Associated Press
With the election having come and gone, the political world's attention now shifts to the next major national development: avoiding the looming "fiscal cliff." The White House and Congress fully intend to strike some kind of compromise, but they're very far apart and have limited time to craft a deal.
For Democrats, finding agreement on a debt-reduction agreement isn't that difficult. After all, if President Obama has a clear mandate on any issue, it's modest tax increases on the wealthy -- he campaigned on the issue, making it one of his signature policies. Republicans tried to use it against him, but they failed, and polls show most Americans support the idea.
So what's the problem? The Republican position has not changed: no tax increases on anyone, at any time, by any amount, for any reason. I found the New York Times' reporting on this to be a little misleading.
The House speaker, John A. Boehner of Ohio, striking a conciliatory tone a day after the Republican Party's electoral drubbing, said on Wednesday that he was ready to accept a budget deal that raises federal revenue as long as it is linked to an overhaul of entitlements and a reform of the tax code that closes loopholes, curtails or eliminates deductions and lowers income tax rates. [...]
The offer may be enough to bring the parties to the table in the wake of an election that kept President Obama in power, strengthened the Democrats' grip on the Senate and chipped away at the still-large Republican majority in the House.
This wasn't Boehner being conciliatory; this was largely the opposite. Remember in "Godfather II," when Michael says, "My offer is this: nothing"? That's pretty much what the House Speaker was saying yesterday.
Indeed, what's striking is how little movement there's been from Boehner, despite Obama's re-election, despite the looming deadline, and despite Wall Street's reaction yesterday to the possibility that there would be no agreement.
In Boehner's idea of a "deal," Republicans would agree to close some unnamed tax loopholes and end some unnamed deductions, but only if Democrats give them entitlement cuts and more tax breaks through tax "reform."
Boehner realizes that Romney lost, right?
Kevin Drum makes a persuasive case that the Speaker's opening bid won't last.
[It's] bluster and Boehner knows it. On January 1st, the Bush tax cuts expire. They're gone. At that point, Boehner & Co. can agree to a deal that lowers taxes for everyone on all income under $250,000, or they can hold out for a deal that lowers taxes for everyone and lowers taxes on income over $250,000 back to Bush-era levels. However, if they refuse to make a deal, then no one gets a tax cut, and they'll be crucified by public opinion for protecting the rich.
I suspect that's probably right -- Obama has the better hand and he knows it -- and Boehner's remarks yesterday were just posturing. The fact that the president campaigned on higher taxes for the wealthy, and the public broadly supports higher taxes on the wealthy, matters in the equation. Matt Yglesias noted it's possible "the president is playing poker with idiots," but I hope that's not the case.
But at a minimum, as the talks proceed, it'll help if the media understands what is and isn't "conciliatory." Congressional Republicans, as of yesterday, haven't changed their position at all in over a year, and still expect Democrats to give them entitlement cuts and income-tax breaks in exchange for very little.
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I sincerely don't understand the "fiscal cliff" that we're heading for. I thought going back to the tax rates that we had under President was a GOOD idea. I can understand how the sequester can be harmful, but it's not exactly Armageddon. I think Vermont representative Peter Welch is right is saying that we should let rates go up automatically - then if Congress wants them to come down, they can take credit for cutting taxes. It's a lot of hype I think, but maybe I'm wrong.
The problematic part is that it is likely to put the economy back into recession as the drop in government spending coupled with the loss of consumer spending power by way of higher taxes would overwhelm the modest growth we now have. The unemployed and those who would become unemployed won't likely appreciate it and might hold an electoral grudge.
There is more to the fiscal cliff/sequestration than just raising taxes. There are very harmful built in government cuts. These government cuts will drastically affect businesses (believe it or not MOST businesses are dependent on the govt. in one way or another) and will cause a new recession that will probably be worse than the last recession, with increasing unemployment (with very little unemployment insurance for those laid off).
