The new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll is chock full of interesting data, and though there are results both sides will be glad to see, on balance, the news is better for President Obama than Mitt Romney.
In a head-to-head match-up, Obama's lead is only three points nationwide, 47% to 44%, which is largely unchanged from the last few months. But among voters in battleground states -- Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin -- Obama's lead is eight points, 50% to 42%.
Just as importantly, Romney's favorable numbers are dropping: the number of voters with a favorable impression of the Republican is down to just 33% nationwide, and 30% in swing states.
Of particular interest to me, though, was a question pollsters don't often ask: are you voting for your preferred candidate or against the rival candidate? I put a chart together noting Obama's edge on this question:
It's really not close. While nearly three out of four Obama backers are motivated by their support for the president (what I call "genuine support"), more than half of Romney's backers are driven by their opposition to Obama (what I call "support by default"). In other words, even those who intend to vote for Romney for president don't really like him; they're just prepared to settle for him because he's not the other guy. The Republican isn't inspiring admiration; he's counting on the incumbent inspiring hatred.
In recent elections, this hasn't been a recipe for success.
Other observations from the poll:
* Constituencies: Obama is running strongest with women, minorities and young voters. Romney, meanwhile, is consolidating support with the Republican base, enjoying the support of Tea Partiers and white men.
* Likeability: Putting aside policies, Obama remains personally popular, while Romney, though not as well known, still has a net-negative on favorable-unfavorable rating
* Bain Capital: In battleground states, only 18% say they've heard about Romney's private-sector background and it gives them a more positive impression of the candidate. A third of swing-state voters see Romney's work at Bain Capital as a negative.
* Economy: Americans remain pessimistic about the economy and disapprove of Obama's handling of it, but 60% believe Obama inherited the current economic conditions.
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Unfortunately , against the other candidate still wins elections.
"Support by Default" can win elections, but such voters, exclusive of the truly hard-core "haters" of a given candidate, are more easily dissuaded from voting. It might rain, for example.
I, for my part, am encouraged by these numbers particularly when taken together with my favorite indicator: a candidate's negative rating. Mittens consistently runs higher negatives than the President.
I am also encouraged by these numbers because as I read the Right, the Far Right and the Wing-Nut far Right sites all (each to its own degree) seem to be counting on the "Support by Default" vote to carry the day for them
Hello Sick
Do you actually have data that backs up that statement?
Or are you just particularly grumpy, pessimistic and ... well ... tired today?
I am more hopeful (when I'm not sobbing with fear). If voter turnout and enthusiasm makes a difference, than these poll results are very encouraging.
Extra sick-n-effin today . I have to turn off the TEEVEE to preserve my sanity.
The constant barrage of lies and and false equivalency is taking it's toll on my psyche.
I think this may be a valid point. Maybe these voters don't really care for Romney, but they WILL vote for him regardless. Put a fireplug in his place and they will vote for the fireplug. They WILL turn out at the polls, too - they'd make it there hobbling on broken legs if they have to, but they will be there. It's the entire purpose of their lives.
Just visit any Right wing blog.
Their hate of Obama knows no bound.
Don't you have a crazy Red State relative that sends you emails?
I would love to see one example of this happening.
"against the other candidate still wins elections" Tell it to President Kerry. .
Good aftuhnoon, gemmun...
This is why the downballot offices are so important and ticket-splitting is, as well. We CAN convince some of the by-default Romney voters to help us clean house and remove radical TeaParty ilk from the House of Representatives and from state legislatures. They are the ones, after all, who've been introducing and passing all those ALEC-written bills to bust unions, force invasive procedures upon women seeking abortions, defund Planned Parenthood, purge voter rolls, institute voter IDs, etc. and so forth and so on. Get 'em out of office over the next couple of election cycles and let the by-default voters feel better about their presidential votes as long as they vote the right way on the down ballot offices!
I think the thing that is relevant is "strength" of that emotion. A lot of folks here seem to think of "against the other guy" voters as easily dissuaded from coming out to vote (rain, meeting at work, headache, whatever), but it really depends on the strength of their feeling. Someone really determined to not let someone he dislikes take office is going to vote for the other guy, period.
