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After having largely ignored Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes for months, Republicans are suddenly poised to take it quite seriously. Republican vice presidential hopeful Paul Ryan will be in Harrisburg on Saturday, and he'll be followed by Mitt Romney a day later.
With signs of the presidential race tightening in Pennsylvania, a state long considered out of his reach, Mitt Romney is planning a last-minute visit to the state.
The Romney campaign confirmed on Thursday that the Republican nominee would hold a rally on Sunday, most likely in the Philadelphia area, but it did not have a location set. The visit was first reported by The Daily.
Earlier this week, the campaign and a pro-Romney "super PAC" made an advertising push into Pennsylvania, a state that has been considered strong for President Obama.
Now, it's certainly possible that the Republican campaign is looking to "expand the map," and sees an opportunity in the Keystone State worth pursuing. It's more likely, though, that Team Romney is discouraged by its standing in Ohio, and is scrambling to find an alternative route to 270 electoral votes.
Regardless, as this strategy unfolds, keep a few things in mind. First, according Real Clear Politics' round-up of poll results, there have been 24 statewide polls in Pennsylvania since Aug. 1. Of these surveys, how many have shown President Obama leading Romney? All 24.
Second, while two in-person appearances certainly can't hurt, Romney/Ryan hasn't made a serious effort in Pennsylvania this year, and therefore has no meaningful campaign infrastructure in place (GOTV operation, field offices, etc.). Last-minute ads and rallies don't change that.
And finally, there's recent history to consider: we've seen this play before.
In 2008, John McCain visited Pennsylvania the Sunday before the election, but Obama won the state.
In 2004, George W. Bush visited Pennsylvania the day before the election, but John Kerry won the state.
In 1996, Bob Dole visited Pennsylvania the Friday before the election, but Bill Clinton won the state.
In 1992, George H.W. Bush visited Pennsylvania the day of the election, but Bill Clinton won the state.
I'm noticing a pattern here.





The math doesn't look too good for Romney right now. Picking up PA, he'd still need to get CO, NV or NH...But that is about as good a shot as he has right now, and that's with a tenuous grip on VA.
Too bad for him that the Right doesn't believe in math.
or truth.
Let's hope their belief in voter fraud and owning vote counting machine companies doesn't outweigh their other faults.
I hope nobody here is getting confident. That's the last thing Democrats need and one of the reasons Democrats underperform. Always remember just how vicious and aggressive the Republican party of dead ideas really is.
I think at this point, we're more in "undecideds want to be on the winning side" territory than "Dems get overconfident and stay home." But don't worry, our swing-state machines aren't letting up.
FUHGETTABOUTIT!!!! Fools Gold!
We are coming out and we are voting you can take that to the bank.
Vote Obama/Biden 2012!! Protect Women's and Worker's Rights!
Massive Republican Voter Fraud Scheme Uncovered in Canada.Logistics experts within the U.S. Customs service were perplexed when nearly every passenger bus line along U.S.-Canadian border had a spike in their reservations to nearby U.S. small towns for Monday, November 5.. Principle Investigator Read Intuit said the Customs Service took only a short time to impound the vehicles involved, but that the investigation took the combined efforts of U.S. and Canadian law enforcement officials and political analysts. "Seems that some unsavory characters sent out some confusing anti-Obama emails," Intuit said. Swing state Democrats received emails advising them that due to the hurricane, voting had been moved to Wednesday. Word quickly spread. Seeing an opening, republican operatives seized on the opportunity. With the democrats focusing their GOTV operations on Wednesday, republicans planned on importing persuadable Canadians into the U.S. by bus for a quick-hit voter scheme using the absent democrats names."Funny thing though," said Intuit, "there was only one 8-passenger mini-van on the reservation lists."
Very little presidential advertising is on my TV, here in Berks County. We are on the the 'frontier', with solidly D Philly on one side, and the R of 'Pennsyltucky' on the other.
Advertising is almost all for local candidates, and unless you are a political junky, you don't know what party they belong to, since they NEVER mention it.
Yard signs are a third of what they were in previous elections. Turnout will be an interesting number- after the fact.
Day - I noticed the same thing here in Florida all the local candidate ads all negative all the time ,no party noted. This includes one that makes me laugh out loud . Dan Webster(R) running against Val Demmings former police Chief . She has never held public office , but they use the same sorry ...shes a tax and spend librul...and all the sorry lines, even though she has never cast one vote .
Post truth? you betcha
The Republican platform isn't on what they'll do for Americans, but to make everyone hate the other guy...
