In light of the new jobs numbers, we're likely to hear three political arguments today. Some will point to the 171,000 jobs created in October and the strongest private-sector job growth since February. Others will point to the slight increase in the unemployment rate. And a third group will say there's an elaborate conspiracy, involving President Obama, the BLS, the media, the Freemasons, Bigfoot, and quite possibly, the Illuminati.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) trumpeted the second argument, insisting the news is discouraging -- if the unemployment rate goes up, the talking point goes, it's necessarily bad. And as a technical matter, it's accurate to say the unemployment rate went from 7.8% to 7.9%.
But the talking point is based on either ignorance or a desire to mislead. The unemployment rate went up slightly because of good news -- more Americans got back in the game, re-entering the labor market as the job landscape improves. For Republicans to characterize this as discouraging is ridiculous.
By objective matters, today's report is a fairly strong one. Job growth improved, revisions for the two previous months were up significantly, the labor force grew, and the overall jobless rate is obviously steadily declining. What's more, as Rachel noted on the show last night, this comes against a backdrop of other encouraging economic news.
I suspect Romney/Ryan and its allies will spend the day shouting, "The unemployment rate went up 0.1%!" but this will be almost as silly as the conspiracy theorists' nonsense.
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It is understandable that during a major event like hurricane Sandy that a State has to get its infrastructure back up and running in order to get things close back to normal. But one thing FEMA will need to work on is that all areas that need assistance and help do get it such as with Staten Island which seemed to be have been forgotten about. They could have at least sent out part of the National Guard there with food, water, and blankets, clothes, etc to that area. And it would of made the people feel better right away that at least someone was there to help and that they were not left alone to fend for themselves. Giving people some sort of assurance right away is always critical when they can visibly see that help is there and things will be OK. If we do not fix this Global Warming, things are going to get much worse until a breaking point is reached and than we will have a total disaster. As a species of this planet and if we want to survive in any form of a civilization, we had better get our butts moving to change the affects of Global Warming. You keep seeing Republicans to the likes of Romney and Ryan and all they do is talk about how they want to privatize everything for the wealthy, but lack the very brain to figure out that money is not what all matters. If Romney, big oil, coal, and the Republicans get their way, you will see such a failure of our government again to be doing the right things that really do help people. The perfect example was the worry about giving relief funds to people and these people than buying massages and Gucci bags with it. If this is how the rich people think, they have got to be the dumbest things on this planet. What did these Republicans and rich people miss out on one of their daily massages or opportunities to buy a Gucci bag? These Republicans and rich people cannot even think of what normal every day activities are for people.
The figures for unemployment only serve the talking heads and TV spin. It's too late in the game to debate the numbers. In reality, people are looking around their own environments for signs of inprovement .
"...but this will be almost as silly as the conspiracy theorists' nonsense."
It may well be "silly" but the sheeple believe it. Waiting, in 5..4..3..2..1... bwaaaaaaaa, bwaaaaaaaa! That's the FAUX NOOZ crowd I hear bawling...
We have a pool going about which of our resident trolls is going to be first. You want in? My money is on Shooter.
171,000 new jobs, very good.
367,250 new unemployment claims, very bad.
Net job loss, -196,250, typical Obama reality.
http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-11-01/economy/34846130_1_forecast-claims-unemployment-benefits-requests-for-jobless-benefits
Damn, you're good.
Damn, he's good... or Shooter, looking to make a fast buck. Bloody opportunists, willing to do or say anything for money (e.g. O'Reiley, Palin, Romney, Coulter, Graham, Robertson, Roberts, Ralph Reed... poop, why go on. You all know the roster.)
Nope I'm me. As evidence I present...well pretty much anything I have posted on this blog and anywhere else for that matter.
I can't believe I up voted that Dragoon21b. Egotistical jerk. Fortunately I knew better than to take that bet.
Sorry Blankman, but the 171,000 is the net.
In any given period many people will both gain and lose jobs, the new unemployment claims number only measures those who lost a job. For instance, if 15,000 people were to lose their jobs for one reason or another and 20,000 people were hired you would have 15,000 new unemployment claims even though the number of people out of work has gone down.
What about numbers don't the Repubs understand? It's only good news when it benefits them, forget the citizens. Why that party still exists is a testimony to ignorance.
Zora is right Steve. It might be a silly argument, but it is one that win the day because the Republicans will shout it to the moon and nobody except you will push back.
If they have any education at all, most journalists have degrees in theater or maybe journalism. For goodness sake you can't expect them to understand basic employment data can you?
That, and the simple fact that John Cornyn-hole forgot to mention that he and his party are why the numbers still look as bad as they do!
I despise republicans, can't we get chemotherapy or something?!
I don't despise Republicans, but real ones are creatures that haven't been seen in years. You have a better chance of catching a Tasmanian tiger.
This current crop of lunatic cultists needs to be taken in for deprogramming
"...understand basic employment data..."
You mean like the fact that things are improving?
Republicans can't have that.
Now, back to the Benghazi meme.............
