Associated Press
In March, President Obama spoke at an oil and gas field on federal lands in Maljamar, N.M.
Quick quiz: which country is slated to be the world's larger producer of oil in 2017? If you guessed Saudi Arabia, you're mistaken.
The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's leading oil producer by about 2017 and will become a net oil exporter by 2030, according to a new report released on Monday by the International Energy Agency.
That increased oil production, combined with new American policies to improve energy efficiency, means that the United States will become "all but self-sufficient" in meeting its energy needs in about two decades -- a "dramatic reversal of the trend" in most developed countries, the report says.
"The foundations of the global energy systems are shifting," said Fatih Birol, chief economist at the Paris-based organization, which produces the annual World Energy Outlook, in an interview before the release. The agency, which advises industrialized nations on energy issues, had previously predicted that Saudi Arabia would be the leading producer until 2035.
In the national elections that just wrapped up, it was fairly common to hear Republicans suggest President Obama and other Democrats are scaling back domestic oil production, and refuse to make use of domestic resources. The complaints seem a little silly in light of the International Energy Agency's findings -- not only is oil production up over the last four years, but the United States will soon pass the Saudis as the top oil producer on the planet.
What's more, note that the IEA's Birol said nearly half of the nation's projected self-sufficiency is the result of "improving energy efficiency in the United States, primarily from the Obama administration's new fuel economy standards for cars," efficiency standards opposed by Republicans.
Indeed, the IEA's report specifically emphasized the fact that "energy efficiency is just as important as unconstrained energy supply."
That said, the IEA emphasized that more energy efficiency is needed, here and around the world, and the growing global energy market "could make it even harder to prevent dangerous levels of warming."
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Assumes a lot of tar sands and fracking ever after. I also doesn't mean price of gas goes down, just that Saudi output shifts to Asia.
Basically uses drinking water to produce really dirty oil.
Let me see, by 2017, the USA will be the largest producer of crude oil in the world. So much for the President's Energy Policies. Looks like they are PRETTY DARN GOOD!
The oil companies are just shipping it off to other countries, not keeping it at home to improve our lives and lower our cost of living. As long as they can make billions overseas as far as they are concerned we can all drop dead (at least then they wouldn't have to pay any royalties on that domestically produced oil) That's why we have to invest in clean energy for ourselves and not depend on Big Oil (which also happens to own Big Coal)
There is a point there Brianna you made about the cost of living. These rich people keep wanting to drive workers wages and benefits down so we keep complaining about the cost of living. Now where is the sense in that, when we been playing the rich man's games of deception. It is more like our wages and benefits need to go up to a better balance with the rich. The way they got it now with rich people making ridiculous amounts of money by con-ing people is really senseless.
So it's NOT really that American business goes where the TAXES are cheaper...or it's not that the GLOBAL ECONOMY has driven wages down and you cannot sell and compete in the GLOBAL MARKET when your production costs makes your product to expensive....*Sheesh*
One little problem with your thought process there scott-3860658 those products are still at a huge mark up where companies are making huge profits on slave labor. Where is the sense in that? Is that a good thing to have slave labor and these people who run these companies making huge wages as everybody else is struggling? Do you actually think a CEO making over 100 million dollars a year is a good thing? Now where is the actual cost of manufacturing, when you just have some fat cat sitting at some desk tweedling his thumbs acting like he is so busy. But many times you can find him on the golf coarse supposedly talking business.
And on top of it, further proof of the millions and millions of dollars on just these rich bastards trying to rig our elections. All of this provided by false inflated prices of products and services. So you were telling me what again?
U.S. Corporations pay on average 10% Taxes lowest in the world, the rate may be 35% however very few companies have such bad tax accountants.
At least we won't have to worry about climate change, oh wait
"That increased oil production, combined with new American policies to improve energy efficiency, means that the United States will become "all but self-sufficient" in meeting its energy needs in about two decades".
Too bad it will be with an unsustainable power source. Additionally, when we end up polluting a large chunk of the "breadbasket", where will the food for the burgeoning population be grown? It's really a shame that we have no foresight other than the profits to be made in the next quarter.
US oil companies put US oil on the global market which sets the price.
US consumers buy that product in the form of gas and heating oil from the global market which sets the price.
This is not "self-sufficient".
