under his watch, and what's happened to our schools, and what's happened to our military forces. All these things are his responsibility while he's president."
House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), April 6, 2012: "The president holds the key to addressing the pain Ohioans are feeling at the gas pump and moving our nation away from its reliance on foreign energy. My question for the president is: what are you waiting for?"
Boehner, April 6, 2012: "The president's own policies to date have made matters worse and driven up gas prices."
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Feb. 28 2012: "This President will go to any length to drive up gas prices and pave the way for his ideological agenda."
Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY), March 13, 2012: Obama is "fully responsible for what the American public is paying for gasoline."
With this in mind, I'm inclined to once again wonder about some degree of accountability. Do Republicans still believe Obama is trying to get higher gas prices on purpose?
When GOP officials see gas prices fall, do they think the president, who apparently can dictate what happens at the pump by snapping his fingers, deserves credit, or Republicans believe Obama is just incompetent in his quest for higher prices?
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And may we assume the Obama political ad writers are busy preparing these and other similar quotes for national ads to fire back at the Republicans in around this fall's campaign (assuming gas prices continue to fall as predicted)?
Why bother? The Rmoney camp will outspend them with ads full of blatant lies and possibly win in the only manner that the GOP CAN win these days: by cheating. One way (election fraud) or another (buying the WH), the GOP can't win on policy and leadership, because they have neither.
Yes, and the whole thing is going to become a right-wing conspiracy where Obama made the gas prices rise in the spring, so that he can get those lovely quotes from his competition, then caused gas prices to fall before November just to make him look like a good President. See, Obama is manipulating gas prices, making you pay more, just for political gain. How un-American!
... I can see this playing out already.
Part of the drop of world petroleum prices is indeed due to a drop in demand. But part is also due to an increase in supply. Look to the Iran sanctions. The U.S. has convinced Europe to not purchase Iranian oil. To do this the U.S. has convinced other petroleum producers to make up the difference. But Iran continues to pump oil, loads it on tankers, which must sell covertly at reduced prices. Thus an increase in overall supply, and downward pressure on petroleum prices in world markets.
I suspect this was a side benefit of the Administration's strategy: they cannot get a stimulus bill through this Congress, but they can get a mild stimulus if consumer's dollars are freed up by paying less for gasoline. The economics of the foreign policy work to the Administration's benefit, and I would be shocked if they do not know it.
"One woman, a 49-year-old a customer service representative for an airline"
This country is in trouble . An obviously educated woman who is so blisteringly ignorant of what is going on around her, living in some sort of bubble la la land .
The republicans love her because she is so easily swayed by the big lie. Lord knows they have enough money now to push the lie.
She will be one of those people who look into the camera a week before the election and say with a Beavis and Butthead stutter ...Uhh uhhh I haven't made up my mind yet.
I didn't read you comment before saying pretty much the same thing below. It's amazing the ignorance, isn't it?
The worst scenario is when people like her finally watch the news and turn on Faux
America - too stupid for democracy
It's probably a human problem. Democracy probably can't work when problems are so serious and the immediate dangers are not right in front of people like a predator getting ready to eat you.
Humans - too stupid for democracy.
What I fear is that we're going to learn much too late - maybe not even learn it at all - that it's a Malthusian world. And relying on there being enough people to offset the morons like the woman referred to in Steve's post to deal with the problems is not something that pans out.
What better evidence can there be than the last 2 years, the Tea-publicans, denial of climate change, insistence on he-man fossil fuels, unnecessary destruction of the 20th century, Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas, ...
Ignorance? Seems ignorance would be like uh...electing people who seek power so badly they toss millions towards obtaining a job that will pay far less yet gives them the power to make laws and of course be on the inside as laws and funding for projects are born.
Ignorance? Like getting your news and opinions from corporate owned media?
Ignorance? Like grabbing hold of the conspiracy theory line while ignoring that A) if it in fact is a theory then it has some factual basis or points that should be tested thoroughly B) conspiracy theories like the term "liberal" have been vilified more by those who fear them than those who know how to look at them in a truly unbiased way.
Blissfully they nod in agreement as the shadow of doubt is driven away to be replaced by clouds of crap.
I had a similar conversation recently with a 70-year-old friend of mine, who loudly declared that Obama was ruining the country. I asked her if she was aware that Romney supports the Ryan budget plan, which would end Medicare as we know it, and she was shocked. When I further asked if she was aware that Obamacare had had a positive impact on the cost of her prescription medications, she was even more shocked. This is the type of voter who scares me most: those who know nothing about what's actually going on and yet speak the most stridently about how badly the country is being run.
It reminds me of Adlai Stevenson's comment on the electorate when one of his supporters said something along the lines of, "Mr. Stevenson, all thoughtful people are with you." Stevenson replied, "Yes, but I need a majority to win."
I have a cool app on my phone - FRED - Federal Reserve Economic Data.
