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Remember last Tuesday, which was just seven days ago? Nate Silver gave President Obama an 85% chance of winning re-election and Obama was near 80% on Intrade. Mitt Romney's staffers were quietly questioning whether the race was over and Republican candidates were openly speculating on whether Romney was ruining their own chances.
It seems like a long time ago, doesn't it? With five weeks to go in the static-for-months presidential race, Obama looked like a safe bet for a second term. With four weeks to go, Obama looks like an underdog.
What the race will look like with three weeks to go is, at this point, anybody's guess.
But in light of the mania of speculation I've seen in some corners, it seems like a good time to pause, take a deep breath, and take stock.
First up, let's reflect for a moment on the first debate. Dave Weigel, reporting from New Mexico, shared an anecdote that resonated with me.
After spending a weekend talking to voters in a close state that's no longer really "swinging," the first presidential debate has come to remind me of Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace. Democrats walked out of the theater/turned off the TV saying "huh, well, I wanted it to be better." After a few days of talking to friends, it changes from a disappointment into the worst piece of crap in human history.
Let's not forget, focus groups last Wednesday showed Romney winning the debate, but not necessarily wining votes. That changed after the post-debate hysteria/groupthink kicked in.
Indeed, there was a feeding frenzy that (forgive the mixed metaphor) led to a snowball effect -- the conventional wisdom went from "Obama had an off night" to "Obama was awful" to "Obama humiliated himself" to "Obama drooled on himself before stripping naked and singing the Soviet national anthem." This evolution in perceptions, it's worth noting, happened with incredible speed.
Opinions are going to vary, and like art, not everyone will see the same event the same way. But those arguing that Obama's lackluster timidity for 90 minutes matters more than policies, agendas, beliefs, records, worldviews, national priorities, and history are being needlessly immature.
What's more, Kevin Drum had an insightful item overnight, arguing, "Rarely has the hack gap been on such febrile display as it has since last Wednesday's presidential debate. Ask yourself this: can you even imagine Sean Hannity or Rush Limbaugh tearing their hair out over a weak debate performance by Mitt Romney the way that liberals have been over President Obama's? ... You don't normally see the temperamental difference between liberals and conservatives so dramatically on display. Most conservatives simply wouldn't have been willing to slag their guy so badly. Liberals, by contrast, almost seemed to enjoy wallowing in recriminations. It was practically an Olympic tournament to see who could act the most agonized."
What about the polls?
Democrats looking for reasons to panic can certainly find some. A Pew Research Center poll released yesterday showed a dramatic reversal in the presidential race, with Obama going from a 8-point lead over Romney last month (51% to 44%) to a four-point deficit this month (45%-49%) among likely voters. The poll was conducted the three days immediately following last week's debate.
The newly released Public Policy Polling survey for Daily Kos/SEIU also shows a reversal -- Obama's four-point lead has turned into Romney's two-point lead.
But both of those polls were taken immediately after the debate, when the political world, hair on fire, was still screaming at voters that Obama had committed a crime against humanity. This tidbit from a new ABC News polling report seems important:
Night-to-night data indicate a sizable boost for Romney, and drop for Obama, on Thursday night, a day after their first debate, which Romney widely is seen as having won. But both of those trends subsequently subsided in this poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday.
Indeed, poking through the ABC poll's data (pdf), it's clear that while Romney's favorability inched higher after the debate, so did Obama's. As a matter of fact, the president's favorability advantage is greater now than it was in January.
Organized fits over polls four weeks before an election, a time when the results are certain to be "noisy," is pointless. Eight years ago today, CNN released a poll that found Kerry leading Bush. Republicans didn't look for the nearest window to jump out of.
If folks on either side don't like the way the race is going, they should try getting involved, and investing their energies in the campaign itself, rather than wringing their hands or coming up with conspiracy theories.
It's a close race. It's going to remain a close race. It was always expected to be a close race. Those on the verge of falling to pieces really need to get a grip.
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I watched the entire debate - and while I was disappointed that Obama was not more forceful in his approach, I don't think it was the "end of the world as we know it" as some would have us believe. I do think that people overreacted where Obama's presentation was concerned, and somewhat under-reacted where Romney's lies were concerned.
Yes, the polls did change in Mitten's favor immediately after the debate - but as was stated numerous times before the debate ever took place, he was bound to gain in the polls no matter what, just from being on the stage with the president! Even if Obama had been at the top of his game, Romney still would have gained in the polls.
