Virginia's Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, a Republican, sent out this political note Saturday from the "Romney/Ryan rally bus." Key bit:
When I looked yesterday, so far there are over 357,000 absentee votes cast. That's barely over 70% of the 2008 total. That's bad for them.
Happily, it gets worse... for them.
Full note from Cuccinelli after the jump. Above, the line for in-person absentee voting yesterday in McClean, Virginia, sent by Dave Fullerton. ("There were young people, people on crutches, old people, all of whom stood in line for almost 2 hours in the cold to vote!") (How to send us stuff.)
From Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli:
Subject: Here's Why I'm Optimistic
Date: Nov 3, 2012 5:44 PM
Dear Friends and Fellow Virginians, I'm writing to you from the Romney/Ryan rally bus, in between rallies in Lexington and Christiansburg!
As many of you know, among other things, I am both a grassroots believer and something of a numbers geek. So, last night, after decent voter contact hours had passed, I started analyzing our absentee voter numbers - looking for clues as to the direction of Virginia.
We don't have no-excuse early voting in Virginia, but about 1/7 or 1/8 of the total vote can reasonably be expected to be cast via absentee voting.
So where do we stand so far and what does it mean?
-
Then
In 2008, over 506,000 absentee votes were cast. We lost absentees terribly - 64/36. Ouch. That was about a 150,000 vote margin. Super ouch.
Realize that Democrats achieved this kind of margin while beating us overall by only about 53/47. As is common, they did far better in absentee voting than their overall margin.
We lost Virginia by 235,000 votes in 2008, so the absentee margin was over half of Obama's total margin of victory in 2008.
So, how does this compare to 2012?
Now
When I looked yesterday, so far there are over 357,000 absentee votes cast. That's barely over 70% of the 2008 total. That's bad for them.
Happily, it gets worse... for them.
We don't register by party, so we need to use proxies to see what's happening.
So, let's look at it this way. We'll break down all 134 localities into four groups: 1) those that went for Bush in 2004 & McCain in 2008; 2) those that went for Bush in 2004 & Obama in 2008; 3) those that went for Kerry in 2004 & Obama in 2008; and 4) those that went for Kerry in 2004 & McCain in 2008 (there are only two of these, see below).
I ranked all 134 localities in Virginia from those that are producing the highest proportion of absentee votes compared to their 2008 performance (Buchanan County, 103%), to the lowest proportion (Portsmouth City, 34%).
So, to be clear, in Buchanan County in 2008 there were 672 absentee votes cast; and as of late this week, 694 had been cast - 13% of the 2008 numbers. In Portsmouth City in 2008 there were 7,513 absentee votes cast; and for this year so far? 2,536 - only 34% of their 2008 numbers.
Of the top 10 absentee voter turnout localities this year, 9 are Bush/McCain localities. 22 of the top 25 are Bush/McCain. 41 of the top 50 are Bush/McCain. And 71 of the top 100 are Bush/McCain. Yowza! Looking good!
Kerry/McCain?
There were two Kerry/McCain localities - the neighboring coal counties of Buchanan and Dickenson. At 103%, Buchanan has the highest proportion of absentee turnout relative to 2008, and Dickenson ranks 47th with 82% of its 2008 turnout - 12% above the state average.
These were yellow dog Democrat counties in Presidential elections for as far back as I remember, but Barack Obama managed to convince them - barely - to vote Republican in 2008. 4 years of experience will only strengthen the trend, and so they reasonably should be looked at like the Bush/McCain localities.
If you count them that way, then the rankings of how we're doing changes to show us doing relatively better since 2008 in all 10 of the top 10 absentee voting localities, 23 of the top 25, 43 of the top 50, and 73 of the top 100. That's a very strong showing in our favor.
So, what does this mean in raw votes?
If we simply take the 64/36 split from 2008 and apply it to this year's absentee votes, our math looks like this:
-
64% of 357,000 votes cast so far equals about 229,000 votes.
36% is approximately 128,000 votes.
That's a 101,000 vote margin in their favor; however,
That's almost 50,000 less votes than their 2008 margin among absentees.
So, even if the Democrats keep the same percentage of votes among absentees, the turnout change alone has already cut more than 1/5 of the total vote gap from 2008.
But the changes from 2008 suggest we're going to move significantly away from their nearly 64/36 win of absentees.
The absentee turnout among Kerry 2004 localities this year is only 65% of the 2008 levels - and these are the strongest Dem localities! The absentee turnout among localities Obama won in 2008 is 68%.
