I saw a curious headline from NPR this morning: "Romney Rides Momentum To Nevada, Colorado." Reuters had a similar headline this morning, touting Romney's "momentum," and Slate did the same thing yesterday.
I have no idea what they're talking about.
To be sure, the Republican saw significant, possibly even election-changing, gains after his first debate with President Obama three weeks ago, erasing the advantage the incumbent built up in September.
But what's happened since? By every measure, Obama won the second debate last week, then won again in the third debate. The polls that showed the president's lead evaporating have leveled off. Early voting totals have looked quite favorable for Democrats. In Nate Silver's model, Obama's odds of winning have gone from 61.1% two weeks ago to 68.1% yesterday.
So why simply ascribe Romney with "momentum"? Based on what, exactly? Does the Republican have momentum because he's telling the media he has momentum?
Politico's Mike Allen, who seemed to get snookered a bit yesterday, was more clear-eyed this morning.
As an antidote to the (perhaps) irrational Republican exuberance that seems to have seized D.C., we pause for the following public-service announcement. To be President, you have to win states, not debates. And Mitt Romney has a problem. Despite a great debate and what The Wall Street Journal's Neil King Jr. on Sunday called a polling "surge," Romney has not put away a single one of the must-have states. President Obama remains the favorite because he only needs to win a couple of the toss-ups. Mitt needs to win most of them.
A cold shower for the GOP: Most polling shows Romney trailing in Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa - by MORE than Obama trails in North Carolina. Glenn Thrush and Jonathan Martin reminded of us of the 2008 primary analogy: Whatever else Hillary Clinton had, Barack Obama had the math. And math, not momentum, gets you the big house, the bulletproof car, the cool plane.
Just to be clear, I'm not denying the fact that Romney has a very credible chance of winning this election and becoming president. My point, rather, is that the notion of Romney's "momentum" seems to be a hype-generated gift some in the media have decided to give the Republican, based on nothing in particular.
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C'mon give the new shiny object a chance . Obama can't have momentum for Pete's sake. He already had momentum in 2008
It occurs to me that I have never seen a positive news segment on Romney in the MSM other than Fox. Not one. Anybody out there got an example?
Blankman, the fact that you refuse to accept that:
a) FAUX NOOZ is the propaganda channel
b) Romney hasn't left "positive news" around any of his actions
c) The lame-stream MSM that you talk about are corporate owned and no longer really report news anyway
speaks volumes about your intellectual laziness. If Romney has done anything that didn't benefit himself - be it make him money or benefit his resume - I'm sure it was accidental.
Steve.
Your business is corrupt. I know very well how to write a comment that will get double digit approvals from readers. Your facebook likes are regularly in three digits- you are good and drawing traffic because you understand how to introduce drama to a story.
Look at what is going on here. At one level, you can provide the rational critique. It is legitimate to use drama to emphasize a truthful message. For example if there were a demonstrable trend in the polls then the momentum narrative would have some legitimacy. You can write a story showing that is not so.
This does not get at the key pathology though. It does not get at the cognitive circle jerk that pundits get into. Synchronization is a biological trait with survival value. The fatal weakness of the media to look for a synchronizing narrative after an event is precisely the source of Reagan's gaming of the media.
Write a story about that. Write stories about how the synchronization happens, and how it is so often severely mistaken. I pointed out how yesterday how the synchronization after the first Presidential debate was stupidly wrong, as history has shown. My twist was that I was talking about the Carter- Reagan debate.
An extended article could show how every point Carter made was right, and how every point Reagan was horribly wrong and avoided substance in favor of projecting a simple narrative theme that the media could synchronize on. Carter's penchant for being fact based could be portrayed as being the weaknesses of the egg-head: muddled, indecisive, and so on.
The scary part is that selfish herd behavior accelerates the members of the school of fish to seek safety by clumping as rapidly as possible. This requires perpetuating crises rather than solving them. It is Kleins thesis.
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the last sentence pretty much sums it up for me, "My point, rather, is that the notion of Romney's "momentum" seems to be a hype-generated gift some in the media have decided to give the Republican, based on nothing in particular."
My theory is that the media never let the public know the real Romney. Seems like all you would ever see is a quick sound-bite or gaff and then the balance of the story was commentary or out of context spin. The debates were the first time general, mildly interested people tuned in and got to experience (for the first time) long periods of unfiltered Romney.
