Last week's initial unemployment claims were so extraordinarily good, it was widely assumed we'd see the new figures from the Department of Labor start to bounce back in the other direction. This morning, that's exactly what happened.
Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits jumped 46,000 to a seasonally adjusted 388,000 in the week of Oct. 7-13, the Labor Department said Thursday, erasing the sharp drop from the prior week. Claims had fallen two weeks ago to a four-year low, but the decline mainly stemmed from a statistical quirk in the data that often happens at the end of a quarter and it was not reflective of a rapidly improving labor market. Initial claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 342,000 from an original reading of 339,000, based on more complete data collected at the state level. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected claims to rise to 365,000 in the most recent week. The average of new claims over the past month, meanwhile, edged up by 750 to 365,500.
To reiterate the point I make every Thursday morning, it's worth remembering that week-to-week results can vary widely, and it's best not to read too much significance into any one report.
In terms of metrics, when jobless claims fall below the 400,000 threshold, it's considered evidence of an improving jobs landscape, and when the number drops below 370,000, it suggests jobs are being created rather quickly. We've now been below the 370,000 threshold 10 of the last 15 weeks.
And with that, here's the chart showing weekly, initial unemployment claims going back to the beginning of 2007. (Remember, unlike the monthly jobs chart, a lower number is good news.) For context, I've added an arrow to show the point at which President Obama's Recovery Act began spending money.
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A lot of places hire for the upcoming Holiday. So, that will help people too, sometimes if you show the employer how well a worker you are, they will keep you as an employee after the Holiday.
Amazon, for one, plans to hire 50,000 for the holidays, and will keep some of them, full time.
Anybody who pays close attention to the week to week fluctuations has too much time on his hands.
And this week, Jack Welch will likely not be heard from as he has prior engagements like redoing his sock drawer.
If Jack Welch is heard from, it will be to claim that the "new, accurate" numbers actually prove that last week's books were cooked. That Obama got caught and had to let up on the BLS.
STEVE: If you don't put much stock in the weekly variation, please stop reporting it. Do a 4-week trailing average of the corrected numbers, or something like that. It is clear that we have been in the 375K range for most of the year--the story is, there's no movement.
jack Welch really ought to retire from the public - his alzhiemers is really showing these days!!
Well, thank you, Jesus. We wouldn't want to cause the Republicans any more distress over the fact our economy might be improving...
If BO wins, this is the new normal, 8%-ish unemployment.....yippee.
As if it would be any better under Romney! That's right, more tax cuts for "job providers". We all saw how well that worked out under the Bush administration. Romney...Bush redux.
You mean if the GOP congress gets re-elected to block the Jobs Bill that Obama proposed, while not producing any jobs bills of their own.
Despite claiming to be "laser-focused on jobs, jobs, jobs. By which they mean abortion" as Rachel likes to point out.
How many Dems voted for Obama's budget? Either one?
The left keeps bringing up abortion hoping it's the shiny object to distract the voters from the economy, it won't work.
The LEFT keeps bringing up abortion, Eric? [rolls eyes]
It's been brought up to you, time and again, what that budget vote was about, and yet here you are AGAIN, spouting the same points as if their meaning has changed since the last time you spouted them.
Could we at least get trolls who have put some thought into their posts?
It's the CEO thats holding back my pay, While the company balance sheet fattens. Want to see real unemployment. Wait til RYAN\ROMNEY feed the investment side with a good ole helpng of deregulation and soaring mediacal cost. The largest company in Madison Wisconsin is American Family Insurance, RIGHT down the road from RYAN. These guy's aren't Car salesmen, They are INSURANCE SALESMEN. That the birth of a number man.
We sail on this boat of "Lunacy" to get to the Isle of Dementia. The winds of ignorance swell through the waves of illeteracy. Learn to read the compass of policy, not be blown into the shores of economic destuction for most to satisfy a few 2%.
This is exactly the graph i had in mind that is not being used to defend RoTney's jobless BS and i wonder if an updated national debt chart starts showing a new trend.
So does this bump the unemployment rate back up to 8% or more?
I can explain the bump because I am in those numbers.
I had a contract from 12/2011 to 7/12 but when I tried to file for UI my income wasn't in the correct quarters to qualify. I had to wait till the October quarter to file. That was last week so I am probably not alone. I'm sure these requirements are the same in other states so that would account for the jump in the UI Claim counts.
Please note that since the the UI rate dropped below 8% that cancelled the extensions.