On our side, the absentee turnout among Bush 2004 localities is 75%. And the absentee turnout among McCain localities is 76% - these are our strongest localities.
This means that the 64/36 margin among absentee voters from 2008 is going to get much closer. Let's say it's 55/45 their way this year instead of 64/36 - a reasonable estimation at this point - then the math looks like this:
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55% of 357,000 votes cast so far equals 188,000 votes.
45% is approximately 169,000 votes.
That's a mere 19,000 vote margin - 130,000 fewer than in 2008 among absentees!
So, just with our current effort, we have already closed half of the gap from 2008!
Great job to all of you that have put in your time, money and effort to make this happen!
I hope this is as encouraging to you as it is to me! Now, if we just finish this race out with the same level of effort that we've had for months, we will win Virginia, BUT, note the caveat ... "with the same level of effort..."
Let's finish strong so Virginia can lead America's turnaround by electing Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, and returning George Allen to the U.S. Senate!
I will see you on the campaign trail!
Sincerely,
Ken Cuccinelli, II
Attorney General of Virginia
Leave a Comment:
COOOOOOCH!!!
This skunk would lie to his own mother!
Not that I didn't.
But not on anything crucial to the free world.
"No, Mom, I've never smoked pot!" ain't exactly like the World Class lies Cooch and the VA Gov, tell.
His poll is as unskewed as the fat little toad's unskewed polls that show R&R getting 359 electoral votes.
Talk about an elected official who defines the old Texanism: "He needed killin'!"
cooch aleady showed us democracy when he called a 2nd vote, hired people onto the board of health to sway it his way. what a clown he is..speaking of democracy...he fixed a vote right in the face of all of us women...he is no better than romney....hey cooh all us girls will be at every poll doing the cooch dance in bright orange t's never mistake the power of us virginia....you will not ever hold an office in virginia..and when the justice dept catches up to you for the illegal way you hired board members and called 2nd vote because it did not turn out in your favor....believe me our vote will keep you out...now hire someone to keep us from voting big boy...i hope your mom and sisters spank you good.
I did not early vote because I will not be intimidated by republican backed harassment. Maybe there are a few more like me....sick to death of voter intimidation. Stick it in your ear Govenor.
I did not early vote because I will not be intimidated by republican backed harassment
LOL That makes sense.
I did early vote in my county, as I will be on vacation, and I have to say that I waited over an hour. It was shocking to me because my county in my state is not in these hot areas. Although my state is not a hot bed area the vote is still being suppressed. Not only did I feel sorry for all of the early voters but I felt sorry for the TWO lonely OLDER gentlemen who, while doing the paperwork and computer work, were on their cell phones trying to get help! The early voting was in a SUPER small lobby that should have only held approximately 45 people was stuffed with over 100 people with more outside. It was unbelievable and I could only imagine if we were in say Ohio or Florida. But...I would have waited 9 hours to get my vote in and I applaud all those who were waiting, and waiting........and waiting! Shame on Governor Scott and any other politician who cannot play fair to allow the citizens of Florida to vote in a more timely manner!
This sounds an awful lot like Malfeasance. Can't he be impeached for this?
He's white. He has more money than God. There's an R after his name.
More importantly, there's a veto-proof Republican majority in both Houses in Florida.
I'm serious he is essentially bragging that he has disenfranchised people and commited voter intimidation.
Can someone please explain to me what is wrong with this letter? How is this an indication of any attempt to intimidate voters? What in here is a lie?
just saying...
This is a states Attorney General saying he is keeping people from voting. That isn't a Lie It's a CRIME!
I am sorry that I have to ask this, but where in the letter does it say anything about him keeping people from voting? Where is there any proof of intimidation?
What in the letter is a crime?
just saying...
Stormy, they don't like the facts. They like to make up their own. So, since they didn't make this up it is wrong.
Do'nt try to argue with Stormy, he's just one of those people who would like to turn Air Force I into a corporate jet.
Nobody is arguing, I am simply asking questions. Can you not answer them without making false accusations?
just saying...
Further down is Rich M Jones response which should answer your question, but in addition, I wonder "so just with our current effort we have already closed half the gap from 2008. Great job to all of you that have put time, money, and effort to make this happen."
What was their "time, money, and effort to make this happen" put into? It implies that some people did something directly to reduce the number of absentee ballots cast in this election, so that the outcome is different this time, doesn't it?
