Associated Press
Why the right never saw this coming.
One of the most striking aspects of the last couple of days is noticing how surprised Republicans are by President Obama's victory. Many on the right simply seem floored, as if the president's defeat were such an obvious inevitability, they never imagined anything to the contrary.
Paul Glastris flagged an interesting item from the Washington Examiner's Byron York, highlighting "how stunned so many of Romney's supporters were." York added that these Republicans "said they were influenced by the prominent conservatives who predicted a big Romney win, and they fully expected Tuesday night to be a victory celebration. "
Conor Friedersdorf added that rank-and-file conservatives, who operated from a "self-imposed information disadvantage," should probably ask themselves "Why were we the last to realize that things were going wrong for us?"
If you're a rank-and-file conservative, you're probably ready to acknowledge that ideologically friendly media didn't accurately inform you about Election 2012. Some pundits engaged in wishful thing; others feigned confidence in hopes that it would be a self-fulfilling prophecy; still others decided it was smart to keep telling right-leaning audiences what they wanted to hear.
But guess what? You haven't just been misinformed about the horse race. Since the very beginning of the election cycle, conservative media has been failing you. With a few exceptions, they haven't tried to rigorously tell you the truth, or even to bring you intellectually honest opinion. What they've done instead helps to explain why the right failed to triumph in a very winnable election.
We've talked before about epistemic closure, but the last several months offer a rather profound example of the phenomenon, and why those stuck in this bubble aren't doing themselves any favors.
For many of the voters stunned by the election results, objective information is easily -- and deliberately -- avoided. They read a conservative newspaper in the morning, listened to conservative talk radio during the day, come home and watched Fox News before going to bed.
In epistemic closure, folks in a closed environment essentially get new information from one another, and for the last several months, conservative leaders, activists, and voters were all telling themselves and each other that President Obama is a horrific monster who would be crushed by a resurgent republic rebelling against his tyrannical radicalism.
What about polls showing the president favored to win? They were skewed, the right said. What about experts pointing to Obama's structural advantages? They were from liberal schools with liberal degrees and weren't to be trusted, the right added. What about the drop in the unemployment rate? That was the result of a conspiracy, the right insisted. What about analyses showing the president isn't really a radical, but is actually a mainstream, center-left technocrat pursuing ideas that have traditionally enjoyed bipartisan support? That was just madness, the right scoffed.
For conservatives, the Affordable Care Act is a "government takeover" of heath care (it's not); the deficit, taxes, and government spending went up under Obama (they didn't); and the economy is worse than it was four years ago (it's not). Why did Republicans believe this? Because everyone else on the right told them this is true.
Which is precisely why Tuesday night came as something of a shock.
Looking ahead, then, this seems like an ideal time for the right to consider whether the bubble has served them well. Conservatives who assumed Romney/Ryan would win because they were told he would win might want to pause, ponder, and decide whether they want actual information or propaganda carefully packed to make them feel better. The latter is certainly political candy, but as was the case late Tuesday night, the sugar high doesn't last, and it leads to a nasty headache.
Friedersdorf added, "On the biggest political story of the year, the conservative media just got its ass handed to it by the mainstream media. And movement conservatives, who believe the MSM is more biased and less rigorous than their alternatives, have no way to explain how their trusted outlets got it wrong, while the New York Times got it right. Hint: The Times hired the most rigorous forecaster it could find. It ought to be an eye-opening moment."
Yes, it ought to be, but whether it is remains to be seen. With this larger point in mind, I sure hope everyone saw last night's A block.
For those who can't watch clips online, here's Rachel's conclusion:
"Ohio really did go to President Obama last night. And he really did win. And he really was born in Hawaii. And he really is legitimately president of the United States, again.
"And the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not make up a fake unemployment rate last month. And the Congressional Research Service really can find no evidence that cutting taxes on rich people grows the economy. And the polls were not skewed to oversample Democrats. And Nate Silver was not making up fake projections about the election to make conservatives feel bad. Nate Silver was doing math.
