We talked on Monday about Gallup daily tracking polls, and the extent to which Mitt Romney received no meaningful bump from the Republican National Convention. I mentioned at the time, however, that much of the electorate is already locked it, and Democrats shouldn't be too surprised if they run into a similar problem.
And where do things currently stand? The Democratic convention just ended last night, so we don't yet have a complete picture of the impact, but here's the same chart I ran on Monday, updated to show nearly two full weeks.
Yes, this chart is dull, but that's not my fault -- the results in the Gallup data just haven't budged much. On Monday, Aug. 27, the tracking poll showed Romney with a one-point lead, which soon switched to a one-point lead for Obama, which led to today, with Obama's lead growing slightly to three points.
By any measure, that's not much of a convention bounce, at least not yet, though Obama's convention appears to have done slightly more to help his standing than Romney's convention did for him.
That said, there was one other tidbit in the new Gallup numbers that's worth noting: Obama's approval rating is up to 52% in the newly-released results, which is the highest it's been in a very long while. The convention has had a very modest effect on the president's lead over Romney, but for now, it appears to have boosted Obama's standing overall.
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Strange since the difference is glaring. I was watching the "Rise of the fourth Reich" on history channel just now and boom there was evidence of Priests helping SS members escape from Europe after WWII. Then I remembered how blatantly racist some churches are today. 'nuff said?
Blatantly racist churches, not an oxymoron to be proud of.
I'd like to see that horizontal -V- on the right side of that chart get really, really big. Then I can get a good night's sleep again.
OMG, I so agree with you. I hate to wish my life away but I need November to come quickly, if only for my anxiety level. I am hoping Nate Silver on 538.com is correct in his predictions.
You and me (and Norcalgal) and many others. If these self professed "Independents" are still wondering which man they want to elect, I would love to have a sit down with them. How in the hell can you be an active (I) right now and not have an answer? Well, that's a whole other story.
Your horizontal -V- on the right side getting really, really big is my biggest hope right now. If the unmentionable happens on Nov. 6th.. man, I have a lot of things to figure out.
Thank you for your post. It couldn't have been simpler or more true. Have a great weekend!
I can't get too excited or disappointed over national polls. The state by state polls are the ones I'm more interested in.
We can probably thank Bill Clinton for that movement at the end, since it is too soon for Thursday night's speeches to have made an impact. That won't be the end of the DNC bump, though. And expect similar bumps after each debate.
Pundits keep calling this an extremely close race. But Romney has maybe a 1 in 4 shot at this thing. And his odds won't be getting any better. Let's face it, the chances of Obama saying something stupid in a debate are nil. Romney? Who knows.
I'm a big fan, but need to register a rare rebuke. The Gallup horserace numbers constitute a 7 day average. This means that a one-day movement of two points is actually quite big. Imagine that things have been entirely stable over the period when the chart was flatlining -- Obama 47, Romney 46. To move suddenly to 48 vs. 45, you would need a 14 point swing on one day to get that sort of movement. That's a lot!
The larger movement in approval numbers reflects a three-day average. If that new gap holds, I'd expect more movement in the horserace numbers in the days to come.
To elaborate on this, the head-to-head is a 7-day average, while the approval rating is a 3-day average. So the approval rating is both more sensitive and more current than the head-to-head, which could be a sign that the bump is just starting to register and could gain steam. But don't assume that the 2-point movement is a result of a huge number for Obama on the most current night of polling in the sample. There could have been a really good number for Romney at the back end that just dropped off, which would have a similar impact on the average. At this point, we just don't know what's going on. It could take a couple weeks for all of this to play out.
I should not be surprised any more at how large a portion of the country will vote for a hunk of limestone rather than a black man, but the shock never seems to lose its zing.
I'm amazed that Romney is even doing as relatively well as he is. It further amazes me that what he and his party stand for and who his backers are; that many "middle class" would vote for him. Their lives will not be any better if Romney is elected. Those supporting Romney should read up on Adelson and the Koch bros. and ask themselves, among many other questions, is this the direction they want our country to go?
That's because many of these middle classes are going around with fingers in their ears, going lalalalalala. Truly. I know a few.
The apathy and lack of attentiveness is mindboggling. If there could be one short period daily (or even weekly) where actual news was made a priority for people.
If we could have a Cronkite to report about what happened in Afghanistan today. We are too far removed from the war. So removed the presidential candidate glossed over it with sound byte at the challenger's convention. Strong military would be a minimal topic for a bit more elaboration in a time of peace.
We have troops in Afghanistan, still being killed, so not mentioning them only spotlights the lack of attention to them and their sacrifices. Only talk about important things? Holy crap, we give more attention to the newest t.v. shows than who will be Commander in Chief and meet with other foreign leaders.
Rmoney is not fit for office, our troops fighting overseas is an afterthought. Then we have the business experience of making money from cutting jobs and the incoherent budget tax cutting that only makes debt worse. No, arithmetic doesn't lie.
Those numbers (Obama 48%, Romney 45%) look like Gallup's 7-day rolling average numbers. If that's so, then the bounce could be much larger than what we see today since they are still using data from several days before the DNC started.
I wish the DNC had played the "Promises Kept" video just before Obama spoke last night, and would play it nationally in prime time, perhaps just before Football Night in America. It is an excellent reminder of major accomplishments of President Obama that some folks seem to have forgotten or be unaware of. And the way it it organized - flashing back to the promise made in the 2008 DNC and then forward to the completion of each promise - is perfect.
Two things come to mind: some of these promises were kept because the GOP could not block them, such as giving the order to get bin Laden (I'm sure they'd have blocked that if they could have). And promises to pull us out of the Great Recession would have been - and still can be - kept without the constant obstructionism in our Do-Nothing Congress.
Let's check that chart after the first debates!
Steve -- Sorry, but this is a second request on the same data: we need error bars/one sigma/number of individuals surveyed -- some sense of the simple numerical uncertainty in this poll. Noting on your plot that this is a time average, too, is essential. Please, for all your readers who care about accuracy!
tx--hv/bc
Can't you just go to Gallup and get the numbers yourself? He told you where they were and is one of the few with an absolutely sterling reputation. So you comment has an underlying implication doesn't it. If you "care about accuracy" YOU go look and report back to all his readers who know he wouldn't print it otherwise.
President Obama is saying it's all about YOU, and well, the mitster knows it's all about MITT!
However, one thing the president doesn't understand about higher education is that if anybody received a higher educational degree, but nobody recognized it; would it matter?
The video was removed by UMG? I can understand the importance of intellectual property rights better than anyone. Please believe me without me going into my life story, but for Christ's sake UMG this song is from an album that is three and a half decades old, and incidentally I happen to own the album!! Oh, never mind. Much of the time UMG just sucks, or is it just youtube!?!
I know nobody will see this post, but I'll know that I re-posted this video/song in tribute to President Obama's DNC speech on 9/6/2012 being about YOU!
ah yes people decided in one day, over night, nine percent of them that they now APPROVE of the Presidents handling of the country. Quick to jump on that one...foolish but hey whatever floats your boat, next week he more than likely will be back to 43, but hey savor the moment, I would
So I watched your coverage of both conventions. The one thing that struck me the most about the differences between the two convention is that the Democrats were much more emotional and fervent. I saw a LOT more tears on peoples' faces as what was said struck them to their very core.