They've got nothing but hate. That is a great future to look forward to.
@sick-n-effin-tired,
Dan ("she must submit to me")Webster is another teabagger who, I hope, will be booted out of office after he has lost in this election. He lies about his opponent, just like every TeaPublican currently running for office. This year, his opponent is a woman who he believes must submit to him. That same "tax and spend" lying line is also used here in Pittsburgh (PA) by TeaPublicans candidates.
I've seen a real uptick in Romney ads here in Bucks County. All of the yard signs I have seen are for GOP candidates, too. About equal numbers of Obama and Romney bumper stickers. However, as I have mentioned before, I'm heavily involved in the Obama ground game here and I can tell you it is superb. Very hard working and very dedicated. I have seen no evidence whatsoever of a ground game for Romney. For that reason alone, the GOP ads and candidate visits here don't worry me a bit.
The reason you only see Romney yard signs is because the GOP rips down other people's signs. It's harder to rip the bumper off someone's car, that's why those are balanced a little better.
We put a yard sign in a friend's yard because he was more visable to the public than we are in the rural area, and someone stole it. So much for free speech, GOTP! Would love to know who, as it's a crime, and yes, neighbors I would turn you in. The only freedoms the right want for anyone is theirs. Sad, disgusting lot, all!! Certainly reflect their robot leader's values.
With Sandy this week and potential weather next week, maybe they're hoping to take advantage of depressed turnout in the eastern half of the state.
Or maybe it's just flop sweat.
I loooooove the smell of wingnut flop sweat in the morning - it smells like VICTORY!
A last gasp for the liars, deniers and trolls, oh my!
My guess is the R&R campaign is in the "we have to do something" mode. PA does allow travel to other key states pretty easily -- at least when you're not in the aftermath of a big storm. Is the R&R campaign good enough to do an event on short notice in PA without transportation or ground screw-ups?
A Romney event, without screw-ups is like a UFO: Rarely seen by anyone with an IQ of over 15
Pennsylvania is always Lucy and the football to the Republican's Charlie Brown. They tried to split the electoral votes there as they do well in rural areas but lose the state in Philly and Pittsburgh.
And really, what else is he going to do with all that money? Every swing state ad market is probably packed - Voters can't see the trees for the forest. Maybe this illustrates that the effect of Citizens United has limits.
We love the smell of Schadenfreude in the morning, as all that Big Money is pissed down a rathole!
(I would think some of those FatCats would seen the writing on the wall, and put their cash back in their hidey holes.)
Keeping donors giving was the whole point of Karl Rove's WSJ Op-Ed yesterday: See we're getting things done with your millions, don't worry, give more. Please don't notice how I've hardly provided any data here to back this up and mostly all I have is Gallup anyway, but you don't know that means it's 1-2% optimistic for the GOP. What? You think I'm playing mind games with you? Who else are you gonna call?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204846304578090820229096046.html
and put their cash back in their hidey holes
But...But...But...I thought they used that money to create jobs?
To see Citizens United and bloated campaign contribution spending backfire on these ever-so-sure folks would really be a shot in the arm for fair play.
The rich seem to feel that all any obstacles in the path of increased profits can be removed by a thick application of money, case in point: getting rid of a strong president outside GOP control who tends to be annoying with his lack of sympathy for the problems of the grossly wealthy.
It would be nice if the 1% were given a small example that money can't buy everything, such as US elections and/or will of the People.
Carl Rove hopes that those donors don't about Nate Silver's 538 blog or Dr. Sam Wang's blog. Their statistic models predict that Mitt Rmoney has only a very little chance to win this election.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
http://election.princeton.edu/
I wonder what the "commission percentage" is for Rove and the rest of the grifters running this Citizens United scam on the people whose existence proves there's no connection between the brain and the bank account?
"In our personal ambitions we are individualists. But in our seeking for economic and political progress as a nation, we all go up, or else we all go down, as one people." Franklin Roosevelt, 1937
"The point is, is that when we succeed, we succeed because of our individual initiative, but also because we do things together." Barack Obama, 2012
The choice voters will make in 2012 is far more stark than the choice voters had to make in 1936. Alf Landon lost in a landslide in 1936. Roosevelt was elected 2 more times.
As you make up your mind, I ask you to take just 5 minutes to listen to a piece of history. Would you have voted for Franklin D. Roosevelt or Alf Landon in 1936? I have no doubt that those who chose Roosevelt would vote for Barack Obama in 2012.
http://massachusettsobserver.blogspot.com/2012/11/dont-ignore-history-remember-on.html
Well stated, Brent. Thank you.