Go look on CNBC to see what they are saying about the fiscal cliff - they are TRULY frightened of it.
From Wikipedia:
The following provisions of current law are most involved in the fiscal cliff:[10][11]
I don't believe the sequester kick-in will last long enough to kill the economy and put us into another recession (although it is nice to see the RW GOP admit that government spending can and does affect the economy positively). I do believe it's necessary to let the sequester happen, however. It is the only thing that's going to get GOP attention, so that the two sides can sit down together and actually come to an agreement.
Obama and the Dems have consistently caved in on this kind of thing, and it's no wonder the Republicans are confident they can continue to insist it's their way or nothing at all. Nothing less than a strong 'no' will shake that confidence, despite the election results. Heck, they've got themselves well on the way to thinking the losses were because they weren't conservative enough!
Considering those are all things the GOP would like to drop kick anyway I can see why they might reason it would be worth the cuts in defence spending.
Sequestration = austerity = recession. Look at Europe.
For the life of me, I don't understand why Obama bought into all the deficit reduction bull@!$%#.
Obama, Reid's and Pelosi's offer is also this: nothing.
The fiscal cliff is a fiscal gradual ramp. The existing law takes effect, and the bush tax cuts are history. Boehner has poltical cover because he did not raise taxes, and his caucus can claim they cut taxes on low and middle incomes.
Boehner agrees to the grand bargain with much less generous terms than Obama offered last year. He does it and claims victory.
Everyone is happy.
But we fund and militarize the DCCC aggressively NOW and do to the GOP in 2014 what they did to us in 2010.
Let's not forget that Obama hasn't been the best poker player in the last four years. And there's no excuse for him to not know by now what's he's dealing with in the GOTea.
My take is that the country is fed up with the GOP's act, and the time is ripe for Obama and Dems all over to take advantage of it. If they do, a new progressive/liberal era can and will take place.
We need to make that clear to all the decision makers in the power structure of the Democratic party. The last thing we need is the return of spineless, let's-all-get-along Obama when we have another chance to put Republicans on the mat. The GOP needs to be handed some serious in-your-face finger-wagging and then a punch in the mouth if they don't get the message. Same goes for Obama if he goes back to his defensive posture against the Republicans.
Obama owes progressives/liberals. We worked our a$$es off for this second term.
I have to agree with Tombisson and the other posts along that line , the fiscal cliff is media hype , and it is discouraging to see left leaning media repeat it , I'm am tired of the gop and the media running in circles basically saying
"we must cut the deficit or it will ruin the economy , if we cut spending and raise taxes it will ruin the economy "
This is exactly where sane leadership steps in and ends all this hype , it is time to show a strong back bone to all this , obama and the dems have the strong hand because they can do nothing and make a lot happen , if they blink and jump thru any gop loops , we are back to zero
Obama looked relieved that "silly season" was over. His frequent statement was that "he looked forward to that debate", but the Romney campaign probably felt that this was impossible after the devastating spring campaign to identify Romney. So there was no real discussion about the delicate balance between short term stimulus and long term fiscal balance. Perhaps he thinks he will find that honest debate in private.
That's fine. I fear he has little regard for the brutality of campaign warfare and prefers to set it aside. He does not have the luxury of going into a single mode of activity.
Obama has got to start treating the GOP on a dual track just as he does the Taliban. Engage them with negotiation, but obliterate them if they choose to obstruct. That means a muscular militarized DCCC ready to serve a Congressional candidate whether a blue dog or a Kucinich left winger. A permanent standing army that watches what the GOP is doing to take state offices in order to suppress the vote. That understand how to counter the threat of gerrymandering long before GOP operatives are in place to redraw districts. A militarized DCCC that understands and fully employs the techniques of the Obama campaign.
Obama needs to take actions to see that the democratic national party is regarded as not a conscript army or place for jobs that are merely a political stepping stone. The national party needs to be regarded with the honor and professionalism associated with the US Army. Guys that know how to effectively kill the political careers of GOP opponents.
