I'm beginning to think reports documenting initial unemployment claims should come with antacids. Two weeks ago, we saw a sharp drop, caused largely by one-time factors, with claims reaching a four-year low. Last week, we saw the exact opposite, with claims surging back up.
And this week, the new report from the Department of Labor shows the figure bouncing back down again, caused once again by seasonal volatility.
The number of people who filed applications for unemployment benefits fell by 35,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 353,000, marking the third straight week of sharp swings that reflects the government's difficulty in assessing employment levels in the auto industry. Auto manufacturers used to schedule brief shutdowns of plants every July to retool for new models, but the size of temporary layoffs has varied widely since the industry was bailed out several years ago. That makes the claims report especially volatile in July and less useful in gauging labor-market trends. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had projected they would drop to 378,000 from last week's upwardly revised level of 388,000. A more accurate barometer of labor-market trends, the four-week claims average, declined by 8,750 to 367,250,000, the Labor Department said Thursday.
To reiterate the point I make every Thursday morning, it's worth remembering that week-to-week results can vary widely, and it's best not to read too much significance into any one report. This is especially true this month, given the volatility in July.
In terms of metrics, when jobless claims fall below the 400,000 threshold, it's considered evidence of an improving jobs landscape, and when the number drops below 370,000, it suggests jobs are being created rather quickly. We've only managed to dip below the 370,000 threshold three times in the last 16 weeks, though the four-week average offers at least some encouragement.
And with that, here's the chart showing weekly, initial unemployment claims going back to the beginning of 2007. (Remember, unlike the monthly jobs chart, a lower number is good news.) For context, I've added an arrow to show the point at which President Obama's Recovery Act began spending money.
Leave a Comment:
We are in a new era. When so much wealth resides with so few people, when the stock holders are egged into putting profit above the welfare of workers, when America has become a "service based economy", when greed rules, we will see unemployment rise or be replaced with lower and lower wages. It could continue to the point where money will no longer buy a thing. People might start going back to looking out for each other. Farmers might trade their products for labor and goods they need. People might give up tossing money away on things like this stupid internet or pay TV or cars or ...well we shall see what comes from a continuation of concentration of wealth because it has gotten beyond stopping.
I can't look at this graph and not wonder whether there might have been some kind of dramatic political change that is temporally connected to the way the rate of improve slowed dramatically starting in 2011 and whether there might be some specific causal phenomenon associated with this event that might explain it.
If only we had some private non-governmental institution in this country given special constitutional sanction and protection just so it could investigate such questions and report upon them to the general public without fear of reprisal or retribution by persons or parties who might be cast in an unfavorable light by such reporting.
Steve, I think your second paragraph is just a bit too subtle for most people to get it.
The people who most need to get it wouldn't get it if you downloaded it directly into their brains.
Our country's economy is in an anemic condition. Things that need to be done by the Fed are not, because they don't give a sh!t about the 2nd of their dual 'missions'. That mission is keeping unemployment down. All they seem to give a sh!t about is protecting their fellow bankers.
Our country's economy is in an anemic condition. Things that need to be done by our legislative branches are not, because they are more interested in getting the n!gger out of the White House than in putting people to work.
Our country's economy is in an anemic condition. Things that need to be said to the amerikan sheeple are not said by the corporately owned media, because they are a major part of the wealth based power structure and use 'he said - he said' reporting to obfuscate the damage being done to our country by the wealthy and their repuke front men.
It is so typical of Romney to flap his mouth and say nothing that shows how he really does business. Remember a typical saying – Let’s just try it and see how it works. That is the clear signal you are going to get screwed by these rich people as they are going to push a policy that isn’t any good for anyone, except if your rich. And that is how Romney talks never say anything useful by saying nonsense than give you the big screw. These Republicans a long with the rich pull this crap all the time and it is so lined with deceptions and lies. Instead of telling the truth, the Republicans and the rich don’t they just tell more extreme lies. And you actually think you can trust people like that, when those are the types that usually are scam artists and end up in prison. The biggest crooks around are sitting right in the GOP/Republican Party right now and the people are not going to get anything good with the likes of them in government. Romney doesn’t want to show any of his financials, because it would show how really corrupt he has been. Romney has never been concerned with people, except his own self interests, and has shown it too clearly in how he has bankrupted companies, stole pensions, moved companies overseas without even properly handling how those people would be treated fairly, and has helped in leading people to commit suicide, despair, misery, and violence. Romney lacks any real form of humanity and if it is said otherwise is nothing but wrapped in lies and deception. But Romney does fit in with the GOP/Republican Party, because they follow those same principles as Romney has done.
I live in California. I was on unemployment until it was yanked out from under me in July when the 99-week extension ended here. Duh. No wonder the numbers are dropping. I've given up trying to find work, so I don't count any more.