BUT, where this question is relevant:
This is why this question is important. Hatred can definitely win elections. But, it has to be universal, unbending, and durable. The anti-Obamacore is at about 25% if my math is correct; that's not universal enough. The likes of Fox will do their best to increase those numbers, but it's going to be a tough row for them to hoe.
That doesn't mean it's a walk in the park for us, either. We can't just sit here, complacent with the knowledge that our vote if "for" our candidate. We need to take advantage of that and talk with others who might be on the fence and share our enthusiasm. It won't be free, but I certainly don't envy the position the other side of this contest finds itself in!
I'm a fan of TRMS and the Ed Show. All tolled, your advocacy and Ed's advocacy on Labor's behalf is admirable and appreciated; BUT for some reason, you never bring up any major issues with IBM and it's continuous Offshoring of US IBM workers' jobs. You never speak about the 70,000 US IBMers that have lost their jobs over the past decade. You never mention anything about the discussion that IBM's then-CEO Sam Palmisano had with President Obama, in 2009, regarding a $30 billion stimulus pkg to IBM in exchange for a supposed creation of 900,000 IT jobs; which incidentally were never assumed to end up in the USA anyway. Why is that Rachel??? What sort of protection, are you obligated to give IBM, from your usual scrutiny and curiosity to know the truth? I've tried numerous times to get Ed Schultz's and your attention through FB, Twitter, and emails regarding this subject...to no avail. I'd like to know why this topic never comes up on your show? Especially now, as all of us are realizing what a piece of crap Romney really is for Offshoring, Outsourcing and generally doing the SAME thing that IBM has been doing since the late 1990's... Why don't you talk about this on your show??? Send me an email if that works better for you: iwisweb@endicottalliance.org I'd really like to have my above questions answered honestly, because I respect and admire your honesty and integrity, Rachel... So, how about it, huh?
Rick White
Alliance@IBM CWA Local 1701
www.allianceibm.org
My mother, a lifelong Republican, said to me, a lifelong Democrat, "I can tell by Obama's body language that he doesn't care about the American people." My response? "Funny, that's what I think about Romney." If this election is going to be decided on the basis of body language, I think we are all in trouble!
donna i read that post and quite frankly that saddens me. Your mother isn't talking about body language. You know that and I know that. She is uncomfortable with a black man in the white house. It may be a subconscious reaction, but that's what is going on. Because body language and caring about the American people is a preposterous notion. As for you, since you are on this blog it is likely you don't like Romney not for his posture or body language but for the fact this man lies like a stair carpet.
Sorry for the duplication...I erased this one.
"The Republican isn't inspiring admiration; he's counting on the incumbent inspiring hatred."
Rachel, sweetie, I know you would like to divide us all into Liberal/Lovers and Conservative/Haters. But honey, we don't hate Obama or African Americans. We just believe that Romney is better for America at this time. God bless you, Rachel. Try to be a little more objective and less divisive yourself. Love is the answer :)
Except for those inconvenient charts and facts you could be right (sweetie)
Don't call her honey.
Stan Arthur: Is that deliberate condescension, or are you just lacking in social skills?
How about you refrain from using "sweetie" and "honey"? Judging from your photo, you are a white male, Romney's bread and butter. And "we"? Do you really propose that you speak for all Republicans? I can assure you, you don't. Using diminutive language to dismiss or belittle is completely disrespectful.
diminutive
Stan, honey, Steve Benen wrote this post. Nowhere in the post did he accuse you of racism. You brought it up yourself. Some people -- not me, of course -- might view that as evidence of a guilty mind. I happen to believe that Obama is better for the country than George W. or W-lite Romney. That's not actually "divisive", that's simply disagreeing with you.
"Divisive" is calling someone who believes that raising taxes a hair on people in my income bracket "socialist" or people whose religious views don't teach that life begins at insemination "baby-killers" or people who believe that government has a role in maintaining safe and fair work conditions "anti-business". Does that help?
