The new Washington Post/ABC News poll asked respondents, "Just your best guess, who do you think will win the presidential election this year, [Barack Obama] or [Mitt Romney]?" It wasn't close -- 59% expect the president to win a second term, while only 34% believe the Republican will win. A new Gallup poll shows similar results for the same question: 58% see Obama as the eventual winner; 38% predict a Romney victory.
Given how competitive the race appears, these are pretty lopsided totals. To drive the point home, I made a chart:
Remember, these results have nothing to do with how the public intends to vote -- this is about predictions, not preferences. And with 10 weeks to go, a clear majority expect Obama win a win a second term.
There are a couple of angles to keep in mind. The first is, if a pollster were to call me asking this question, I'm not at all sure what my prediction would be. Yes, the president probably has a slight edge, especially given the electoral college makeup -- there are simply more avenues to 270 for Obama than Romney -- but there's ample evidence that should give Democrats pause.
Indeed, Romney and his allies will have truckloads full of cash to buy a barrage of attack ads; there are voter-suppression tactics being used in key states; states like Wisconsin and Michigan that looked like pretty safe "blue" wins are suddenly tossups; and two national polls have been released over the last week that show Romney with a narrow lead -- and that's before any kind of convention bounce. To assume Romney's toast seems silly to me.
Second, the expectations themselves may backfire. If rank-and-file Democrats simply assume Obama is likely to succeed, these Dems are much less likely to open their wallets and donate their time.
These polls suggest most Americans think the race has a clear frontrunner. I'm not sure where such certainty is coming from.
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The only people who think the race is close are people who make a living off the horse race.
I wish you were right, but with being outspent 3-1 and the voter suppression in key states, I am not holding my breath.
I'd like to believe that not all of the GOTP'ers are ignorant, bible thumping sheeple - I think some actually realize a Robme/Ryan Presidency would really be the undoing of this nation and are frightened. :>)
I'm hoping Obama wins, but here in the DC Metro area, we are seeing about 5 Romney/Romney SuperPac ads to every Obama ad. I know that this area typically votes Democrat so the DNC may not be spending much money in our area, but is it like this everywhere around the country also?
I am just afraid, like some of the "people" I have been talking to lately, that these people get their choice for who to vote for from the TV ads. I am not at all sure that Obama CAN win unless he and the DNC can combat this "assault" on our eyes and ears from the Republicans.
It's an important point. It does matter if the general consensus in the battleground states is that Obama will win. The GOP voter who thinks that is less liable to go to the polls- fatalism is not a great motivator, and no one wants to back a loser.
My more conservative friends take a martial view of this kind of combat- they have a view that all is fair, but there are harsh costs that go along with view of the political struggle. The beginning speech of George C Scott in the Movie Patton sums it up:
Romney is sounding like a whining loser complaining about the assaults on Bain, unwilling to expose himself to the sting of battle by making a clean breast of his tax returns. Americans despise this stench of a coward.
The question is more importantly what these poll results are in the battleground states. Here in my deep blue state, you will get a near unanimous response on who will win, but our state doesn't matter. Here, you never see anything about Romney or Obama on the airwaves. You'll see plenty of GOP stickers for the Senate and House races, but oddly, NONE of them have a Romney sticker on their car. Exception- I saw my first last week.
I still haven't seen one.
It's weird living in the deep blue and knowing the race is close, not understanding really why when Romney is so icky and Ryan is worse. Weirder yet is hearing the rhetoric of the right, the anger and strangeness, feeling the tension out there when in my neck of the woods losing my choice will never happen and can't really picture any kind of tea party takeover either.
Of course I have come across many "living in a bubble" republicans, but they are all of the nice, confused sort. : )
Oh, BOY! I have to take you guys out in the world! I travel all over this country and I can tell you there are a LOT of Romney signs and bumper stickers out there!! Try Texas - I haven't seen too many Obama stickers and signs there! Or in Colorado (outside Denver), Oklahoma, South Carolina, Georgia......
Democrats are known for sitting home and pouting. And if they think it is certain that their side will win, they are probably more likely to do that.
Considering that, this is not encouraging news.
Rollo, you might be right, but I would rather be Obama than Romney in this race.
Why would you pout if you think you are going to win? Most people like being on a winning team. My biggest fear is that we have not seen the deluge of Koch and Rove negative ads yet. It is going to get very dirty indeed. My biggest hope is that people will get sick of it all and vote for Obama just for spite (beside the ones who like him). You should NOT be able to buy elections in this country and I sincerely believe that if Romney wins, that will be the case. Of course I live in
Wisconsin so I've seen it first hand...