Hyperpartisanship does not belong in the negotiation room, but it is an abdication of responsibility not to engage in no holds barred hyperpartisan campaign warfare in House districts occupied by GOP obstructionists.
This is not Obama's last campaign. The 2014 and 2016 congressional races are.
And we need to redeploy for that battle now.
The fiscal cliff is being reporting as something that will happen instantenous....it will not. Wall Street and the MSM are promoting this BS like Fox promoted Romney/Ryan and the the GOP, total lunacy! The entitlements have never been a deficit driver until after "W" and GOP governance.......we, the american people ARE entitled to what we spent a lifetime paying into. Deficits can be addressed by taxing the wealthy, closing the wealthy loopholes, wall street reform, getting rid of corporate welfare etc. My argument is based on common fiscal sense. SS recepients spent money that creates demand, demand creates jobs. Tax cuts for the 99%, that money will be spent, further creating demand, jobs created. The more money average consumers have to spend will reduce the deficit.....it is not rocket science!!!
Are you guys ignoring the debt ceiling fight before year end?
It seems both sides are ignoring reality. The Repubs are wallowing in defeat, wondering why they lost. The Dems are euphoric over victory, thinking they have the upper hand. But, keep in mind, all this gets decided in a lame duck. The current numbers still prevail.
While raising taxes on the wealthy is popular (ask anyone making $250,000 in NYC if they consider themselves wealthy) it does little to fix the problem. The main drivers of deficits are entitlements. They must be addressed, not ignored as the Pres has.
Much was made of the Pres' leadeship during Sandy. Let's see him now lead on the cliff. A true leader can even overcome obstructionism. Read about LBJ.
Can't expect much until GOP is chastised in 2014 by loss of House control.
This has to be done by the end of this year to prevent another recession. "Can't expect much" is our problem. Yes, we can expect much, and we've got to demand it.
The House and Senate work for us, we don't work for them. Either the House starts doing its job, or we need to start a barrage of letters, tweets, demanding comments on Reps' Facebook pages, email them directly, not through petition, but from their websites, call them on the phone several times, write letters to our local newspapers, and march in the streets if necessary.
They will keep this up if we let them. We need to make it is crystal clear that business as usual is over and they will do their jobs now with no "or else". They can do their jobs or we can pressure them to resign and replace them with representative who will do the job.
The electorate should have voted the CONS/TP out this election cycle....they are the problem!!!! Instead, the folks will never adhere or accept what the american people require until they are voted out of office and let the DEMS repair their damage........history supports my comment!
Von, I agree but I also see a wide gap when it comes to understanding the problem.
The utter fallacy that the United States is somehow inherently a conservative or right-wing nation was proven to be nonsense this Tuesday. Barack Obama's reelection was not based on tricks or technicalities, but rather a larger percentage of this country agreeing with his proposals and trusting him with our future rather than a Republican candidate. And the fabric of America is changing, too. The GOP can win 100 percent of the 45+ white vote, but that means nothing when more and more voters are young or Hispanic, African Americans, etc. Republicans have closed their tent, and they are reaping the bitter fruit of that strategy. - progressive
As an older white male, I would like to point out to you that the repukes will never get 100% of us nor much, if any, more than they have now. Many of us are progressives who care more about the future of our country (and our children and grandchildren) than we do about items that affect 'only' us.
Great point.....reality is real....the CONS reject this simple fact!
I couldnt agree more with either statement. I began to wholly distrust the GOP during the Bush presidencies. Going into Iraq under COMPLETELY FALSE PRETENSES was a grave mistake for them. Since then, i have noticed how they often spin the truth, distort reality, and are only out for their own personal interest. Those interest dont align with mine. Until that party is out with the old, in with the new, they will never be trusted again.