The biggest mistake was when Obama failed to show-up for the first debate, and the ensuing media-hype, it sparked the peoples interest. On the subsequent debates, they tuned-in and found out that (even though Romney lost the debate) he still sounded presidential and not so bad. They then got back to their busy lives. and now when polled they say "yeah that Romney guy's not so bad".
Too bad that octopus that had an uncanny ability to select 'winners' isn't around right now. Guess Mitt ate him...
Maybe he was sitting on one and it got stuck to his pants. Slippery fellows, those Momentums. Tic-tacs are better.
Obama is currently at 70% on Nate Silver's blog.
I think the odds are higher than 70% because the polls are having a difficult time factoring in early voting. Rasmussen today had Romney up 50 to 46. He commented, "This is the second straight day with Romney enjoying a 4-point advantage. Prior to that, with the exception of the convention bounces, neither candidate had led by more than three points for months. However, it is not clear whether this represents a lasting change in the race or is merely statistical noise". I voted early and after I did, I had a call from a polling outfit that continued with its questions even after I said that I had already voted. I don't know if they will categorize me a "likely" voter or throw my responses out. Perhaps that is what Rasmussen meant by "statistical noise".
I'm surprised that Mr. Benen didn't pick up on the fact that when the republicans are wrong or behind they lie to make it sound better...OMentum is all President Obama.....
Right. And they have many media allies that help them do it.
Halperin and Politico come to mind.
Halperin: Voted #1 hack of 2011 @ Salon.com . Biggest dispenser of repeated lies and conventional wisdom.
I believe he must be going for a second title
.
Halperin is enroute to a 2nd title with a major assist from The Morning Joke Show and other MSNBC programming.
His major competition this year is Jennifer Rubin, who also was provided a platform this morning on MSNBC's Chuckie Toad Show (today hosted by Luke 'neopotism is the only qualification' Russert).
We talk about the right wing bubble of reality, how about the media as a bubble?
The entire news media is turning into a set of fun house mirrors.
Pretty soon the only news we will get will be driven by trending twitter topics.
I watch Aljazeera sometimes, but, sometimes it's a day late. Channel 8 is good. I can't watch local news it makes me want to hide in my bathtub, and wait for the tornado. We just need the facts, Jack.
Only one thing can save Obama's campaign now: release Romney's missing tax returns from 2009 and before. Show the voters what this scumbag is really like.
Complete nonsense.
Probably right there. The Reps have recent WH emails about the Benghazi inaction. The Dems only got Allred with a 30-year old story and the latest Trump-circus entry.
The 'spin' machine constantly uses their NEW math. Obama won 2 out of 3 debates. ROMNEY won the 'debate season'. Demeanor is more important than SUBSTANCE. Women care about the economy and will vote against their interests. Don't worry about the SENATE, it takes 60 votes for a 'majority'. Fox puts out BS and the MEDIA reports it as 'news'. It's all a big LIE and yet we hear it over and over again...at the same time the conservatives say they are 'attacked' and the Lamestream media doesn't REPORT it. Give me a break.
No, Steve, I think it's based on something: They want Romney to win. I know you can't say it, but let's not kid ourselves. Hacks like Halperin don't even try to hide their bias anymore.
These media people know that they can influence the public's perception. The media reaction to the 1st debate contributed heavily to Romney's resurgence.
The only people that are still undecided are the uninformed, and they can be heavily influence by what the media is telling them. They're too lazy to educate themselves on the issues and the candidates. If they vote at all, they'll rely on what the media is saying.
Sad but true.
Halperin is a spineless Scarborough puppet.
Halperin literally makes me nauseous. Did anybody catch Charlie Rose after each of the "debates?"
Pathetic. Simply pathetic.
The NPR reporting of this campaign, on damn near every NPR, APM, and WBUR produced show from Morning Edition to All Things Considered, has just about given me a stroke. The whole journalistic infrastructure of NPR is in the grips of something akin to Stockholm Syndrome and Battered Spouse Syndrome.
Bend-over-and-choose-your-orifice syndrome is more like it. I've almost stopped listening, and certainly am not going to donate until it changes.
Seeing as they no longer proudly call themselves tea baggers I suggest we refer to them as Mitt wits, they ignore what a failure robme is because they are following a guy who is following the president.
Let's talk about Romney's tax returns and watch his momentum disappear:
"Would you really vote for a tax cheat?"