Rollo, that is my fear. Republicans are pretty universally frothing at the chance to defeat Obama and to destroy his legacy. Democrats aren't frothing, except the more knowledgeable ones are terrified of what a Romney presidency would bring. Too many Dems are not that engaged, and if they think "of course he'll win" and don't bother to vote them maybe he loses.
"Democrats are known for sitting home and pouting," ??? Is this a personal observation? If not, I seem to have missed the "Pouting" study.
I agree... somewhat Rollo. But actually what they're doing isn't sitting home pouting. From my experience, People I know whom don't vote.. can't, due to work ( their second in most cases) and can't get time off work to go vote ! Which in my humble opinion, if an employee is working whilst polls are open should be allowed time off to go vote without worrying they are going to lose their 1st, 2nd or 3rd job for doing so. However something tells me the GOP are counting on that fact !
To ANYBODY even thinking about not voting please do vote. There could be nothing worse than dems defeating themselves, also think of the joy of defeating this radical bunch. Shutting them up is going to be pure joy for most of us. keep remembering no one is perfect, but this particular repub group is truly nuts!
Encourage everyone you know, insist they vote. Offer to help get them to the polls. Offer to find information for them for early voting or absentee voting. I am telling everyone I know we MUST vote so that we show we are the MAJORITY and re-thugs can not BUY this election. I am talking to people at my hair salon, talking to the clerks at the grocery store, the waitress at the restaurant. Everyone! A lot of people have reacted in surprise when I tell them about the abortion plank , the doing away with medicare, the ending of medicaid and food stamps. People are shocked! Of course, I am stunned that large groups of people don't appear to be paying attention. Educate and encourage everyone you come into contact with.
My husband is convinced the media led polls are purposely keeping the race as appearing close or else no one would continue watching all the political driven shows if the outcome was pretty much known.
Make sure he votes, because reality is a bit different.
And none of us can afford to become complacent. Get out and vote and make sure you encourage all your friends and family to vote as well.
People also believe that Gov. Romney will "save" Medicare and that the President "gutted" work requirements in welfare. Maybe a third believe the President isn't an American citizen. Heck, something like 6 percent think the Moon landings were fake.
My point? Americans can be dumb and are almost always low-information.
Very few voter's actually know what the stakes are in this election.All they know is what they hear on the evening new's.I just read an article yesterday that many voter's that favor Obama are not going to vote because they do'nt have any faith in government,it does'nt work anyway.That plus voter supression and the money flowing into the republican campaign's is what bother's me.
Ha, quite honestly I have NO FAITH in the government either!! One only has to look at this "Government" the past four years to see that.. It's called the "DO NOTHING CONGRESS" for a reason, and I do know what's at stake, and I do vote, but it doesn't negate the facts !!! America should be fed up with being held hostage from the Internal Taliban.
Pollsters Shmolsters~~~~Intrade has yet to be wrong.............
Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012
More Sharing Services
55.8%
CHANCE
Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012
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43.9%
http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/
Would that be the same Intrade that that had Hillary winning the Democratic nomination until well after Super Tuesday? (Curse you Bill Frist for sneaking the Illegal Internet Gaming Act into a ports bill, thereby making it impossible for me to open an account when she was at 63%!)
Yeah, it's always "right" right before the election the same way the polls the day before the election are always "right." The problem with Intrade is that its got a lot of Brits on it, and the gap between what Brits know about American politics and what they think they actually know is epic.
I always have to laugh a little at the hysteria over which side has the most money for the biggest bombardment of political ads upon the masses. Don't you realize how many people these days skip happily over ALL commercials with the use of their DVR systems?
It would be interesting to see how many swing state voters own these systems to give a more accurate picture of just how important TV ads are anymore. It's very much like in the last election when pollsters couldn't poll cellphones, so they ended up with one-sided landline polls (which inevitably were dominated by seniors) that were far from what the real story was on the ground.
People pay more attention to the BSC games than they do to the Presidential race.
It's always best to keep your underdog mentality as it sharpens your game. I am hopeful that the Dems will see the importance of this election to their own future and that of their children. I am hoping for a clean sweep back to control of both houses. This would enable the Pres. to enact the types of reforms needed without putting us all back to the dark ages. That is what is at stake. Make no mistake about it Cong. Akin was speaking their language. Ladies your voting rights could be next, these extremists know no bounds and they are skilled at organizing. That's what happened in 2010, the House and all those Gov. races. Wake up!! Trans vaginal what? Put an aspirin between your knees? I wish I was making this stuff up. I'm not, it's real and it's 2012.
Absolutely true and lyin ryan is right beside Akin writing the legislation on rape and redefining rape and anti contraceptive rights ( no IUD , no morning after pill etc ) and anti abortion and personhood amendments. Akin's big mistake was talking out loud about what is going on behind closed doors in rethug circles.