How can he sign officially a partisan letter as Attorney General of the State of Virginia? How can people not wonder if he has conflicts of interests in upholding the laws if he shows such favoritism while using his title? which ought to be illegal if it isn't.
Judy...thank you for referring me to Rich;s comments. I want to do some additional research into what he had to say before I respond further regarding his opinion. But please let me ask a few questions...
1) Were government funds utilized by the AG to gather this information exclusively for his political use or is this information that is already gathered by the government and is available to any citizen who wishes to inquire through some type of process such as Freedom of Information Act?
2) Who was the letter sent to?
3) Did the AG use any type of governmental equipment to transmit the letter?
4) Is the AG prohibited by law from using his title on letters that go out from his personal work?
5) Is the AG prohibited from law by supporting a candidate as long as the AG is doing it on his personal time away from the office?
6) Did he sign the letter in an official capacity? Was it on State of VA letterhead?
Regarding the "time, money and effort" question you asked...is it not plausible that the AG was simply referring to the politicking that takes place in any election? Would it not be possible for members of the Obama camp to make the same statements in referring to how they have been able to reduce the Republican influence on any number of different topics? Possibly influencing a voters desire to go to the poll and cast a ballot?
your responses would be appreciated.
just saying...
judy king: "How can he sign officially a partisan letter as Attorney General of the State of Virginia?"
it's easy - he passes the grover norquist test. he has enough digits to hold a pen.
All of these Republicans are beginning to sound like Darth Vader, Suaron, Lord Voldemort and every other evil icon all rolled into one.
They stop at nothing, no deed is too dirty or underhanded for them to attempt on their way to power ! For that is all it is about. Power !! Unnnnlimited POWER - to quote Chancellor Palpatine from Star Wars.
I do not think I can take much more of this type of right wing craziness.
Yeah, but remember what happens to all those guys in the last 5 minutes of the movie.
TCinLA: Thank you so much. I feel way better.
They can be summed up as: PHENOMENAL COSMIC DOUCHBAGGEREY!!! ... itty bitty braincase.
It is sickening that Republicans have actually resorted to such blatant and aggressive attempts to intimidate and suppress the vote in our great nation. Apparently doing whatever it takes to keep as many voters away from the polls and unable to exercise their constitutional rights as the GOP can is now their core political strategy for winning elections. This is immoral, illegal, and it ought to face criminal punishment. More voter participation has been a bipartisan national goal for the entire history of America., Races were won and lost on merits, not trickery. Any Romney victory is illegitimate and must be overturned based solely on GOP voter suppression tactics. - progressive
That is just standard jim crow old south governing , he will not be impeached , he will be promoted
Interesting , iowa early voting has surpassed 2008 levels , so what changed in Va to bring the numbers down?
You know what we call him here in Virginia? Crazy Cooch. I wouldn't believe a word that is in his little "letter". Tell me HOW he managed to get the number of absentee votes in these precincts before they closed????
And WHERE in VA was Romney yesterday? If he was on Romney's bus in VA, then he wrote that little "letter" on Nov 1 WAY before absentee voting was ended.
http://www.politico.com/2012-election/calendar/?date=2012-11-01
You can see from this link that Romney wasn't in VA on Nov 3rd.
http://www.politico.com/2012-election/calendar/?date=2012-11-03
OMG! A Republican elected official lied!!
In other breaking news, tide continues to ebb and flow.
but they don't know why the "tide comes in, tide goes out."
fortunately dems know Neil deGrasse Tyson.
How can these offices in charge of managing our elections be so partisan? .... What they are doing in VA and OH (and PA) seems close to treason. They should be prosecuted.
Agree 100%!!
Charges that should be filed?
1) Misuse of Public Offices, to interfere with an election, use of Public finds and or use of public's good will.
2) Gaining knowledge of current election results, directly or indirectly obtaining result during the voting process lengthened by absentee ballot process.
3) Releasing non-public knowledge, to the public during the election process to improperly influence the ongoing voting process. Use of state resources to make assertions, including the possibility that certain knowledge was gained and then withheld for political gain such as influencing the election.
4) Violating all standards for the public trust, commensurate to the state office held.
5) Omitted items including the public having little or no recourse stop, suspend, or the process of appealing serious government grievances.
Q: How can you tell a Republican is lying?