The other thing that people seem to forget is that this was only the first of several debates. Polls are going to go back and forth - up and down - as polls do. Yes, it would have been wonderful to maintain the kind of lead that Obama was showing prior to that first debate, but realistically we knew that was not going to be the case - so why all the panic??
What we need to do is what we have needed to do all along - maintain vigilance. Be diligent about talking to people - friends, family, neighbors, co-workers, strangers on the street - continue to post online - get the word out there in every way that we can!
And - if you live in a state where they are trying to suppress your vote in any way - make sure you have the necessary identification when you go to the polls to vote! When you get to the polls, don't let anyone attempt to stop you from casting your ballot! Don't let any of the dirty tricks work!
If we follow through to the end of this thing, and we get out there and vote like we did in 2008, there is no reason why Obama should not have the second term that we all want for him and for our country...
I think it was the Nixon/Kennedy with the 5 oclock shadow that is a copy of this. If you heard it on the radio, Nixon may have won it but the female vote really swung with the appearances. Nothing has changed in alll these years.
The polls swung quite a bit and it looks like it is all from the 18 point swing from female voters, simply based on appearance.
Brianna you are so right-the Rev was the only one to stay loyal to our president-he will win in the end!
Loyalty is not determined by refusing to criticize appropriately.
I would like to see the ads go back to Massachusetts. Show the people who voted for Romney, but later were disappointed. Hear their stories again.
We can't really criticize Romney/Ryan on Social Security anymore, because Obama said, in the debate, that he and Romney have no differences on Social Security. We can, however, hit harder on Medicare.
The ad I would like to see:
A senior citizen saying, "I don't have a fortune to leave my children and grandchildren. There is no family trust fund for them. By voting for Obama, I can leave them Medicare."
Also, the Romney debates Romney video is great. I would like to see it played over and over.
Now, If we could only have the professional fact checkers present, and weighing in, immediately after the debate.
How about a moderator that , if not senile , might be able to tell what the candidates have been saying for eighteen months .
The big liar in the whole campaign has been Obama, of course. The debate just exposed those lies.
Up until this debate, the majority of information that the undecided's had on Romney came from a multitude of smear ads claiming Romney is greedy, heartless, a murder, felon, etc. Now in this debate, the American public, evidently, have seen that Mitt Romney is a decent guy with good, concrete ideas to get this country back on course.
In addition, Obama's inability to defend his abject failure of the last 3 1/2 yrs, or articulate anything intelligent regarding his plans for the future was not surprising. His record speaks for itself, and all he offers is more of the same. A 3rd string debater from my local highschool would have easily won that debate because of the facts.
So let the name calling continue, because that's all you've got left- Romney's a liar!, and the undecided voters who are swinging to him are stupid idiot! Good luck with that strategy!
Many of the Undecideds are low information voters. Is it possible that you fall into this category? Romney won on lies. Obama lost for failure to counter adequately, not because of lies.
Correct, many undecideds are low information voters. In the debate, Romney gave accurate info on the failures of the Obama presidency, and the now, informed, decided accordingly.
All the fact checks I have seen show that Obama gave the most inacurrate info. He lied about Romney's tax plan adding $5 trillion to debt. Obama also lied about his "plan" to lower debt by $4trillion. C'mon, really!? He raised debt by $6 trillion in 4 yrs. Are we really supposed to believe he will now lower debt?
Undecided: sounds like you've decided! Do you really want Mitt in the White House? Do you want a Republican to win?
Maybe your mind was made up all along because you have to know it would be a huge mistake.
You're correct, Obama shouldn't have rounded up 4.9 trillion to 5 trillion.
The biggest deliberate lie of the debate was Romney saying that his health plan covers those with pre existing illnesses.
Obama still hasn't raised the debt, percentage wise as much as Reagan.
Romney hasn't proposed a smaller budget, as has Obama. Romney is only promising to take money from social programs and feed it into the military. Typical republican approach.
You were decided a long time ago.
The Republican Brain...a fascinating read. Available on Amazon.
Yeah, Romney's health care plan is for the uninsured to go to the emergency room. We all know what a great idea that is.
What failures of Obama and what accurate information did Romney give? What concrete ideas does Romney have for our country?
