Associated Press
Mitt Romney in Massachusetts in 2002.
There's some debate about which state counts as Mitt Romney's "home" state, but he was governor of Massachusetts, and that's a state he's going to lose badly. That's not unexpected given the Bay State's political leanings, but I continue to think it's a mistake to dismiss this too quickly.
PPP's newest Presidential poll in Massachusetts finds no change in the race from June. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 16 points, 55-39. [...]
Massachusetts voters simply don't think much of their former Governor. Only 39% of voters have a favorable opinion of Romney to 55% with an unfavorable one. They don't look back on his tenure as chief executive very fondly -- 42% approve of the work he did in that job but 46% disapprove.... Romney can't match the Scott Brown formula for being successful as a Republican in a blue state.
If Romney's elected president, he'll be the first candidate to win the White House while losing his home state since before the Civil War.
Now, the standard response is that Romney's lack of support in Massachusetts is entirely predictable and hardly noteworthy. This is, after all, one of the nation's "bluest" states, and Romney is not only a Republican, but an increasingly far-right one.
But to reiterate what we discussed in May, I still think polls like these are noteworthy. Massachusetts voters are, after all, the only folks in the country who got to see Romney's approach to governing up close -- and they didn't come away impressed.
Indeed, during his 2003-to-2007 tenure, Romney failed to impress much of anyone.
"His favorability was basically a straight line down from his honeymoon," said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University's Political Research Center and a longtime Massachusetts pollster. "Sometimes familiarity breeds contempt." [...]
Romney entered the Massachusetts State House in January 2003 with a flashy favorability rating of 61 percent.... By November 2004, voters were souring, and a Suffolk poll found his favorable rating had dropped to 47 percent... By November 2006, as he closed out his increasingly absentee term, his overall job approval rating had cratered to 36 percent.
Thomas Whalen, a Boston University political science professor, put it this way: "To know Mitt Romney is to dislike him. That is the moral of the story."
This isn't about party. Massachusetts has had plenty of modern Republican governors -- Weld, Cellucci, Swift -- and all were more popular with their Bay State constituents than Romney.
This is, I'd argue, especially relevant in the 2012 presidential race, because Romney's arguing he can apply his business know-how to create an economic wonderland, but when he made the same promises in the Bay State, he failed -- Massachusetts' job creation record during Romney's term was "one of the worst in the country," ranking 47th out of 50 states.
This is all generally overlooked, which is a shame because it seems like it ought to be more relevant in a presidential campaign.
Here's the sample question reporters can ask Romney: why are you so woefully unpopular with the same constituents who gave you a chance to lead and were unsatisfied with the results?
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Romney has insisted his time as Governor is not relevant to this campaign.
Romney has also insisted his time running Bain Capital is not relevant except the times when they weren't bankrupting businesses and leaving workers unemployed.
Romney has also insisted anyone who brings up religion is sowing seeds of hate.
And his time running the Olympics is out of order, because if we bring up he bailed out the games with taxpayer funds, it might look bad.
And don't even dare bring up his Cayman Islands connection, his Swiss Bank account or why his IRA account has over a hundred million dollars in it.
So, then, we are supposed to vote for Romney based on...what, his hair? His whiteness? His "looking" more Presidential after a century of movies where Presidents were usually played by blandly attractive white guys?
"His whiteness?"
That's it, don't you know it's all about getting that African-American-Muslim-Kenyan-Communist-Marxist-America hating-anti-colonialist out of the White House!
Don't forget Obama is also a heterophobe who despises white people and Christians.
And he wants to destroy Israel.
Oh,and he's a fascist.
I think that covers everything.
I hear Obama kicked a kitten once. Well, nearly. He looked like he wanted to.
""To know Mitt Romney is to dislike him."
Don't we know it.
I would love to see a poll done that lets us know what percent of those choosing Romney are only choosing him because he is Republican and what percent because he is NOT Obama. I cant think many are choosing him for his policies, whatever they are.
Sadly, people seldom tell anyone- other than their like minded spouse- why they really will vote for a candidate.
This post is very encouraging after reading about the electoral college prediction model done by the profs in Co.:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/22/university-of-colorado-pr_n_1822933.html?utm_hp_ref=mostpopular
Nate Silver has thoroughly discredited this prediction, the methodology used and for its obvious bias: for example, high unemployment levels impact only the re-election of a Democratic president, not a Republican...
Thanks, Jim. My only concern though is their predictions have been accurate since 1980. But I'm not going to pay attention to that and just keep praying for Obama.
Massachusetts is proving to be as damned boneheaded and stupid as Mississippi. Scott Brown leading over Elizabeth Warren? How can people be that damned stupid? Unbelievable.
Welcome to America :
Too stupid for democracy
I don't need a reminder. It hurts too much.
Yes disgusted, the people of Mass.should realize this is for a six year term.He can do a lot of damage in that time.He only started voting and talking like a moderate after the campaign started,otherwise he voted party line like what 95% of the time.Of course he talk's to King's and Queen's everyday does'nt he?
Wait a minute! Since Romney was never actually a citizen of Mass. then ....
"If Romney's elected president, he'll be the first candidate to win the White House while losing his home state since before the Civil War."
Actually, Gore was the first candidate to win the White House while losing his home state.
Now, now. Winning the popular vote, and winning the electoral college vote, is not the same as "winning the White House." It takes winning the supreme court to do that.
"If Romney's elected president, he'll be the first candidate to win the White House while losing his home state since before the Civil War."
Actually, Gore was the first candidate to win the White House while losing his home state.