When have either of these two made a serious effort at all. It's all "hate on the other guy cause we got nothing."
Dems may have won PA in years past but they never had voter suppression to deal with.
I wonder if this will be the norm going forward in future elections. I guess it depends on how successful the schemes of the RepubiCONS are. I fear their schemes will just be more elaborate and creative.
It's a sad state of affairs that the race is this close. And today we'll see another weeks worth of "Mitts Mendacity." But mendacity isn't a word I'd choose in describing Mitt, it's too fluffy and we're too kind.
We've given him a pass on his taxes, on his lies and on his mental-ness.
I live in Montgomery County, 20 minutes outside of Philly. We saw at least 6 Romney tv ads in an hour. It was unbelievable. I commented to my family, 'I am glad we were not considered a swing state.' We turned the channel. If others had to go thru this for months, they have my sympathy.
Six in one hour is nothing. In Iowa, we're seeing four in each commercial break. That comes out to about 20 per hour. My mute button is begging for mercy.
I live in Wisconsin, and my greatest fear is that my remote will crash before Tuesday. I have been reduced to watching snatches of shows I would never watch just to escape the endless barage of negative advertising.
I am in the Pittsburgh area and man, last night all of a sudden I noticed that Romney ads were all over the place. One right after another after another. Can't even watch the local news because of all the ads in the commercial breaks. MAKE IT STOP!! If it isn't a Romney ad it is the local pols trying to out sleeze each other. I long for a car ad or a cereal ad or even an ad for those disgusting male enhancing pills!!
Lolz, it's almost over. I miss the Hillary/Barack war from four years ago when she said "Shame on you Barack Obama!" and he called her "Annie Oakley". Now that @!$%# was, at the very least, entertaining!
T minus 4 counting today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
All the ads do make me worry a bit. In previous elections, the GOP candidate would make a stop in Pa but spend very little on ads towards the end. Romney and his allies are spending serious money in the state this time. Will it have an impact?
OT: Saw a big fat white woman in a big fat Cadillac driving down 280S with an Rmoney sticker on her car yesterday. She was a self-caricature! She had a look on her face too like "I've got mine and I'm keeping it, I'm not giving any away!"
Was that caddie on roads that she build herself?
Hey, some of us fat white women voting for Obama! Just sayin
Mitt Rmoney is wasting money here in PA. I live in Pittsburgh and I can't wait to go cast my vote for President Obama next Tuesday.
My nephew and his wife and her family all say the same thing.
Don't steroetype that if I'm looking seriously at Romney that I must be a)wealthy b)ignorant of the various issues c)a right wing loon
I am a middle class 54 year old registered Independent. A small business owner. A news junky who watches CBS morning news, ABC evening news, and switches between CNN, MSNBC, and Fox through the evening. Oh, ABC and NBC Sunday morning news shows.
I am looking at...
A bloated health care bill that people couldn't read before they voted for it. A bill that did not address the biggest area of concern for me... cost containment. I pay 100% of my premium costs. Guess what? I just needed to move to a high deductible plan in order to still afford insurance. Also, the timing of the bill... Right when the economy was so fragile, businesses were handed more uncertaintly about health care costs. No uncertainty for me now... my costs definitely will continue to rise.
Deficit spending... deficit spending has gone like this...
last 4 years that Bush was in office: (in trillions) .318, .248, .160, .458
since Obama has been in office: 1.412, 1.293, 1.299, estimate for 2012 1.326
(these figures are from the Budget Historical Tables, US Gov web site)
And the debt...
last 4 years that Bush was in office:
7,354,657
7,905,300
8,451,350
9,986,820
Since Obama has been in office:
11,875,851
13,528,807
14,764,222
16,350,885 (estimate for 2012)
(Also from the US gov web site)
Entitlements?
I didn't bring up the figures. Do you consider that they are sustainable on the current course?
So... I'm not looking at pertinent issues and trying to make an intelligent, well informed choice? I beg to differ.
So you have the ability to look up data. Maybe you have math skills too. If so, can you explain to us how the math in Romney's plans add up to a balanced budget and reduced debt? Romey and Ryan can't explain it and every nonpartisan expert who's looked at it says it cannot work. Please, explain it all to us.
Oh, and why is it you omit the first four years Bush was in office? And let's not forget that those smaller deficits don't include two "off the books" wars Bush got us into. Probably don't include Medicare Part D, either, right?