The tar sands deposits in the U.S. are mainly located in Eastern Utah. The Canadian deposits are much larger than U.S. deposits. Most of the oil that will be produced in the U.S. will come from petroleum fields that have already been tapped. These fields were considered to have had all of the accessible oil removed, but with new technologies, the oil remaining in these fields can now be extracted. There is still a lot of oil left in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, as well as in Ohio, Texas, Oklahoma, etc. These fields were not drained dry, the oil was extracted using the old fashioned means.
I would definitely say that the US has the ability to be #1 just because we haven't yet tapped into those resources as much. I mean the whole midwest north to south is probably covered in Black Gold...
However, non-oil based economies are more interesting to me.
Love the news or hate it, the bottom line is this points to the completely "ficitional Obama" that Republicans rail, rant and run against. While Mitt Romney was obsessed with making some obscure and inane point at the third debate about how much drilling was being done on federal land -- this is the reality of the Prez' energy policy -- which seems to me to have succeeded beyond Republicans' wildest dreams of what they say they want.
It's a little late to "prevent dangerous levels of warming." We're into "avoid catastrophic levels of warming" and "avoid wiping out most of the life in the oceans" now. Or perhaps "limit the scope of climate catastrophe."
Mr. Benen, you've fallen into the trap. The entire goal is to get that headline beamed quickly around the world, in hopes that no one will dig more deeply into the numbers.
Three main problems:
Imagine if your job provided you with coffee and only 60% was actual coffee, but the rest was 1/8 coffee and 7/8 tap water. But they counted all of it and said "Look how many gallons of coffee we give you!"
See this article on how the changing definition of oil has deceived policymakers and the public: http://aspousa.org/2012/07/commentary-how-changing-the-definition-of-oil-has-deceived-both-policymakers-and-the-public/
For more follow ASPO-USA: http://www.aspousa.org
And please consider attending the 2012 ASPO-USA conference in Austin, TX - Nov. 30 - Dec 1: http://www.aspousa.org/conference
So let's just call it fuel, then. Doesn't an increase in fuel from any source reduce demand on other types?
Great post, Ray. This race to be the world's no. 1 producer of climate-warming products is not the goal this nation should be focusing on.
1. The USA currently produces NO oil from tar sands (that's Canada, not us, not part of the article, different problem). We don't really have "oil sands", at best "oil shales", not at all the same...
2. It's true, the days of "cheap oil" are over, $1 gas is a pipe-dream going forward.
3. Fracs don't use/need "drinking water". People are using salty non-potable water and even sea-water in certain instances. The Industry is also aware of the increasing need to recycle/reuse the flow back water for subsequent wells.
That non-potable water used goes where exactly after it is used and has what effect exactly? Mixed with chemicals like arsenic on the front end, the used stuff is a toxic sludge that enhances our lives how?
Fracking in this site used potable water disposed in site, and still visible after 45 years. 80°26'19.69"W″ by 41°58'50.73"N
Ref to Author: Cosmopolite Herald, Girard Pa, May, 1964 and later Fracking 1967
Pollution Site: Circa 1967 (soil samples for drill mud, others in area.)
First start/open Google Earth. Close the introduction. Next 'Fly to e.g. Tokyo, Japan' and enter 'North Springfield, Pa', press the magnifying class/search icon. This takes you to routes 215 & 5, you should see a camera icon on the highway. Pan south west one half of the screen.
If you go to 80°26'19.69"W″ by 41°58'50.73"N
And zoom in the mid right side of the coordinate block you can make out two stains in the wheat/corn field. The darker stain toward the middle of the field is where a ‘drilling mud’ pond was dug to prepared for the gas well drilled 3,400 feet down below that was where the well was drilled, The well was unproductive, and capped, however, if you go there in the wet season, with pair of high boots on, you will see gas bubbling up from the earth, enough to heat a house.
Zoom in to see the details, zoom out until you see a camera icon on route 5, and double click on the camera icon. The camera will zoom around and point west. Pivot the camera 135 degree right (north) of due west, an Xmass tree marks this location. Exit photo upper right, see ballooned camera, and change the pitch direction using the center arrows within the compass north icon. (roll, pitch, yaw). Zoom in just enough to see the camera balloons opened and pitched just enough to pretend fly. Next the pan mouse icon point to any area left click, hold and drag at a pace that is not too fast and not too slow, in one move lift the finger off the bottom. The screen should fly at the pace and direction set when you performed. Repeat the pan mouse left click left maneuver to reset the pace and change direction. Fiddling with the settings and you can fly down the street and see camera balloons open to show the ‘street view’, which has to turned on.
