Associated Press
The deadline on the political world's mind right now is Dec. 31 at midnight -- the point at which tax rates go up, automatic spending cuts kick in, extended employment benefits end, ad a series of related measures begin to undermine the economy.
But there's another date that's circled on House Speaker John Boehner's calendar: Jan. 3. That's the day Boehner is supposed to run unopposed for a second term as Speaker. Up until fairly recently, the outcome of the vote was a foregone conclusion, but this week's debacles have raised serious questions about the Ohio Republican's future.
We talked earlier about the "Plan B" fiasco, which left Boehner beaten and humiliated, looking very much like a leader without followers. But will this translate into the Speaker's downfall in two weeks? Indeed, if the leader of the House Republicans cannot, as a practical matter, lead the House Republicans, doesn't he necessarily have to be replaced with someone the conference will follow? If last night amounted to a vote of no confidence, how does Boehner recover?
Some of the Speaker's allies, at least publicly, aren't concerned.
[N]ot everyone agreed with Meyer that Boehner's leadership might be in peril.
Rep. Steven LaTourette, R-Ohio, who is close to Boehner, said the idea that this episode has hurt Boehner's speakership is, "like saying the superintendent of an insane asylum should be discharged because he couldn't control the crazy people. I mean that's nuts."
I don't claim to be an expert in asylum management, but I don't think LaTourette's comparison is especially compelling. If those who run a mental-health facility have lost control, and mentally unstable people are running wild, then is it really that big a stretch to suggest it's time for a change in the asylum's leadership?
Oddly enough, one of the factors that may save Boehner is the fact that his job isn't exactly desirable right now.
As Jonathan Bernstein noted last night, the problems plaguing House Republicans have less to do with Boehner personally, and more to do with the fact that "too many House Republicans won't accept the reality of the deal they will eventually have to accept."
I think that's true, and I wouldn't want to be in Boehner's shoes either, but leadership counts for something. The House GOP is an out-of-control, extremist bunch, who've given up on the pretense of governing, and seem oddly indifferent to the nation's interests. They need someone to play the role of grown-up.
What's more, consider this from President Obama's perspective. As Rachel noted on the show last night, Obama has been negotiating directly with the House Speaker, working under the assumption that Boehner represents the wishes of his own followers. But it's increasingly obvious that the Speaker isn't on the same page as most House Republicans, which very likely leads the president to wonder if he's wasting his time negotiating with a leader who can't lead.
Ezra Klein added:
A significant number of Boehner's members clearly don't trust his strategic instincts, they don't feel personally bound to support him, they clearly disagree with his belief that tax rates must rise as part of a deal, and they, along with many other Republicans, must be humiliated after the shenanigans on the House floor this evening. Worse, they know that Boehner knows he'll need Democratic support to get a budget deal done. That means "a cave," at least from the perspective of the conservative bloc, is certain. That, too, will make a change of leadership appealing.
If a conservative spoiler runs, he or she could very possibly deny Boehner the 218 votes he needs to become speaker, clearing the way for a more moderate candidate like Eric Cantor to unite the party.
The House has given up for the week, leaving town last night and eyeing a possible return next week. I'd keep a close eye on Cantor's travel schedule over the next few days.
The tenure of the weakest House Speaker in modern American history may also turn out to be the shortest.
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Great photo choice, Steve!
Boehner had better keep a wary eye on that fella.
"Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look."
Ditto.
Republicans need to fire Boehner and put
Eric Cantora crazy person in charge.Ugh. I don't care much for Boehner, but he's one zillion times more preferable as Speaker than Cantor, IMO. I will never forget Cantor holding up a copy of the TARP bill and whining about how he refused to vote for it because Nancy Pelosi was so mean to House Republicans. He disgusts me.
Eric Cantor reminds me of certain other members of his tribe I have dealt with over the years out here in Hollywood. The guys who you make sure the check has been delivered and cashed at the bank before you start work on the project, who you make sure the check has been received and cashed by your lawyer before you turn in the work, who you don't go traveling on one of their projects without a paid-for round-trip ticket in-hand.
As another writer friend of mine who is qualified to speak on the subject once said, "They're just schmucks with Jewish names."
If there's another phrase out there that better illustrates the extent to which the R caucus is populated by a bunch of bat-@!$%#, head-trauma crazy anarchists, I haven't seen it yet.
more moderate candidate like Eric Cantor to unite the party.
That was my first thought as well. When a total jerk like Cantor represents the moderate, grown-up wing of the republican party, then the party is in a very bad way. It needs to be taken to the nearest rendering plant and put to sleep.