(pardon the double post)
The only way that Robme Hood becomes President is if the Republicans suppress enough votes.
What is really odd to me is that the polls show Obama way ahead of Robme Hood with Women, Blacks and Hispanics.
But then the poles show Obama and Mr. Liar, Liar, pants on fire neck and neck in the race for President ? Who are they polling to get these results ??
They cannot be polling Women, Blacks and Hispanics because if they were, the polls would show Obama wiping the floor with Robme Hood.
Something is not right here. Just sayin' . . .
He's seriously losing among white men. Yep, race has nothing to do with it, right?
Who are they polling to get these results ??
The MSM would rather not discuss it .
Trust us .
They need a horse race to fill all that valuable air time with blovating talking heads , so that you might tune in and listen to their adverts for drugs you don't need for diseases they dreamed up.
I really have to turn it off some nights , I just can't take it
Wow sick and tired ! That is a great point ! How would they sell advertising time if the truth were out that Obama is waaaaaaaay ahead of Romney ??
Cheech.
On the hype scale it is right up there with hurricanes .
Not to make light of the threat they pose (I lived through Andrew)
But
If you ever lived in a state prone to hurricanes the hyperventilating and every 5 minutes report from the ocean start about 2 seconds after the 5 day forecast puts you within 200 miles of the cone
To honestly answer your question, it is simply the algorithms and mathematical formulas that pollsters use to determine who is a "likely" voter out of the sample of "registered" voters that they speak to. Historically speaking, minorities vote at smaller rates than Caucasians (when you look at percentage that vote comparative to numbers registered to vote). The polls could be accurate, or they could be complete BS - we will never know, as we can't find out how they determine who is a "likely" voter (neither can we determine who will actually show up and vote). It is all predictions (our guesswork if you prefer) based off of historical patterns.
The best analogy for the science of political polling would be weather predictions - the forecasters don't know it is definitely going to rain, they are just compiling all the data available and comparing it to history to make an educated guess.
How do the people of Massachusetts feel about RomneyCare?
It sucks! This is the BIG shhhhhhh, no one is talking about.
When it became mandatory for employers to offer medical coverage for full time employees, they simply went around it by doing away with full time positions and creating all part time positions.
MA has a web-site, thehealthconnector.org (?) Supposedly offering "affordable" insurance. I guess that would depend on your income, $1300./ month for 2 healthy adults isn't affordable! That was a low tier plan, very basic.
It's reminiscent of when they passed the law that is was now legal to "turn right at red lights," except where signs were posted and when implemented, EVERY intersection's light had a sign posted! That was in the early 80"s. Some sign company made a whole lot of money.
Yeah #9.1, that must be what's causing Massachussetts to have that 98% insured rate and the 3rd lowest insurance rates in the country. Rates that are going down 5% at the end of the year.
Miracle: That would be miraculous...if those figures were any where near true, but they're not.
Thanks for your responses. I would think that if RomneyCare was popular with Massachusetts citizens, his favorability ratings would be a little higher. Since that was his "signature achievement" there and all. It does make me a little worried about ObamaCare. But not worried enough to even consider voting for Romney.
Romney isn't unpopular in MA because of his health care law, it is because he raised fees on EVERYTHING in the state. Rachel covered this a week or so ago in a few shows. Nothing makes people more upset than taking disposable income away from them for their necessities (like drivers license renewals, etc).
I think the most obvious point is this--Romney will say whatever it takes to get elected. When he ran in blue Massachusetts, he pretended to be blue. When he runs in the national GOP, he pretends to be red. He may have learned it while evangelizing--keep talking and nod a lot to win them over.
You are right - he will say whatever it takes to become elected and everyone he makes promises to should know that. More importantly his church gives it's blessing to do this. The Daily Beast had this article Aug 7, 2012:
Brigham Young’s Great-Great-Granddaughter on Mormonism and Mitt Romney
He changed his position on abortion to fit the strong Democratic make up in Massachuesetts. Where are the core values of Mr. Romney and his Church?
<em>How do the people of Massachusetts feel about RomneyCare?</em>
Well, in my book, RomneyCare is a mixed blessing. Blessing, yes, because health care/insurance IS available. Per usual, primarily through your employer, but if you become unemployed (I report from personal experience here), the state will help you pay for your insanely expensive COBRA and/or help you get alternative health insurance if you can't wait for your reimbursements. Health insurance is still insanely complicated and time consuming to figure out, and depending on your employer's plan, still damned expensive.
That said, it's head and shoulders above what the rest of you have. At least we have health care and insurance even when we have no job!
Depends which "Mitt" you ask... and which of his (seven?) luxury abodes you're asking about.
Vulture/Voucher 2012
Proving Two Rights DO Make a Wrong!
;-)
The Gore example is interesting, actually: Gore (unlike Romney) was an admirable public servant but lost his home state in 2000 anyway. But that's because Tennessee became increasingly Republican since Gore was first elected to Congress. Massachusetts has been reliably Democratic for a long time; the only way Romney could win even one term was to pivot left. Massachusetts voters would inevitably be disappointed then when they got to know the "real" Romney -- whoever that is!
"first candidate ...since the civil war.."? How appropriate since the republicans seem intent on going back to pre-civil war days when undesirables, AKA non-republicans, could be denied voting rights.
And yes I know the roles were reversed back then but don't tell them they would have to be democrats in pre-war days.Lincoln chased them away from the GOP.
You know that if Swift (and all her Helicopters and 'babysitters') is more popular than you, you're really, really screwed. NH can have him back.