This just means we'll run out our own stash sooner and then be truly at the mercy of other oil producing counties.
.
What is missed in all these, "yeah, but..." posts is that with U.S. independence of imported oil, it changes the importance of the Middle East. We won't be strategically reliant on the region for our own prosperity.
Our allies and many of our overseas investors will remain dependent on ME oil. That factors greatly into "our" prosperity.
Dependence on oil is dependence on oil. Reducing our dependence on "foreign" oil is a smoke screen. The problem is our dependence on all liquid, combustible fuels that all keep us captive to the infrastructure that was built on oil and that requires oil or its liquid combustible substitutes.
My point is that the infrastructure built on oil is not sustainable from any angle in that oil and all of the liquid substitutes for oil depend on a solid and reliable base of oil production, a huge base of affordable oil on a global scale. That just ain't in the cards. And instead of using this base to get us off the fix, most of this goes into just keeping the wheels on this unsustainable beast.
there ain't no such thing as a free lunch. There is no such thing as "clean energy". We have fossil fuels but they will run out sometime. We have nuclear which produces waste. Solar and wind effects the landscape. But it's as natural as humans are, there is no magical division between earth and human. Humans need to realize that there is no magical god or techology that will "save" us, but we can control what we do. Time to get off this rock and into space.
Don't overstate your case.
Houses affect the landscape, and so do farms. In areas (like Kansas) where the marginal productivity from irrigating the corners of fields isn't worth the cost, solar collectors and windmills have little or even positive impact. Solar collectors on rooftops have zero net impact and can generate more power than the household uses.
I'm in the process of designing a ZNE home for New Mexico, and I've done the calculations. It's quite doable if you don't waste energy.
Any estimates on how much energy that would take?
In the following two decades I'm sure some other alternative forms of energy will be developed. Such as hydrogen and solar power playing a larger role. Better and cheaper biofuels. Innovations in electeric batteries and other forms that have'nt even came to light as yet. Look how far we've come in just the past two decades. We have some amazing innovators in this country and I'm sure they will come up with clean efficient forms of energy.That's if the big oil companies do'nt buy up their patents and keep them under wraps.
And there lies the problem. We've had the ability to make cars efficient for 40 years. I know this because my father-in-law (an engineer) did something to my 383 Hemi that made it get 28 mpg back in 1975. The oil companies hold all the patents. Can you imagine inventing something that could save the world and then having to sign an agreement to never tell anyone about it. It must have been some payoff to keep all these inventors quiet all these years. I wonder if they regret it now.
Yes Jane I remember back in I think it was the 60's or early 70's,about a guy named LaForce that invented an engine that got terrific mileage. There were rumors that big oil bought him out and suddenly there was no more LaForce engine. Really not 100% sure about that it's just what I remember hearing. Also Jane,nice car you had. Loved that engine.Fast!
since this country will be the #1 oil producer, i think the gov't should go back to regulating oil and gas prices. our pricses should be at least 50% less then what it is today. we really don't have a energy crisis and we really don't need foriegn oil.
Well, I for one, am fully on the Nuclear bandwagon! As President Eisenhower said, it is "too cheap to meter".
Plus that nuclear reactor is safely located 93,000,000 miles away from Earth!
A few big problems about this story, some of which have been mentioned above:
1. Oil is a fungible resource. It is produced here, but sold and consumed on a global market. Therefore, we can produce all the oil we want here, but Texaco and the rest of the gang will sell it to whoever will pay the highest price, regardless of where that is. So drill, baby, drill, China and India have a few billion folks homes and factories to power!
2. One rationale the US government has operated on for years is that it was preferable to purchase most of our oil from OUS, and keep our reserves for our own use in the future. That has apparently gone out the window in favor of pure greed.
3. The more oil we produce, the more gets burned, pumping yet more CO2 into an atmosphere that is frankly becoming more hostile to us every year. If you don't believe it, I know a few million folks out East who will happily disagree with you. It's the equivalent of saying, "Yippee, I just found a new supply of meth, so I can keep using more and more of it without fear of overpaying for my fatal addiction".