"And climate change is real. And rape really does cause pregnancy sometimes. And evolution is a thing.
"And Benghazi was an attack on us, it was not a scandal by us. And nobody is taking away anyone`s guns. And taxes have not gone up. And the deficit is dropping, actually.
"And Saddam Hussein did not have weapons of mass destruction. And the moon landing was real. And FEMA is not building concentration camps. And U.N. election observers are not taking over Texas. And moderate reforms of the regulations on the insurance industry and the financial services industry in this country are not the same thing as communism.
"Listen, last night was a good night for liberals and for Democrats for very obvious reasons, but it was also, possibly, a good night for this country as a whole, because in this country, we have a two-party system in government. And the idea is supposed to be that the two sides, both come up with ways to confront and fix the real problems facing our country. They both propose possible solutions to our real problems. And we debate between those possible solutions.
"And by the process of debate, we pick the best idea. That competition between good ideas from both sides about real problems in the real country should result in our country having better choices, better options, than if only one side is really working on the hard stuff.
"And if the Republican Party and the conservative movement and the conservative media is stuck in a vacuum-sealed door-locked spin cycle of telling each other what makes them feel good and denying the factual, lived truth of the world, then we are all deprived as a nation of the constructive debate about competing feasible ideas about real problems.
"Last night the Republicans got shellacked, and they had no idea it was coming. And we saw them in real time, in real humiliating time, not believe it, even as it was happening to them.
"And unless they are going to secede, they are going to have to pop the factual bubble they have been so happy living inside if they do not want to get shellacked again. And that will be a painful process for them, but it will be good for the whole country, left, right, and center. You guys, we`re counting on you. Wake up.
"There are real problems in the world. There are real, knowable facts in the world. Let`s accept those and talk about how we might approach our problems differently. Let`s move on from there.
"If the Republican Party and the conservative movement and conservative media are forced to do that by the humiliation they were dealt last night, we will all be better off as a nation. And in that spirit, congratulations, everybody. Big night."
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Looks like the Guardian knew a DAY IN ADVANCE when they published this on Monday:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/nov/05/republican-party-self-sabotage-2012-election
In other words, all Republicans are totally nuts. Yep that about sums it up. Better bring in the Psychiatrists and therapists. Forget about Michelle Bachmans husband, he is a loony tune nut.
Maybe we can start a "Pray the GOP away" camp!
Doesn't Ms. Bachman have the loony-tune nut role already? Mr./Dr. Bachman need not apply to the position: it's already filled.
How long does it take for this epistemic closure to finalize with finality?
Someone tell the bigots in the south that that was not a cease fire that General Lee signed. The South got the crap beaten out of them.
The south will rise again! Don't you know that it was in reality called "The War of Northern Agression"?
/snark
Here's an interesting quote from that article:
Is that really the case? My impression has always been that Dubya is not welcome in the GOP tent anymore due to the fact that his administration oversaw the economic meltdown and he is deeply unpopular with the electorate for that (and various other) reasons. Did I miss something along the way?
I've always felt that the reason Republicans keep away from him is they don't want the electorate to know they're thrilled with what he did, since they've been trying to pretend they give a damn about people that aren't rich.
Here's one for you kids . This is the local teaparty blurb here in redneckistan central Florida . I'm sure it is typical of many on that side who live in Faux land.
The website originator is a Building supply owner who couldn't come to grips with the crashed local economy when the cookie cutter subdivision building suddenly stopped because of the crash provided by the previous administration.
http://us2.campaign-archive2.com/?u=518bb98869479f87b18baeba8&id=427b24f77d&e=54558c8993
Excellent article.
sick-That article was truly frightening. They really believe that anyone who voted for Obama is on public assistance.
Idiots.
Ah yes, "The Right Side of the Lake" - it was all the welfare lazybums who wanted to keep sucking at the government teat.
These people still don't understand that they got their asses whipped in 1865 because they were idiots. We obviously let their ancestors off far too easily, as demonstrated by the fact they have descendants.
BTW - this is not the first bunch of whackjobs I have heard with that complaint.
Now now.