"How patriotic do you consider tax cheats to be?"
"How well-vetted do you consider presidential candidates who do not disclose their tax records?"
I wish they would publish the returns so I can model MY tax returns after them. If the Gov't creates these loopholes and I DON'T take advantage of them, then I am stupid.
Romney is riding some momentum, nobody has ever asked the question. If it's artificially flavored with Elephant Dung though. Artificially flavored momentum still doesn't change the Electoral College numbers, which Mitt is still losing.
Murdock is an absolute idiot if he thinks God intended a woman to be raped, when Murdock said right out that God must of intended it to happen. That pig Murdock knows nothing about God and at the same time listens to narrow-minded men that know nothing about God also. God has given everybody freewill to choose what they want to do, but God has given nobody a right to inflict abuse, misery, despair, or death on another. When we pass on we are judged by our intentions to others and raping someone is causing abuse, misery, despair, and possible death that is not a product of love. For too long these narrow-minded men in these churches have been causing this abuse, misery, despair, and death and it is high time it stops. Just because some man wears some preachers clothes does not mean he is someone of God or Jesus. And these men standing behind these pulpits are just men and hypocrites and have no right to be taking the freewill given by God to all of us away from anybody. If these narrow-minded men think they are going to put anybody into any form of bondage again by a law or otherwise that you can be assured will cause misery, despair, abuse, and death. But this time, it will be these hypocritical men that will have to pay the price for wanting to create such darkness in the world again. And do not be fooled Romney and the other Republicans are just as bad. What people do not realize is we have been fighting to get closer to that better world and as we discover what the wrongs have been in the world. It is these narrow-minded hypocritical men who have been lying and deceiving people to what Jesus really stood for, because of their desire for power, control, and greed.
Correction: While it may seem a minor distinction, Mourdock did NOT say that it is God's will that a woman gets raped. He said that "if a raped woman gets pregnant, it is God's will". Still @sshole either way...
Regardless, however, Murdock said it, it is still by all this talk of the other Republicans on what laws they would make that by the result of these laws they would make rape legal. Especially, when they brought up the subject of a legal rape and in the end Murdock would support that same law, since he supports Romney, Ryan, and Akin. Perhaps, Murdock didn't say it right out, but he might as well have, since so many other Republicans have supported a law on the subject of legal rape. Don't forget these Republicans do follow each other like a pack of sheep that were bred into submission to follow the worst of the lot.
In the dying days of the Roman Empire a horse was elected.
This time around, we'll just get the horse's ass, and will have to wait until 2016 for the rest of the beast.
If you look through history, you soon come to realize that if you let narrow-minded men take control of something, it will soon turn into a hell hole. Look at all these religious hypocrites trying to do exactly that and way too many of those idiots are in the Republican Party. Bush and Chenney were not the only problem, when you got a whole crap load of them still today.
Never underestimate the stupidity of *Amercia. Mitt could theoretically already have this in the bag! "We" "elected" George Bush twice.. Too soon? Besides, this "momentum" is clearly libraul media bias(ed)!
Not really. In 2000, Gore won the popular vote, Florida was jiggered and the Supreme Court selected Bush. Then, as now, the MSM were for the GOP.
But seriously considering Romney as having momentum from one debate in which he spoke over the president and strutted around looking superior, and losing two in which he made HORRENDOUS errors of fact and looked so ill at ease in the last one he agreed with the pres. on everything just to try to get out of there is not momentum.
Momentum is a Rove concept, intended to claim that everyone's getting on Mitt's bandwagon. What? When even the Salt Lake City newspaper endorses Obama? One can only wonder.
In 2004, Bush had the election stolen for him by the Repuknicans controlling the vote counting in Ohio.
It's momentum because Mitt's campaign says it is. Just like they say that Obama's campaign is taking on water. If Fox News repeats it enough, it becomes the truth to people who want to be told what to think.
Please refer to Jon Chait: http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/10/romney-says-hes-winning-its-a-bluff.html
This is the sort of stuff that should let even the unintelligent know that the media is simply a group of intellectual mediocrities. And that's putting it mildly.
Seriously. Watch your local TV news, and just watch these clowns. Imagine what it's like to try to engage some of these puffed-up buffoons in some sort of serious discussion. You know very well what it would be like.
Let's look at that insipid half-grin on Romney's face again. Could anyone take that for 4 years?
