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Remember last Tuesday, which was just seven days ago? Nate Silver gave President Obama an 85% chance of winning re-election and Obama was near 80% on Intrade. Mitt Romney's staffers were quietly questioning whether the race was over and Republican candidates were openly speculating on whether Romney was ruining their own chances.
It seems like a long time ago, doesn't it? With five weeks to go in the static-for-months presidential race, Obama looked like a safe bet for a second term. With four weeks to go, Obama looks like an underdog.
What the race will look like with three weeks to go is, at this point, anybody's guess.
But in light of the mania of speculation I've seen in some corners, it seems like a good time to pause, take a deep breath, and take stock.
First up, let's reflect for a moment on the first debate. Dave Weigel, reporting from New Mexico, shared an anecdote that resonated with me.
After spending a weekend talking to voters in a close state that's no longer really "swinging," the first presidential debate has come to remind me of Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace. Democrats walked out of the theater/turned off the TV saying "huh, well, I wanted it to be better." After a few days of talking to friends, it changes from a disappointment into the worst piece of crap in human history.
Let's not forget, focus groups last Wednesday showed Romney winning the debate, but not necessarily wining votes. That changed after the post-debate hysteria/groupthink kicked in.
Indeed, there was a feeding frenzy that (forgive the mixed metaphor) led to a snowball effect -- the conventional wisdom went from "Obama had an off night" to "Obama was awful" to "Obama humiliated himself" to "Obama drooled on himself before stripping naked and singing the Soviet national anthem." This evolution in perceptions, it's worth noting, happened with incredible speed.
Opinions are going to vary, and like art, not everyone will see the same event the same way. But those arguing that Obama's lackluster timidity for 90 minutes matters more than policies, agendas, beliefs, records, worldviews, national priorities, and history are being needlessly immature.
What's more, Kevin Drum had an insightful item overnight, arguing, "Rarely has the hack gap been on such febrile display as it has since last Wednesday's presidential debate. Ask yourself this: can you even imagine Sean Hannity or Rush Limbaugh tearing their hair out over a weak debate performance by Mitt Romney the way that liberals have been over President Obama's? ... You don't normally see the temperamental difference between liberals and conservatives so dramatically on display. Most conservatives simply wouldn't have been willing to slag their guy so badly. Liberals, by contrast, almost seemed to enjoy wallowing in recriminations. It was practically an Olympic tournament to see who could act the most agonized."
What about the polls?
Democrats looking for reasons to panic can certainly find some. A Pew Research Center poll released yesterday showed a dramatic reversal in the presidential race, with Obama going from a 8-point lead over Romney last month (51% to 44%) to a four-point deficit this month (45%-49%) among likely voters. The poll was conducted the three days immediately following last week's debate.
The newly released Public Policy Polling survey for Daily Kos/SEIU also shows a reversal -- Obama's four-point lead has turned into Romney's two-point lead.
But both of those polls were taken immediately after the debate, when the political world, hair on fire, was still screaming at voters that Obama had committed a crime against humanity. This tidbit from a new ABC News polling report seems important:
Night-to-night data indicate a sizable boost for Romney, and drop for Obama, on Thursday night, a day after their first debate, which Romney widely is seen as having won. But both of those trends subsequently subsided in this poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday.
Indeed, poking through the ABC poll's data (pdf), it's clear that while Romney's favorability inched higher after the debate, so did Obama's. As a matter of fact, the president's favorability advantage is greater now than it was in January.
Organized fits over polls four weeks before an election, a time when the results are certain to be "noisy," is pointless. Eight years ago today, CNN released a poll that found Kerry leading Bush. Republicans didn't look for the nearest window to jump out of.
If folks on either side don't like the way the race is going, they should try getting involved, and investing their energies in the campaign itself, rather than wringing their hands or coming up with conspiracy theories.
It's a close race. It's going to remain a close race. It was always expected to be a close race. Those on the verge of falling to pieces really need to get a grip.
