Late last week, a CNN poll of Florida voters found something interesting. Among likely voters, Mitt Romney enjoys a slight edge over President Obama, 49% to 48%, but among registered voters, the president has a large advantage, 50% to 43%.
In other words, Florida voters overall clearly prefer Obama, but a whole lot of Obama supporters in Florida just don't intend to show up. Though the results weren't quite this dramatic in the new NBC/WSJ poll, the national trend is pointing in a similar direction.
I put together this chart to help illustrate the gap -- among likely voters, the two candidates are tied at 47% each, while among registered voters, the president leads by five. Other recent national polls also point to the same phenomenon, with Obama faring much better with the adult population overall, and worse with those most likely to actually vote.
At a distance, this is a mixed bag for both sides. The good news for Obama is that he has room to grow -- there are voters out there who want him to win, but are inclined to stay on the sidelines. If they can be motivated to cast a ballot, the president's odds improve considerably.
The bad news for Obama is that, with just two week to go, he may very well lose because his supporters made a choice not to show up when it counted.
If you're thinking this dynamic seems kind of familiar, there's a good reason for that.
About a week before the 2010 midterms, a Washington Post/ABC News poll found Republicans leading in all the relevant categories -- generic ballot, economic credibility, personal values -- among those likely to show up and cast a ballot. At the same time, the exact same poll shows Democrats leading in all the relevant categories -- generic ballot, economic credibility, personal values -- among registered voters.
The larger population wasn't exactly eager to see a GOP wave, but Democratic voters weren't motivated; they stayed on the couch; and Republicans made massive gains nationwide because their engaged supporters showed up.
To be sure, in much of the country, Republican policymakers have waged a "war on voting," intended to restrict and discourage Democratic voters from accessing their own democracy. But what's jarring is the notion of Obama supporters doing Republicans' job for them by having the opportunity to elect their preferred candidate, but choosing not to.
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Before we enter panic mode about this, we might want to look at what kind of "likely voter screens" the pollsters are using. I'd be willing to bet that Gallup and Rasmussen's screens would be better named "likely Republican voters." And let's not forget that younger voters may not be making it through those screens because a number of polls don't include cell phones.
Gallup uses land lines and blocks caller ID's. Who answers those? Rasmussen uses automated polling. Both types of polls are favorable to Republicans. Nate Silver takes this into account in his forecasting model.
Make no mistake, the race is very close.
This election will come down to who has the most effective GOTV efforts. There is no question that the President has many more feet on the ground, but how effective they are at getting people out to vote has yet to be seen. I know first hand (at least here in Ohio) that a significant amount of effort is taking place now and over the next two weeks to convince people to get off the sidelines. Whenever someone comes into the OFA office they are always asked to vote early if they possibly can. I am surprised at the number of people who say they like to vote on election day, even if there are lines, but some of them are being convinced to vote early and the others will get many reminders, in email, on the phone and in person, to get out and vote on election day.
I agree -- the race is close, but I really don't think it's tied. And I think the "voter enthusiasm gap" favoring Republicans is flat wrong. Look at how lopsided early voting is in Ohio and several other states. If Republicans are so enthusiastic, how come they're not out there banking votes for Romney?
However the youngest voters have the lowest turnout and are the least motivated. With college grads not being able to get a job, they are the most disappointed with the promise of Obama and will stay home on Election Day.
The type of thinking dalloway illustrates is what gets Democrats beat. Period. Democrats need to get out of their own little worlds. Talk to a wingnut and understand just how much it's like staring into the eyes of a barnyard animal. Then understand half of the country is like that and they would like nothing more than to get rid of that "other" residing in THEIR White House.
This race is tied people. If you think it's important not to turn the keys over to the Republicans so they can destroy the 20th century, make the 21st a hellhole banana republic, and condemn the planet to the worst predictions of the IPCC, then you best be trying to see if there's something you can do besides gaming the race and making snarky comments on blogs.
Here's some suggestions. Post your own recommendations.