I don't see Cantor ("more moderate"? Than whom, Ezra?) wanting the job right now. If he was Speaker, he'd be the guy either making concessions in these sham negotiations, or visibly refusing to negotiate. The former would end his cred with the wingnut base, and the latter would at least hurt his cred with the VSPs of the Village.
As long as Boehner's the frontman, he gets to take that bit of heat, and Cantor can be the guy insisting on a better deal.
I'm completely confident that Ezra was being sarcastic in calling Cantor a Moderate.
He wasn't being sarcastic. Ezra is a kid enamored with power. He'll suck up in order to try to be liked and get access.
I don't see Cantor ("more moderate"? Than whom, Ezra?) wanting the job right now. If he was Speaker, he'd be the guy either making concessions in these sham negotiations, or visibly refusing to negotiate. The former would end his cred with the wingnut base, and the latter would at least hurt his cred with the VSPs of the Village.
I agree with this. I think a situation similar like Hastert/DeLay is likely -- a figurehead Speaker, with Cantor as Majority Leader as the one holding the real power.
Rep. Steven LaTourette, R-Ohio, who is close to Boehner, said the idea that this episode has hurt Boehner's speakership is, "like saying the superintendent of an insane asylum should be discharged because he couldn't control the crazy people. I mean that's nuts."
Wow, he really said that!? That's the most honest - and accurate - assessment I've heard from the GOP in quite some time. While the Mayan's were a little off in their calculations, the House Republicans Insane Asylum certain did implode.
all you need to start an asylum is an empty room and the right kind of people
eugene pinet my man godfry
LaTourette's analogy is spot (though incorrect, as Steve pointed out) and I don't think it was unintentional that he compared the Tea partiers to "crazy people."
This is the first time I've seen Cantor described as "more moderate," I don't agree.
"I don't claim to be an expert in asylum management, but I don't think LaTourette's comparison is especially compelling. If those who run a mental-health facility have lost control, and mentally unstable people are running wild, then is it really that big a stretch to suggest it's time for a change in the asylum's leadership?"
Possibly, Steve. OTOH, would you elevate one of the inmates to management? That's the House GOPers' only option.
Cantor is extrordinarily arrogant. I don't see how anyone could negotiate anything with him.
No, but you can make his life uncomfortable by making it very obvious what an arrogant POS he is. Put him in a transparent situation where he can't hide behind false statements, and all but the 27% that still thinks that W was a good president will eventually realize what a dope he is.
As a local NYC Entrepreneur, Inc. 500 Alumni and business owner for over 18 years, I have never seen so little being done to help small businesses or the American people. It is appalling and time for us to demand that they do their job on our behalf and stop trying to "win". Below is my Christmas card to Washington - maybe someone can get it to them.
Thursday, December 20, 2012
A Christmas Card to The White House and Capitol Hill...
Dear Barack and John -
Just wanted to drop you a quick line during this holiday season! In case you don't remember, this is Christine here - a small business owner in New York City, a woman and a proud, working Mom.
Well let me tell you 2012 started off with promise and it was nice to hear from you all and I saw you were quite busy. Lot's of campaigning to do and trying to save your job. Boy I know how that feels lol! Exhausting isn't it? You did good though - wow I mean $1 billion each http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/26/us/politics/obama-and-romney-raise-1-billion-each.html?_r=0 that is amazing and we were so glad to hear that.
We opened a retail store in 2008 as you may or may not know, but unfortunately it did not go as well as your campaign. We put up a good fight though and the neighborhood loved it, but we just were not breaking even so we had to close it this year. We too tried to raise money - but the banks just weren't lending. A shame - just a few thousand would have come in handy. I can only imagine needing to raise one billion - boy oh boy.
We did manage to send you some money though and I swear you both said you were doing all sorts of things for small businesses, but it just didn't reach us - maybe we are too small? Maybe you could check on that.
OH! I almost forgot. They did open up a homeless shelter right around the corner. So many families in need and we were proud to see it happen - but strangely it was for drug addicted men who have a history of pedophilia and crime - not families. I totally understand they need help too and that your neighborhoods probably don't have any open space - but unfortunately I had to then sell my apartment because our crime went up really high and I had a man from the shelter come after me in CVS pharmacy fully naked. It was a little scary for my 5 year old.
How was the weather there? Well Boy Howdy - it has been warm - why just yesterday it was almost 60 degrees! You know I would say it was strange - but Todd and I were talking and said oh yeah it was like this last year too?! Ha! Maybe we will get that Florida home after all and not even have to move! Have to tell you we had a beach - yes a beach for a whole week just across the street. Right here in NYC. Unfortunately so many others lost their actual homes. That water came right up and took their homes away. I know what it's like to be busy. It is not easy managing everything - so when FEMA and Red Cross couldn't seem to find everyone, we really banded together as a community. food, clothes and shelter - we all provided what we could.