Look back on your DVR and play the parts where all the MSNBC pundits said the race would be close.
Nate Silver correctly predicted the Romney fiasco, but to be fair there were other guys at Politico and TPM that were running the same sort of analysis as Nate pointed out on Rachel's show.
Anyway, Matthews remarked on how wrong he was, and how stunned he was at the rapidity of the swing states falling early in the night.
So it wasn't just the right living in a surreal bubble of unreality. Not that I was particularly realistic. I was pushing for more aggressive donations to house races. We only picked up a few there. Out of the 16 races I donated to, only 8 won. I intended to focus on the more red/ longer shot races because the only way to get to 218 was to go long an put those in play.
Anyway, maybe you have to be partly delusional to ignore the cynical stuff and think you can do some good in politics.
To the point about the South, they almost won the war early on because they had better leadership and better shooters, more disciplined troops. They think they can do the same today. Oh yes, they smoke a lot of cigarettes too.
Of course the average honky now weighs 300lbs, drives a truck to go duck hunting, and wouldn't last three weeks without massive amounts of food and beer. They are delusional about those aspects now anyway and not just their politics.
The news said students in Alabama were burning election sign and rioting, or nearly so. These are rich kids and they're just aping their parents. The worst drivers in the US are in Alabama and they don't understand physics but they do understand the methods to control their own economy. Even if it's slower than the rest of the country they still get richer by suppressing the rest of the population and getting them to fight amongst themselves.
Well, Freddie, the Republicans (GOP) do have to try to come up with an excuse for Georgie Bush, even though Bush and Chenney were so incompetent in government and showed it too well. This is just the Republicans trying to brush under the carpet a dying breed that has been needed for too long now.
Way back during the Republican primaries, I speculated that given the chance to run against the real Obama or the Obama of their paranoid delusions, the GOP would pick the latter as their opponent, and that it wouldn't work. Well, they did run against the fantasy Obama and in a big way. Toward the end of the general, when the national polls started to tighten, I really started to wonder whether the strategy might work. The swing-state polls were more encouraging, but Romney seemed to be doing better than I hoped/expected. The narrowing of the gender gap really rattled me. In the end, though, their preference for what they wished to be true over what is true did in fact ruin everything for the Republicans (except in the gerrymandered-to-hell-and-back House districts).
I don't know if the right can learn anything from this. After all, their whole strategy has been based on not learning anything. Why give up on denial when even more denial is so much more satisfying? Besides which, the Republican base is hard-wired for closure. How does the GOP change course in anything without alienating their base; and how do they remain a political player if they do alienate their base?
The way the GOP and its minions have been losing their minds over the last few days has been entertaining... but I really do hope that it leads to a more rational and fact-based opposition. That's what we need for a healthy republic.
Not that I won't enjoy the hissy fits and hair-tearing despair for a bit.
"...hope that it leads to a more rational and fact-based opposition."
Hey grumpy - that would mean the GOTP acknowledge R-E-A-L-I-T-Y, and they haven't gotten there, yet. But I'm eating popcorn as I watch them meltdown...
Guaranteed not to happen. Didn't happen in 1960, 1964, 1974, 1992, 1996, 2006, 2008, and not in 2012. They're "the cockroaches of American politics" as Frank Rich so accurately described them.
Hope springs eternal. At least in the meantime, they're amusing... when they aren't horrifying.
Apparently, Rommey didn't even write a concession speech.
Surprise!
Would you say, an October surprise?
I bet that probably wasn't true. Romney doesn't write his own speeches, so he may not have known that one was written, but I'd be willing to bet his speechwriters had written it, and no one wanted to tell him. Would you want to be the one to do that?
The real reason for delaying the concession speech seems to be that they really had deluded themselves that they were going to win Ohio, so they didn't concede until the race was lost even without it.
Yeah. I'd want to be the one to do that. "Hey, Mitt! I've got your concession speech right here! I wrote it six months ago!" Hahahahahaha!
