With six weeks to go in the 2012 presidential election, the polls look quite good for President Obama. All of the usual caveats still apply -- there's still time, Obama's modest lead is not insurmountable, uncontrollable events are impossible to predict, etc. -- but Mitt Romney and his supporters are understandably discouraged.
Well, at least some of them are. A surprising number of Republicans have decided to go a different route, arguing that all of the evidence pointing to Obama's advantage is wrong.
The Romney campaign and other Republicans say polls showing President Obama with a significant lead over their candidate are inaccurate.
They argue many mainstream polls skew in Obama's favor because of sample sizes that base 2012 turnout projections on 2008, when Democrats -- and Hispanics, blacks and young voters in particular -- turned out in record numbers.
"I don't think [the polls] reflect the composition of what 2012 is going to look like," Romney pollster Neil Newhouse said in an interview.
Frustration that polls are skewed in favor of Obama has escalated among some on the right in recent weeks. One website,www.unskewedpolls.com, recently began re-weighting the mainstream polls to closer track the demographic assumptions of conservative polling outlet Rasmussen Reports. The re-weighted polls all show Romney ahead in the race, with leads of between 3 and 11 percentage points.
So, every national poll released over the last several weeks -- literally, all of them -- show Obama leading Romney. Unsatisfied with these results, the right has decided to fiddle with the figures, and wouldn't you know it, the new-and-improved polls all show Romney leading Obama.
It's not just random cranks (see Morris, Dick) arguing all of the polls are unreliable; this idea is repeated widely in Republican circles.
There are three main problems to this line of thought: (1) there's no reason to think the polls are skewed; (2) even the Romney campaign doesn't seriously believe the polls are wrong; and (3) epistemic closure is probably helping poll denialism.
Let's take these one at a time. First, pollsters realize their livelihoods are predicated on getting the best possible results, and the notion that every major news organization is deliberately publishing bogus poll results is pretty silly.
Not every Republican pollster finds fault with the publicly-available surveys. Dan Judy, vice president of North Star Opinion Research in Alexandria, Va., told National Journal, "A lot of the media organizations this cycle seem to have gotten better."
"Most of the media polls are good, professional polls," Judy added, "in terms of making sure that the way their samples are constructed are fairly consistent."
Second, we know Republicans, in their heart of hearts, don't seriously believe the polls are skewed against them. If they did, Republicans would be feeling very optimistic about Romney's chances, and clearly, they're not. On the contrary, GOP officeholders, candidates, and pundits seem quite dispirited with 42 days to go.
Indeed, if internal Republican polling, which presumably wouldn't be part of the larger conspiracy, showed Romney with a consistent lead, he and his campaign wouldn't feel the need to constantly reboot itself with new messages. Just the opposite is true -- if they were confident they're winning, Team Romney wouldn't see the need to change course at all.
And yet, the only consistency to the Republican campaign right now is how inconsistent it is, constantly trying new messages, attacks, and themes, hoping to find one that might stick.
And finally, it's worth appreciating why the right is having this reaction to all of the recent polls. I suspect epistemic closure has a lot to do with it. Remember, for many Republicans, it's extremely easy to avoid objective information -- they can read a conservative newspaper in the morning, listen to conservative talk radio during the day, come home and watch Fox News before going to bed.
These folks have very clear, preconceived ideas, which are rarely challenged. They know, with certainty, that President Obama is the single worst president in American history, whose every move has failed miserably in every possible way.
And so when every national poll shows Obama winning, it's gut-check time -- they can either believe Obama's political standing is fairly strong or they can believe there's a grand conspiracy involving rascally news organizations and biased pollsters. Take a wild guess which option is winning.
We're talking about voters who are accustomed to being told what they want to hear, with every passing day reinforcing those beliefs with more evidence of how right they are. Is it any wonder they see polls challenging their assumptions, and reflexively assume the polls must be wrong?
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I keep hearing how close the election is. But when you look at how the electoral college is shaping up, it isn't close at all. A look at Realclearpolitics electoral map and you see that among the so-called toss-up States, Romney leads in only one. And among the solid, likely, and leaning States, Obama is beating Romney 247 to 191.
The TCM poll tracker has Romney even down from the 191 he's been at all summer, with Obama back over 300 after dropping to 246 before the convention.
if the vote was 100 million to one in favorite of the republican, they would find a way to fix the count.
Voter ID laws are a real, new effect on results. I have not heard of anyone weighting their swing state results with likely-permitted voters. Under various scenarios of court action, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida polls could be accurate for people who plan to vote... I'd really like to see a per-state quantitative look at voter ID and citizenship laws.
Polls require historical data in order to determine things. There's no historical data on what these Voter ID laws will actually do, since this is the first time they've been put to use. We can look at voter-caging, and list-scrubbing as was done in Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004.
I'm not usually a conspiracy theorist but I keep getting this nagging feeling that the Romney/Ryan Campaign has the election rigged and is working backwards (like Romney's taxes) to make it look reasonable that they won the presidency. What else could possibly explain such an absolutely inept campaign run by the GOP.
My concern is that there is an ulterior motive to the GOP minimizing the size of Obama's lead:
A closer race makes stealing the election less obvious.
As long as hacked electronic voting booths, deceptive ballots, and discriminatory election board activities don't get too carried away with themselves, no one will question a close (+5%) "victory" for Romney. But if the pre-election polls were averaging a +10% lead for Obama, people are going to wonder how the hell Romney pulled a last-minute 15% swing.
IMHO, the GOP is already pot-committed to stealing this election... they're just worried about covering their tracks now.
