After the new job numbers were released this morning, Fox News' Stuart Varney hinted at a possible conspiracy theory: "Oh how convenient ... five weeks before the election."
Prominent businessman and Romney backer Jack Welch was less subtle.
In terms of responding to Welch, I think Austan Goolsbee struck the appropriate tone -- "Love ya, Jack, but here you've lost your mind" -- but the underlying argument underscores the larger issue of rampant far-right denialism.
Long-time readers may recall that this has come up before. Earlier in the year, when job growth was quite robust, many prominent voices on the right responded to the news in predictable fashion: they insisted the Obama administration was manipulating the data for political reasons. It just had to be a conspiracy.
In the ensuing months, the job totals deteriorated, and the Republican conspiracy theorists moved on -- that is, until this morning.
Of course, this dynamic only reinforces the point. If you're arguing, "Bad news on jobs is proof Obama's a failure; good news on jobs is proof Obama's manipulating the data," you're clearly an intellectually lazy hack. No serious person can credibly argue this way.
For the record, there is absolutely zero evidence to suggest the unemployment data has been manipulated in any way. The monthly report is compiled by career officials at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who are walled off from political influence and who've done nothing to have their integrity called into question, and if Republicans are going to raise the specter of an elaborate conspiracy theory, it's incumbent on them to offer at least some kind of proof.
But the larger problem is that this kind of twisted thinking isn't limited to job numbers.
I'm reminded of something Alex Seitz-Wald wrote earlier this year, when Fox News became heavily invested in the argument that the job numbers were illegitimate:
If it weren't improper to psychologically analyze strangers, one might think the Fox hosts are displaying a textbook example of cogitative dissonance here, a psychological phenomena in which people who hold on strong belief about something invent (sometimes farfetched) explanations for new evidence that conflicts with their existing views. Obama is bad for the economy, the jobs numbers show the economy is doing better, so there must be something wrong with the jobs numbers.
But doesn't this sound familiar? The polls look bad for Romney, but rather than deal with the evidence, Republicans assume there's a conspiracy to "skew" the data.
Climate scientists present evidence of global warming, but rather than deal with the evidence, Republicans assume there's a conspiracy to scare the public.
Forget politics for a minute and consider this thesis: it's just not healthy for an entire political party to be so uncomfortable with reality that they deal with it, frequently, by cooking up elaborate and implausible theories, based on no evidence whatsoever.
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destinyfacts!I'm searching for Jack Welch's previous criticisms of BLS unemployment numbers. Still searching . . . still searching . . . . . nope. Can't find any. What a surprise.
"Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives."
--- John Stuart Mill
I love how the right will say things like this, yet when they attack the President they cite how "unemployment has been over 8-percent since..." You can't have it both ways, boys.
Whenever I hear the Republicans coming up with some vast conspiracy theory like this one, I feel that they must be projecting - this is the sort of "trick" that they would come up with so it must be that everyone else works just like they do.
I'm stealing this quote for FB later: "If you're arguing, 'Bad news on jobs is proof Obama's a failure; good news on jobs is proof Obama's manipulating the data,' you're clearly an intellectually lazy hack."
I will then be using it as needed for conspiracy theories about gas prices, polling data, health care, education, military spending, repeal of DADT, immigration, global warming, etc.
One always wonders whether certain people actually BELIEVE the stuff they assert or merely count on their audience believing it. It appears that we should replace the old "stupid or lying?" exercise with a new one. I propose we call it "Paranoid or Inciting?"
I am a professor and get student evaluations every semester. This is exactly what happens to me. Whenever my students give me any negative feedback, I have noticed that there are major flaws in the methodology. Whenever I get positive feedback, the methodology has completely changed to one which is sound and rigorous. Why can't my university just use proper methodology everytime? It makes me look bad, even though it's not my fault...
Jack Welch = Jim Lehrer
This country is plagued by old people who continue in public life well past their expiration date, many of whom are currently serving in Congress.
Then let us hope those young whippersnappers they elected in 2010 have a short shelf life...
Great...you both insulted seniors and continued the Democrats equivalence of a conspiracy theory....excuses.
1) If the Republicans make up conspiracy theories when they don't agree with the facts, Democrats make up excuses.
2) It was Jim Lehrer's fault Obama loss the debate (despite Obama speaking longer than Romney).
3) It was that Obama had to be distracted by something. Don't know what but I'm sure that was it.
4) It was that Romney lied about everything, Obama couldn't believe it so he was stunned and lost the debate.
5) No, Mr. Science, Al Gore, said it was Obama inability to adjust to the altitude...that's why he lost the debate.
