If the White House hopes to see initial unemployment claims drop just before the election, officials got their wish. The new figures from the Department of Labor -- the last report before Election Day -- show a move in the right direction.
Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 363,000 in the week of Oct. 21-27, keeping them in a range that indicates little change in U.S. hiring patterns over the past few months. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected claims to fall to 365,000. Initial claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 372,000 from an original reading of 369,000, based on more complete data collected at the state level, according to the U.S. Labor Department.
Note, these figures reflect economic activity last week, and the results were unaffected by Hurricane Sandy.
To reiterate the point I make every Thursday morning, it's worth remembering that week-to-week results can vary widely, and it's best not to read too much significance into any one report.
In terms of metrics, when jobless claims fall below the 400,000 threshold, it's considered evidence of an improving jobs landscape, and when the number drops below 370,000, it suggests jobs are being created rather quickly. We've been below the 370,000 threshold four of the last six weeks, and nine of the last 15 weeks.
And with that, here's the chart showing weekly, initial unemployment claims going back to the beginning of 2007. (Remember, unlike the monthly jobs chart, a lower number is good news.) For context, I've added an arrow to show the point at which President Obama's Recovery Act began spending money.
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The job numbers will improve again because of the massive clean-up necessary from Sandy due to the influx of federal and insurance funds. Wisely spent, this money can begin the improvements in infrastructure that are already needed or are anticipated to be needed.
Not to mention the attendant sectors like steel, concrete, timber, and then there is the service and support areas for the clean up crews. All the cars that will have to be replaced...the list goes on and on
The next improvement in 'job numbers' will be irrelevant- because the numbers will come AFTER Nov. 6.
Just as those "12 million jobs" will come, no matter who wins the election. Kind of like promising "If I am elected, we will have 4 seasons in 2013!"
The most achient of campaign promises:
"I Will bring back the Sun and the land will be reborn and grow again...sometime around March"
Dragoon21b
Dragoon21b
You wouldn't be referencing the right wing idiots & FOX NEWS' mockery of President's Obama's SPEECH would you?
FYI: A 2003 Florida appeals court case decided that Fox News has a First Amendment right to lie:
Our social compact is on display for the whole world to see. Sandy is a tragic reminder of our need to focus on ourselves as neighbors, as loved ones, as tolerant beings, and as a people who know when someone is trying to sell us a whole lot of hogwash about privatization, business savvy, magical economics, and wait for it . . . cleaning up football fields!
A vote for Mitt Romney is a vote to waste our national future! -Kevo
There were three possibilities for today: DoL would release the report on time and it would show things getting better, DoL would release it on time and it would show things getting worse or DoL would delay the release due to Sandy. Fortunately for the Republicans, they had a conspiracy theory ready to cover both the first and the last possibilities.
So yeah, any minute now, the Wingnut Wurlitzur choral will be appearing to tell us that the Kenyan Usurper forced the Labor Department to release this report before it was ready to shore up his crumbling campaign and stall the Romentum.
Dang, you stole my joke.
Steve - EVERY week you make the point about the 370,000 threshold. Can you update the chart with a horizontal line there? Would provide some visual support for an important hurdle.
Do the math...that is a drop of 180 per state...pretty dismal when you consider the size of our great country
Why aren't MSNBC talking about the Natgeo movie this Sunday on Seal Team Six
I won't argue the minor ups and downs, but the overall pattern is clear. Up wildly before and down steadily after. Let me think, which do I like better?
Hi EVERYONE This Sunday on NATGEO, there is a Documentary by Harvey Weinstein on the Raid on Osama Bin Laden- It was detailed.