We've seen a general swing in the right direction on initial unemployment claims over the last several weeks, but I don't think anyone expected the new report from the Department of Labor to be this good.
First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell sharply in the latest week to their lowest level since February 2008, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number of initial claims in the week ending Oct. 6 fell 30,000 to 339,000. The decline was unexpected. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for claims to rise 1,000 to 368,000
To put this in perspective, today's report is so good, jobless claims have now reached their best point of the Obama presidency, and haven't been this good since February 2008 -- nearly five years ago.
That said, to reiterate the point I make every Thursday morning, it's worth remembering that week-to-week results can vary widely, and it's best not to read too much significance into any one report. (This is especially true this week, since the number will need to be revised next week.)
In terms of metrics, when jobless claims fall below the 400,000 threshold, it's considered evidence of an improving jobs landscape, and when the number drops below 370,000, it suggests jobs are being created rather quickly. We've now been below the 370,000 threshold nine of the last 14 weeks.
And with that, here's the chart showing weekly, initial unemployment claims going back to the beginning of 2007. (Remember, unlike the monthly jobs chart, a lower number is good news.) For context, I've added an arrow to show the point at which President Obama's Recovery Act began spending money. (Note: the new monthly jobs report will be released tomorrow morning.)
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Just another story that will be reported as "Republican outrage energizes base."
The scary thing that a lot of people don't take into account today is drug screening and background checks failing. I recently took my wife's car into a local national auto chain store, they had a Help wanted sign on the door to the garage area. I mentioned to the mechanic about the sign, and asked him if they short on help. He replied that since January of this year they had interviewed 35 people for the positions they had opened, and only hired 2. I then asked him why they had only hired 2 out of 35, and he replied that those were the only 2 that had passed the drug and background screenings. That means the 82.5% of the applicants failed. I wonder if anyone has even bothered to collect this type of data, and it's impact on the unemployment rate?
It took a long time to get sick, and it will take a long time to get well.
Especially when some of us continue to eat and drink to excess, and refuse to take our medications. (Looking at YOU, Congress!)
My favorite analogy is weight loss. The deficit ballooned during the Bush administration, much like a person gorging and fattening up. He left the country as a bloated, sluggish and relatively ill person (the economy). Experts (economists) advise to cut back slowly and gradually introduce life-style changes to alter those eating (spending) habits so that the changes can be life-long. Anyone who has gone through this process knows you can drastically reduce weight by near-starving and you get quick, but unsustainable results. You have to modify behavior, cut back or eliminate junk food (wasteful spending) and increase activity (job growth) to get to your goal. The country, after Bush left, was a morbidly obese person with no direction and the Repulicans cried out when they didn't get a slim, Super Model who can run a marathon in under 3 hours and then claimed Obama failed. It took 8 years to get into this mess (not to mention we continued to finance the Iraqi war and still financing the Afghan war and Medicare Advantage) and it will take longer than that to successfully bring the deficit under control. With the Republicans obstructing every jobs bill presented to them (kind of like that snarky relative who tells the fat person trying to lose weight that they are too fat and will never make it but then criticizes them for not losing weight faster), they further slowed progress.
How about factoring in a Democratic controlled HOUSE & SENATE
Democrats controlled enough to stop the wingNut filibusters???
Should we factor in all the wingNut malarkey?
Let's see how fast Republicans claim Obama is cooking the books.
This report seems to feel right in our local economy. People are holding on to their jobs as demand strengthens.
Without the Republican hostage taking in 2011 (otherwise known as threatening to default on debt if they didn't get their way), Obama would have had the election in the bag 3 months ago.
Cue conspiracy theorists in 3...2...1...
What is especially galling is that if the Republicans in Congress really, genuinely cared about the American people, they would have pushed forward bills on jobs and to get the economy on track. Instead, there was no fewer on 33 votes on trying to get rid of 'Obamacare', while jobs bills languished and died.
The unemployment rate would have been well under 7% and the economy would have been growing even faster.
But they just couldn't let the 'scary black man' have that sort of win.
Shameful. Totally shameful- and indefensible as well.
You are so correct. I do not understand how Republicans can look at this and say Obama is not doing anything.
