
If I had a nickel for every time Mitt Romney has said the unemployment rate has been above 8% throughout the Obama presidency, I'd have, well, nearly as much money as Mitt Romney.
Today, however, the talking point died. The unemployment rate fell unexpectedly, dropping from 8.1% to 7.8%.
As we've discussed before, decreases in the jobless rate are not always good news -- the figure sometimes falls when discouraged Americans drop out of the workforce altogether -- but that's not the case with the new data. The employment-to-population ratio went up, job creation went up, and the labor force went up.
In other words, the drop in the unemployment rate is heartening, not discouraging.
And given that there's a presidential election in 32 days, the figure carries a heavy political salience. In February 2009, President Obama's first full month in office, the jobless rate was 8.3% and climbing. As of today, it's 7.8% and falling.
Literally every day for a long while, Romney and his allies have said Obama must be a failure based on this metric alone. The Republican said in Wednesday's debate, "We've had 43 straight months with unemployment above 8 percent."
It's always been a ridiculous argument -- blaming Obama for the jobs crisis he inherited and helped alleviate is absurd -- but now it's also a bogus one.
Of course, the news also seems to lead to a follow-up question for Romney: if unemployment above 8% is proof that Obama should lose, does an unemployment rate below 8% prove that Obama deserves to win?
Live by the unemployment rate; die by the unemployment.
Update: The list of conservatives endorsing the nutty argument is growing. Ezra is not amused.





but that's the case with the new data. It is early for me here on the West cost, but do you really mean that in NOT the case?
I read it like you first time aswell, but it is written correctly in context if not in grammar, if you take out the hyphenated sentence it reads
"decreases in the jobless rate are not always good news -- -- but that's the case with the new data."
last part of the text should rather read "but are in the case of the new data," or just "but are in this case"
Why does no one discuss Congressional obstruction? How many jobs bills did the Republicans propose again? How many did they allow cloture for?
Agreed. Republicans have killed every attempt by the president to create more jobs. They want our economy to fail. For them it's all about regaining control of the White House. They couldn't care less about the people who are suffering because of job loss. They've been absolutely shameless.
No, Republicans do not want the economy to fail. We just disagree with the Dems priority of public sector jobs vs. private sector jobs. Giving our federal tax dollars to dysfunctional state governments (the so called Jobs Bills) with gigantic budget deficits is not sustainable vs lowering the heavy hand of higher federal taxes and regulations which would spur private sector jobs which is sustainable.
private sector jobs have been falling.... if they hadnt the report would probably look better.
Hank
You seam to have forgotten the tax breaks and the deregulations under Bush. Where is the trickle down from that Presidency? O ya those jobs are over sea, with millions of dollars in the Cayman Island banks.
You also forget the first words out of the Republicans in 2008 - we will insure that this President only has one term. No the Republicans do not want the economy to fail just the current President, the fail of the economy is just collateral damage, as the Republicans put their party before the country.
One last point - Police, firemen, school personal, military personal, our Representatives, our Senators, the U.S. Supreme Court Judges, and the job Romney is going after, President, these are all public sector jobs.
Ok make that two last points - Just because a company is in the privet sector does not mean is can do a better job, it just mean the person who is actually Doing the work, is getting paid the minimum, while the CEO, paid the big bucks, has delegated every thing off of their plate and can now spend the day partying with the other CEOs, comparing bank account size.
No I value a private job more than a public sector job because I have to pay the salary, healthcare and the pension of a public worker vs. a private worker which I do not. I live in CA and our state is spending much more than it is taking in, much of it is due to an explosion in unfunded public worker pension liability. In fact Brown has put on the ballot an increase in sales tax and income tax in a direct nod to the teachers union to cover their unfunded pension liability. So in a state with one of the highest tax burdens, Brown is seeking to raise taxes even higher to pay for teachers pensions.
So just as businesses move their jobs to other states or countries where it costs less, I will be moving to a state with lower taxes if CA votes to raise our taxes in Nov.
I beg to differ, sir. I, too, live in CA and the "unfunded public worker pension liability", as you put it, is not an "explosion." The burden public worker pensions places on our State's budget has been growing slowly and steadily over the last 3 to 4 decades. The only thing 'explosive' about it is the speed with which the Rabid Right turned it into a cause célèbre for their base. Further, many of the benefit enhancements were placed on the ballot and approved by voters. I know this because, as I say, I live in CA and have voted here for the last 40+ years. The problem is that they made sense back in the day when we thought CA would always be the Land 'O Opportunity. No one ever saw a day when things would go south, so to speak, and the debt would come due. Short-term planning and all.
