
With the economic effects of Hurricane Sandy starting to subside, it was widely expected that we'd see an improvement in initial unemployment claims, but few thought the new report from the Department of Labor would be this good.
New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted 343,000 in the week ended Dec. 8, putting claims at the second lowest level of the year, the Labor Department said Thursday. Initial claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 372,000 from an original reading of 370,000, based on more complete data collected at the state level. Claims are now below pre-Sandy levels and near their lowest point in about four years. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected claims to decline to 370,000.
To put this in perspective, this new weekly total matches the best unemployment-claims report since President Obama took office nearly four years ago. It exceeds expectations in a very encouraging way, though Congress may yet screw things up.
To reiterate the point I make every Thursday morning, it's worth remembering that week-to-week results can vary widely, and it's best not to read too much significance into any one report.
In terms of metrics, when jobless claims fall below the 400,000 threshold, it's considered evidence of an improving jobs landscape, and when the number drops below 370,000, it suggests jobs are being created rather quickly. We've been below the 370,000 threshold just three of the last seven weeks, though the further we get from Sandy, the more these figures should improve.
Above you'll find the chart showing weekly, initial unemployment claims going back to the beginning of 2007. (Remember, unlike the monthly jobs chart, a lower number is good news.) For context, I've added an arrow to show the point at which President Obama's Recovery Act began spending money.





Unexpectedly, disaster improves employment. Duh.
You're holding the graph upside down.
More people are always employed during the holiday season.
This is already taken into account - that's what "seasonally adjusted" means. So the number shows an improvement beyond what usually happens in December.
"Now!" is not soon enough.
40 years ago you sent a money order in the mail- "allow 4-6 weeks for delivery"- and you got your Magic Decoder Ring.
Today you click on your virtual shopping cart, enter your CC#, and tell Amazon, "Yes, I want it tomorrow."
Patience, my friends.
It took a long time for the economy to "get sick" (some say for Bush & Co to screw it up), and it is taking a long (4 years and counting) time for it to "get well."
America is the most powerful, successful, vibrant nation on the planet, and "get well" it will. You can bet the house on it.
Send this chart to Boehner, Cantor and ryan and ask them if they can read charts. If they can, then tell them the problem is not spending, but more jobs that provide spendable cash and when spent creates demand and then added revenues to the government and the cycle repeats itself over and over with an improving economy. Also tell them we are very aware that we don't want to follow in Greece's footsteps, so we need to avoid the austerity path that took Greece down. Let them deny they're on an austerity path for the self serving purpose of helping the rich while destroying the 98%. The stupid ~ 48% who voted Republican are shooting themselves, not in the foot, but in the head....