Facts don't lie, but Republicans do! They make up their own facts, to justify not liking Obama.
When Obama took office the stock market was crashing. Every Republican who has money in a 401K should donate all the profit they have made since Obama has taken office to the government to pay off the deficit. After all he has done nothing for anyone and is not good. So it should not be that much. Wrong! Your 401K has doubled under him. Do we really want to go back! Back to what?
Yes! the rest of the time they worked on anti-abortion bills and took vacation! Despicable.
Is the American collective memory so short as to not remember how things have been the past 6 years? Recession was called too late, it started much earlier than reported and corrections should have been made before the free fall. I hope that statistics are brought forth from the Democratic Campaign in a positive ad, that is instructional but not boring, reflecting specific improvements and the need for regulation to safeguard our economy and thereby our social programs (the safety net). Think back people, it was awful and in less than 4 short years, we've come a long way baby!
The problem for Republicans in general and the Romney campaign in specific isn't the week to week numbers its the over all trend over the last four years. When you look at all the metrics and overlay them it becomes very apparent that things are improving, perhaps not quickly but steadily. For Romney to say that he is going to change things radically overnight is just peddling patent medicine and snake oil.
"Welcome to Dr. Mitt's traveling Medicine Show where Supply side economics guaranteed to cure warts, cramps, fiscal insolvency, defence related erectile dysfunction and Congressional constipation (Side effects may include but are not limited to poverty and loss of rights, not to be taken internally keep away from open flame and living tissue)
We have been told for three and a half years on a daily basis that the primary issue of 2012 campaign would be the economy. This was the narrative, this was the meme. Nothing else mattered.
But the economy has slowly turned around. There has been 31 consecutive months of job growth and 5.2 million new private sector jobs added. Unemployment recently fell to 7.8%, a 4-year low. One would think that this would be BIG freaking news, especially when the president’s opponent and Republicans in Congress opposed every measure that has helped drive the economy out of the ditch.
But apparently none of that matters now.
Won't it be fun to watch Biden beat Ryan over the head tonight (with this report, of course)?
VP pillow fight. That would bring in the viewers.
Biden would still kick Ryan's ass though. ;)
Like.
At the end you note the Monthly jobs report will be released tomorrow. Weren't they just released last week?
Also, check out the Gallup number on unemployment...big drop there as well...which I am sure is pissing off Jack Welch and Mitt Romney
How's that working for you Romney??? the new jobs numbers you can not talk about the economey now it will be aboration, KEEP YOUR HANDS OFF MY RIGHTS. AND LIBYA, OF COURSE YOU COULD DO BETTER IF YOU WERE PRESIDENT, SURE U WILL OUTSOURSE THE PROBLEM TO CHINA, AND I WILL CALL YA BACK, ON YOU ANSWER MACHINE.
sorry about my spelling in my post, I hit post before I spell checked.... a senior monment!!!
no prob, i speak fluent typonese
The stimulus has worked and is still working.The economy is improving without any help from congress.This is a testament that President Obama's policie's are working without giving trillion's more in tax break's to the wealthy like Romney and himself.
Thank you!! You are correct and it is so important to recognize that the Obama Stimulus, unlike the quick fix W Stimulus of 2002, was structured to have long lasting impact over time. One example was the relatively modest amount spent on subsidizing Energy Efficiency upgrades and improvements for buildings and homes. They will have a return on investment over the life of the improvements of 40 to 1.
I look around my part of Florida and I do see construction beginning to rev up. Construction of business (store) sites, which will also means new jobs. I go to the mall and I see lots of folks shopping and yes they are carrying bags, not just browsing. I do think that there is a feeling that things are improving.
The house can claim zero help in this latest improvement again. Please get out the vote...If Lyin' Ryan and Reduct Romney win I am moving off shore!
Not to be a wet blanket but are these jobs paying a living wage?
I have heard that many businesses are readjusting their business to incorporate more part timers and more work for tips type pay. They claim they are doing this to avoid paying for employee health care.
Personally I do not eat out much anymore anyway. My area has taxes on taxes on taxes added to the bill at restuarants and when you see how the wait staff are paid less than half the minimum wage because they sometimes get tips you feel obliged to tip good. Even a republican can learn to boil a hot dog.