Maybe you could check in on that and see what happened at FEMA and Red Cross - drop them a line.
Now I didn't want to mention it - as I heard on the news that you two have been fighting again - but we had another school shooting here. It was so horrible and there truly are no words. It was wonderful to see your compassion and words as a leader Barack. Again I know you are busy, but I really hope you can fulfill your promise to ban assault weapons. It would truly be a way to honor those lives lost and just maybe their parents and loved ones could feel that their country's leaders heard their guttural cries of pain.
Oh one last thing. I know you have to go on vacation now - but it would really be great if you could figure that fiscal cliff thing. John I have to hand it to you - you sure are a quick thinker and boy you did waste a minute - it was like what 49 seconds www.nypost.com/p/news/national/pulling_fast_one_mq7Us7HxlIswOWQIAIsvzJ. You really are impressive! It would take me a good long day at least to really consider a proposal. Wish I had those smarts - but guess that is why you are there leading Capitol Hill.
Well again don't want to bother you - but if you could figure it out it would be great. I don't want to be a pest, but when you guys don't figure things out on time - it really starts to affect me and others. See if you can't figure it out - then people and businesses get nervous and they don't buy anymore. And I make things for sale. If people don't buy - then my business can't survive. I know times are tough and we must all cut back. I swear I have - I closed my store, sold my apartment, moved and reduced expenses as much as I possibly can. I guess I could keep living off of my savings and will, but if you could just try it would be appreciated. I was hoping to use that savings for my son's college and our eventual retirement.
I know, I know I shouldn't have gone to art school and should have just went straight to Goldman, but dangit I had a dream and now here I am supporting a family and if you could just figure it out in the next week it would really help us.
Well listen - happy holidays - really - it's been great to have this time and nice catching up with you. And I want to thank you - I know you have a job and a boss to report to. Say hi to the kids for us and hope to hear more from you next year.
Simply,
Christine
An excellent post. However, the people that need to read it are the House republicans. And since they don't give a hirsute rodent's distal digestive orifice about small businesses, I fear that such an effort would be in vain.
I find the theory that the Repugnicons would prefer a more moderate speaker to be silly. They would refuse to support Bohener's bill in order to support a more moderate one? They refused to support it because it was too extreme?
Whoever steps into those shoes has just gotten his orders and they don't even hint at moderation.
rather similar to the firebaggers' demands that dems vote against obamacare to force a more progressive bill.
Eric Cantor is no "moderate" - he's the kind of guy who would have been a Kapo, one of the Jews who collaborated with the Nazis to organize the Holocaust. A Jewish friend of mine called him a Hebrew word I can't spell, but it basically means "a wolf in sheep's clothing."
What's with the emphasis on Cantor's Judaism? It's entirely irrelevant to what a schmuck he is.
It may be wishful thinking but after watching this voters should have second thoughts about putting anti-government loonies in charge of governing.
The voters who put the anti-government loonies in charge of the House are getting exactly what they want. Unfortunately, the rest of us are going to get what the ones who voted for the loonies deserve.
So, how do the Democrats propose a House speaker for whom they could whip Republican votes to support? Are there enough Republican moderates left?
I doubt it would be Nancy Pelosi ... although she might be able to engineer it. Anyone else?
I'm seeing this a sort of a multi-party ruling coalition, parliamentary style.
I hope it does, and there's a chance. But to make that happen, there would have to be seventeen Republicans who were willing to kiss their seats goodbye forever in 2014. Because that's what always happens in legislatures when the majority can't elected a leader and some of them vote for a member of the other party. The zealots purge the "traitors" in the primaries and replace them with people who are far, far worse.
Of course, the Democrats could welcome those 17 Republicans into the party and they could run in 23014 as Democrats with the support of the party. I could live with a deal like that since the kind of Republicans who would do it aren't that different from the Blue Dogs we already put up with.
The LaTourette quote should almost be the lead on this story.
I think he used the term "moderate" in the sense relative to the republican caucus, where in that spectrum, Boehner is probably a "flaming liberal"
I am convinced that this Boehner humiliation was orchestrated by Eric Cantor -- specifically so that Cantor can become Speaker. For Cantor, it's all about his own ego and power. If you look at the times where the rug has been pulled out from under Boehner by House Republicans, Eric Cantor is always somehow connected to it. And I disagree with Ezra Klein's assertion that Cantor is a moderate -- Cantor is about as extreme as they come... particularly if it means he gets power, and his ego gets stroked and he gets attention. If you look at the video of the House GOP filing out last night, Eric Cantor was the only one smiling. Sporting a Cheshire Cat grin, he seemed to be relishing a victory that was going to put him squarely in the Speaker's seat in the next Congress.