My hunch was that he wrote one (or, yes, had one written for him) and was just such a dick that he delayed delivering it long enough to:
a) have time to cancel the campaign credit cards for his staff (see Thursday's Mini-Report) and
b) push President Obama's victory speech back into the wee hours of the morning (I stayed up for it anyway).
Got Enraged and Engaged:
Mooched the Vote 2012!
;-)
Hey rich Republican bastards thank you for stimulating our economy in trying to rig this election. Heeehehehheheheheheee!!!! Now that was part worth it for a bunch of rich worthless Republican bastards.
Couldn't the converse also be true--that the reason Obama won was because more people were victim to the "epistemic closure" of left- or left-leaning media? I'm an Obama fan & supporter, but I essentially did the same thing--i.e. got my news from anyone except Fox. I like to think I looked at all possible sides of the issues, and became as informed as I had time/desire to be, but...I think there could be an equally astute argument that we are all victim of our chosen worldviews. Just food for thought...And, by all means, please someone prove me wrong. :)
I wonder about the same thing...but you didn't really hear the dissing of the numbers when things went south after the first debate ...you know facts having a liberal bias. If they said we were down in the polls , more motivation to GOTV
"Anyone except Fox" isn't a closed worldview, there are a lot of diverse opinions from various parts of the political spectrum. Certainly, we all tend to give more credence to sources with views similar to our own, but that's not the same as <em>only</em> giving credence to those sources.
The key way you can tell the difference is that Fox and right wing radio will tell their audience not to trust any other sources because they are all biased, and only the conservative media tell them the "truth." That's what makes a bubble. Maddow and ThinkProgress will tell you that Fox is biased (because it is) and will complain about <em>cases</em> where general media outlets are buying into right-wing spin or, for example, aren't calling Romney's lies what they are, but they won't tell you to pay no attention to those outlets at all.
When Nate Silver and Sam Wang start adding magic fudge factors to their analyses to make the polling coming out in a way that's more pleasing to them, I'll give your POV some consideration.
Wondering whether you're suffering from epistomologic closure because you get your news "from anyone but Fox" is like someone wondering whether he should be giving serious consideration to the stories in Pravda in 1950 or in the Volkischer Beobachter in 1940. Yeah, there was useful information about the enemies' mindsets that could be extracted by reading their propaganda sheets, but that's not the same thing as believing what they reported had anything to do with objective reality.
Reality is objective. It's why a Fox News is able to exist in the first place.
But if you re-read Benen's piece, he does make the point that a lot of right-wingers habitually and with relish flat-out rejected "facts" that proved them wrong as having a liberal bias. There's that old saying that even Mitt Romney used during that debacle of a first debate, "you're entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts" (the fact that he used it to support an argument not rooted in fact is moot, just wanted to point out that even he's heard it, haha). Here's the relevant portion of Benen's piece, emphasis mine:
haoo14: If you read Nate Silver's 538 blog, he discussed the issue of bias in the polls, and concluded that ALL the state polls would have to be systematically biased towards Obama for his prediction of an Obama victory to be wrong. At one point, he suggested that based on the polls, Obama should give up on Florida and concentrate on the other battleground states. (Many of his readers rejected that conclusion). Nate hasn't written his post-mortem yet, but based on Obama's narrow margin in Florida and his margin of victory in the battleground states, it appears that the state polls were actually slightly biased towards Romney.
Good points to all--I suppose in my own case, and in the minds of those who choose to give mainstream media more credence than overtly politically leaning media--there has to be a middle ground somewhere. And unless one is a science-denier or religious fanatic, and assuming one is capable of critical thinking--the B.S. fades to the periphery and the truth becomes more apparent.
We all live in little mental boxes. These boxes are fed information filtered through our senses.
It takes real effort to analyze and scrutinize this input. I have been studying this field for about three years now.
If you really want to know how we know what we think we know read Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman's book "Thinking Fast and Slow".
He has spent his life studying how we make decisions and why we fail so often.