Hey, Stan... err, sweetie, honey, lovie-dovie pie darling..... maybe your Conservative/Haters should find a candidate that they really like then, instead of relying on Fox News to make sure that all the poor, non-educated racists hate Obama so much that they show up at the poles to vote against him. Because most folks REALLY KNOW (deep down in their hearts) that Romney is NOT better for America, or even capable of hosting a potluck dinner or pumping gas at a WAWA, when he is completely out of touch with us and really wants to send YOUR job overseas to get the tax break. I guess you would oblige him of this, though, and give up your job -- just to make sure Mr. Obama is GONE, right? That's all that matters to you, apparently, sweetie? Your paycheck and your livelihood take a backseat to making sure Obama is a 1-term president?... So you MUST know how short-sighted and moronic this sounds (not to mention suspiciously motivated?) I feel so sorry for all of you who hate someone so much that you will sacrifice your own lives and livelihoods like this..... because, sweetie.... LOVE IS THE ANSWER : )
Of couuuuuurse, Stan. Doubling down and intensifying the policies that caused the Great Recession will certainly be the solution to the Great Recession!
Now, 1) you can believe and be a complete idiot, or 2) you can be a complete dick by trying to fool us into thinking you believe it when all you're really motivated by is an assumption that it is good for you in your short-term selfish.
There's only two option. Which one is it for you?
PS: Folks, it's been quite a while now that wingnuts have taken you exactly the way Stan intimates. These people are bullies. Not only that, they're bullies that are right about nothing but never in doubt. Furthermore, they understand one thing and one thing only: the alpha-male way. You MUST treat them with that in mind, or they condescend with greater intensity. They DO NOT respond to you showing them respect. You have to remember that.
You didn't read the poll results did you?
Who are you going to believe? Your lying eyes and charts from polls, or Stan, who has a secret man-crush on Steve Benen (although I don't understand the "Rachel" nickname he has taken on).
Stan, if it isn't obvious, you failed at:
Isn't this generally the way it is when an incumbent is running for re-election?
Here's the thing I can't stop thinking about with regard to those voting for Romney because he's "not Obama." Given the character and judgment of the two candidates, that's a really perverse, upside-down motivation. "Not Obama" means that Romney doesn't care about the middle class and will actively look to exploit it. "Not Obama" means Romney has supremely terrible foreign policy judgment. "Not Obama" means Romney will actively seek to privatize as much as can be privatized for the opportunity to squeeze every dollar out of it. "Not Obama" means Romney can't give a straight answer, unless someone gives him permission to, and even then, he looks like a deer in the headlights while giving it. " The Obama the "not Obama" folks rail against only exists in the lies and propaganda perpetuated by Romney and the GOP machine, yet they take these lies so seriously, they can't seem to bring themselves to understand they are being played for fools yet again by "Not Obama."
Hi Rachel,
I love your show and your blog - and your book. I agree with your point of view much of the time.
But, with all due respect, can't you guys lose that annoying pop-up when I open this page? Jeeze.
Its your browser or browser settings dude .... no popups for me ...Jeeze
I take very little stock in polls...they all seem to find people to ask who agree with their positions...and main stream media only wants to report on what's negative regarding Progressives.
I (unfortunately) live in AZ..home of the right wing, redneck, teabag bigots..I don't think the President is doing anything wrong..but would be much further ahead with EVERYTHING we need if he wasn't fighting the bigots in Congress. The idiots put there because people believed the idiots that are teabaggers.. the Palins, Bachmans, McCains etc.. The President needs to be re-elected..and given a Congress who will work with all the reforms he has tried to pass.
Steve! Please, please, PLEASE!!!! stop using blue and red for everything. People have internalized blue == Democrats and red == Republicans.
Doing this is akin to reassigning the alphabet so that t=e, h=t, e=h and what used to be "the" is now "eth"
So right-wingers see Romney as the whiter of two evils?