I disagree. I strongly doubt Cantor wants to be Speaker, because that would mean being up front and taking the hits. I think he's happy to let an ineffective simpleton like Boehner sit in that chair, while he (Cantor) acts as the power behind the throne. Boehner, as Mr. Benen keeps pointing out, is the leader in name only, and actually takes orders instead of giving them. I'm pretty sure the House GOP like that setup.
I dunno, Shade - did you see Cantor's smile leaving the Boehner surrender meeting last night. It was like the Speakership was so close he could taste it.
When (not if) Cantor becomes Speaker, any remote chance of compromise will go out the window. Boehner would do the entire country a favor if he'd bow to the inevitable, round up enough votes from "moderate" Republicans to help Democrats pass a reasonable deal -- the equivalent of falling on his sword for the country -- and take his defeat gracefully. Of course, it will be the last legislation passed in the House until 2014 except for insane laws such as requiring school teachers to carry guns. But at least Boehner will have done that much.
What the democrats should do is, get all the republicans together that lost their seats for next term, and convince the they really have nothing to lose, now.
Something like that, Knobson. I'm not sure what it is, but my suggestion is divide and conquer. Get whatever moderate-ish Republicans to understand that the extreme wing is going down and this is their path to re-election in '14.
One thing I learned in my business life is that, to get a deal signed and sealed, your first job is to locate and get access to the decision-maker in the organization. That actually sounds easier than it is. I'm afraid that the decision-maker in this instance doesn't even hold office [hint: Norquist and his backers], so I for one am getting out my parachute and preparing to go over the cliff.
Ezra needs to work on his lazy phrasing. Cantor's a "more moderate candidate" than who, and by whose standards, and in which direction?
If Boehner is at the "far left" of Ezra's spectrum, then yeah, Cantor's "more moderate" (meaning "to the right of" Boehner but "not as far right" as Miss Crazytrain USA).
In any case, the phrase "more moderate" should never be used to describe a staunchly far-right-wing intransigent political kamikaze like Cantor.
Now that the Mayan calender has expired without disaster, we must face the fact that January 2nd will arrive on time and one of two things will have to happen:
Either a plan that involves some sort of tax increase on higher income citizens will pass with support of Democrats and part of a fractured Republican party,
Or taxes will increase on all citizens receiving a paycheck due to Republican tantrums in the House.
Which will it be House GOP, splitting up the party or all going down together?
Its amazing when I read the comments here. Not a comment from anyone but a moddow kool aid drinker agreeing with the article. But one thing I have learned is liberals say exactly opposite of reality. This is a conservative victory. Conservatives voted against tax hikes on anyone and succeeded. Oh sure it was the tea party that voted for tax hikes. Keep telling yourself that. In fact Rachel should make this claim tonight on her show. It will show how dumb her viewers are because they believe it. Obama and HAIRY Reed could put up a tax cut bill and cut taxes to eveyone this minute. They They hold the 1% as hostage. Guys like me that have a business that is in the 500k plus bracket . Too bad you fools don't understand that I have four salaries to pay, medical insurance to the tune of 50k per year, unemplotment insurance etc. Anybody that goes along with this article is a dope.Let Obama is now responsible for the tax hike, he owns it.
click, ignore, done. It's what I always do when a poster starts out with an insult. You win lots of friends by calling them stupid, stupid.
Too bad guys like you don't understand that you are only taxed on the profits you made after you've paid those four salaries, medical insurance, unemployment insurance, etc. If you have 500K of taxable personal income left after all your business expenses and personal tax deductions are paid, then you really CAN afford a modest tax increase.
By the way all you kool aiders. If Boehner got his way it would be a two person government. The house speaker and barak obama. I know you libs like the supreme king leader but I like a group of elected officials. What about dems in the house. they wont vote for anything at all. Obama forbids them, theuy will sick nancy on you.
house republicans did elect Boehner as speaker of the house. I assume he talks to his caucus as well as the president. and Cantor also said they had the votes for plan B. they are absolutely fractured. useless!
If Cantor succeeds at this take over, then we'll see what happens with the patients start running the asylum.
go read charlie pierce's excellent take on this at www.esquire.com/politics
This Republican party is the one that rewards failure, remember? Priebus et al.
I suppose you mean failure in an election where republicans only lost by 330,000 in the critcal swing states. Thats the total of only a small percentage of voter fraud committed only by democrats.
Obama owns the economy now....