The main difference between Fox (conservative media) and liberal media ls conservative media encourages closed minds and do not want you thinking about other possible alternatives. The liberal media is more open minded allowing all the facts to be presented and subject to review. It is a matter of what you want, do you want just selective narrow-minded thought = conservative media or do you want to be presented with all possibilities which includes all information such as knowledge, science, history, humanities, social issues, etc.
like to think I looked at all possible sides of the issues, and became as informed as I had time/desire to be,
Given how everyone on our side kept looking for independent facts, no matter how unpalatable and made decisions based on them, I think you became as informed as you had time/desire to be. Unlike the whackjobs.
Romney might have won it for the vote suppression but the Libertarian vote was almost the same as Obama's lead. Nate's analysis was very good though. I'd bet on his numbers...
Horrifying thought, anonymoose (and, btw, I really like your screen name - a shout-out to one of the all time animation greats!).
Got Enraged and Engaged:
Mooched the Vote 2012!
;-)
I had lunch with a friend who told of hearing a co-worker declare, "I'm not going to watch Fox News any more, they really screwed this up," (at which point we all were thinking "wow, there is hope!") The co-worker continued, "I'm going to listen to someone more reliable -- Hannity."
Oh, well. Maybe there's still a kernel of possibility there...
Yeah, as an eventual recipient of Medicare/Social Security, your friend may extend his illogical point by exclaiming he wants to keep the government's hands off his Medicare/Social Security benefits!
Kinda like listening to Hannity and not realizing he is the same on the radio as he is on FOX! I pity your co-worker and his/her confusion! -Kevo
I was listening to Hugh Hewitt last night, and he was demanding that his audience draw the bubble tighter and thicker: "Don't watch MSNBC. Don't buy magazines like Time. Don't listen to liberal radio. Don't buy newspapers. Don't even use Google or AOL or Yahoo. Listen to me, and Mark [Levin], and Rush [Limbaugh]."
I'm actually really afraid for the next two years. The meme on the right is now "Every time the Democrats do something it's horrible and wrong; every time we oppose them we are right and good. America is doomed under the illegitimate Democratic presidency, and if it's doomed nothing we do can make it worse, so we're free to do our best to wreck anything and everything the Democrats want."
Hugh Hewitt is generally laughed at behind his back.
They're just trying to hold onto an audience that is finding them harder and harder to believe.
The Republicans don't need facts because they have different set of facts. The indisputable facts have a liberal bias. The conservatives have ideology and belief/faith which are perfectly acceptable substitutes in their alternate universe. And the conservatives will retreat back to that universe without consideration of the realities of the election.
I think there were plenty, if not a majority of right wing media folks who knew that Romney was at best a long shot, but not only do they buy into the idea that their worldview is "correct" but they also adhere to the notion that they have to sell their worldview as strongly as possible, and one of the ways to sell an idea is with overwhelming confidence. The people who were caught off guard are the ones who bought the lie that "everything is going fine!" whereas folks like Karl Rove are PAID to lie and sell it no matter how far away from winning it is. The one question you can ask is why people sank so much money into a losing proposition, and the answer to that is they really didn't have any other choice, and they did come awful close to buying their way in to the White House.
But it all makes sense, really!
If you are a conservative republican (or a Tea-Vangelical), then psychologically you are far more inclined to subjugate your own beliefs to those of others you feel are Authorities. Those Authorities can be your preacher telling you that Teh Gay are ruining Amurika; they can be Fox Noise and its multiple personalities declaring that Global Warning is a hoax, Evolution is a lib'rul conspiracy, and Democrats are lazy takers who are out to turn YOUR COUNTRY into a socialist hell-hole. They can be anyone, of course, who speaks to your craving for confirmation bias. So Republicans denied the likelihood of the Obama/Biden re-election, then they'll deny the actual re-election by claiming THEY (us lib'rul, gay-luvin' socialists) stole it, then they'll return to the imaginary bubble they built over the last 4 years: President Barack Obama isn't a real Amurikan (pick your latest insane argument for why).
It all makes sense. Reality doesn't fit their confirmation biases, so they'll just ignore reality. They think they can ignore Global Warming and Evolution (and, for that matter, any part of science, especially female biology), so why should we expect them to accept the reality that is the Second Term of President Obama?