That one isn't going away. Now it's coming out that the consulate knew Al Qaeda was massing, their security was spying for Al Qaeda and that an attack was coming. And Washington decided to let them die and blamed it on some guy in California.
It's despicabe.
I can not understand celebrating the fact that the unemployment rate went up. When will it be adjusted? Which wasy will it be adjusted?
Pasco, the unemployment rate involves how many people are "in the work force". When people are discouraged or retire, they leave the workforce, leaving a smaller number of people for the same number of jobs. That makes it look like fewer people are unemployed.
If people are more confident about the economy they return to the work force. That makes it look like more people are unemployed, even though the odds of getting a job are better.
It's counter-intuitive and wonkish, but a valid idea. On the other hand, if the work force were the same size as in 2009, unemployment would be over 11%. When reading blogs and commentary, one always, always, always, needs to do homework on the fine print. Political lying is a well developed art.
Well, let us see:
Nipping over to the BLS statistics pages we find that the US workforce in January 2009 was 154,236,000 and as of October this year it was 155,641,000, meaning that if the workforce were the same size the unemployment rate would be slightly smaller.
Now let us consider what we would have with the same participation rate, for Jan09 we have 65.7% and Oct12 63.8%, a bit of math gives us an adjusted unemployment rate of 10.6%.
Thus, you are once again seriously wrong with the claim you made and even being charitable in interpreting it doesn't make you right.
Reminds me of being a Rams fan, rooting for losses to improve your draft position. Thats how Republicans roll, they don't care to root for fellow Americans, they root for future power.
I was a Rams fan, finally figured out (back in the day) that they only wanted to have a decent season to keep the seats filled. They didn't want to do well enough in order to have to pay the salaries that came with winning. Must've been Repugs. I became a Raiders' fan, lotta good that did me.
Once more, we turn to Teh Bard: "A tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."
Why, you may ask?
Because, I will answer: Most voters made up their "minds" long ago who they will vote for. And the few remaining 'undecideds' are so divorced from the day to day minutia of job numbers, that this information will not even be heard.
If they were paying any attention at all over the last week, they DID hear "General Powell/Governor Christie/Mayor Bloomberg."
I enjoyed the quote, and wanted to add one: "Who is he that wisheth so?"
Roseanne Barr for President!!!!!!!!!!!
If it was a choice between her or Romney - Barr in a hearbeat.
I certainly hope that each and every person commenting on the Maddow blog has voted! I've known some who talk a lot, but never get around to voting. Go vote!
Last month when the unemployment rate dropped, Repubs noted it was because people left the labor force. Now that it ticked up, they will suddenly forget that labor force participation impacts the rate because that factor no longer benefits their argument.
Just by way of interest I checked Fox (I need a shower now) and they are actually DEFENDING the Bush Economy!
"Think back to September, 2004. Broadcast coverage criticized Bush on the economy despite economic growth of 3.3 percent, an unemployment rate of just 5.4 percent and gas prices a low $1.82. Even the $7.4 trillion federal debt is but a fond memory now."
The piece goes on to opine about how the rest of the news media attacked Bush when he was doing such great things and that they are trying to paint him as a historic failure by comparing him to Herbert Hover.
There are lots of problems with this little bit of logical gibberish is first that they are making the argument that "Things were Great until they weren't but that wasn't his fault". It's like defending a drunk driver by insisting that the oak tree got in his way.
Second and I can't say I am surprised, is the worldwide conspiracy that evidently involves everyone who doesn't work for Fox is somehow trying to discredit him and by extension all republicans and their policy's. If you got a psychologist to look at this they would say the patient was clearly paranoid and delusional (so clearly they are in on the plot too)
And third that comparing Bush to Hoover is a horrible slander. The problem with that is that it is a slander, to Hoover! In many metrics the Bush crash was worse than Hoovers. Because so many banks and financial transactions are interconnected in ways that no one even thought of back in 1929 the effects were felt far wider and more quickly than any previous recession and have proven more persistent and pernicious.
The fact that anyone with a high school education believes this nonsense is a testament to the depth of the willful suspension of basic logic and simple common sense these people insist they alone have. The fake "Down on the farm, Patriotic everyman" culture that seeks to demonize education and defame intellectualism in favor of rewriting history with pseudoscience and sideshow sorcery isn't just idiotic and ridiculous its Dangerous
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/10/31/good-bush-economy-attacked-bad-obama-economy-ignored-by-media/#ixzz2B4cqsWHL
Why even bother to calculate an unemployment rate if it's so meaningless? It goes up for a good reason, it goes down for a bad reason. Why isn't it calculated more meaningfully? It's like having a bathroom scale that says you lost ten pounds, but it turns out it's only because the earth's gravitational pull was off that day. Who would even bother to weigh themselves if that were possible?
I expected to see the rate increase and really thought it would be higher with students returning to school and the outrageous high gas prices stiffing the economy. The high prices where the last ditch effort to lower employment. The job rates will soon rise as the Xmas rush comes to bare.
This is a statistical analysis of the drivers of the change in the unemployment rate.
sites.google.com/site/statisticalideas
statisticalideas.blogspot.com