President Obama's speech tonight will be the capstone of the Democratic convention, and I suspect tomorrow morning, there will be plenty of chatter about how it went. But there will be another major news story coming out roughly nine hours after the president leaves the stage.
At 8:30 a.m. (ET), the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its new jobs report -- one of only three such reports between now and Election Day -- and depending on what it says, the job creation and unemployment figures are likely to get a lot of political attention.
In fact, the Romney campaign is practically salivating at the possibilities.
Romney spokesman Ryan Williams said the campaign will use the jobs numbers to remind voters of Obama's economic record, including the August 2011 jobs report, which counted zero new jobs.
"Barack Obama is the first president in modern history to preside over a net job loss, and we intend to highlight the failure of his economic policies during and after the convention," Williams said.
Keep a few things in mind here. First, the initial estimate for the August 2011 jobs report was a net gain of zero, but the revised and more accurate total turned out to be a net gain of 85,000. Holding onto this as a credible argument, more than a year later, is both silly and wrong.
Second, the "net job loss" talking point is patently ridiculous.
And third, it's a little unseemly to see a major-party presidential campaign hoping desperately against the economy.
Regardless, this is worth keeping an eye on because it's likely to be a major topic of conversation tomorrow. If the job news is encouraging, and there's reason for at least some optimism, Obama and his Democratic supporters have a positive story to tell on the heels of a successful convention. If the job news is discouraging, Romney and the GOP will have a new reason to go on the offensive while trying to step on a possible post-convention bounce.
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"Patently Ridiculous" should be the Romney/Ryan campaign slogan.
"Barack Obama is the first president in modern history to preside over a net job loss"
Really, you sure about that one?
So under Bush in the first term (same amount of time as Obama) he had lost 1.7 million private sector jobs but added 771,000 government jobs.
Not only is this statement untrue as proven by Steve here (Shrub had a net loss too), but the reality is that he damaged the economy so badly that neither Obama nor anyone else could have avoided a net job loss this soon after taking office. It takes a bit of time and distance to drive a bus out of a ditch; Bush put the bus into a canyon.
Spread this one around!
The implication of the job loss data point is supposed to be that the President had control over the levers of employment by virtue of his policies and they resulted in a net loss.
How can that possibly be true? It isn't, but we cannot even begin to discuss this without a discussion of what happened in Bush's LAST term and where the momentum was. Any attempt to compare first terms misses the point entirely and plays into the hands of the lie.
On the other hand, "the U.S. economy actually lost 1.2 million jobs in July?"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/08/05/wait-the-u-s-economy-actually-lost-1-2-million-jobs-in-july/
From above article...
So look at the long-term trends. For the past one-and-a-half years, the U.S.
economy has added about 152,000 jobs per month on average. It’s a modest, but
certainly not terrific jobs recovery: According to the Hamilton Project’s jobs calculator, the U.S.
economy won’t get back to full employment until 2025 at this pace. Still, it’s
probably more accurate to watch that long-run average than to fixate on any one
monthly jobs report
You are confusing "Breaking News" (which this is not) with "Econ 101" which you clearly need to take.
Shhhh. The right thinks Ayn Rand was an economist and they obviously have no idea what a theory is. After all economic theory is confusing to a group that sees the myth of Creationism or Intelligent design as a theory equivalent to the scientific theory of evolution. To them a belief counts as a theory with no evidence needed.
Just what role do you think a president plays in job creation? We are not a centrally planned economy and we should all be grateful presidents have less power than is needed to halt tides, alter the earth's orbit, and have that much to do with the economy or am I missing something in the Constitution?
Another airball, shooter. There's a reason you hear the words "seasonally-adjusted" with every jobs report. Try going to your local high school or community college and taking an econ class.
One of them was obviously Sh**ter losing his summer job as a carnival geek.
"Seasonally adjusted" is just another euphemism for fabricated/made up/statistical BS.
Robert, Administrations can kill entire industries with a stroke of the pen. The NLRB tried to kill a Boeing plant in SC. The coal industry is under assault. Fishing is rigidly controlled, environmentalists are killing California agriculture.
Democrats don't appreciate how much harder it is to build, rather than destroy. But then again destroying is what the left does naturally.
Statistics and seasonally adjusted is a just another conspiracy by liberals to tweak numbers.
Never been done in Republican presidencies. snark off.
http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1985/08/rpt2full.pdf page 40 shows seasonal adjustment concept - in 1884 - Reagan, the great prez of Teapublicants (who don't work for public, but business).
