For the last several weeks, there's been a noticeable gap between state and national polls. The former, in general, have favored President Obama, and the latter, in general, have shown Mitt Romney in a better position.
But as the campaign ends, we're finally seeing some convergence. For the last couple of weeks, there's been a Washington Post/ABC News daily tracking poll, which is generally considered one of the better tracking polls, and its final results show the president ending on a high note.
Maddow Blog chart based on Post/ABC data
Obama's 50%-47% advantage is quite modest, but it's the president's largest lead over Romney in a Post/ABC poll since July. As ABC's analysis noted, "The trend in these closing days, in Obama's direction, has been slight but consistent."
Also of interest, this poll found that Obama's supporters "are more strongly enthusiastic than Romney's by an 8-point margin."
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inTrade has Obama at 70%.
-Putting their "money where their mouth is"!
...and look, Romney's around that 47% mark. LOL.
This can't be true, because the beltway geniuses have been telling me about the large enthusiasm gap in the Rebublicans favor.
What's worse, we'll probably hear that same myth tonight.
I've been watching the majors this morning - from what they are saying, you'd believe that Romney has already won! Just totally SICKENING!!!
I was talking to my son who lives in VA and the only "Enthusiasm Gap" I had to over come with him was that Call of Duty Black Ops 2 came out today...getting a college student away from that is like trying to take a bottle from a drunk. Still he is going to vote and taking the guys he games with with him.
FIRED UP
oncearepublican (may I call you "once?"): they're in heavy denial, and their whole grieving process is going to be rocky for us all:
You can call me "once"! Lot easier to type!
I have to say, I think you are right!!
@ Dragoon: Call of Duty Black Ops II doesn't come out until the 13th, not today. just saying lol
Calvin
Yeah I was told I was wrong...it was the midnight pre-release that he was talking about. I get lost sometimes when I have to translate from "1337"
Might it have been 'Halo IV'?
I'm sure it probably was, but what do I know my gaming knowledge extends as far as WoW
And for those who don't have 538 in their RSS feeds, Nate Silver now has Obama/Romney at 92%/8%
Also fun as we watch results today:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html?hp
Best of all, Post/ABC have Romney at, yes, 47%. Who'd have guessed.
Karma apparently has a sense of humor!
Well, yes -- but Karma is also such a bitch. Especially on the "comes around" part.
With apologies to Seamus, may he rest in peace...
Obama's karma ran over Mitt's dogma...
And WHY are the "national" polls now converging with the state polls? Pretty simple: Rasmussen and Gallup are doing their usual thing. For months, both were predicting a comfortable Romney victory. And now at the end, as in past elections, they conveniently align their polling with reality.
Then, after the elections, hoping nobody will recall their Republican-skewed predictions all during the campaign, they can again say: "See? We ended up accurate. So, listen to us next campaign, when -- SURPRISE! -- we will again show Republicans winning."
This has happened with Rasmussen for about 10 years, and somewhat less for Gallup.
It will be pretty hard for Gallup to improvise around the two month "outlier" stain on the body fabric of the 2012 election polling .
Unless they use an extra layer of undergarment .
Anybody need a slightly used set of magic Mormon underwear?... ;)>
The best poll is a pole, firmly inserted into Mitt to ride him off into the sunset.
The question is whether he'll do the stock villain thing and come back for a replay in 2016.
Question for the board: would that be a good thing or a bad thing?
Good for Hillary. Bad for Mitt since even his lame Veep pick would be calling him a lying scum.
mitt is NOT coming back.
how much rejection can he take?
Speaking of Secretary Clinton, anyone think Big Dog's activities over the last few weeks have much to do with love of Obama? Or love of country?
Yes, he's a Democrat, and yes, he is an American.
But, blood is thicker than water.
Put me down for a Clinton/? bumper sticker!
I believe Paul Ryan's private nickname for Mitt Romney, at least at one point, was ... "Stench"...
Mitt has shown a great resiliency in rejecting facts , history , common sense , his own positions , etc etc . Steve Benen has been mentioned in more than a few columns for his "Mitts Mendacity" reflections .
The only difficulty is if Mitt during his next political effort runs into him denying it , which for Mitt is no biggy of a deal . The cunning and ease with which the Mitt has polished his denial of the obvious makes Paul Ryan an acolyte .
no...
Suddenly, the end of the movie, El Cid, comes to mind...
Just got back from voting... No wait at all, but it's a polling place for a small town, mostly Republican...
Mitt cannot come back, 'cause ANN said they'd be done with politics...dear, sweet Ann, be true to your word.
Just voted with my son, who was voting for the first time. Obama/Biden 2012...now for the long wait for the (hopefully) good news. Get out and vote, everyone!
The final Politico/GWU/Battleground national poll released this morning is calling a tie http://www.pollheadlines.com/poll-category.php?category=obama-vs-romney
How about some mention of the ballot initiatives across the country?????