Actually the fact checkers agreed with Obama that Romney's plan will add 5 trillion in debt unless you're referring to them saying it's 4.8trillion in which case I suppose you could sparse over that. Obama's plan will reduce the debt by 4$trillion into the future, however this depends on whether or not the websites you're referring to understand what it means to reduce debt. Even the most right leaning blogs agree he'll cut the debt and deficit- they just sparse over how much. The lowest number I've seen is 2.2 trillion will be reduced and the highest is 6 trillion.
Additionally you do realize that Obama has only increased spending by a little under 3 trillion and that was under temporary spending measures. The remainder of debt added wasn't by Obama it was by the wars, the tax cuts, and the recession itself. No matter who had been president that debt would have still been incurred.
Remember things like wars don't magically stop adding to the debt even after the war is over. You still have to pay for the veterans, pay for their families, and pay for the country you just broke. It amazes me how people operate under this belief that the debt clock starts over at zero with each new president. You do realize that even if Mitt Romney privatized all of government and eliminated the United States as we know it we would STILL be 16 trillion in debt, yes?
The truth, Cartoon, is not a movable object. Feel free to research these stats:
DEBT CHECK
BUSH
2002-2009
Two wars=$1469Billion
Tax Cuts=$1812 Billion
None Defense Discretionary=$608 Billion
Tarp-other Bailouts=$224 Billion
2008 Stimulus=$773 Billion
TOTAL=$5700 BILLION
OBAMA
Stimulus=$711 Billion
Non-defense discretionary spending=$278 Billion
Stimulus Tax Cuts=$425 Billion
Health Care Reform=$152 Billion
TOTAL=$1440 Billion
Debt Increases
Reagan 189%
Bush -55%
Clinton-37%
Bush II-86%
Obama-- 35%
VOTE DEMOCRAT
Obama/Biden 2012
I think you meant to address undecided in NC
Romney: better on TV.
Obama: better in the White House.
I feel spanked by Steve Benen for critizising Obama's debate performance.
Listen, I don't believe Democrats are jumping ship due to a bad performance by Obama. He doesn't have to convince me. He HAS to convince those undecided voters. And if it is such a close race, is there time to waste? NO!!
If Obama wins, last weeks debate will be a pebble on the road. If he loses the election, that debate will be talked about for years to come.
Moving forward to the next debate, President Obama needs to OWN the stage, hammering out his record for the last few years and his platform for the next four.
Indeed, and I believe he will give a better performance on Oct 16th. He's well aware of his shortcomings and that needs to perform better if he's going to start turning Romney's momentum around.
That being said, there's nothing like a good amount of pressure to sere as motivation.
Absolutely, RyanAshlight.
Many say "weak". I saw "circumspect" (as in are-you-seriously-expecting-us-to-elect-a-congenital-liar-for-president-? circumspect).
All this cliff-hanging, nail-biting, agonizing, chair-perching, horse-racing, hand-wringing, hair-splitting and pulling inside and outside margins of error, when everything hangs in the balance and every vote counts and may or may not be counted in a razor-thin hysteria of unpredictability may conceivably stimulate voter turnout.
At least one can ... always look on the braiight saiide of life ... trala, trala ...
"Congenial liar?" Right thought, wrong term. Romney is a sociopathic liar. There's nothing in his DNA that's causing him to lie. His lying is goal directed. That's one of the characteristics that identifies a sociopathic liar.
mpguy: good point noted.
Big Bird won't get voters to the polls. I'm embarrassed that we are using this tactic. Big Bird? Really?
You honestly think this is about Big Bird? Seriously?
It's about exposing Romney as having no serious plans by which to reduce our national deficit, which is why he's reduced to saying he'll cut funding for PBS; which is like the equivalent of trying to clean up an oil spill with a single cup of water.
"It's a close race. It's going to remain a close race. It was always expected to be a close race. Those on the verge of falling to pieces really need to get a grip."
Seriously. Take a lesson from conservatives and keep calm and carry on. Acting like the whole damned world's on fire is not helping to rectify this situation.
Andrew Sullivan in particular, much as I like the man, was officially freaking out from debate night to posting an article with the initial title "Obama is Doomed".
...-Sigh-
Romney acted like he was on meth during that debate: hyper, talking really loud, interrupting. Really rude, boorish behavior. And then, the first thing out of his mouth is a lie. If I had been an undecided voter, I would have decided right then that this jacka$$ wasn't for me.
With one major distinction, Karensc...you're not a "low information voter"!
those arguing that Obama's lackluster timidity for 90 minutes matters more than policies, agendas, beliefs, records, worldviews, national priorities, and history are being needlessly immature.