Warning! Extreme dizziness may result from listening to the political spin any jobs report causes.
As shooter has demonstrated facts are meant to be "interperted" as seen fit rather than proven.
Don't get your hopes up, folks about tomorrow.
Thank you, Eeyore
Anytime.
In the GOP alternate universe, does it really matter what the job report says? If it's bad, they'll inflate the numbers. If it's good, they'll still claim the numbers are bad. Remember? They don't let the fact checkers dictate their campaign.
So far Obama and the Democrats can take credit for all the jobs and the Republicans can take credit for 0 jobs.
Yes, the Republicans did nothing to help and they are proud of their record. They are not in the business of helping the country move forward. They are in the business of making Obama a one term President.
I hope all the unemployed people can appreciate all that the Republicans have done and they have done it while sitting on their hands.
It's truly nauseating to fully understand that this demand slump (and unemployment) is a political problem caused by Republican obstruction and intransigence and nothing else.
Well the slowness of the recovery could be pinned on their obstruction, but the entire demand slump would be more a result of the massive amount of jobs lost overall. Not that their obstruction didn't contribute to it.
I am hoping my friend who's had a horrible last few years (nothing to do with Obama). Under water/short sold her condo, cancer diagnosis and treatment, then her job was moved to Bakersfield. I really hope gets hired for this new opportunity opening up for her.
She registers Dem, but seems to be among those blaming Obama. She is surrounded by close family and partner - Repubs. She says she can't vote for either candidate. Well, maybe if she can get this new job she will forgive Obama for what happened to her, even though none of it was his doing. She is one that is apolitical, but does vote.
Prayers. Good Thoughts. Crossing fingers for her and everyone else needing a permanent job.
Well, I hope the best for her, but I'm glad she's wavering in California and not in Ohio.
True, we are pretty solid for Obama.
On the other hand, the ADP report today was for +201K jobs. ADP and Labor don't always agree, but they do tend to trend together.
But to temper that optimism, the Manufacturing Index went down in the report yesterday, Tuesday, whenever it came out. Which often points to job market weakness. A bit of a wash. All we can do is hope for the best tomorrow morning!
You beat me to it, DC. Also all the analysts are going to be watching Obama's speech very closely tonight - Obama gets to see the jobs report before it is released to the public so they expect him to give "clues" tonight, although he can't release the actual information!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48925030/
http://www.cnbc.com/id/48928692
whaddya- The Dow is way up today (240 now) on news of the ADP report. Try not to engage in too much hand wringing. A little optimism never hurt the economy (or election!)
I wish it was up because of the jobs report, but the stock market rarely reacts to increases in employment.
It's up because Draghi is saying he's going to put another bandaid on the European problem and save the financial markets' butts again! Look at what bank stocks are doing!!
AGAIN they (the banks) are playing games with the US economy, this time on "high risk" bets in Europe!!
oncearepublicam- The Dow's early rise was being attributed to the much better than expected numbers by CNBC, as analysts believed it to be an indicator of a good report tomorrow... I'm just passing it on. =)
August 2011 was derailed because of the Tea Party and their debt ceiling debacle.
MR. PRESIDENT ,
You need to stand up against the lies the right is making on the National debt.
They are accusing you of spending $6 TRILLION during your term.
I know for a fact that they are all GOP policies that caused it.
Fixing the GOP screw ups is not your spending Mr. President it is theirs.
Stimulus to save the GOP screw ups are LOANS not spending.
INTEREST on the GOP TRILLIONS of debt is NOT yours to be responsible for.
MR. President,
They will say the Democrats had a “majority”.
But we all well know the filibustering, obstructing GOP has the “CONTROL”
The unfunded wars were GOP started wars based on deception.
Mr. President,
The $16 TRILLION National Debt is GOP Policies of the past 32 years.
Stand up for your record and denounce those accusations.
Use their debt clock against them.
Mr. President,
Use ARITHMETIC against them.
Democratic policies that added to the National Debt = ????
Deduct that from $16 TRILLION
The balance will equal GOP DEBT.
This is NOT blaming the GOP or BUSH.
This is ARITHMETIC Mr. President.
Steve has posted thiss chart several times, and with good reason. It's the most powerful way to illustrate what really happened.
By the way, did I mention that unemployment numbers are a lagging indicator—the way things were, and the stock market is a leading indicator—the things will be?