Shall I go on...?
it's not Lehrer's fault for being 78 years old. it was the people who chose him for that position.
Lehrer had nothing to do with Obama's performance.
Re: #7.2
I agree that inability to adjust to altitude is just silly.
I get sick and tired of the "Democrats make up excuses" statement.
In order to troubleshoot a problem or error, the first thing that needs to be done is to identify the "Root Cause". Only then can you hope to resolve the problem and improve the process to prevent a repeat.
Identifying "Root Cause" is not "making excuses".
1) Lets see when Obama was ahead in the Polls, the Republicans had a conspiracy theory on the legitimacy of those number. Job numbers are positive and rather than Republicans being happy for the American people, they have adopted a new conspiracy theory that the numbers were fixed. Really - conspiracy theories are getting old. By the way there are 3.2 million jobs as of the end of July that are unfilled according to the Department of Labor. The reason unskilled labor -- American Jobs Act would have created job training opportunities.
2) President Obama lost the debate because of his performance not because of Jim Lehrer's. Romney won on presentation but did not win on substance - there was none. In addition he lied repeatedly - Republicans may consider lying a win, I personally do not.
3) What Al Gore said was just plain silly.
The reality is if you can't define the problem, you can't create a solution.
I'm sure Jack Welch didn't have this same management philosophy when he was leading GE. Imagine " Sir, I have to report our sales have gone down this month". Welch - "that can't be true when I'm in charge so your numbers must be wrong".
I must have missed the "Management by denial" section in his book.
Amazingly enough in his time GE always beat by one penny, never two or three, and never a loss.
Maybe we should say these GE guys will do anything.
my above post was incorrect after i looked it up
he was exactly ON the numbers, not up by a penny. I put the right information below.
Sadly, you didn't have to look for a tweet from crazy Jack Welch or go to Fox to see the latest conspiracy theory from Stuart Varney, you could have watched today's Morning Joe crew shamelessly question the validity of the report.
Projection? Welch was famous for manipulating reserves of the insurance subsidiaries at GE to make the numbers work to show quarter over quarter growth at a steady rate for years.
Reminds me of the GOP's noise about voter fraud while dabbling in it.
Exactly!!
.
Denial is strong in the Republican.
the numbers go up and it's Obamas' fault, numbers go down and its data manipulation.
I'm a Conservitave so the lack of reality in such "thinking" ...
... I don't know ....
The last surprise I got from something the Republican said or did was my lack of surprise for what the Republican did or said.
.
How much you want to bet Welch starts raving about black helicopters in 3..2..1..
Repug government philosophy in six words - "heads we win, tails you loose".
If it doesn't fit the ideology, it must and will be denied.
"We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality —— judiciously, as you will —— we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors …… and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."
Ya know. Rugby is Football without rules. For these guys there can be no referee. After all having a referee means you have to play fair.
People who think this way think all people think they way they do. I'm dishonest, ergo, all people are dishonest.
“During the heart of the Jack Welch era,” writes Martin, “GE met or beat analysts’ forecasts in forty-six of forty-eight quarters between December 31, 1989, and September 30, 2001—a 96 percent hit rate. Even more impressively, in forty-one of those forty-six quarters, GE hit the analyst forecast to the exact penny—89 percent perfection. And in the remaining seven imperfect quarters, the tolerance was startlingly narrow: four times GE beat the projection by 2 cents, once it beat it by 1 cent, once it missed by 1 cent, and once by 2 cents. Looking at these twelve years of unnatural precision, Jensen asks rhetorically: ‘What is the chance that could happen if earnings were not being “managed’?”’ Martin replies: infinitesimal.
GE had large insurance subsidiaries and by manipulating reserves for expected losses, Welchhad a handy pot to dip into to keep earnings on his trajectory. It was really simple.
Yes, in the post-Vietnam era, no CEO of a major business ever cooked the numbers better than Welch did in an "honest" way.
Sorry, but with 57% percent of Americans believing that the economy is improving--sounds like the job outlook is good to them.
Let them yell all day. Americans root for other Americans, thats why this blathering always turns people off. If Obama manipulated these numbers, the manufacturing jobs number would have been much higher.
At some point in the near to mid-future, denialism and violent rhetoric are going to reach critical mass and there will be trouble. I'm not sure if an Obama win will be the trigger. There's only so much reality you can shut out before the facade you've created for yourself cracks. People react differently to having their cognitive dissonance shattered. In the case of the extreme right wing, I don't think it'll be pretty. They've put enormous effort into creating and sustaining their virtual reality. Bigger things fall harder and etc.