- http://pol.moveon.org/2012calls/cantgo.html
- http://www.barackobama.com/call/times?utm_medium=email&utm_source=obama&utm_content=Sign+up+to+make+calls+using+our+online+call+tool+this+weekend&utm_campaign=em12_20121019_jb_ct3&source=em12_20121019_jb_ct3
- https://call.barackobama.com/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=obama&utm_content=go+ahead+and+start+making+calls+right+now&utm_campaign=em12_20121019_jb_ct3&source=em12_20121019_jb_ct3
I will drag my brother sister to vote early this week , he is very unmotivated by obama now , my step mother is always too busy , I will drag her there to , people who do not believe early voting helps are sorrily miss informed , everyone can come up with an excuse on the day of the election and just blow it off , being able to casually go the week before helps immensely
I will be going to volunteer at obama campaign head quarters also this week , a lot of working people with kids are just to busy to know how close this vote is
Good for you, Patango. We need everybody working hard to reach the disinterested and let them know how important it is for Obama to still be President for the next four years. (And as important to avoid the disaster or Republican power.)
Any Democrat I run across on November 7 who says they didn't vote had best be wearing their track shoes and be in good running condition.
Any Democrat I run across on November 7 who says they didn't vote had best be wearing their track shoes and be in good running condition.
Because you are going to kick his ass???!!! HA! HA! HA!
Historically there have always been more registered democrats than republicans but the republicans have always been better at getting out their base.
Don't boo, vote.
Until they faced the Obama ground game in 2008. And it's stronger this year.
Agreed, Rollo. I'm in the thick of the Obama ground game here in my township, and this team is working unbeliavably hard. And we are just one team. I keep thinking of our efforts magnified by 5000 other teams around the country, and it helps keep me sane when I'm looking at poll results.
LOL
sorry is this the new enthusiasm gap?
but four years ago it was a neck in neck race as well, and we seen how that turned out.
No, 4 years ago at this time, Obama had a significant lead. He had a significant lead before the 1st "debate" but 90 minutes of listless diffidence caused a nation constructed primarily of morons to mistake chest-puffing for a reason to turn the keys over to the people whose ideas and policies caused the mess.
As harsh as it sounds, DisgustedWithItAll is absolutely correct. We live in a nation so disinterested with actual research, logic, history, etc that one "aggressive" debate performance is enough for them to look around and say: "I don't like where we are on X, Y, or Z issue. I'm gonna vote for the challenger." Many are not motivated to pay attention and recognize Romney's lies nor the fact that his policies got us into this mess to begin with. Ultimately, I think Pres. Obama will eek out a win, but it will be needlessly close for a variety of reasons.
They don't even say "I don't know where we are on X, Y, or Z issues." They barely know the issues exist and when they do they attribute misguided priorities t it (e.g., deficits and debt, foreign aid, SS and Medicare going bankrupt (they're not), etc.) What they go by is body language and the media mediocracy's blatherings about the horse race in the ether after the debate. That's how I knew the 1st "debate" was a disaster; the nation is a bunch of idiots, and Obama doesn't realize how much CEO-style brow-beating wins the day with the idiots. And now, here we are, on the verge of having the 20th century being erased when the correct result, if Americans were responsible intelligent people, would be Republicans politically extincted.
That this is even a close race, that such an awful candidate as romney even has a chance at getting elected, is proof of the idiocracy this country's become.
Of course, this was made well known after W was elected - twice! And some how, because Obama was not able to right the ship quickly enough after Bush's complete and utter failures, there are critics of him that have the nerve to declare that Obama is the worst president ever. Have they forgotten how woefully inept Bush was or did they actually think he did a good job?
There are encouraging signs that Republicans will become extinct, I just hope they don't get to inflict some long-term damage to this country, by way of a romney election, before they do.
Brewer you are too deep in the Forrest to see the trees. Agreed that Romney is a terrible choice as the republican nominee, however maybe the reason why this race is a dead heat with such an awful challenger is because the incumbent has been so awful for the last 4 years. The country is ready to move forward by making Obama a one term president as he himself predicted at the start of his term.
Well, lookie what we got here, folks. Another Fox-educated ignoramus named "Hank." No, hank, the country is in a lot better shape now than the shape it was left in. And you should be really pleased with the stagnation of the Boehner economy. After all, it was the House GOTea who made it their mission to stop the recovery. Don't you have some economic bad news to cheer for? Now off you go, dumba$$. Cheer for bad news, you hear!
Have another glass of Kool-Aid, Hank.
TCinLa - If you are referring to the Jim Jones cyanide drink, its Flavor Aid you idiot, not Kool-Aid. Get your digs right.