Prediction: Fox Noise will continue, a bit farther from reality than before, a lot more wing-nuttier than before, far more embarrassing than ever before.
We just need to learn how to laugh more loudly and mock them more effectively.
"And Evolution is a thing" - I just love that :-)
I thought that was one of the best pieces Rachel has ever done. A truly brilliant bit of commentary.
Weapons of Mass Deception
The Republicans have caught on how to exploit a weakness in human wetware. Science has discovered that people (not just Republicans) will almost always believe something so long as it reinforces what they already believe, and will discount whatever conflicts with it. It does not matter how often a lie has been debunked or how solid the evidence for a truth is. In our pre-electronic times, this feature of the human brain helped filter out nonsense or the occasional lie. However, it cannot cope with an avalanche of electronically amplified mass deception (e.g. TV ad blitzes, fake computer-generated Internet posts, robocalls…)
That's not necessarily true. Otherwise, how would Obama have been elected?
I bet the person most stunned was Romney himself. He actually thought his vapor-intensive platform of Anyone But Obama would win him the White House.
To have been a fly on the wall when he and Mrs. It's Our Turn realized it wouldn't be.
My parents and I are at near-polar opposites of the political aisle, and I can't tell you how many times I've had to stop the conversation with "If we can't agree on what reality is, then there's no way to have a meaningful discussion about it." They haven't called since the election. Hopefully their heads didn't pop.
My other thought about the election is, if repubs come back to the center, will the media come with them? Since their media let them so far astray, any return to sanity and reality will have to begin with them. Paradoxically, telling the truth hasn't earned promotion or money in the last 4 years.
I haven't spoken to my mother since the second debate!!
I think you two are going to have to realize you're the adults in the family.
@oddduck35, I was wondering the same thing. Will the adults in the Repub party realize that the angry white guy and evangelical vote is no longer working for them. The numbers are not there for them to win the nation. Would they turn towards the center and try to make sense to all people.
Then I see Boehner come out at stick to his guns about not raising taxes on the rich and realize that they have not learned anything. It will be a long time before they learn their lesson.
Weapons of Mass Deception (2)
All the Republicans (or anyone else) has to do is keep repeating the same lies over and over with electronic amplification so that each voter hears them thousands of times creating the illusion each lie is a commonly accepted fact, e.g. the lie that Obama has no birth certificate and no irrefutable supporting evidence proving he is an American citizen, and that there is solid evidence that he is a citizen of Kenya.
The main difference between normal people and the uber-right whack jobs that watch Fox News and other far-right media outlets is that normal people are self-aware, and know that not one source can be right all the time, and even your own opinion can be wrong. I also feel most media outlets besides Faux News and the like have a sense of dignity and responsibility about the journalism profession... again-- self awareness.
I really don't think Republicans take a honest look in the mirror at themselves or their beliefs ever. EVER. And it has come back to haunt them!
Weapons of Mass Deception (3)
What can you do to protect yourself from mass deception bombarding you from all directions (not just the Republicans)? You have to pay far more attention to the evidence for and against any statement, and far less on how many "people" mindlessly claim they do or do not believe it. Also check with multiple fact-checking websites and check the checkers.
Just goes to show they're stooges and they haven't figured it out yet. There's a lot of talk about recriminations and blood letting.
A lot comes from Romney's corporate culture which skews everything in a rosy light. The other side is Rove's culture of lies like Bush saying "I'm a uniter, not a divider" which was conceived as a lie.
Of course Romney was a liar as well but he really wasn't as good at it. His lies were so obviously lies because he said just the opposite a few months or years before. His followers weren't paying attention but the rest of us were.
I think that's why some followers were upset when Obama called Romney out, they were unaware! They are the true lazy, low info voters.
This is from the same party that believes the President won his first term as a fluke. They get all of their news from Fox - they only allow their approved "journalists" access to their candidate. They lie to themselves - more than they lie to the rest of us. Many of them believe Obama is a Socialist, Atheist, Muslim, Lying Cheating - Kenyan. I think the term DELUDED describes them very well.