I got this e-mail from a friend this morning:
Interesting: this was posted under my comment about the GOP being unhinged on a wing nut video being circulated last night:
“and WELL armed people ready to irradicate the socialist scourge that has invaded our country.
you dumb f-ck weak libs better watch the f-ck out when the revolution you so desperately want actually kicks off....”
Godwin’s Law has been revoked. And Spell Check, but I digress.
irradicate = eradicate + irradiate? ;)
I guess that I’m out of touch with my fellow Americans. I think that the candidates were fairly close with a slight edge to Romney, because the threshold was very low for him; all that he needed to do was not make a gaff. I saw his manner as desperate and aggressive; he mauled Jim Lehrer. If Obama behaved in this manner, he’d be another angry black man. As expected Romney did not fail to disappoint with his continuously shifting positions and his obscuring of the facts, if’s great fodder for the ads.
I think that the media went ballistic in their decrying POTUS, Obama isn’t the Titanic on its maiden voyage. He was on target with is talking points. Nonetheless there are three points that should have made to Obama:
I was somewhat disappointed with Obama's lack of spark, but I'm nevertheless gobsmacked at the media describing Romney as "exciting" and other positives. To me his eyes looked bloodshot and were watering, and he was excessively blinking like someone desperately trying to stay awake. And that frozen smirk! Disgusting. And what a wimp Jim Lehrer was.
I have to agree- I did not see Romney winning clearly- he came out aggressively, for sure and he needed to do that. In that sense he met the standards as opposed to surpassing him. I always tend to ask my mom what she thinks of the debates, because she is truly representative of the undecided independent voter almost every single election and she doesn't follow the news the way I do, and she HATED Romney in that debate. She hated the way he rolled over Jim Lehrer and talked down to the president. She said that she could totally see him in a business office yelling at his underlings for no good reason as a result. She said that when Obama went over time, her perception was that he was polite and professional. She said that Obama made some good arguments and seemed calmer to her. She also doesn't understand why everyone is making a big deal out of Obama looking down a lot, she said that he does that a lot anyways. She remembers it from the debates with McCain (I don't, but she does). Overall, her impression was that the debates were extremely boring. She almost did not watch the last half hour because she would have rather been doing almost anything else. Furthermore, she recognizes (as most voters do) that politicians lie, and the level of Romney's mendacity in that debate was proven in her fact checks the next day, she wants to be an informed voter but doesn't see a point in informing herself until after the debates. She said that the media is blowing it WAY out of proportion. I saw a similar issue.
Plus, what is EVERYONE talking about two days out of the debate? Mitt Romney wants to fire Big Bird. The Big Bird meme has exploded even more now that the debate is over- that is far and away a negative to Mitt Romney. It reinforces the heartless business man image he has and Obama has encouraged. At most, this debate was a boost with Romney and his base. I think in the end, it will mean next to nothing, especially if Obama can destroy Romney in the next debate. We will see what happens, but MSNBC's freak out was completely unwarranted.
Who "won" the debate does not turn on instant polls, but on what people are discussing the next few days. What I hear being talked about are 2 things--Big Bird and Romney's problems with the truth. There were no good gaffe moments to replay on tape, so the visual that will ultimately sink in about this debate is Romney's cold-hearted dismissal of a beloved childhood character.
They just can't accept the fact that God has President Obamas' back.
I'm sure we are all happy about unemployment dropping below 8% but given there were only enough jobs created to keep up with the population growth doesn't point to a strong recovery. Last month saw the lose of 14,000 manufacturing jobs which points to a continuing problems with the recovery. As CNN report on the night of the debate most jobs created are an average of $27,000. Many who have jobs and lean left will believe the recovery is happening, those who are unemployed or working part time will feel differently.
That is simply an effect of the economy. If you have 8% unemployment, then the hiring employee is in the drivers seat. That is he can say this 35,000 job we are now making it a 27,000 job, take it or leave it for the next person in line. the employer gets a deal. if it were 3% unemployment, the same job might go for 40,000.
That is just economics Les. That is the way it works. When the economy completely recovers, those numbers should go up.
just read the whole article on huffington post.
still think it was big bird on the grassy knoll...
What is becoming obvious to those of us who don't suffer from such visceral derangement toward our duly elected President is that these FOX creatures look at President Obama and see Mike Myers playing Dr. Evil!
The healthiest thing one can do for another loved one is to help that loved one turn off the sophomoric FOX NEWS channel! I mean, think how dangerous Steve Doocy would be with a power tool in his hands while blathering about irrelevant inanities filling his little pea-brain? -Kevo