Romney said he will create 12 million good paying job's.If that's all it take's to add "momentum" to his campaign,maybe Pres.Obama should raise him a million job's.People should realize that Romney consider's people that make $250k per year the middle class.So when he say's he wo'nt raise taxe's on the middle class he's not talking about a person making $30,000 to $100,000 per year he's talking about the upper 5% of the country.Another thing is, what does Romney consider good paying job's $8.00 per hr.$15.00 per hr $100.00 per hr.,what is it.His pie in the sky campaign is based on nothing but lie's, he's a man without conviction and has nothing to offer but to take care of the wealthy, he does NOT deserve to be elected to the highest office in the land.
Correction: Willard does NOT say the 'middle class' is $200,000 to $250,000 in income. He says that the 'middle income' is $200,000 to $250,000. He also does NOT say that he wants to cut taxes on the 'middle class'. He says that he wants to cut taxes on the 'middle income'.
Pay attention to when Willard says 'middle income' and when he says 'middle class' and the context of what he is promising when he says these phrases. The corporately owned media have never picked up on the different usages, including Rachel Maddow and Steve Benen.
Right because you play childish word games where you ignore that middle class and middle income are the same people not the $200,000 a year crowd those are above middle income, middle means the folks who are the 50%, $200,000 a year puts them at the 25% to 15% range as middle income is $50,000. Really you Mitt wits want us to take you serious but as you display daily there are no lies you won't repeat or defend.
Steve, I think you are confusing the term "momentum" with the term "advantage." There's no question that Romney's campaign has gained momentum. His rallies are larger and more boisterous. His fundraising is up. He and his supporters sound more excited, more energized.
So has the momentum turned into an advantage? It doesn't appear so. Polls still show him trailing, and the electoral map does not seem to be in his favor.
I heard the same story and it didn't seem particularly pro- or anti-Romney to me. It was just the reporter, who has probably been following Romney's campaign for months until he is sick to death of the election, trying to make a story on the one-millionth Romney campaign rally interesting.
Thank you for this bit. Reading all these references to this manufactured "momentum", I felt like I was going a bit insane.
Who ascribes 'momentum'?
Mr. Benen - turn on the network that provides your paycheck.
The corporately owned media, including MSNBC. Today, the Morning Joke, Luke Russert (subbing for Chuckie Toad), and Jansing have all toed the repuke line on RawMoney have momentum. The lead-in for the next program promoted that they will be discussing the RawMoney momentum versus math.
The other disgusting thing being discussed by the corporately owned media (and especially MSNBC) is that Obama has not put forth an agenda for a second term and, per the Morning Joke, should be disqualified as such.
The only things that matter are the votes. Vote! I have voted. Have you?
I will vote on election day. Other than absentee ballots, early voting here is not easy. However, from a progressive's view...
An update from
The Mississippi of the MidwestIndiana:Governor race is Mike '2nd stupidest person on the face of this planet' Pence (R) vs John 'Mr. Invisibility' Gregg (D) vs Rupert 'some tv game show winner' Boneham (L).
Senate race is 'Teabagger' Mourdock vs Joe 'DLC/DINO/Repuke-Lite' Donnelly vs a Libertarian.
Governor Race: Gregg, the supposed democrat, is running on a platform of cutting taxes for corporations and the wealthy. Pence is running on a platform of cutting taxes for corporations and the wealthy. Bonham is running a joke candidacy.
Senate Race: Mourdock's advertising is all about him being a 'moderate'. Donnelly's advertising is all about him being a 'more moderate repuke than the repuke'. Overwhelming amount of advertising by Rove's Crossroads and other wealthy front groups working to get Mourdock elected.
I will vote on election day. I will hold my nose and vote for the DLC/DINO/Repuke-Lite candidate of the dumbocrap party. I am in the undecided category for the senate race. I may vote for the Libertarian because of my level of dislike for the dumbocrap party's nomination of a repuke-not-so-lite who promises to vote to continue tax cuts for the wealthy and cut taxes more on corporations and who promises to vote to eliminate ObamaCare.
As RawMoney is not a democrat and not a n!gger, he will carry this state in the presidential election. In protest, I may vote for the Libertarian or Green Party candidate.
The only affirmative vote that I shall make is for my black, muslim congressman Andre Carson.
they should have fired laisson when they fired juan williams. they both sucked
at the foxnews-tit for 15 years and provide nothing but republican slanted disinformation. i will never contribute to npr again.