It's funny out here is Indiana the signs have all come down, and the adds have all stopped and there is this sense of just a kind of collective "Oooph" like they just took a shot in the solar plexus. But even out here there are people like myself either rogue Democrats or sensible independents that are going around with our heads held high and a feeling of satisfaction that can only come from knowing you had enough sense to get off the tracks before the train came instead of standing there like a light bedazzled deer.
The thing is I am sure the conservatives will all wrap themselves in their philosophical security blanket and insist that this is all just another conspiracy and that the world really didn't reject their ideas or their candidates and that like the last drunk at the bar they will just stubbornly steadfastly refuse to admit to themselves that the party is over
"FEMA building concentration camps" (no wonder they're over budget!). I saw a rant of this on Nature or Sci American's web site discussing Hurricane Sandy and Climate Change the other day. The whole thing was "faked" the writer claimed, and maybe even the government set off an A-bomb to create the destruction.
Then another used the story about a T-Rex which had remnants of tissue found in bone sections as proof that humans (humans!) existed with the T-Rex and they were only a few thousand years old.
I don't know how to rebut these claims without insulting them a lot. If I'm too subtle it goes right over their heads. Hopefully they're harmless...
I wrote about this exact thing today:
http://terrygilmoreshead.com/2012/11/08/the-2012-presidential-election/
Hannity acted like Tuesday never happened last night. He was on Benghazi faster than you can say Sean-Hannity-Is-a-Moron
Most of the right-wingers I know, including many in my own family, are outwardly confident (to the point of bluster) but extremely insecure underneath and insanely risk-averse. The real world is unpredictable and uncertain, the two things they fear most. So they construct their own little world, surrounded by those just like them, comfortable and secure, or so they think. They live there because they're terrified. And they hate liberals because we're not.
I was pretty terrified at the possibility that Romney could win.
Eloquently stated as only our friends in the United Kingdom can.
I ran from the Republican party when they hit the first couple of branches.
The Guardian also pointed out that even a Mitt Romney presidency may not necessarily change things, because the House Republicans had essentially dug themselves in too deep.
When you have the black cloud of the Tea-Party over your head, you tend to remember why Dick Lugar is no longer in government, and you'd prefer to just do what you're told to survive. There will be no reprieve, no epiphany for them, that says they've fallen off the crazy tree.
Unfortunately, unless a splinter group of more moderate and sane Republicans forms their own party, they will never see how hard they've hit the ground.
Let's just admit that a lot of the "unskewed" stuff was based on racist assumptions just as much as the Welfare ads this election. In order to win, the Republicans were counting on minorities not voting. Some of them tried to make voting harder, but others were content to sit back and say, "Oh, black people are lazy and won't vote on election day. They voted last time because it was the first black president, but they'll go back to not caring this time around."
In the middle of the election day, I noticed a story came out of Florida (on MSNBC) that an anonymous black pastor had said he was actually concerned about enthusiasm lacking in his congregation, but the anti-voting laws actually spurred many into action. If that's true, then the anti-voting laws backfired in a potentially fatal way for the Republicans this election.
But I don't think it's the whole truth. People want to vote. And after 2008, a lot of people who hadn't had all that much of an electoral voice for too much of our history suddenly felt empowered. It's like Maddow said, y'know? Voting makes one feel powerful. And it should. Once people start voting, and see that they're making a difference, they might just like it and be motivated to keep up the trend.
---
Looking forward, the Republicans probably will look to a friendly set of 2014 Senate elections (where all of the seats they hold that are up for reelection are pretty safe) to swing the tide. They'll likely run more token minorities for office, but I don't see them changing their opinions.
If anything, I'd say in 2016, the Tea Party will get their greatest wish: a non-establishment candidate in the general election for President. They'll almost certainly fail, but they'll not have the excuse of "not a TRUE conservative" like they did this year.
Now if only they can perfect a dog whistle to use instead of saying the word, "rape..."