And about the health care bill. It was very bipartisan - in fact it is based on more GOP ideas than Democratic ideas. The GOP were also asked for their input and submitted a list of 73 amendments/changes. The Democrats accepted them all. This is from an intern who was in the room during the negotiations. So don't act like it was rammed down our throats; it wasn't.
Being 54, I guess you're not concerned any longer about having the right to make certain health care choices for yourself. But do you have daughters, nieces? Do you want a bunch of old white men in Washintong telling them what they must or cannot do with contraception or an unintended pregnancy? And you're okay with them earning only 77 cents for every dollar a male co-worker gets for the same work?
You sound intelligent - just not all that well-informed.
Riiight take a real look at what's driving the Debt.
http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/whats-really-driving-national-debt--0
As Kathy and Jim note, simply letting the Bush tax cuts expire on schedule (or paying for any portions that policymakers decide to extend) would stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio for the next decade. While we'd have to do much more to keep the debt stable over the longer run, that would be a huge accomplishment.
2000 Surplus.......Republicans........Debt Borrow Debt Borrow.....Pass the mess.
Vote Obama/Biden 2012! End the Wars and End the Tax Cuts to the wealthy.
Vote Straight Democrat! Protect Women's and Worker's Rights!
Get to the Polls on Nov. 6th!!! and Vote!
Lisafp: Our economy collapsed while Bush was in office. It makes sense that the deficit wouldn't be fixed immediately and continue to grow... common sense tells me that Obama did the best he could given the circumstances with all the DC gridlock going against him.
Things are not perfect, but why not stay the course for the next four years. Unless you believe in all the other aspects to a Romney win; like a Republican SCOTUS?
I seriously believe Mitt Romney has mental issues and I think with him winning, matters would be faar worse, dire straights.
Lisafp: I hear you. So I'll take you at your word. As far as deficit/debt is concerned, we need to remember that the Afghanistan and Iraq wars were completely off-budget in the GW Bush years. That means they weren't counted in the official federal deficit numbers, even though we really did borrow and spend the money. It just didn't show up in the official deficit/debt numbers. When Obama came in he vowed to put them on the official budget and he did. I don't know the cost of both of those wars through 2009 but I think it was about 4 trillion. So the real deficit (and buildup of debt) during the Bush years was really about 4 trillion or so bigger than is stated.
Much of the Obama deficit comes from the bad economy-- tax revenues down, some mandatory relief expenditures up (food stamps, unemployment extensions, etc). But about 2/3 comes from revenue the federal government gave up when the Bush tax cuts were passed and extended. For technical reasons the original law required them to end in the tenth year, so rates were supposed to revert to the previous schedule. Federal revenue and budget projections were required to include that revenue for the tenth and following years. Instead the cuts were extended. So that's the biggest chunk of these deficits and the growing debt.
Finally, ACA cost containment. You should talk to somebody on the provider side if you don't think it's real. What the bill does is scale back reimbursement rates over several years, make providers financially responsible for outcomes, and set up information and best-practices clearing-houses so providers can reduce their costs. It also caps insurance company overhead at 20% (vs the 30% and more you've been paying for up to now). And I think it empowers the feds to negotiate prices for federal programs like Medicare with the drug suppliers, rather than require them to pay whatever's asked, as now. So it really does tackle at least some of the cost problems.
Entitlements: SS is a rolling-payments system that's actuarially sound for covering 75% of currently mandated payouts down the road (ie what comes in will cover that 75%). Small changes now will cover the other 25%, things like raising the cap on FICA-taxable income. The elephant with SS is the trillion or so in excess contributions since 1984, which is my working life and probably yours too-- it was supposed to be stockpiled and used to cover the boomer retirement period when outlays will exceed program income. Instead it was accounted against the deficit. It needs to be redeemed out of general revenue, and nobody is talking about that. Instead we're told we have to reduce benefits, and I've always thought that misdirection was about not paying off these SS bonds but defaulting on them, not technically but de facto. Medicare and Medicaid are all about the cost of medical care and bringing its growth down, which the ACA addresses.
Your issues are real. But I have to say that Obama hasn't done a good job of explaining how it all fits together. Clinton did it much better than Obama has and you should get his convention speech on youtube. The bottom line here is that the Republicans and Romney have been obfuscating so well-meaning people like you will be concerned enough about the (mis-stated) debt picture that you won't look at the reality of what he proposes to do, as opposed to the vague goals he mentions.