Full site is (if the link doesn't work it is research.stlouisfed.org)
Federal Reserve Economic Data - FRED - St. Louis Fed
The app lets you look up data on a ton of categories - including commodity prices like gas and oil prices, unemployment. Full site has even more.
I quibble with the line in the post "On the other hand, gas prices really are dropping like a rock."
"Drop like a rock" is the drop from 3.632 on 2008-09-29 to 1.613 on 2008-12-29
US regular All Formulations Gas Price (GASREGW)
This drop mirrored the "drop like a rock" drop in oil prices and the "drop like a rock" drop in the Stock Market.
"One woman, a 49-year-old a customer service representative for an airline, said she'd consider voting for the president, but only if he "could do something huge, like really lower the price of gas."
Of course, the notion that Obama, by sheer force of will, can lower the price of gas is deeply foolish."
And this is why the country is in the shape its in. This dim-witted nincompoop would think it a good thing if she turned on the news -- certainly she doesn't read, right? -- and head the country was in deflation.
Americans are flat out full-bore stupid, and Republicans wallow in it to the country's disadvantage.
Unfortunately, I agree with you. The average American is more interested in watching Wheel of Fortune than a couple of Sunday talk shows to educate themselves, and then whine when the GOP plays on their fear and ignorance to get votes.
Sheep get fleeced. if you don't want to get fleeced, don't be a sheep.
Watching the Sunday talk shows will probably little better than watching Fox. They're heavily focused on Republicans: Republicans get far more invitations than Democrats and hosts simply won't demand answers for fear they won't get future guests to sit on their useless programs.
"-- and head the country was in deflation. Americans are flat out full-bore stupid,"
Deflation does not have much of an affect on poor Americans, other then to help stretch their dollar a little further. When driving back and forth to a part time job that pays minimum wage takes up to a third of your pay deflation sounds pretty good. A crash in the stock market doesn't land so hard the poor as it does wealthy bankers and investors. And I would kind of like to see some of the Wall Street big bank executives jump out the windows of high rise buildings, that would be much better then seeing poor kids coming home from Afghanistan with an American flag covering their bodies.
That I disagree with. Bob Schieffer and David Gregory actually do a pretty good job of straight down the middle journalism, which is particularly tough to do in this caustic environment. Both guys regularly call out GOP BS, albeit subtley, most recently when Schieffer asked Romney 5 times for specifics and didn't get any answers.
JohnnyKo, I disagree. Put the word Republicans in front of each of the show titles and those two interview MANY more Reps than Dems. Whenever there is a Dem on either show, they are treated differently in tone and challenge to their points than Repubs ever are. Language choices show more bias in favor of Repubs and against Dems. Schieffer's interview Sunday was truly an exception to his usual demeanor with Republican guests. So, not so straight down the middle at all.
Consider the always low voter turn out in elections, and couple that with the increase in both husband and wife holding down several jobs, not to mention a house underwater and credit card/tuition debt at an all time high, and you see why America is not "paying attention."
And, a Dear Abby question: Should I tell the President that his wife keeps emailing me to have lunch with her?
Boy, I did not realize that everyone was in that boat. Certainly there are some people, my husband and I for two that are not in that kind of trouble. In fact we are just fine. You paint with a very big brush which is really very simple minded.
ya - the private sector is just fine too.......lucky for you.
Yup here we go, Repubs own mouth came back to bite them in the ass
How is it biting Republicans in the ass? They're wallowing in it like a dung beetle.
In April, the GOP BS Machine (oil slicks Boehner, Cantor, and the guy that looks like a turtle in a suit -- name escapes me) was on TV every day blaming Obama for high gasoline prices. Now, after crude oil prices have dropped by $25 per barrel, not a WORD from any of the news outlets who perpetually put this horsebleep claim by the GOP on the air. And, of course, not a word by the cowardly Dems -- who should be calling the GOP out on this, and should be asking if Obama is also responsible for the recent decline in prices, and shouldn't we all be voting for him now.
Fact is, OPEC not Obama controls oil prices, but why not use the GOP's own BS against them? In my view, the Dems are respnsible for letting the GOP run all over them, and never calling them out.
Obama and the Dems won't stand up and take credit because they know that the Pres does NOT have totalitarian control over gas prices, despite Repub public claims to the contrary. Repubs know he doesn't have contro lover it either, but anything they can hang around their opponents neck and convinve their sheeple as true, they will do. If the President were to stand up and try to take credit for it, then he would be ridiculed as not taking responsibility when thingsweare going badly, but taking credit when those same items go well.
It's best if he and the Dems just stay quiet and let a privately funded PAC re-run of those quotes, asking why the Repubs (who blamed Obama knowing full-well that Obama really had no control over the issue) aren't thanking him now that the prices are dropping.
Those of us who choose to educate ourselves by reading texts that explain things like Kensyean economic theory, OPEC bylaws, etc., and not relying solely on opinion-entertainment TV that tries to sell itself as News (i.e. Fox news), understand that the President does not control oils prices and should call him out if he tried to take credit for reduced oil prices.
but why not use the GOP's own BS against them?