A: Look and see if his lips are moving.
they don't even have to move their lips. they even lie inside their heads to themselves.
that's why they consider crap like this to be patriotic.
he is already guilty of rigging voting when he called a 2nd vote of the board of health because they did not vote his way...he actually hired people to vote his way and called a 2nd vote...that is criminal and he should never speak about democracy when he is a sneaky underhanded and not someone I want to ever vote for again...Between him and Bob McDonnell we have had a lot of legislation made....NDAA, Citizens United and many more policies which hurt freedom of speech in this country...These men need to go...
The Republican Party has bananized the political process. I think that we could benefit by inviting representatives from Venezuela, Bolivia, Argentina and Brazil to monitor this election. I have voted, but I do not trust the Republican politicians. The Florida and Ohio emerging stories along with this one show the profound disrespect Republicans have towards basic democratic principles. It is sickening.
Betcha after all this cheating, and the Pugs don't win, they'll want a recount. I wonder how much down-ballot damage they'll accomplish?
Something tells me we're going back to 2004 and this time it may well get bloody..
Yeah, enough is enough.
A bit of optimism here in VA: screw the Cooch, both Obama and Kaine will win!
And an apology: Cooch used to be my state senator, he should have been defeated the last time he ran and his career finished, but the Dems ran a terrible candidate. He won by 91 votes. He left to run for AG because he knew he couldn't win again, and alas the rest is horrible history.
Regardless of party affiliation, once you are elected to any state office you are expected to serve ALL the people of your state impartially, not just those in your own political party. To do less than that is an act that should get you removed from office. Do they have different laws in Virginia? I would think not, especially in a Federal election.
Two words - Virgil Goode
Unfortunately, in public life there is a thin line between incompetence and corruption. And experienced corrupted officials know how to play this game to avoid prosecution. You need to prove that a public official engaged in a willful act of corruption. And that could be a little tricky some times. Otherwise, Greenspan should have been prosecuted along with Henry Paulson, on the top of a very long list of people directly responsible for the evolving crisis.
With this pretend effort in Penn,, might be cover for the "fix" in Penn...
I truly can't stand these ATTORNEYS General who think they can BREAK THE LAW. No values, no core, no belief in the law of the land. We have one here who is running for Governor. We are hoping to defeat him...soundly.
http://www.poynter.org/latest-news/mediawire/194160/wisconsin-state-journal-endorses-romney-latest-paper-to-flip-from-obama-in-08/
I never thought I could hate fellow Americans as much as I've grown to hate these people.
You have quite correctly spent a great deal of time looking into the problems of voting this year. However you have not looked at the simple solutions that have proved to work. In Oregon the entire state votes by mail. We have had no problems at polling places, we have no polling places which means no questionable poll watchers or intimidation. Also no lines, no waiting, no sweat. Yes, you need to focus on the problems but how about exploring solutions?
Yes in Oregon had its voter issues too. A temp employee was caught filling in ballots that only maybe voted for president and marked the blank ones all republican. Got caught . These were mail in ballots. I want to know who was behind it and I want her in jail.
Yep. That is a serious offense. I will be looking for the story in the news. That is a federal offense and will no doubt be prosecuted to the fullest, if true. Somehow, though, I suspect you are passing along a story that has no truth behind it. If it is true, please post the city and name of the offender.
Rusty: The article was posted on Newsvine by o'Stephanie under the title "Department of Justice Investigating alleged ballot fraud in Clackamas County Election"
In the article the State DOJ admitted they do have an on-going investigation. You can read the article for yourself.
thanks for the link. I'll be expecting to see kupdates from the DOJ and also a prison sentence. There's no room for that.
I agree. Apparently the punishment is fairly heavy. I would guess if the investigation proves fraud, there will be more than one conviction.
The questions are how many ballots did she change? Since there were supposed to be other people watching the process, how could she do it? Since they are not supposed to have any writing implements, why didn't anyone notice her doing it?
It does point out to the rest of us that when you vote, don't leave blank spaces on your ballot. When I voted there was one person that I didn't want to vote for, but he was unchallenged. I wrote in my boss's name, so no one could vote for him on my ballot.
We have to be very, very careful.
With so much evidence of partisan politics impacting the voting in America period, would it not benefit everyone involved if each state had a designated non-partisan group that was in charge of redistricting after a census and running the elections? Would that not make things less complicated? Just saying. If we are supposed to be the example to hold up to the other fledgling democracies around the world, we are doing a poor job of it.
The Mittens love of country is phony; believable would be more like "love of money." The right wing soundbites have worked in the past but I believe the "sleeper has awoken" (we the people).