Reality has never been a strong point for the overly religious and bigoted. Fortunately, there are fewer of them than they think. Remember, Dubya NEVER clearly won a presidential election.
Numbers are the way to stop GOP election shenanigans. Be not complacent! VOTE! Especially for Dem Reps and Senators... it's the Houses of Congress that make laws.
So if we think that Faux News only preaches to the already converted Repubs you would have to think that the Mitster would think this as well.
Therefore all the money flowing into swing states for advertising will not be of Faux.
Don't polls actually have some basis in facts and science? No surprise that the Republicans would take issue with it.
A romney win is a man made catastrophe.....
Guys, I think we are missing the big picture here. I believe that republicans will do all they can during this election to supress vote. Polls are about people that will likely vote, however, if some of those people are not allowed to express their constitutional right , this election might be lost and republicans will have a strong argument about their idea of skewed polls and will chant "I told you so!" making an argument that will impact all future elections.
What can one say against such stupidity. Pres Clinton is worried about the voter suppression tipping the scales in Romney's favor. This one might go to the Supreme Court. Please all you folks without proper IDs, go get them some way. Ask your church to help with financial support if there is a fee.
Imagine the chaos when millions of people across the country show up at the polls and are told they can't vote. Karl Rove's wet dream...Srsly.
Kommandant Karl strikes again.....
I think we should report that Romney is leading. What better way to get our base energized or just use the FEAR FACTOR! It would wake up those who have not yet committed to vote. We need all we can get to counter those that will be blocked, lost or just tossed away in the FL glades.
...and somewhere in Ohio ('04)....probably Wadsworth.....
i'm lovin' it for at least three reasons: 1. it keeps the wingnuts doin' what they been doin' (and me hopin' they keep on gettin' what they got) 2. it makes it easier to convince those who haven't been paying attention that these guys are nuts. and 3. it's gonna be all that more pleasurable to read the post-election work of people like jennifer rubin, fred barnes, and matt continetti.
The number of people who believe that the mainstream polls are skewered against Romney are probably not an insignicant number. These are the same people who think Obama is not eligible to be President, he is not a citizen, he a socialist, he hates America, he is a Muslim...etc... . If the election results reflect the mainstream polls, it doesn't mean their polls showing Romney winning were wrong, but confirms their belief that there is widespread voting fraud. To these people it confirms their worldview that Clinton and Obama are illegitimate Presidents, and of course George W. Bush just barely escaped the dastardly attempt to steal the 2000 election by the Al gore and the Democrats.
Wingnut Kool-Aid...cheap and eeeeeeezzzzzzzzeeeeeeeeee drinkin'!
Hugs and kisses from your sponsors at FOX "News".
Slightly off the topic, but I find it incredible that the Republican's latest false "outrage" is that the President said that some of the issues in the middle east caused by a small number of people is a bump in the road somehow so incredibily offensive.....
Vouchers for Medicare? Continued tax burdens on the middle class? Murdered abortion doctors, pledges to never increase revenue, regardless of the needs of the country, not to mention the writing off of 79% of our country as lazy, dependent people with their hands out.....THIS THEY DON'T FIND OFFENSIVE? But they are outraged by a single comment that happens to be true. In the long history and long future of relations with the middle east, we will get through this.
We're dealing with children. Obviously if they were winning the polls would be a shining example of truth and justice. I suggest not looking at the polls and being sure to vote. Polls don't win elections, votes do.
It's actually sort of interesting. Some of my republican friends who vote republican party lines no matter what have said that they will NEVER vote for Obama. But since they will also never vote for Romney, they are just going to not vote this presidential election. Heh. Good enough, I suppose. ;)
Brilliant way to finish this well written blog piece.
Reminds me of the 2008 election. A friend of mine who lives in Utah actually heard the right-wing local news guy (all news in Utah is right wing) say on the air about local elections, "Now don't panic, but, it looks like the democrats are winning." Not actually thinking that if that is true then those listening had probably voted democratic.
I am hoping Faux has to say the same on election night.
What goes around, comes around,
If I were a voter in Florida, I would make damn sure I understood every word in the referendums, If they want to play that game, play it back, (Take Your Time),,,,,,
just want to point this out since i didnt see it responded to on your show tonight... but, hugo chavez is neither a communist nor a dictator. he is an elected president that values a strong social setup. anti capitalistic. more to the point anti-american-capitalism. because we were messing with his countries government and the venusuelans didnt like it. i dont understand how that false assertion could be on a voter registration survey? but it is atleast important to note that south america is not our enemy and never has been and never will be if i have anything to say about it, and that chavez is not a communist dictator.
venezuelans. sorry
and i was wondering if these far rightwing super pacs that are releasing these muslim brotherhood videos are trying to stoke some fire with muslims the way they did with that wierd anti muslim video last week during the riots. because that is also how hillary clinton wound up getting garbage thrown at her in egypt right? some youtube video saying clinton was working with the muslim brotherhood? just saying it sounds fishy. like maybe the reps want to start something with iran to scare people into voting romney. and the thought of it makes me queezy.
As in Australia, I think the time has come to limit electioneering to maybe two months before the election. The time and money being spent is obscene and interferes with true governence. Our elected officials have admitted all the time they have to spend raising money for campaigns takes away from their job. Quite frankly I am exhausted with what seems like years building up to this moment. It is a distraction from more news worthy information that might actually help people in their daily lives. Let's go after quality of life issues, crime prevention, drug problems, education, gangs, bullying, homelessness, pollution.