With respect to Steve, no progressive believes that performance should matter more than substance. However, the fear is that for swing voters--those whose votes are based on who wears a flag pin or who is the better bowler or whatever the hell influences their votes--performance does matter more than substance. The polls from the night after the debate seem to bear that out.
There's no way around it. President Obama's lack of preparation for that debate and the resulting performance was political malpractice. He made it clear that he knows that now, and they have done everything reasonably possible to overcome it. Lesson learned.
That said, as Steve indicated, the correct reaction is not to crawl under the sheets and roll up into a fetal position. The correct reaction is to give more and work harder. The thing to do now is to put our foot on the gas: http://www.barackobama.com
I say to
all the stupid people, go ahead and vote for a republican president! Because
there is NO fixing this nation after that happens. Maybe we deserve the hell so
we can finally learn a lesson? Go and care only care about yourself and make
your children suffer and throw your grandchildren to a mean future. Only care
for yourself and damn everything else. The only thing that counts is YOU and your hate for a black man who brought us back from hell.
Honestly -- I think that the focus needs to shift from the debates, back to the band-wagon our guy is the right choice mantra we saw so evident at the DNC, and it's subsequent coverage. Liberals don't like Romney, we know what he represents to us, and all that he stands for wont represent a good president in our eyes -- that being said, undecided voters whom are just now turning in, are hearing only negative messages, of "Romney lies, Romney is bad" instead of POSITIVE Obama messages. People respond to positivity, not pouting, or throwing a tantrum because the debate didn't go our way the other night. Obama is the people's president -- he made it possible for 40 million people to get access to health insurance, he is going to see the medicare plan extended by at least another 10 years, he's going to continue to support larger grants for college students looking to improve their education, or adults returning to school looking to pick up new skills to get hired with. He supports a women's right to have access to birth control, and important prevention care. He supports a diplomatic approach to ending the war in Afghanistan. We need to be singing our guy's praises, instead of insulting Romney -- we're falling into the trap the republicans were early in THEIR campaign, we're letting the other side dictate our message for us -- and news flash, they don't like us very much. We need to be telling people why they need to be voting for Obama and the reason IS better than "that other guy is a jerk". Spread the GOOD word.
Romney scares the stuffing out of me. If he's elected, within a year we'll be at war with Iraq. And, I CAN see him dropping a nuke. God help us all!
I watched the debate and I still don't get how this was a disaster for Obama. It obviously was but I think more because of the post debate media spin rather than Obama's performance. I mean the issues are the issues . Do we want a country that continues to concentrate wealth and power at the top only?
VERY strange set of values, when lying through your teeth with a smirk is considered "winning", imo. I personally think Obama was having a " WTF ?! " moment w/ this yet another reinvented Mitt .
Here's the deal kids- http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html#battlegrounds
Pennsylvania Obama +7.5, Ohio + 3.5, Obama still leads where it matters most.
The Columbus (Ohio) Dispatch has Obama up double digits. I might add, CD is owned by the Wolfe family, Ohio's answer to the Kochs, so absolutely no Left skew. HuffPo (leaning further R by the day since AOL bought it) is now citing several obscure pollsters , and sites like " We Ask America ", fyi- a branch of the traditionally anti-union/workers rights the Illinois Maufacturers Association. These people skew further R than Rasmussen, add to the curve.
Today's gallup poll: Obama- 50 ; Romney - 45 I think he is landing from the bounce
I have to say, Steve normally gets it right. I really want to believe the Left's overreaction was unjustified. But here's the rub. You cannot underestimate the stupidity of low information voters. In my opinion, there's a couple things on display. The first is expectations. Most people - right, left and center - expected Obama to do much better. I think this is a hat tip to him because he's such an effective speaker in many ways. That he fell short on a national stage during a critical moment in the nations history, is, well, worthy of serious concern. I think most people knew the answers and rebuttals. I'd bet most people who read Steve on a daily basis were yelling and screaming at the TV with the snappy response to Mitt's Mendacity. When that didn't happen, folks were left wondering, "WTF Barack??" Second, the Left understands this: If you're afraid of snakes, don't leave your doors open. In otherwords, it appeared Barack left open the back door and didn't slam it shut. For low information voters or folks in the middle, this may have been their one and only opportunity to make up their minds. Having seen one election in our lifetime decided by less than 600 votes, the Left understands that every vote counts. Third, tying together the CLEAR voter suppression efforts that absolutely will close what should be wide gaps in swing states, immature nonsensical polling responses in Romney's favor (which clearly underscores America's stupidity or lack of understanding of fact over fiction or refusal to think critically) and a bad performance where only the best performance is warranted, and you have the type of "sky is falling" reaction from folks who only want the best for Obama. My God, if this isn't a wake up call to stop pussyfooting around with the GOP and beat them at their own game by knuckling up and striking first, and often, then the race will in fact be unnecessarily close. And that will be a shame.