As for valuing one type of employment over another, I assure you, it don't matter a lick if your job is public or private, if it feeds your family. I'm fairly certain that if the chips were down and the only job you could get to feed your family was a public one, you'd snatch it up in a second. I know I would.
They are already saying the numbers are rigged. ARRGHHH sick of GOPTs loons, crazies and shysters.
Sorry Steve,
I don't believe the unemployment rate until conservative bloggers tell me what the "real" number is.
It's got to be at 22% or 38% or 89% by now!!
You mean we're not ALL out of work? 100% unemployment? Quick-- call FOX "News"...I need this confirmed!!
Steve - What about the U-6 #?
U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.
Sept 15.7%
Aug 14.6%
Jul 14.2%
Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.
"Alas! how little does the memory of these human inhabitants enhance the beauty of the landscape!" Henry David Thoreau. My "photo" of the week.
NEW talking point = this is not what a REAL recovery looks like! Uh huh. Maybe the uptick in consumer confidence was people actually getting jobs. I also like the 'real' unemployment rate would be 11% if they counted EVERYBODY...yes but wasn't it 15% a couple of years ago? Let's BY ALL MEANS count apples and oranges.
By "everybody" you must mean people who are out of work not of their own volition and cannot find a job....so they've given up. That would count most people over the age of 50. And yet, it's WAAAAY over 8%.
The U-6 rate was 15.7% in Sept, up from 14.6% in Aug. See above.
As soon as I saw it was below 8%, I knew what they's say, and here it is on RCP:
@jack_welch: Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers
If it had of been a Republican it would be a dramatic success... probably standing in front of a banner " Economy Recovered"
Saw the Jack Walsh tweet, though God that man is a twit.
You will notice the numbers for the past two months have been revised up so it is likely the unemployment rate has been below 8% for a while now. That seems to fit with what I have been experiencing around here.
yes, that is what i mentioned on another blog. With the revisions, and the numbers are always revised in hindsite, we have probably been under 8% for a couple of months and with hiring for the holidays coming soon, we might see another drop a couple days before the election.
And if we had been allowed to invest in infrastructure the last 2 years , which is the normal thing for a nation like ours to do , UE would be pretty close to the regular rate , gop dysfunctional gov strikes again
Its their political party OVER america every time , sorry , but you do not see dems being this twisted , or I would not be a dem
I wish oh I wish ..someone would ask at the debate
Mitt , where was the stock market January of 2009 (around 7500)
http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/20/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
Mitt , Where is the stock market now? (around 13,500)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/stock-futures-rise-modestly-ahead-of-much-anticipated-us-jobs-report-for-september/2012/10/05/1dde2f44-0edf-11e2-ba6c-07bd866eb71a_story.html
There's a talking point for you . Go eat $hit and die
And when Mitt says the middle class isn't feeling it yet, Obama should point out, "And that's exactly why your policies are a bad idea. Trickle down economics doesn't work."
and when romney says " that was in spite of your anti free market policies "
Obama can say ,," no , that is in spite of all your pals stashing american made profits in caymen / swiss bank accounts"
C'mon. You know it didn't. It should. But it didn't.
Jack Welch tweets conspiracy theory over better-than-expected jobs number - The Tell - MarketWatch
See? I told ya.
Agreed. It won't die. They've created their own reality.
We're talking about the nominee that brought back Death Panels... Romney knows that people aren't informed. He will lie to them and tell them the number went down because workers have given up.
Given up, yes, Mitt. The winter homeless die-off, from lack of having a warm garage elevator to sleep under...
How much you want to bet, Rachel, Mitt will slip--on purpose probably--and keep saying over 8 percent...
All's well in a Romney tell ...
along with faux news and their graghic dept
along with faux news and their graghic dept
I'd bet that the unemployment report counters any harm the debate might have caused...unless Mitt continues to engage in the big lie strategy...which he's pretty good at 'cause he's a big liar!
This must be a god trend because the tea party saying the numbers are rigged and a lie. Its disappointing when America gets good news the RNC can't bring themselves to cheer.
but why wont they ever mention that the voting system is rigged, or being so. A really dangerous thing is happening now with regard to voter fraud but they never mention anything about it.
Republican talkings points never die, they live as trolls between elections. Get them wet, they grow taller and run for public office.
Mitt: I love it here, look at our trolls, they are just the right height.
FYI... Scarborough is saying that the jobs numbers and the unemployment numbers do not make sense taken together. I'll leave that to you.
What has always concerned me is that the Obama people have never responded to the Republican charge that President Obama *promised* that the unemployment numbers would not go above 8% if the stimulus was passed. President Obama never said that - ever.
