Pew Research Center
The topline results of the new Pew Research Center poll will probably get most of the attention: President Obama leads Mitt Romney in the poll by 10 points, 51% to 41%. Before Democrats get too excited about this, though, Nate Silver explained the gap isn't as impressive as it seems, and Obama's swing-state lead actually shrank in the poll, from seven to four points.
Of greater interest, at least to me, was a separate tidbit, which reinforces a trend I've been covering closely this year. From Pew's report:
Romney faces a more daunting challenge, as more voters say they have an unfavorable (52%) than favorable (37%) opinion of him. The only prior presidential candidates to be viewed negatively going into the election were George H.W. Bush in October 1992 and Bob Dole in October 1996.
Obama's favorability ratings certainly aren't setting any records, but he remains generally popular and his favorable/unfavorable numbers are at least above water.
Romney's 37% rating, however, makes him, at least for now, the least liked major-party nominee since Pew began polling on this a quarter-century ago. Kerry was better liked after the Swiftboating; Gore was better liked after the media tried to destroy him; McCain was better liked after picking Palin.
The 2012 Republican nominee has been running for president, nearly non-stop, for more than six years, but he's still struggling to get voters to warm up to him.
As we discussed last week, this hardly means Romney's a sure-fire loser. If the American mainstream is deeply dissatisfied with the status quo and blames the president, even if he doesn't deserve it, voters may very well hold their nose and elect the guy they dislike.
But the fact that people don't seem to care for him makes his task inherently more difficult.
At a certain level, factors like favorable/unfavorable ratings may seem irrelevant. After all, presidential races aren't personality contests.
Except, a lot of the time, like it or not, they are personality contests. Think about how many times you've heard about which candidate voters would prefer "to have a beer with."
Especially in the television era, the candidate who's better liked is generally better positioned to win, and at least at this point, voters' perceptions of Romney just aren't favorable at all. After nearly six years on the national campaign trail, Americans don't seem to like the guy.
I'm not sure how the Republican campaign turns this around, but I suspect it will have something to do with trying to drag Obama down, not building Romney up.
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I have contended for years the "unfavorability" rating is the least reported but often most important number in any closely contested election
Agreed.
It's too bad for Mitt Romney that this election wasn't held in the 1970's when pet rocks were all the rage. He'd have won the election hands down.
And voters can't "have a beer" with Romoney even if they wanted to. The Great White Hope of Mormon science-fictionology is a loser.
Pathological lying. Obsessive secretiveness. Inability to relate or have normal social interactions with people who aren't, in his view, demographically, economically and ideologically just like him. Ostentatious sense of entitlement.
Hey, what's not to like?
I really have a hard time seeing how the debates are going to work in Romney's favor on this front.
It seems to be difficult to get people to like you when you're an amoral phony dickweed.
Okay, that's actually better stated than my comment. Never mind my comment guys. What DWIA said.
Don't worry, right after Mitt hired a PR firm to spin his "Bain truth" for him, he hired another PR firm to kiss babies.
I wonder what...
A popular government without popular information or the means of
acquiring it, is but a prologue to a farce, or a tragedy, or perhaps
both.
James
Madison
why are the favorable/unfavorable stats flipped in the graph?
You are kidding, right?
The longer Romney hides and doesn't disclose imperative information, and lies, the lesser and lesser his popularity. The only other President that ducked from The American people and stayed out of the limelight was his endorser, Bush. I think I heard from Bush maybe 3 times when he was President. Romney is just a puppet, Also, lately his walk and demeanor seem to be getting worst. He looks like he may have a really bad back problem. Is he under medical care? Or like Rainman would ask "Is he taking any prescription medicine?" I noticed he bows his head a lot more after he makes that smug facial expression. I have nothing against him personally, but I have no respect for someone who would take advantage of other people., like a Bully. His campaigning seems to be more of an ego thing or a personal goal, rather than a true Statesman who would go to battle for the less fortunate. He is his own hero. We need to stick with our current hero. Give the guy a break. Too many Bullies in the Republican Party.
What happens to these numbers when Romney's car wreck at Beaulac France is re-examined? The background facts are at least as bad as his tax and voting scams involving Massachusetts and Utah.
Plus, there was a dead body in 1968 similar to the Chappaquiddick accident in 1969. Romney drove stupidly into an on-coming Left Turn lane in the middle of N524. He hit a Mercedes 180 head-on and killed Mrs. Leola Anderson. She was the 6th person in a 5-passenger car, a Citroen DS.
He claimed to his family and the Andersons and LDS that a "drunk poriest" named "Albert Marie, age 46" was speeding at "120 kph" and "swerved" into his lane. A newspaper article was fabricated. Fictional witnesses were claimed. As late as 2007 and 2009 Romney was out selling this tale.
The other driver was Bishop Jean-Felix-Albert-Marie Vilnet. Not drinking. Not speeding. Not in any way at fault. Born in 1922 in Chaumont. Slandered viciously by Romney for decades.
Google [ romney vilnet ] and you'll get to pics and other evidence.