As far as debt and deficit go, and entitlements, and medical care costs, Romney would be disastrous. He doesn't propose an actually balanced budget until something like 2030, iirc. But just about health insurance-- think back to the period 2000-2008. What was happening to your insurance costs then? And ask yourself if you want to go back there. Which is really what it's about, imho.
And with all that ability you ascribe to yourself, did you flunk data comprehension? Did you ever take a class in critical thinking? I'm thinking not.
Translation: I am smart enough to figure out the data changes under each president, but not smart enough to figure out the why of these data points
You realize, don't you that the Republicans in Congress fabricated one fake economic "crisis" (the debt/deficit) and created one real one (refusing to raise the debt ceiling)?
That the ARRA, passed in 2009 is often incorrectly referred to as a "stimulus" when, in reality, it was a life preserver tossed to a drowning economy?
That further injections of Federal funds were prevented on a almost completely partisan basis? NO Republicans voted for further spending to help take up the economic slack. Republicans have prevented any votes on President AJA (American Jobs Act) because it would raise taxes on the extremely wealthy?
I do find it interesting that you can find all that data, yet are unable to find anything that explains that very data except in ways that, um, suggest everything's all President Obama's fault...
I worry that all the Republican voter fraud is still in the works, and Romney/Ryan have been told to go to Pennsylvania so that when they "win" the state, they can say it was their visit that pushed them over the top, not vote-counting manipulations. Jus' sayin".
You have a good point. It was proven that the republicans have been stealing elections.
http://www.ukprogressive.co.uk/breaking-retired-nsa-analyst-proves-gop-is-stealing-elections/article20598.html
http://www.themoneyparty.org/main/2012/10/rigged-elections-for-romney/
Check out this video clip:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEzY2tnwExs&list=FLx511JgACwfZ_D0rdWM_TLg&feature=mh_lolz
richsmit, I thought the same. We won't know until it's too late, after the election how successful their schemes were.
This election is way too close to call and no one should take anything for granted. Maybe Romney figures that his son's voting machines in Ohio will take care of that state and now he's angling for Pennsylvania. If the election isn't stolen it will be a miracle.
I'm a poll watcher in PA on Tuesday. As you probably know, the state/GOP etc. are still sending out literature saying you need a photo ID to vote, which is of course not true. The only time ID is required is if it's your first time at that polling place. Even then, you really need proof of address, so a utility bill, etc. suffice.
They have warned us to be ready for the GOP poll workers trying to tell people they can't vote without picture ID. If somehow that happens to you, tell your friendly Democratic poll watcher! We will call the constable on duty (no joke) and see to it that you vote, and not some BS provisional ballot, but a REAL ballot. Do not under any circumstances leave the polling place without voting! Please make sure every PA voter you know is prepared for this.
And screw R/R. They're not getting this state.
All this is is "McCain 2.0" Their internal polling is showing no route to 270 so they are trying anything to make the press think they are expanding the map in the face of a week of nothing but pro-Obama press coverage due to Sandy, a decent jobs report and the only coverage of Romney has been about his lying ads saying Jeep is moving production to China.... really turning off mid-west voters. I see a train wreck for Romney Tuesday night and well deserved!
Live in PA and I truly cannot believe anyone here would vote for Romney. However, the died in the wool pro lifers are livid to think that Obama may win (hopefuly he will). I'll be out on Saturday for "get out the vote". Also with all the senior citizens here in PA, you'd think they'd see the Repub writing on the wall!
PA is always delicious, shiny apple the GOP can't help reaching for ...
I wonder how much of this move into Pennyslvania, Minnesota and Michigan has to do with just having too much money to burn and all of the ad spots in the swing states being taken. I just cannot believe that any of these states would go for Romney this year. There is a downside to having all those millions of dollars- you look desperate at the end as you try to find a way to spend it all. After all, donors would be quite upset if you did not try to use it. That is my 2-cents.
How they dare show their faces in MI is beyond me, but then the sheep that will vote for R/R here is even more mind boggling. What in the world are you thinking fellow, Michiganians??? Or better yet, ARE YOU THINKING??? Just that lie about Jeep he keeps touting is more than enough to sour the wine for me. Heard a chant for R today and it was 4 more days-yep, then with a bet of grace, we won't have to hear from you again.
No play here Mitt! We know this!
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/26/1150732/-Breaking-Delphi-Auto-a-Romney-investment-buys-factories-in-China-after-firing-25K-US-workers
The reason that Romney is going to PA, is because he already knows that he lost Ohio and is looking for other venues.