It would be interesting, now that you are at a blog with actual staff, to see how this has played out over time. I know this public prognistication question has been asked in prior elections, and my recollection is that it generally is a self-fulfilling prophesy -- who the public perceives as the likely winner does, in fact, win. But my memory could be wrong. And it may not matter since there haven't been all that many really close elections other than 2000 recently.
Months ago on the Lawrence O'Donnell show, a professor from either MIT or Harvard was the guest. This professor has mathematically projected the winning candidate in a presidential election since Reagan. He predicted that Pres. Obama will win.
Of course.... that said, we still must get the VOTE out! We still need to contribute whatever each of us can afford to the Obama 2012 campaign. I am a former GOPer, hard to believe I ever fell for their lies! However, since '04 when I registered as an Independent, I have voted straight Democrat. I am an unlikely Liberal, I know. Upper middle class, business owner husband, mother, grandmother, cradle Catholic and Cuban! After doing research, staying informed, reading, listening, etc., I have come to the conclusion that Barack Hussein Obama best represents my values and the values of Christ!
While I am definitely rooting for Obama, I also believe he's the likely winner. Obama is more likeable, he has the incumbent advantage, he's a fantastic campaigner, and despite what the Republican party wants you to think, Obama is actually the more moderate, centrist of the two candidates. He also has a record to point to, whereas Romney is doing his best to avoid talking about his record and his positions. That's not to say it's a sure thing, but if the campaign keeps going the way it has been, I think Romney is going to have a hard time. The Republican party has been alienating important consituancies right and left with boneheaded comments (women, immigrant groups, etc.).
Things will get clearer after the first debate. Romney has a lot to catch up, and one of two things will happen: (1) he will fail miserably or (2) he will succeed in defining himself. From all what I have seen, (1) is the more likely outcome. You can only coach a person so much, and Romney is Romney is Romney, and IMO, he is his worst liability.
I want to point out I've seen in several media outlets that Obama is expected to win. Kathleen Geier at the Political Animal, made the case a couple days ago that "the economy is improving just enough (albeit just barely), Mitt Romney is a rotten enough candidate, the racial demographics of the country are continuing to change in a way that favor Democrats, and Barack Obama is a decent campaigner." And I have agreed with this because really how could Mitt the Lying Liar, to borrow from Sen. Franken, be elected.
But when GOP leaders in Ohio & PA and Speaker Boehner have all said that they are counting on voter suppression to win the election and there is very little knowledge of that fact by the public, that makes me worried.
On the flipside I know some "swing" (white middle class socially conservative) voters that are passing along Romney jokes about his lying and saying that they like what he says now, but that's not what he said last year. To me this could indicate that they hate him too much to vote for him.
It could come down to which of the two Romney voter suppression initiatives works best. The intentional efforts to prevent likely Dems from voting, or the unintentional suppresion of conservative voters who don't believe Romney is really one of them. It could also be seen as the difference between which candidate is seen as most "foreign" to voters the black, secret muslim, European, Hitler loving, communist or the uber wealthy, mormon, tax avoiding, RomneyCare creator, closer of businesses and ender of middle-class jobs.
“and two national polls have been released over the last week that show Romney with a narrow lead -- and that's before any kind of convention bounce.”
So, what? That’s what happens in close elections. The majority of national polls and swing state polls that were released over the past week still had Barack Obama in the lead. Plus, Barack Obama is leading in the majority of swing state likely voters polls. The electoral college decides the election, not the popular vote. Nate Silver, at 538, said it is bad for Mitt Romney if he is still trailing in the majority of polls. He also said it may be a “bearish” sign for Mitt Romney, because he didn’t get much of a bounce after picking Paul Ryan.
Plus, most of the polls that have shown Mitt Romney with a lead nationally, have a right-wing slant. The new Washington Post poll has Mitt Romney leading by 1 point. But, Mitt Romney has led in the majority of the Washington Post polls, since 2011. Mitt Romney has trailed Barack Obama most of the time, in the majority of other polls.
Nate Silver says he thinks the democrats’ panicking over voter ID laws might be a bit overblown. He said it would only effect about 1% of the vote, and Barack Obama is more than 1 point ahead in the majority of swing state polls. Plus, in case you haven’t noticed, Mitt Romney is the one who is panicking, and his acting desperate. Candidates don’t act like that, when they are winning. Also, these polls where they ask voters about who they think is going to win the presidential election, have been pretty accurate, the past several presidential elections. So, it’s not like the ’s predictions have never been right.
I’m tired of this hair on fire, @!$%#! Democrats are well aware of voter I.D. laws, and all the money that’s going to be spent to destroy Barack Obama. Most independents think Barack Obama is going to win re-election, too. It’s not just democrats. According to the polls, the republicans are less confident that Mitt Romney is going to win, despite all the money, and voter I.D. laws. There must be a reason they feel that way. To assume democrats aren’t paying attention is silly. Assuming Barack Obama is toast is just as silly.