Leave a Comment:
Is the shift in polls due to the debate, or due to these ridiculous Big Bird Ads. The Big Bird thing was good for the day after the debate; now it looks like the only thing we have going, and is hurting more than helping, in my opinion.
Is it too late for a reversal? Can we still win?
Obama could have saved the evening by saying...'I know Mitt Romney and what Mitt Romney believes in and all the things Mitt Romney has said for the last year and the person across from me, 'you sir', are not Mitt Romney."
I Love that! Maybe Obama will use it in the next debate!
For the Biden / Ryan debate, I want Biden to begin every sentence with "son". For example; "Son, that's a dangerous plan you're proposing."
Maybe it's me, but I find very difficult to believe all those "low information voters" who will be so turned off by the President's performance in the first debate were, you know, sitting breathlessly around their televisions watching.
What with their being "low information voters" and all...
I don't believe in polls, polls are not all entirely proactive considering what affiliated party for which those in the interviews are given, therefore its not totally accurate in my opinion. The Media loves the idea of those polls because it keeps the conversations going and it gives them work, something to talk about the next day. Simply meaning, we could be talking about Romney wining the debate last week and this week but next week the out-coming of those conversations will be totally different. Polls breathes more fumes in the political arena for which we all go back forth arguing what is right, what is coherent, and what is accurate meaning there is no consisted prove of truthfulness in the polls. We rely on guessing to form our logical interpretations of such predictions from the polls.
For instance, like you said it yourself, two of those polls showed Romney in a tight spot with the President by a draw. We are 3 weeks away from that debate and the whole conversations are swifting in President Obama's favor again. Basically, because those two polls are 3 weeks old.
Back in 2008, McCaan was showed to be in a dead heat with the then President Obama and he didn't win, or even came close to as predicted by the pollsters.
I think what is important right now is, make sure you cast your vote this election, go early if you must. Call your friends and if they did or haven't, get involved go out there and talk to people. Have you vote yet, can you vote have you registered yet? This election depends on you, and what you did or didn't do will effect how your country turns out to be in the next 4 years.
What I think right now is simply this, we all should be Moving Forward not Backward.
A lot of these comments are good- yes, Obama screwed up. Yes, Romney lied his behind off. I think what is missing in all this is perspective- Obama did not do great in the debates against McCain, McCain just did worse. Watch the debates Obama did with Hilary and McCain and see how many times he looks down- that is what he does in debates, generally speaking. What made it stand out this time was the obvious lack of response to the lies. But not a lack of response to all the lies- he did try to get Romney on changing his budget plan, he tried to get Romney on ObamaCare he tried to get Romney on Medicare. In none of those exchanges did I get the feeling that Obama lost as much as Romney denied reality. I totally thought it was a draw, and refused to watch the commentary afterward after about ten minutes because MSNBC lost it completely. I should amend that- Chris Matthews and Ed Scholtz lost it completely. I think Rachel was a little surprised Romney came out as well as he did, but she didn't freak out at least, Lawrence O Donnell didn't freak out at all to his great credit. Al Sharpton didn't make as much sense to me, but whatever. My point is this, one debate is not a life changing event. The narrative being talked about right now should be: Romney is no longer in a death spiral and Obama is still more likely to take more electoral votes. That is Romney's victory- he shored up his base (again). None of the polls suggest that Independents have flocked to either candidates, and that is who we need to pay attention to. Just saying.
Romney’s strategy
at the first Presidential debate was frankly, unfortunately, brilliant. I don’t
believe President Obama could have handled the debate any less damaging than he
did. Had Obama called Romney out on his blatant lies and flip-flops they would
have spent the entire debate, debating Romney’s “new policies” and the President
would have come off as either supporting the new and improved Romney, or an
uninformed prosecutor, or both. I believe President Obama handled the situation
as best as it could have been handled by addressing to his own policies and
outlook for the future, allowing the rest of us fact-check Romney. We can only
hope the Obama team can formulate a strategy capable of undermining this BS,
but brilliant tactic.