From Gallup:
Obama Approval
48% +1
Obama Disapproval
46% -2
Presidential Election
Romney 46%
Obama 45%
- it's really close and we have a lot of time left. What factors that can hurt BO at this point I think would be Obamacare (hopefully) being struck down, and fall out from the Fast and Furious mess. The real number that matter is his approval with Independents which is at 43%, if that number doesn't grow, he's toast.
gallup has been showing a gop +2.5 house effect so far this cycle...and the nbc/wsj poll steve links to in this post has obama up 4 with indi voters, 40-36 with 14% undecided...the president won indis by 4 in 08
Romney might get his 'base' out on election day, but he won't get Independents unless he comes up with some IDEAS and PLANS, because they will choose the devil they know over the devil they don't know-especially when all he has to offer is garbled mutterings, when asked to take a stand on anything
Hey Steve,
Very interesting graph, thanks for putting it together from the polling information. It immediately struck me as a graphic representation of why the republicans are the party of no and haven't offered new ideas for the good of our country. They seem to be stuck in this ideological position of being against things rather than being for things (unless it is tax cuts for the wealthy). It's too bad that this negative approach has the capacity to win elections. I find myself wishing for an informed electorate that prefers the more positive problem solving approach rather than a negative one. A "can do", let's get it done approach is better for our country.
so, obama's driving the vote on both sides...willard's just an afterthought
"The [U.S.] Constitution is a limitation on the government, not on private individuals ... it does not prescribe the conduct of private individuals, only the conduct of the government ... it is not a charter for government power, but a charter of the citizen's protection against the government." Ayn Rand
I'm asking that you spread the word – that the Obama “Truth Team” is out in full force, scouring any U.S. based web sites of any size or influence (yet small enough to be pushed around) that contains any information deemed “objectionable” to the Obama re-election campaign. Perhaps it’s already too late. Regardless, people need to wake up now and listen to what we’ve been saying. There might not be a tomorrow.
Did you forget to take your medicine today?
to me the most amazing [or scary] numbers from this poll is this juxtaposition
obama leads african americans 92%-1%
romney leads with teabaggers 94%-1%
I live in (not quite) Texas (Austin, and so I am surrounded by right wing zealots who seem to hate Obama with unreasoned passion. When I ask them why they hate him so much, they always talk about his "socialist' left wing policies and his high taxes. But when I point out that taxes are lower now even than during W's terms, and ask him what policies other than Tarp (which was a Bush program anyway) it always seems to come down to "he wants to tax us all and take our guns away" sort of stuff. So there is never actually anything REAL they can cite. I don't now if it is covert racism, or, as most of them are avowed Christians, a hatred of anyone trying to help those less fortunate, presumably because "God hasn't blessed them, therefore God must hate them".
At all events, one way or another, the Democrats have shown very little spine in fighting the mass of disinformation about Obama, and about the economy in general. And it would seem that Democrats are going to vote the way they do mainly because they believe in Obama's policies, and Republicans are going to vote mainly based on irrational hatred.
I figured out at a very young age how to get money from rich people.. IT'S CALLED A JOB!
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So they say we are to "Obey the Law".....why.....My President doesn't.
It's so HARD TO BELIEVE that THE LIBERAL MEDIA CAN INFLUENCE ANYONE ...BUT THEY certainly do seem to be convincing to the IDIOTS
But wasn't this always obvious, even before Romney won the nomination.. This is no surprise to me..What is motivating REPUGS is their utter hatred of Pres. Obama, not even his policies since he adopted many of them from Republicans themselves..If they were for it, when Obama agrees, they are against it now..The Repugs are in the pocket of the top 1%, & they, the top 1% don't want Obama in the White House...And the minion Republican voters incentive is their dislike or even Hatred of Pres. Obama, so they would vote for a snake, in reality they will, rather than vote for Pres. Obama..Thats all she wrote folks....
Well what do you expect? You ask any republican why he's voting for Romney and he'll go on and on and on about...Obama. They know the bare minimum about their own candidate and even less about the details of whatever plans he has for the country.