After a month in which initial unemployment claims appeared stuck at too high a level, a new report from the Department of Labor this morning offered even better news than expected.
First-time claims for state unemployment benefits declined by the largest amount in more than a month in the latest week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number of initial claims in the week ending Sept. 1 fell 12,000 to 365,000. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for claims to fall a slight 1,000 to 373,000.
To reiterate the point I make every Thursday morning, it's worth remembering that week-to-week results can vary widely, and it's best not to read too much significance into any one report.
In terms of metrics, when jobless claims fall below the 400,000 threshold, it's considered evidence of an improving jobs landscape, and when the number drops below 370,000, it suggests jobs are being created rather quickly. We've only managed to dip below the 370,000 threshold seven times in the last 22 weeks, but the more encouraging news is that we've been below 370,000 in six of the last nine weeks.
And with that, here's the chart showing weekly, initial unemployment claims going back to the beginning of 2007. (Remember, unlike the monthly jobs chart, a lower number is good news.) For context, I've added an arrow to show the point at which President Obama's Recovery Act began spending money.
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I'd like to point out in case you haven't seen the estimates yet, Steve, that the ADP number for August looks to be just over 200k jobs added. I think some people in the GOP might be wondering how to spin that news...
Even if only 1 job was added we still are in better shape then we were 4 years ago.
I believe it was Karl Rove last week that suggested the latest Jobs Report due Friday could be "Obama's Clint Eastwood".
PS: Will you be posting the video from last nights show of all the Republicans that vowed to obstruct and work to defeat Obama from the very night of his election?
I'm going to be nervous about that jobs report tomorrow.
It's sink or swim, then. If the convention can be capped with a good jobs report, things will be looking good.
Bad news for those wanting to use a misery-scale in their efforts to get elected!
"Hi, I'm Mitt Romney - pay no attention to good economic news, Obama is still that dastardly interloper in the White House, and I can fix this lousy nation!"
What a platform to run on, let alone the one Mitt's fellow Republicans actually wrote down that declares War on Women and more privilege for the wealthy! -Kevo
Is it just me or does it feel like Democrats have the wind to our back?
Steve, if I do as you suggest and "smooth" the chart, initial unemployment claims weekly are flat (around 372000) since Jan 2012. National Unemployment average has been 8.1-8.3% since January. Jobs added per month is averages out to around 190000. The difference (15000) isn't making a dent in the labor force participation rate, with something like 30 million people simply opting out of even looking for work.
GDP is supposedly "growing" but my suspicion is that is being driven by productivity reporting and the stock market (which may or may not be structural growth).
All around not great news.
The graph shows the political history of the last 3 1/2 years.
In 2009, slowly and painfully standing up from Bush's fetal position.
In the first 3/4 of 2010, recovery stalls; increasing anger and disillusionment; GOP wins big in the midterms.
From late 2010 to early 2011, things pick up a bit; Obama scores big in the lame duck session.
Early to mid-2011, the economy sputters and stalls. GOP calculates that they'll soon take over, so they refuse any compromise past end-2012. In the process, we nearly see a default on the credit of the United States (I still can't believe that happened).
Late 2011 to early 2012, things pick up, the GOP panics and their candidates push the social issues. Romney barely scrapes to a win, despite the other candidates being obvious fools and charlatans.
First half of 2012, recovery stalls again, and Romney (advised by Rove) formulates his "are you better off" strategy.
But now it looks like we're back on the upswing, and their strategy is backfiring. Oh well. Reap what you sow, motherfkers.
I wouldn't breathe a sigh of relief. This could indicate the actual unemployment percentage has gone up. And the idiots in the press would have a field day with that.
Hey CONS, let's do some ARITHMETIC...
Name the Obama policies that added trillions to the debt and the amounts.
Then deduct that amount from the current $16 TRILLION.
The rest is GOP spending.
Spending to fix the GOP F'ups is still GOP spending and NOT Obama's fault so do not count those.
INTEREST ON the GOP created debt DOESN'T count either.
All progressives should start asking that question and doing that ARITHMETIC.
The CONS will NEVER have those numbers because they DO NOT exist.
I bet all you will get is NOTHING but insults and ridicule.
This would make me feel better if I didn't know that a lot of employers are capping new hires at 30 hours. By doing this, they don't have to pay benefits or unemployment insurance. If someone in this situation loses his/her job, that person is ineligible for unemployment.