Polls do not vote. Free people living in a Democracy will always have the GOD given right to vote. Get out to vote America, and register others to vote as well.
The forum was a contributing problem. Put Mitt in a town hall environment and he will fall, where Obama does his best in a town hall format. I thought Romney was an obnoxious bully. It was like watching any Republican being interviewed on NBC, CBS. They just talk over you, and over you and over you. I liked Saturday Night Live's take on the debate.
I have to admit I was one of the "hand wringers" not quite at the "jumping out the nearest window" but definitely need to get a grip! Jeez!
Predictions:
Given the public's short attention span, by the time the third debate takes place. the first one will become a figment of our imagination. And the President will deliver.
Thursday night's V.P. debate will not be so much between Biden and Ryan but Biden and Romney.
Vice President Biden will figuratively elbow Mr. Ryan off the stage and go straight for Romney's jugular and take liberties with dressing down Romney. and his mendacity.
Mr. Biden's charm in the public arena is not so much his gaffes but the fact that he doesn't give a hoot whether he's political correct or not.
It's way too early for Democrats to pack it in. As Maddow suggests, get involved...I have the next four weekends booked with phone canvassing here in N.H. IF....if we lose, at least it won't be for lack of trying.
I can't understand it at all...how people are going to re-elect Obama... I just don't!
If this were anyone else he would not be re-elected and probably impeached by now.
The media and the left have done a bang up job on the fabrications to re-elect Obama.
I can not wait until this election is over either way because all this bull is making me really sick... not only of the politics but of hearing the whining of the left and their politically correct stupidity.
Everything is not always fine, we really do need to have consequences for our actions, being able to say what you mean and do what you say does still matter in this world.
If Obama does win (I pray that he not) in two years you will be wondering what happened and where did it all go wrong... but too little and too late.
SFlaMom, maybe these numbers will shed some light on your dilemma!
DEBT CHECK
BUSH
2002-2009
Two wars=$1469Billion
Tax Cuts=$1812 Billion
None Defense Discretionary=$608 Billion
Tarp-other Bailouts=$224 Billion
2008 Stimulus=$773 Billion
TOTAL=$5700 BILLION
OBAMA
Stimulus=$711 Billion
Non-defense discretionary spending=$278 Billion
Stimulus Tax Cuts=$425 Billion
Health Care Reform=$152 Billion
TOTAL=$1440 Billion
Debt Increases
Reagan 189%
Bush -55%
Clinton-37%
Bush II-86%
Obama-- 35%
VOTE DEMOCRAT
Obama/Biden 2012
What about Obama has made him un-electable? Has it ever occurred to you that the "left" actually know why it is they are voting for Obama and it isn't due to spin and lies?
I love the arrogance here though: they aren't voting for my guy, so it must be because they're stupid!
I also love how you don't assert anything specific, yet still unabashedly conclude that Obama is bad. If you don't want to vote for him OK- but a. don't mock those that do want to vote for him and b. don't assume that just saying "Obama bad, Romney good" is going to be a sufficient answer.
Just curious, why do you think Mr Obama is worthy of impeachment?
those arguing that Obama's lackluster timidity for 90 minutes matters more than policies, agendas, beliefs, records, worldviews, national priorities, and history are being needlessly immature.
Riiiiighttt.... Whistle past the graveyard all you want, Steve, but there are no excuses allowed in politics. Especially when one considers the intelligence level of the Average Swing Voter.
That's why the polls turned around so fast. Why was it Obama couldn't bring to the game that MATTERED on Wednesday, in front of 60 million people, what he brought to the game that didn't matter on Thursday?????
You know how for the first leg of this campaign we kept hearing how Republicans will vote for Romney because they despise Obama?
Well, I relate:
I will vote for President Obama because Romney is toxic for our country.
VOTE DEMOCRAT
Obama/Biden 2012
This is a good read on the hack gap.
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/10/hack-gap-rears-its-ugly-head-yet-again