The Pew Research Center's national polls tend to generate more attention than most because their recent track record is quite good. Pew's final 2008 poll, for example, showed Barack Obama leading by 6 points nationwide, and he won by 7 points. Pew's final 2004 polled George W. Bush leading by 3, and he won by 2.5.
With that in mind, it's worth noting that Pew's final 2012 poll shows the president ahead by three, 48% to 45%. I made chart showing to highlight the larger trend.
You'll notice, of course, that immediately after Obama's first debate with Mitt Romney, the Democrat's standing saw a sharp decline, to the point that the Republican inched ahead a month ago. In the ensuing weeks, however, the president's support recovered (though it remains short of where it was in September).
There was, however, one other detail that stood out for me: among likely voters 39% support Obama "strongly," as compared to 33% who say the same about his challenger. Why is that significant? Because in the post-Watergate era, the only other candidates to have 39% "strong" support going into Election Day were Reagan in 1984 and Bush in 2004.
Both of them won.
One other thing: when Pew showed Obama's support collapsing after the Denver debate, the gender gap vanished and the president was tied with Romney among women. Now, however, the gap has returned, and Obama leads Romney among women by 13 points (53% to 40%), while men prefer Romney by 8 points (50% to 42%).
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For the sake of a positive and progressive future of this country, I hope PEW is correct.
How can men support Romney with his record of closing factories and shipping jobs to China? How can men or women for that matter support a man who say's he will turn medicare into a voucher system,and possiblly turn Social Security over to Wall St. And how can the elderly trust him? He say's that his plan for medicare will not affect people at or near retirement age. He is a liar! If Obamacare is repealed seniors who reach the doughnut hole of the prescription drug plan will be paying double for their brand name drugs. Obamacare has already saved seniors 4.5 billion dollars on those costs.Will they appreciate picking up those extra costs? I do'nt think so.
What a shallow country we are, if things can change so much over nothing...
PS Kevin Drum makes a good point:
The percentage of people IDing as Republicans is way, way down. So loads of people who call themselves "independent" now are actually Republicans. And this is why polls seem "skewed" to True Believers -- there aren't enough self-IDed Rs in the sample.
Just so people have a clear definition of what a bureaucrat is here is what the definition is -
1. an official of a bureaucracy.
2. an official who works by fixed routine without exercising intelligent judgment.
And here another definition of a Dictator -
1. (Government, Politics & Diplomacy) a. a ruler who is not effectively restricted by a constitution, laws, recognized opposition, etc. b. an absolute, esp tyrannical, ruler
2. (Historical Terms) (Government, Politics & Diplomacy) (in ancient Rome) a person appointed during a crisis to exercise supreme authority.
3. a person who makes pronouncements, as on conduct, fashion, etc., which are regarded as authoritative
4. a person who behaves in an authoritarian or tyrannical manner.
Now here has been what these Republicans, extremists of hatred (including the religious ones), and extreme wealthy have really been. You look at Romney, Ryan, Bishop Daniel Jenky, Akin, Murdock, and many others that are exactly what these people have been doing and being Bureaucrats and Dictators. But the very principles they follow are absolutely nothing to do with how you make better conditions for people to live in or care to say what people really need in order to live their every day lives. These men and women who follow these falsehoods, lies, and deceptions that really do place excess burdens on people are no more than like trained seals to follow some set dark agenda. There is no single aspect of humanity in these people, except that they are obsessed with power, control, and greed over people. These people act like they are the Kings and Queens of the world and they must dictate their dark policies to the Peasants and Peasants who shouldn’t complain about the few scraps that are thrown to them to live off of. After all to these Kings and Queens, these few scraps are plenty enough for ungrateful Peasants who only complain un-necessarily because they have to toil in the heat of the sun as they live in abuse, misery, despair, and death. History teaches us well why we want to avoid these people, but have all people learned this lesson apparently not. This is the very reason why America was established to get rid of these people out of our lives, but we must always be diligent and watchful because they are always there.
I suspect the election results will be fairly close to the pre-Denver numbers. What I don't buy is that a significant number of voters (particularly women) abandoned Obama because he had a sleepy debate performance. And yet that is the media narrative. Could it possibly be that when people get disgusted by it all, they are less likely to respond to pollsters, but not less likely to vote, and certainly not more likely to change their minds about who they vote for?
I am still trying to figure out why Romney would get a "bump" in the polls with women after the first debate. I am an "Independent who is likely to vote" (as opposed to "undecided" because I made my choice a long time ago, and I voted 2 weeks ago) and if anyone polled ME, I would have emphatically come down on the side of President Obama. While I wish wish wish the president had "shown up," I really emphasized with him. I could tell he was holding back as much revulsion as I felt for the lying, bigoted, pushy jerk that Romney showed himself to be. I found Romney's behavior distasteful and unworthy. I can't imagine why any woman would throw away her rights to align herself with that man.
What really is going on with the Gallup's presidential poll? Gallup suspended its daily poll on 10/28/12 blaming the weather, power outages, etc. On that date, Gallup had Romney +5. Gallup still has not resumed its daily polling. When I check poll averages on Real Clear Politics, it appears that Gallup's +5 for Romney is still being factored into polling averages for the presidential race. An updated poll likely would skew much lower for Romney. Who controls Gallup and could Republican pressure have something to do with Gallup's polling suspension?
The hours after this election is over will be telling.
If Romney wins, I expect Obama to concede with grace and calmness, leaving the sane parts of America to wail their private misery in sack cloth and ashes.
Should Obama be reelected, I do not expect Romney to concede with any maturity or level-headedness nor do I expect him to ask his followers to work together as one nation under our President. I do expect regressive antics from the anti-Obama legions who'll make it their mission to show the rest of us their displeasure if Obama wins.
The on-purpose polarization of this nation is at a full head of steam. Division of this depth won't stop when the voting booths close tomorrow night. Doing the correct thing always has consequences. I hope this wonderful nation survives tomorrow, whoever wins.
while men prefer Romney by 8 points (50% to 42%).
Proving what many of us learned in elementary school - that many of our fellow boys were idiots.
It's hard to tell where the actual data points are on that chart, but it looks to me like Obama had a significant decline from the middle of September, not after the first debate, and that it turned around about at the point of the VP debate.
This would fit with the theory that the decline was as much about the fading effects of the convention bounce and Romney's 47% tape, and not a sudden effect from the debate (which would also speak better of our undecided voters.)
I think Obama executed the perfect Rope-a-Dope in Denver. He was ahead by a big lead and all the action was further down-ticket. Denver changed all that and diverted more money back to the presidential campaign. So now we see the senate clearly leaning Democratic again, and a lot of house seats are going Democratic too. Well played, Mr. President. Well played!
I've thought that myself, but the sheer cohones you'd need to pull that trick...
It's terrifying. Like betting America on the outcome of a chess game.
Some opinion shows on FOX are predicting that Romney will win due to the Bradley Effect. Does any of you out there understand what the Bradley effect is? Is Obama doomed by the Bradley effect in this election?
“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first
and then seek to win.”
WELL DONE OBAMA!!!