Associated Press
Shortly before the 2006 midterms, Karl Rove, who was responsible for shaping the Republicans' strategy for the year, talked to NPR about what to expect. Correspondent Robert Siegel noted polls showing Democrats in a strong position, but Rove was incredulous -- he'd found a secret math gave him insights that mere mortals couldn't comprehend, and this math told him Republicans would keep the House and Senate.
"You may end up with a different math but you are entitled to your math and I'm entitled to the math," Rove said. When Siegel said he wasn't sure if people are entitled to their own math, Rove snapped back, "I said the math."
A week later, Democrats won control of the House and Senate.
This week, the perpetually-sleazy Dick Morris has a column in The Hill that echoes Rove's infamous boast (via Kos).
The media is trying to create a sense of momentum and inevitability about the Obama candidacy. One benighted Newsweek reporter even speculated about a possible Democratic landslide.
On Friday, I saw the real numbers. These state-by-state polls, taken by an organization I trust (after 40 years of polling), show the real story. The tally is based on more than 600 likely-voter interviews in each swing state within the past eight days.
The trend line is distinctly pro-Romney.
So, to recap, political observers of every stripe have seen the poll numbers, but Dick Morris has seen the real numbers. Who conducted these secret polls? Morris wouldn't say. Why are the secret polls more reliable than the published polls? Morris wouldn't say. Who paid for the secret polls and wrote the questions? Morris wouldn't say.
But rest assured, based on Dick Morris' sterling reputation and unimpeachable credibility, he's seen the data and Romney's in great shape. Oh, and he's confident about Republican control of Congress, too.
To be sure, the 2012 elections remain very hard to predict, and the possibility of Republican control of the White House and Congress next year is quite real. But when strange media personalities claim to have access to secret, reliable polls, which we can't see but should nevertheless supersede the available data from independent outlets, I recommend caution.
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If he isn't just talking out of his ass (which is the most likely possibility), I'd guess that this is another instance of a Republican believing their own propaganda. Anyone who actually believes one polling organization has the real answers is by definition an idiot.
Tell me again why people like him get paid for this sort of thing?
Exactly, Red. How many times does this guy have to be wrong before they stop listening to him?
I dunno, they keep recycling John Bolton and everyone knows what an epic failure he is?
hmmm, I'm hearing strains of "Trust in meeeeeee" . It seems that the TP/GOP are completely unable to provide anything factual and must lie, hoping that people are stupid enough to believe them.
Sadly, people are plenty stupid enough.
Morris=blood-sucking infection spreading tick.
So he saw super secret information that explains how things really are, shows us no evidence, and tells us to trust him.
That sounds familiar.
The job of someone like Morris is not to present fact. It is to keep the perception that the race is close, so that his candidate's supporters will continue to donate. A blowout predicted in either direction makes people lose interest.
All spin, no fact, end of story.
They're popping champagne corks at Obama campaign HQ.
Dick Morris is wrong about everything. When Dick Morris predicts something, the opposite happens. It's almost a natural law, as reliable as gravity.
If Dick Morris says, "the trend-line is distinctly pro-Romney," the Obamas might as well take their shoes off and settle in for four more years.
I remember seeing something on Hannity's show in late Oct. 2008 about how the polls were narrowing and that McCain stood a good chance of pulling out the election. How stupid and wrong that all was. It's about "exciting the base" and (as Mike... notes above) keeping the donations going.
I like this: "All spin, no fact, end of story." Good mantra.
Those of us "of a certain age" remember the Magic 8 Ball. I suspect Dick Morris still has one.
How is this different from what Harry Reid did?
And 600 voters from multiple states is a *really* small sample size. especially since it is the electoral college that wins, not the popular vote.
Because what Reid said is probably true.
It says "more than 600 likely-voter interviews in each swing state," which is better, but still seems statistically small and likely to have a significant margin of error. But, what do I know? It's been over 40 years since my last statistics class.
Dick Morris' lies are particularly FAT!
Exactly.
Never trust a guy named Dick.
What he has are the numbers of the fixed Diebold machines that will "swing" the election to Romney.