One of the things about polls this year is that there are so many and they all show different things, you can find a poll to support just about any position you want.
And the lazy Cable, and Network hosts obsess on them instead of trying to point out the lies, and educate the people about what is at stake like Ed and Rachel do. I used to enjoy Morning Joe but the neocons and blue Dems seem to dominate so I just go online after about 20 mins and look for Rachel and Ed and what they are talking about, and what you fine folks that comment have to say.
This kind of shhit makes me sick to my stomach. It's so difficult to believe somebody just can't be bothered. This is the most crucial Presidential election since the Civil War.
Please, folks, if you haven't considered the following, please do. I'm sure it helps just as much as delivering snarky comments here at the blog:
- http://pol.moveon.org/2012calls/cantgo.html
- http://www.barackobama.com/call/times?utm_medium=email&utm_source=obama&utm_content=Sign+up+to+make+calls+using+our+online+call+tool+this+weekend&utm_campaign=em12_20121019_jb_ct3&source=em12_20121019_jb_ct3
- https://call.barackobama.com/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=obama&utm_content=go+ahead+and+start+making+calls+right+now&utm_campaign=em12_20121019_jb_ct3&source=em12_20121019_jb_ct3
There's a typo below the chart; the first part should be "likely voters."
"among registered voters, the two candidates are tied at 47% each, while among registered voters, the president leads by five."
The pollsters don't have a very good track record when it comes to likely voters. Look at four years ago...they had the LV showing a clear McCain victory. http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108963/daily-breakdown-obama-struggling-likely-voters
the Obama Campaign has always known this was a GOTV election.
Well from what I am hearing the early voting is running about 2-1 for Dems . If the Dems aren't scared they should be.
If you didn't catch Bill Moyer's this weekend see if you can grab it online ...Matt Taibbi and Chrysta Frieland on Plutocrats in this country.
Forget Halloween , you want the bejebus scared out of you?
http://billmoyers.com/
Many do include cell phones but at a proportion that would be more indicative of say a Gen Xer who may have a landline but primarily uses a cell. Many Millennials don't own a landline, never have likely and so a whole generation of people are being missed. Plus half of the millennial generation is not grown up yet, I am one of the oldest millennials out here so the youngest ones are about 13 right now.
Report from Geezerville ...I haven't had a landline for 7 years .....and trust me no one has asked my opinion in any way shape or form.
Why would someone say they are voting and not show up? We must spread the word and have ways of getting people to the polls. The party has to get it going way before the deadline of the election. Not just registration but actually commitment. I still believe we shall win. How can we do the same mistake of electing someone similar to Bush/Chaney in Romney/Ryan?
You can help:
- http://pol.moveon.org/2012calls/cantgo.html
- http://www.barackobama.com/call/times?utm_medium=email&utm_source=obama&utm_content=Sign+up+to+make+calls+using+our+online+call+tool+this+weekend&utm_campaign=em12_20121019_jb_ct3&source=em12_20121019_jb_ct3
- https://call.barackobama.com/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=obama&utm_content=go+ahead+and+start+making+calls+right+now&utm_campaign=em12_20121019_jb_ct3&source=em12_20121019_jb_ct3
Not that polls can be influenced....seems like another misinformation tactic.
Oh, look, Democrats. Your friends and neighbors aren't going to bother to vote. Why should you?
I just wish Obama would articulate more of a vision--a vision of investing in America instead of the wealthy. It's there to be made, but he hasn't done it: http://therepublicon.blogspot.com/2012/10/what-romney-and-obama-wrong-on-economy.html
Not that polls can be influenced....seems like another misinformation tactic.
Oh, look, Democrats. Your friends and neighbors aren't going to bother to vote. Why should you?
I'm really having a hard time wrapping my brain around those "voters" that "might not" be showing up to vote, exactly what are they waiting for?! This election is all about the direction that this nation will take, will we continue along on the path that we're currently on growing (slowly perhaps) but at least WE still have our democracy (sort of); or will WE be yanked backward to the failed policies of George W. - this time on steroids as the Plutocracy takes over our government thereby ensuring that WE will be under fascist rule and the disenfranchisement of every American?!
Vote people, just get out and vote because our very future depends on it!