Re: I am very sorry for saying this but the Republicans are not going to play ball on
anything this President proposes. Do not delude yourself into believing
Congressman Boehner is a Joe Scarborough. As long as the members of the tea
party survive in our political system there will be opposition. As long as
Republican stand by Fox News and Rush Limbaugh there can be no conservative
centrist. The contemporary GOP moderate is a myth. Such may exist in the
"real world" outside the beltway. Sadly these creatures do not exist
in the rarefied air of our Capital. Washington DC remains a zoo of strange,
exotic but interesting animals. Jonathan Chait of the Daily Intel said it best when he explained in his article, 'GOP Moderates Lost When They Nominated Romney'-- "The party has always had its share of crackpots, anti-intellectuals, Social Darwinists, bigots, and swindlers, but they now rule the roost." As my grandmother use to say, "The proof in in the pudding". Case in point: Look no further than Karl Rove
As long as there is a C Street there will be no (good) Republican chemistry with the Democrats, ever.
The quicker the voters come to reality and see this absolute truth the better
it will be for our nation, as we at long last all come together to throw all the loons out
of office. The GOP has been hijacked by modern day carpetbaggers. Until the
bums have been tarred and feathered and thrown out of office and not let back in there can be no civility or reasoning in our political system. The tea party will become the ruin of America only if we let them. We must learn to zero in on the disease and forcefully cut the cancer out of our body. Only the Republican party can put these awful people in their place by speaking out and letting us all know someone sane is in control of the GOP. Otherwise we will have a ruined process for another four year.
Ps/ Praytell who whats to build a oil pipeline right over the Ogallala Aquifer?
I am skeptical that we as a nation will be energy self sufficient. We have been hearing this since the 1970's. The oil and gas industry has blocked any efforts to develop alternative energy because they fear that it will be something they cannot make a profit at the same levels they are doing today. As others have noted, the oil we are producing gets sold on the world market so any oil we produce is not necessarily benefiting us. If it was true we would have cheaper gas and our markets would be less subject to price swings. The Republicans are using the issue to push the government to allow drilling in areas that are environmentally protected. Meantime, the energy companies keep telling us everything is safe and there is little possibility of an oil spill. This is so even though we have the evidence to prove the contrary. That is what the BP Gulf spill demonstrates. There is a vast amount of coral that was destroyed by the Gulf oil spill and it will take centuries to rebuild that coral. We cannot open federal lands and the Arctic to allow the oil companies to drill because their safety record is bad and they do not have the adequate tech to clean up a spill. Alternative energy is what we need to develop and it is going to be difficult to keep pushing forward on the issue because the oil and gas lobbies are very strong.
Agreed. We have been hearing about self-suffiency since the 70's and there was a President who actually wanted to set this nation in that direction: President Carter. But Reagan came in and threw it out. At least, President Obama's executive orders to the auto industry for more fuel efficiency will fare better. I find it ironic that the people in the "rugged-individualism, independent unto ourselves" don't want to tighten their belts when it comes to conserving finite sources.
President Carter is having the last laugh on the Republicans. Obama is doing what should have been started in the 1970's. History is going to be a lot kinder to Carter than Republicans and even some Democrats have been to him. Reagan was no great president and he set in motion the forces that have brought our country to economic ruin. Trickle down economics is the great Republican failure.
Where is the coverage about what this means for the CLIMATE CRISIS? Huh? Rachel - step it up... We cannot go beyond the internationally recognized 2 degree limit. This is a big deal and you shouldn't be afraid to make that connection.
http://priceofoil.org/2012/11/12/iea-acknowledges-fossil-fuel-reserves-climate-crunch/
Sorry, "Kiddles". There will BE NO LIFE ON THIS PLANET IN 2017...IF WE DO NOT STOP THIS IMMEDIATELY...AND RESTORE ALL WATER ON THIS PLANET. Steve Benen, who submitted this statement, is deaf and dumb to REALITY.
Well according to Giraldo back when Afghanistan war began U.S got 70%of gas from Venezuela which supplies all Cit-Gos here.why is our gas so high ?And in Iraq during war gas was $.25 cents a gal.,and the same in Venezuela.DON'T make sense,i know its not Obama fault.People need to pay attention more .
Replace "drill, baby, drill" with "cry, baby, cry."