A service based economy can not last. We were doomed when they first started yapping about us becoming just such an economy.
You're probably more of a 'realist' than you would believe.
While the report numbers ARE getting better, things are still far from good. We live in a rural/resort area and not only are tourism dollars way down, most of the jobs are seasonal, part-time and just at minimum wage with NO benefits. Most young people have left the area for better job opportunities (my own college educated daughter had to move to another state to make a living wage) and the number of foreclosures on properties in our county is way up. The unfortunate part of that scenario is that everyone else must pick up the slack, and for us, that means our property taxes have gone up to compensate for reduced incoming tax revenue. It's easier to understand like this:
Less tourism dollars = less business. Less business = less need for employees. Less employment = less take home wages. Less take home wages = less spending. Less spending = closed business. Closed business = no wages. No wages = inability to pay mortgage. Inability to pay mortgage = foreclosure...etc., etc., etc.
I agree that a service based economy can not last...
These figures appear correct. Construction is up in our area, with new homes starts. Businesses are also expanding. The economy is in recovery and getting better.
When President Obama took office, he never promised miracles just that he would work hard to fix our country's problem. Imagine what would have been possible IF Congress would have got out the A** and helped.
We took advantage of early voting yesterday. Go vote it is your right.
Where is your God now, Jack Welch??
and will Fox News be able to publish these stats i wonder.
So, strong foreign policy, expanded gun rights, expanded oil drilling, an economy showing progress, and a whiny opposition: Democratic landslide that pulls in independents and Republicans, too. Black Pres, Voter suppression: Republican win.
It's a good number, but it's important not to crow too much about this one number. First, the statistic is notoriously volatile - the moving average is more reliable. Second, reports are that this drop is due almost entirely to a drop in one state (they aren't saying which one, but it's a large state so California is the guess) and the raw numbers almost always rise across all states at the start of a quarter (i.e. now) - that's one of the seasonal adjustments they make to the actual reported number quoted here. So, the expectation is that one state failed to report everything (it happens) and that the corrected number next week will get this week's number back to the expected number - which isn't horrible, but not worth crowing about.
Rachel,
Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but this jobless claims number apparently is missing one large state!!
http://247wallst.com/2012/10/11/why-the-drop-in-weekly-jobless-claims-is-flawed/
I still think we unquestionably are moving in the right direction...but this jobless claims number isn't accurate.
-Stu
Kelly Evens (CNBC) is reporting that one large state did not report quarterly numbers. So those numbers are not in this week's jobless claims.
I find it side splitting hilarious that people assign so much credit or blame to elected politicians for the economy. Sure, they can' have some effect on it. Obama's stimulus package kept the unemployment rate below 9%. However, it's demand for goods and services that truly drives an economy. The reality here is that employment' never fell below 91%. And as Bill Maher pointed out, if you're convinced the US economy is in the dumps, go to any mall or stand outside any electronics store with people camping out to buy an Ipad just like the one they already have.
Things are not nearly as bad as we're being told.
It matters how we get there.
A balanced budget is generally accepted by all as required for a strong America going forward. But, it does matter the manner in which we balance the budget. It matters the manner in which Romney- bottom line driven, balance sheet is everything - it only matters that it's balanced - regardless the human and societal costs - regardless the loss of America itself - would balance it. The key is in Romneys past, how he's managed companies and managed to get profit from those same companies (q.v., Bain Capital/Venture Capital). It is completely incompatible with a sustainable democracy where all citizens partake. Romneys path is the easy path to a balanced budget. Perhaps this is why it's so popular with the GOP base - it's an easy to understand 'solution'. They have managed to shoehorned it into the story line of tax breaks to the job creators, more to the point, tax breaks to the creators of the Romney campaign.
Look at Bain: under a Bain/Romney presidency, layoff thousands just to generate profit (balance the budget), sell off retirement accounts (Social Security), cut their health care plans (Medicaid/Medicare), millions would be on the street (HUD), millions would die (food stamps) and... no big bird! The budget would maybe balance, but at what cost. We're better than that.
It does matters how we get there.
HA accidently landed on fox news for like 10 seconds this morning. They were saying one state didn't report, but they would not state what LARGE state that was.