Actually 100% of the white vote of 45 years old and older would have won the election for Mr. Romney by over 5 million votes if my quick math is right. See I don't know if you guys noticed this, but the white vote was 72% of the total vote. And yeah, that is more than enough to win any election if you can get all of it. You just can't beat that math.
I would also like to point out to you that President Obama split the total white vote 40/60 or 39/61 depending on how you round. 39% of 72% of 122,492,494 votes is 34,395,892.32 votes. (Current vote totals, still rising and due revision.) Or more than half of the votes President Obama got at the current vote count. That isn't to say that white people won the election for him by any means. It was a broad coalition of many different races and both genders that won it for President Obama. And we could not have done it without each other.
They're still bargaining in bad faith. I was listening to a Republican advisor on NPR this morning and he said "they were open to additional revenue", which sounds a little conciliatory, but he wouldn't commit to raising rates, and he wouldn't commit to closing tax loopholes, which are the only two ways to get new revenue. So basically, they want to appear reasonable, without giving anything. They know this is a losing issue, so they,re trying to obfuscate their intransigence by saying they're open to new revenue when they aren't. It's the same game they've been playing all along - pretend to be open to compromise, then say no to any plan.
And that is exactly the cue for obama to forcefully say WE ARE DONE PLAYING THESE GAMES GOP!!!!
The President was re-elected Bonehead, now get over yourself and get your temper tantrum throwing House children in line and get over yourselves! I get it with over 241 millionaires in Congress - you all are protecting your own interests also, along with signing your soul over to Grover - but you realize that what you're doing is TREASON against the very people that you have sworn an oath to defend & represent don't you?! The President and Senate have a mandate, Bonehead, that's why he was re-elected! Stop posturing and start working!
it is called 'negotiating from a position of strength'. Also, 'asking for more than you know you will get.'
LucyRepublicans always do this. AndCharlie BrownDemocrats always fall of it.This time around President Obama needs to take it directly to the American people. Because the MSM surely won't.
I think Obama needs to start channeling his inner T.R. and use the Bully Pulpit to just go over congresses head and straight to the boss...namely us.
Of course all the right will hear is the "WaaaWa, WaWaa, WaWa" of Charlie Brown adults
Day nails it again , and WE can play the active roll in this , the msm is toast , they refuse to do their job , and it is no good complaining about them any more , it is up to US to make so much noise that the gop are shamed into doing the sane thing
boner tells Obama, "my offer is nothing".
that is exactly right. boner said, "we are ready to be led", which means, "we are ready to be led IF you do things OUR way".
i can't help but recall how the repubs WERE LED by W. bush, how they agreed with and signed on to everything he wanted. the american people still blame the bush administration for the economic mess we find ourselves in today. they also blame the repub party for the debt ceiling debacle, and the OBSTRUCTION in congress that we are so TIRED OF.
the american people spoke loud and clear.
THEY LIKE WHAT OBAMA AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY STAND FOR.
Right on suzette. Two years should work well getting rid of worthless Republicans finally. And as we get affected by Global Warming it should sink in real good.
So Obama beats Romney - and the Speaker of the House proposes that the winner implements the losers' tax policy..... ?!?!?!?
It is amazing that the Rush Limbaugh types are that dumb, but really it is no surprise. And if the dough-dough’s cannot figure it out too bad, bye bye once and for all, and finally for once good riddance of those worthless deadbeats. Good Byeeeeeeee it will be nice to know you finally enough and never want you again.
The sequester is dangerous because pet projects could be arbitrarily cut into or eliminated.
If this rolls into sequester the politician would have to go back to their constituents and explain why they aren't getting a handout. So it's int he best interest of ALL pols to avoid sequestration.
Only thing I can tell the Republicans is, Barry's a Lame Duck President, I would NOT play chicken with him.