In fact, the origin of the quote seems to be a report put out before President Obama was inaugurated by Christina Romer and others that showed the results of their model for what the stimulus would do. There were plenty of caveats in their presentation and nobody ever *promised* anything about where the unemployment rate would be.
"FYI... Scarborough is saying that the jobs numbers and the unemployment numbers do not make sense taken together. I'll leave that to you."
The payroll numbers come from a survey of employers while the unemployment rate comes from a survey of households. They are TWO DIFFERENT SURVEYS. The +114,000 and 7.8% numbers don't HAVE to add up.
Joe's a shill...plain and simple...really SIMPLE.
Joe has the highest rated show on MSNBC. None of y'all on here or precious Rachel can beat his ratings or popularity.
I'm pretty sure they aren't allowed to bring their own cheat sheets or notes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhFzZqkQS7Y
Pay close attention to his right hand as he reaches the Podium.
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/clip/4006904
Here he is collecting his evidence.
Romney is not only a liar but a Cheater as well.
Someone said it was a handkerchief - that he used at the end of the debate.
In the second clip, I see him collecting paper off the podium - but I think they both had paper they could take notes on during the debate.
Willard had to have something to keep all of his lies organized!
If Obama didn't self inflict himself that debacle in wednesday debate the election should be over this morning. Romney and the GOP can hate these unemployment number the way they want but it won't help them now, this is the unemployment stupid
So if voters voted according to their own self interest, then whites and asians should vote for Obama and young workers, blacks and hispanics should vote for Romney. Ha! Wouldn't that be interesting?
MItt is unemployed. He should be exiled to Haiti with deep apologies to the Haitians.
A lot of contradictory data, but overall good news. There will be the usual conspiracy theories from conservatives but if you were going to cook the books, these numbers would be a particularly clumsy way to do it, so it tends to prove their veracity more than their falseness.
One note, governmnet jobs were revised from negative to positive 63,000 for July and August a turnaround of almost 90,000. This proves once again that the loss of government jobs as the key to a slow recovery has been vastly overstated.
Romny's business experience as a CEO of a venture capital organization allegedly makes him an expert in the economy and in business (jobs, taxes, budgets, debt, excellent communicator, trustworthy and customer focused). We are told he runs his campaing as a CEO, if I were one, I would be ashamed to be called one. Romny has more in common wiht Jeff Skilling and Scott W. Rothstein. His economic talking points are a ponzi scheme; his healthcare and social security reform is a kinetic catastrophy for those who are not multimillionaires. Would at least 1 CEO come out of the closet and speak against his methods! I know y'all are hiding.
Ahhh, right on schedule: The October Surprise!
But, the good kind, right?
This is good news for the US economy and American workers, right?
You betcha! ;-)
Wednesday Debate:
Mendacity vs. Audacity
Mendacity won.
Fact vs. Fiction
Fiction won.
Like the last report, these newest job numbers are also incorrect and the revised numbers will come out in a week showing the above 8% unemployment number is stil valid. Romney didn't just kick the presidents butt in the debate, he put the boot completely inside and kicked what was in the large intestine.
Do you have something against good news for your nation, Sminton?
So, exactly where is the line? Where is the line positive indicators can cross before those rooting for failure have to admit that Obama is moving the country forward?
But there is no line, is there. If the field isn't delineated, then you can keep moving the goal posts, can't you. Just like Romney.
Coffee, Sminton, like the rest of the low information
factually challange baggers, birthers and blamers
hate for Obama, is muck stronger then their love
for America.
As long as Obama loses, the 47% are collateral damage,
acceptable in thier eyes as long as Romney wins.
Hopefully someone can clarify something about this. When it comes to predicting job gains, the ADP numbers are generally higher than the govt numbers. But then the government numbers get revised, and lately they seem to be getting revised upward.
Once this revision takes place, I would be interested to know if the new govt numbers are aligned with the original ADP numbers.
I've never been able to figure out why the discrepancy between the ADP job numbers and the govt job numbers to begin with.
Also, how does ADP collect this data. Not everyone gets a paycheck through ADP, so they have to have other avenues. For instance, in order for them to accurately predict new jobs added, they would have to know the numbers from the other payroll processing companies, and also from those companies that do payroll internally.
So I'm just going to leave this here. In summary, it is a graph of unemployment rate over Obama's presidency. Also, Unemployment, as of today, is under 8%.
Whatever way you turn it, a 114,000 jobs gain in one month is pathetic. I understand why it's all about passing the magic 8% line, but that means little other than perhaps a psychological boost. What you'll see now is several states cutting unemployment benefits, so, hurrah, we're below 8%, forget about the unemployed. They're just a statistic.