I, personally, am not that much worried about the Republican SuperPac spending advantage. Partly because of what's been already mentioned - too many people nowadays automatically zip past any and all commercials - including political ads. The SuperPacs have been active for nearly two months and, as yet, haven't seemed to have any effect.
Voter suppression is cause for greater concern; but it has to also be recognized that Democrats won many, many elections when the only period for voting was on Election Day itself. It's going to boil down to how much voters want to get to the polls; aided as much as possible, by Democratic GOTV efforts. I'd suggest baby-sitting services be offered at local churches or neighbors' homes, that sort of thing.
The last poll I saw of registered voters had President Obama in the mid 50s and Romney in the low 40s. That was nationally, not solely "swing" states. If we can actually achieve that, or better it, Mr. Obama will not only have a second term, but we should also have a Congress that will, mirable dictu!, work with him!
Talk about Republican heads exploding...
. https://www.facebook.com/ellej29?ref=tn_tnmn Here is a link to information on the GOP and the Democrats. There is a marked difference. A GOP win would be a disaster to this country...back to the same failed GWB policies but on "STEROIDS". Those are the words of former President Bill Clinton.
If you are in a state where there is voter suppression...fight it! If you are denied the right to vote...vote a provisional ballot..but most of all GET UP, GET OUT AND VOTE! Don't ever think your vote doesn't count...It most certainly does.
Please re-elect President Obama in November and vote the obstuctionists out so he will have someone to work with on the policies he proposes.
Don't be placing your bets. Remember Dewey Vs FDR? It's not over until its over. Sometimes poll are wrong. Sometimes polls are corrupted. People who do these polls know what part of the country to contact and what districts vote Republican and Democrats. They know who to ask to get their results. I could run the same poll in Texas and Romney would win. Poll don't mean a whole lot since they only ask small groups of people. The only poll you can rely on is a national poll that ask the majority of the people in the US. Otherwise polls don't mean a whole lot.
These predictions are merely another facet of the vote suppression campaign tactic. Make it harder to vote, kick more people off the rolls, shorten early voting in Democratic areas, lengthen in Republican areas, train people to intimidate minority voters at the polls, put out predictions that'll convince Democrats their votes aren't needed... plus imagine there will be robo-calls giving misinformation on polling places, early voting, dates and the classic shortage of voting machines in key Democratic areas. Voter registration, making sure people have ID, transportation, information, GOTV efforts in the extreme are absolutely crucial
I would also suggest making contact with your local Democratic campaign headquarters and finding out how to help. Go and volunteer several hours per week and definitely help to get people registered and help with transportation to the polls. The baby sitting idea is a great idea. Also help educate people how to participate in early voting or absentee voting.
I'm afraid this is a result of Democrats being lulled into thinking they DON'T need to mobilize and that it's not that close - so maybe I don't need to bother. All other polls show a the Candidates neck and neck race - the latest I saw with a 1 point spread - when you ask "likely voters"...so this who do you THINK will win is telling. I think it's a case of "I think he'll win anyway, so I won't bother."
Also, many "likely voters' that are Democrats will show up at the polls and due to Voter Suppression laws will not be ABLE to vote...it will definitely have an affect. PA is not prepared to issue the 750,000 or 9% of the voters who do not have acceptable ID. They only budgeted to MAKE 75,000 ID's - if that tells you anything. Many of their offices are only open 1 day a week to even GET the ID. Hope you can get off work THAT day, and that it's properly staffed, and that they haven't run out of their 10% of needed ID's available...
First, national polls don't matter. It's the decisions made by voters in a handful of counties in swing states that will matter.
Second, voter suppression in red states is only a small part of the problem. The Republican vote-rigging on Diebold voting machines will likely have a far greater impact.
Third, the vote at the top of the ticket won't matter at all if we get the same makeup in Congress that we have today. In my opinion, it is FAR more important to get Democrats elected to the House and Senate.
Women favor Obama by a comfortable %. Blacks 0% for Romney. Ahead with Latinos.
But the race is tied. I don't get it.
Let the Gop spend all their money trying to buy this election.(Shame all that money could help so many people.) Obama will win if we all get off our asses and vote.
The polls are only predictions, actual votes count.
Take as many dems as you can to the polls with you. Ask people are you registered
and have proper ID? (voter suppression in OH and PA) Ain't that a B-----. Dragging women back to the rules of the 60's. Legitimate rape?
What women would vote for these jerks? Better yet who would vote for these foolish people?
I pray divine intervention shows up and Romney/Ryan lose.
VOTE Obama/Biden 2012