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this is from the Slate article:
the answer is simple: Grover Norquist
Considering that many on the right are calling for even more conservative positions from the party despite the results of the election Boehner can't afford to look to soft and squishy to his base. If he lets the tax cut expire he gets to blame the white house while proclaiming he has never voted for a tax hike. It would theoretically make the the President look bad (which always plays well on the right) and he gets to play David to the Democratic Goliath.
The crazy part is that he must somehow believe that that is a sustainable political position or that Americans (at least the ones who don't watch Fox) won't notice and figure it out. This is the problem with believing your own hype and don't listen to things outside the bubble.
Does anybody know if there's a law on which Grover Norquist and/or the politicians who signed his pledge could be brought up on charges and prosecuted?
Norquist is clearly a domestic enemy of the state, and Senators and Representatives, Governors and State Legislators who signed his pledge are violating their Constitutional oaths. Isn't that some form of treason, or at least a lesser relative of treason?
I'm ready to do whatever we can within the law to end Norquist's reign.
You are pushing the treason envelope even more than the Republicans pushed the impeachment envelope!
It may not be treason, but it's something. If their conscious and/or constituency tells them to hold firm against tax increases, that's one thing. Being beholden to Norquist is something else. The only saving grace is that the pledge reaffirms their position so as to make it insignificant. We'll know soon enough.
My observation of President Obama over the past four years is he is a thoughtful, introspective, pragmatic leader whose first strategy for solving problems is to negotiate a sensible compromise. When that doesn't work, he kicks your ass. Case in point is the first Presidential debate. Obama tried reason. It didn't work. So in the second and third debates, he kicked ass. Same holds for his two terms in office. In his first term, he tried to reason with unreasonable Republicans. It didn't work. In his second term, mark my words, he will kick some serious ass.
"My observation of President Obama over the past four years is he is a thoughtful, introspective, pragmatic leader whose first strategy for solving problems is to negotiate a sensible compromise. When that doesn't work, he kicks your ass."
Unfortunately, Obama, all too often, has surrendered before negotiating a sensible compromise. Tou don't negotiate against yourself and succeed!
When you look at the price to be paid by citizens (losing unemployment extensions, and increase in the payroll tax) I can understand why Obama made some of those deals. I wish he had been able to hold fast in every case, but a lot of people would have been hurt in a bad economy. Just saying!
When a station like CNBC is having a freak-out over something, I think it's just like the weather channel having a freak-out over a snowstorm in Buffalo, New York. It's in CNBC's interest to frighten viewers so that they will stay tuned in. Not to sound too Orwellian about it, but the media's job is to scare us into paying attention to them. Looking at the list of cuts that oncearepublican provided, by general response is, "so what?" I'm a middle class person and that list really doesn't scare me. Aren't the expiration of the Bush tax cuts supposed to be a good thing? If this election was all about the economic interests of the middle class, then why is it such a BFD?
Pass a major jobs bill, then a more friendly discussion of the deficit can begin. Most Americans are aware that jobs create spending which increases demand, which increases jobs and the tax base. The deficit discussion can follow.
No John...GAME ON! YOU voted for the sequestration, NOT the President. YOU thought you could make a 'deal'. Good. DO YOUR JOB. Tax cuts? We'll let THOSE expire for everyone and deal with that in January. But NOW? DO YOUR JOB.
Unfortunately, Grover Norquist doesn't have to stand for election.
His influence needs to be squelched or removed by citizen action or legal action. One man should not have this much power over elected legislators and in conflict with their Constitutional oaths of office.
If there is a law we can use to end his power, we need to find it and prosecute him. It's one thing to petition your government to solve grievances, but it's totally another when you hold a metaphorical gun to legislators' heads.
The eagle has flown; failure to prosecute Rove over the outing of Valerie Pflame, an undercover agent of the CIA, was a massive mistake of bi-partisanship!
The picture for this article just speaks volumes! I think that is the maximum amount of space they could be apart and still fit in the frame. Boehner looks beaten down, I bet he has had an earful in the last 48 hours.