Because we like bringing a knife to a gunfight.
They lose the info wars Always
If gas prices continue to fall, I will bet that sometime after Labor Day, the Republicans will do an about face from their position of a few months ago. (Not all that unusual for them, but interesting in this case.)
They'll argue that Obama is manipulating gas prices because he's "desperate." That he knows he can't win if they're high, so he's bringing them down temporarily. And that, as soon as he's re-elected, he will push them back up.
Makes as much sense as anything else they say.
I must admit it Americans convince me everyday that they have not only been dumbed down, but a basic understanding of CIVICS eludes them! These are the same types of people that voted Scott Walker back into office, voted for a birther Judge in San Diego, voted into office the GOP - basic understanding of issues are too hard for them to grasp! Maybe they should all move to Texas and then let Texas secede from the union; then adults would be able to move about the nation unencumbered from their ignorance....
I just paid $3.08 at the pump this morning. Thank you, Teapublicans for being so persistent. I am so glad you put all the blame for high gas prices on President Obama when ya did six months ago. Obama finally broke down and lowered the price for all of us hard working folks out here that have no brains and cannot think for ourselves! And to think all he had to do was make a phone call. Now, I'll have enough money this weekend to splurge on the finer things in life like an ice cream cone.
We (the confused middle class) need you, (the smarter Teapublicans) more than ever now. For when your privately owned Supreme Court repeals the AHCA, or at least all the parts of it we, (the healthy middle class) don't want or need, it's up to you, (the healthier Teapublicans) to insure that when we (the uninsured middle class) get sick, we get sick and we die at home. Thank you for all you do!
Gas prices are still too high. When Bush left office it was $1.89.
Only because he had crashed the world economy. That's nothing to brag about Cindy. It was $3 plus just before the GOP crash
Per that liberal media rag, the Wall Street Journal (dated 06/25/12):
When Bush left office, he left us with 2 wars and an enormous deficit that we're still trying to get out of (well, we're out of 1 war - Bush's fake one).
1) OPEC controls oil prices
2) World demand for gas has increased dramatically (e.g. China)
3) Some European countries and finances are currently in epic fail mode
4) Even IF President Obama had said "Drill, Baby, Drill" back in 2008, we'd still be close to the gas prices we have now
5) Corporate profits for U.S. gas companies are at historical all-time highs
Cindy, if you'd prefer, we can re-create the conditions at that time. Remember, we were worrying about whether or not there would be a depression reminiscent of the 1930s, stock prices were in free fall, people were afraid that their money market accounts might be lost, etc. You know ... the good old days of late 2008 and early 2009.
That would certainly cause per barrel oil prices to fall, bringing gas prices back down to $1.50 a gallon.
Would you prefer that, Cindy?
I would not be so quick to celebrate the news about lower gas prices. The energy companies do not like Obama's policies, particularly the proposed elimination of subsidies. These companies along with Wall Street are not above manipulating gas prices to damage the Obama campaign just in time for the elections.
I'll bet that is true, everybody gets used to low gas prices and then the administration tries to push through the end of subsidies and the oil companies scream that prices will go up (and they probably would). Then the administration gets blamed for making prices go up again. Catch-22....
My sister, who is not stupid by any means and says she's an independent but leans R, re-posted one of those idiotic "Why doesn't Obama do something about lower gas prices" on her FB page a few months ago, asking me *specifically* (because I'm the loan liberal in our immediate family) to comment. My basic response was 1) the president has no control over gas prices and 2) why is it so many people claim they want the government to stay out of the way of the free market, yet turn around and ask the government (Obama) to intervene into... the free market. I also mentioned it had to do with the situation in the middle east and also said that the US is currently producing more oil under Obama. This same sister says she has no time to pay attention to politics (she is extremely busy with work and her passion, a very worthwhile volunteer organization), and thinks it doesn't matter if she pays attention, which is, of course, completely wrong. I suspect the person quoted in this article is much like my sister. Somehow we need to convince them otherwise.
I'm still mystified that Republicans would have thought that it would be a good strategy for Obama to push gas prices way up in an election year?
I guess in Republicanland, whatever is happening is 1) bad, and 2) Obama's fault.
Gas prices have gone down? Not where I live. http://www.defazio.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=784:defazio-asks-president-to-support-investigation-into-west-coast-gas-prices&catid=69:2012-press-releases
I live in the Northwest, too, Don. In our area, gas prices were around $4.20/gallon, but they're down about fifty cents a gallon just in the last two weeks.
I live on the southern Oregon coast and I pay 4.20 also. I don't think it every got to 4.70 here. I drive so little I might not have noticed. Just seems like they went down nationally but not here. Maybe the threat of an investigation scared them into dropping them here too.
Anyone should notice the timing of this gasoline increase/decrease. Just as the economy was gaining some momentum, despite the European troubles, gasoline prices began ascending. As economy was beginning to cool off gasoline prices began descending. Could be just a coincidence? Yeah, could be...