I can understand one likely scenario for a lack of Obama-voter enthusiasm; If Romney wins, we'll see much of their agenda successfully pushed through, and though the Republicans will try mightily to paint the Dems as the reason their policies are of no help, at least it will be much easier to defend our side if we aren't so divided on the president himself. We'll no longer have a Democratic president who turned around, immediately after his inauguration, and wrapped himself with the very banksters that were involved in the economic crisis. Combine the absence of anything resembling accountability towards Wall St/Big Bank malfeasance and misconduct, with his "looking forward, not back" in regards to Bush era crimes, yet has waged war on whistleblowers, even going so far as to bring back charges against some of those who helped us find out about Abu Ghraib, etc.
We will never see anyone in higher office defend Progressive policies, if we continue voting in plutocratic-friendly Dems. It's not my fault that Obama discarded his "Hope and Change" just as the Republicans opened the front in the war on Democracy itself. No more "Centrist" bull@!$%#, for me, and many others I know.
You're a phony or stupid.
You've got the most progressive legislative agenda that's been past in 3 decades, yet you seem to welcome someone who will reverse all of that? Progressive like progress. You know, moving forward not backwards.
I'm not buying it. You're attempting to depress Dems enthusiasm.
Edit: just as I thought, the above is your one and only comment.
FU "Tom"
My advice to undecided voter's.Stick with what we have.We know where he stand's with the real middle class.We know his foreign policy.We know the economy is improving.And we know he does'nt want to turn medicare into a voucher program.With Romney it's like a box of chocolate's you never know what your gonna to get, to quote a much smarter man than he is.
NPR had an interesting segment that stated young people would be extremely interested in and more likely to vote - if they could do it electronically on the net by i-phone or i-pad. Wouldn't it be interesting if the President announced this goal as part of his second term agenda? Sure way to get the young vote I would think.
You seem unclear on the concept . It is our mission to make it harder to vote . All those punks tend to vote democratic and we certainly don't want democracy running loose in this country.
/snark
Some partners and I started an Internet voting company in 1999 and we went out of business in 2004. After the 2000 election, when Republicans realized that, contrary to popular belief, it's much harder to steal a cyber-election, they made it their goal to block any and all attempts at the county level (where voting is controlled) to develop/test/implement Internet voting. It will take a sustained and full throated effort by the digital generation to change that.
Of course they don't want internet voting. What would Tagg Romney do with all those voting machines he OWNS? How is that not a conflict of interest? He owns the voting machines used in 5 or 6 states.
I cannot wait to see all the shocked talking heads on Nov. 7, because of Obama's "surprisingly!" lop-sided victory the day before.
My prediction: Obama by 5+ pct. pts.
That's the sort of thinking that keeps getting Democrats beat when they should have won. If you haven't talked to a wingnut today, get out and do so. They're not playing around. They're playing for keeps.
Democrats need to learn to play for keeps. There isn't much time to get up to speed.
http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/opinion/55019844-82/endorsement-romney-obama-president.html.csp
Salt Lake Tribune endorses Obama
Aww c'mon Rache, for Pete's sake, anyone including you who doesn't have their head in a dark musky place knows the national trend is BS because the prez isn't elected on a popular vote basis, right?
It's the Electoral College that matters and that means the only polls and trends that matter are the ones in the battleground states.
I'm going to vote for PBO but in my state that's analogous to trying to empty the ocean with a teacup - he just won't lose by as large a margin, but he still won't receive a single EC delegate from my state, even if I persuade a hundred of my buddies to let me drive them in limos to the polls on 11/6 or whenever.
Get back to me with the battleground state info (besides Florida, of course, which you did supply) and then let's talk.
I don't understand democrats. I've never a more unmotivated bunch of do nothings. VOTE
Dems are not unmotivated, the MSM wants you to believe that and become less enthusiastic.
Have you heard about early voting? Dems are dominating.
Does that sound like and unmotivated Democratic base?
Do not fall for the BS. In 2008 90% of registered voters came out to vote. In 2004 it was 88%. In 2000 it was 85%. In 1996 it was 82%. Notice a pattern?
http://www.census.gov/prod/2010pubs/p20-562.pdf
Don't believe the media narrative. These likely voter models are underestimating the turnout for minorities and young people based on what they deem a likely voter, especially hispanics.