I really hope that if Obama is again thwarted by the Republicans he takes it to American people. One of his problems has been his lack of getting the message out to the people of what he is trying to do and how the republicans are opposing him.
I am appalled at the response of republicans about working on an agenda for America. We can squawk and write on these blogs till we wear the tips off our fingers and we will have accomplished nothing. What we need to do and I am doing now is get on the phone and the internet. Call all the obstructionist republicans and email them and tell them to wake up and take care of the business of the United States. I know from experience that a voice can make a difference. If we just commiserate amongst ourselves it will make no difference, but if enough of us let our elected representatives know how we feel it just might make a difference, it's worth a try. I am going to call and email my senators and representative today and I hope all who read this will do likewise.
Obama has to grow a spine and call the Republicans out on obstruction, just as Harry Truman did in 1948!
Boehner has to say what he saying now to try and keep his job. Cantor will be after him quick as can be among those in denial saying "we need to be more conservative!!!" Frankly, do not know how many will finally wake up next week and realize the ground has moved. All those business folks calling their governors about what kind of insurance market they are going to have will help - I hope - enough to wake up and see they have to work together for good of country. If not, then begin now to replace about 65 of them in 2 years!
He's not smart enough to realize they are crashing and burning.
But unfortunately, those who watch only the conservative media, will blame this on the Presidents and the Dems instead of on Boehner and the GOP
So my view, for what its worth is that the Republicans in Congress represent a skewed slice of red America. And to boot, they controls only a little more than half of one branch of government. In contrast, the Democrats control a little less than half of one branch of government, all on the Senate and all of the Administration. This means that unless Bohner changes his tune (i.e. to build coalitions of Democrats AND Republicans) in the House, then nothing the House does will get past the Senate.
The idea that the House will do NOTHING will not really endear them to the voters...they are already less liked than Castro!
If I were the President, I would let the tax cuts expire and allow the sequestration to appear to go forward. i would have all the power in the conversation and sooner or later, the minority party will have to come to the party...
The House did nothing in the last congress and got re-elected. They have zero incentive to cooperate with Dems now.
Steve
Why do you only see what you want to see instead of what actually occured? Boehner said that he would agree with closing unnamed tax loopholes and unamed deductions if Obama would agree to unnamed entitlement cuts and unnamed tax reform that raises federal revenue. I guess that telling 1/2 the story makes for better reading on this blog.
Because #4 already answered this
Let me get this straight, their idea of compromise is to offer up the Romney tax plan?
boehner is nothing more than an errand boy for the republican caucus (circus?). obama is smarter than to try dealing with the monkey. the sad reality is that the organ grinder has gone bonkers.
We have to make it perfectly clear that Sequestration was Boehner and McConnell's idea, the price they demanded in the debt ceiling hostage crisis for not killing America's credit rating. Boehner bragged he got 98% of what he wanted afterward. McConnell chuckled that it was well worth doing and he might do it again. They created this problem. They can come to the table or there will be hell to pay. There will be only about $13 billion in spending cuts next year but if we let Obama's and Bush's tax cuts for the middle class and poor expire we stand to lose a million jobs next year from lower demand. Make it clear that GOP obstructionism is unacceptable. if you have a GOP congressman or senator it's never too early to call their office and read the riot act to the staffer that answers the phone.
So Boehner and the house of representatives are to blame for all of this. That is b.s. If the democrats would have stood up to them to start with we would not be in this position. The senate is democrat controlled and they voted for this, the president signed it, they are all at fault. As for the republicans in the house they are representing the people who elected them, just as the democrats are. Last look at the electoral map I seen there was still a lot of red on it. This is the exact divide and conquer bull crap this country does not need at this time. There are people hurting in this country if you start shoving more stuff down their throats without conceeding something the divide will get larger, the rhetoric will get worse, and if this occurs over a long enough course, you will start to see violence.