Normally that likely to registered gap is like 2%, but in most of these polls it's been 5-7. That's just not going to happen. In 2004, Bush, who had a great GOTV effort, outperformed the pollsters "likely voter" predictions. Obama has the best ground game we've ever seen.
Coincidentally without taking this unusually stepped of wiping out a 5-7 point likely voter advantage for Obama, the MSM could not have the horse race that they crave. CNN has Obama leading by 7 in registered voters, but Romney leads by 1 with "likely" voters. That's a completely different race. A less dramatic race.
Don't believe the hype.
Guess which poll got the headline?
Vote.
Thanx Rollo
Voting and praying for an Obama win....we can't go backwards. If I could drive voters to the polls I would. GO OBAMA...and I'm getting nervous for the debate tonight too.
In 2012, the democrats early voting numbers are UP from 2008. Democrats have been turning out to vote. So far. Pollsters really don’t know who a likely voter is. They are just guessing.
In that 2010 Washington Post poll you cited, the democrats were trailing by 4 points among likely voters. After it was all over, the democrats were trailing by about 6 points among likely voters. Barack Obama only has about a 5 point lead among registered voters. Republicans always do 2-3 points better, when likely voters are counted, and democrats always do worse.
Is Barack Obama trailing 4-6 points with likely voters? NO! If Barack Obama supporters were so intent on not showing up, Barack Obama would probably be trailing by 5-10 points among likely voters. Instead, in national polls, Barack Obama, and Mitt Romney are either tied (within the margin of error), or sometimes Barack Obama is even slightly ahead. Barack Obama’s lead with likely voters is even more clear in swing state polls. If unenthusiastic democratic voters are able to keep up with “fired up,” likely republican voters, then that’s probably good for Barack Obama, and bad for Mitt Romney. People keep acting as though the popular vote decides the election. It doesn’t.
A lot of these Barack Obama voters from 2008, were voters who had never been interested in casting a vote, before, or hadn’t voted in decades. Now 4 years later, these morons are mad again, because they didn’t get their pony, and are no longer interested in voting again. A lot of these 2008 Obama voters, have gone back to becoming “undecided” voters in 2012, and they are the least interested in the election. Barack Obama won most of these people in 2008. But, these people are NOT the democratic base.
What I find so troubling is the ignorance of the voters and non voters in this Nation, it has come so front and center. People think that our President whoever may be has all the power to do what he wants, and if it doesn't happen, well then he failed. The truth is the president does not have that much power, without the dedication from congress and the senate, the president is powerless. This congrass has done everything they can do and more to unseat our President, when they know he proposes a bill that will do good which it return makes him look good, they block it, which means he cant even veto it! They were not thinking of us, they were thinking of their own agenda which is to have the whitehouse back at any cost. They have held Americans hostage, and they knew they could get away with this with the voters by means of making the president look bad, because on a whole the majority of voters either vote republican, racist, plain ignorant, or/and uniformed of the congress's doing. If only people could take a Government 101 class to find out how the system works!!! The right has done everything with lies and deceit to label the president as a Muslim, Satan worshiper, communist, ect............. which destroys democracy, and the damage can not be undone, it will come around and hurt everyone in some form or another at a later date and time, they just fail to think about that fact! Mitt is not a man of conviction so a vote for him is a vote for the right wing agenda, just look at Chris Christie, he is going to void the public education system in his state, and make all schools private, so that Corporate American can profit of funds, profit first education second! This is the repblican agenda with everything, medi-care, SS, profit first, care second. This way next time the stock market crashes, people will not just loose their retirement, they will loose their medi-care and SS too! I cant even image all the president could have done if he would have had a working congress rather than an anti-American Congress. Congress will keep their jobs and will not learn one dam* thing! I thought America was better than the rest, come to find out we are not! God Bless the US, and God Bless our President!
I have to say that in this day and age, there is no excuse to NOT vote! I got an absentee ballot because I work 12 hours and cannot make the polls if i work. My Mother always said if you don't vote, don't complain. I have not missed a vote in all my adults years. I always feel good about participating and being informed. Do your own research people.........we are pretty smart out here in TV land and don't need ads to make up our minds. At least i didn't! And BTW.......it is nobody's business how I vote. So just get out there and do it!
Good for you MomInFlorida.
Just vote.....no excuses. I work 12 hour days and got an absentee ballot. No complaining if you don't even try to vote.