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With John Kerry very likely moving from the Senate to the State Department, attention shifts to Massachusetts, where Elizabeth Warren is suddenly the senior senator from the Bay State, Gov. Deval Patrick (D) will soon appoint a placeholder senator, and positioning is underway for the June special election to succeed Kerry in the chamber.
On the Republican side, defeated Sen. Scott Brown (R) has made little effort to hide his interest in running again, despite his sizable 2012 defeat. In a farewell speech, Brown boasted that he "may obviously meet" his fellow senators again, and he said with a smile that defeat is "temporary." Soon after, the Republican wrote an op-ed emphasizing the importance of "second chances."
What are Brown's chances? A poll this week showed him with a strong, early advantage, but Nate Silver and Dave Weigel have both made compelling arguments that his election is hardly a sure thing.
Among Democrats, the race is likely to be far more competitive and wide open. Most of the recent speculation has focused on Rep. Ed Markey, Rep. Michael Capuano, and Vicki Kennedy, and Ted Kennedy Jr.
Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.), the only New England Democrat who sided with congressional Republicans against health care reform, has also begun telling allies that he's eyeing the race.





Why can't the MA legislature change the state law and have Kerry appoint his successor?
Like MA resident Dr. Rachel Anne Maddow who could easily raise 10s of millions for a campaign due to her national following, and could easily cream Scott Brown in any debate.
JohnMesserly is right on both points. Especially the second - I'd drool at the prospect of a debate between Scott Brown and Rachel Maddow.
Run, Rachel, run!!
I want to be honest with you. She is on record that she is definitely not interested in public office- That she likes her job too much (source). And it is certainly fair of her to turn the question around and ask why we don't.
In this case, the answer is that if she doesn't run, Scott Brown will win. Even the well known Deval Patrick is behind Brown by 7 points.
Given her opposition, this would take a concerted effort to pull off. It would be no picnic for her and can believe she would find it far less fun. But the "fun" quip I think was a bit of a dodge. My impression is that duty and integrity drives her more than the hedonism of playful treatment of politics.
Personally I think she is tough enough and will step up if enough people impress upon her that her country needs her to take this on. Heck- once someone gets strong enough or the Senate is not as precarious, she can step down if she wants to get back to talking rather than doing.
I don't think Brown as a snowball's chance. He was just roundly defeated, remember everyone said he was gong to win as late as last September.
So what is your explanation why the well loved and well known Deval Patrick polls 7 points behind Brown? (Nate provides a link to the WBUR poll if you are interested).
I'll tell you why, John. Because there is a plurality of older, well off Republicans in Massachusetts that fall for his, "I'm a moderate" lie even though vote wise, he has almost towed the party line except in votes where he could get away with it like the vote on DADT.
The only thing standing between Rachel and victory is herself. There is nothing about her life today that would stand against her (literally making her the posterwoman for 50 years of progress) - in fact, what used to be negatives would be positives.
If she and Elizabeth Warren went into the Senate together, they could quadruple the collective IQ in that swamp.
It really is a case where a damn good argument can be made that "your country needs you, Ms. Maddow!"
Rachel Maddow would clean Scott Brown's clock!
John Messerly-
That same polling firm, Massinc, had Brown up 4 against Warren in November when he lost by 8. There was another recent poll from Emerson College which shows very different results.
While I agree that Rachel Maddow is brilliant, progressive and politically savvy -- I wonder whether her influence would be greater as one of one hundred lawmakers in the Senate, or as one of the two most perceptive political commentators on television today... (the other being Bill Moyers)
No question about Moyers. But I think that Amy Goodman's, Hayes', and O'Donnell's observations and guest choices have established them as first rate commentators as well.
There is no question that Maddow is amazing in her ability to reach viewers who would otherwise be disinterested in difficult subjects. Nonetheless, I think you underestimate her. In my view the combination of charisma, political acuity, drive, sense of duty and ability to achieve a rapport with people from sharply different perspectives is the stuff of a very a rare class of politician.
Think about it. Howard Dean Or Warren for two terms after Obama, then Maddow as our first gay president. Her charisma and ability to charm people- people would forget about Reagan's reputation as great communicator and instead talk about the Maddow Magic.
You forgot to mention Ben Aflaaaaack. Rich, handsome- and, unlike Brown- smart.
Joe Kennedy III!
Nate Silver says you're not a guarantee.
Now there's something you don't wanna see or hear.
How stupid to put that seat at risk!
Someone please explain to me why Obama is risking another seat in the Senate with his SoS pick. We need every vote in the Senate. Why risk it?
Republicans made it known that they were going to be really, really disagreeable (as if they wouldn't be anyway) if Obama didn't choose Kerry and open up the Senate seat. Past practice tells us how accommodating Obama has been to these little snits by the GOP.
Once again, they're rewarded for bad behavior.
I don't get it either. I would have nominated Rice and gone to the mat. What message does this send to Republicans? That we will take nominees off the table if they have tantrums and then nominate the very person they suggest!
This is something the O man has to work on.
I think the President has to carefully choose his battles. I trust his judgment.
At what point has he chosen to fight one of these kinds of battles? When has he "gone to the mat" for a nominee?
If he hadn't capitulated so many times before, it would be different. This is a pattern. As any parent or teacher knows, you can't continually give in just to keep a kid quiet. Some goes for cranky, grandstanding politicians.
Uh, let's see. Elena Kagan, Sonia Sotomayor...
He would have for Rice, but she's the one that backed out. What do you do? FORCE somebody to run? I am sure he could have talked Rice into it, but that's not his style. He wants people that are 100% IN, not just in because he talked them into it when they had decided to opt out.
I don't trust his judgement on anything, unless his feet are held to the fire. Otherwise he's just "the Good Emperor." And he's still running Guantanamo, has put forward draconian policies against governmental transparency, is continuing his homicidal killer drone program, and loves his Empire, the one he said needed to end. The best you can say about Obama is he isn't Romney. I don't care how nice he talks about anything. When I look at what he does, he is the biggest disappointment I have ever seen in 50 years in Democratic politics.
Occams, I am with you guys ideologically. But I do believe in the concept of "political capital," and it's a finite resource. Obama has to choose his battles.
On the fiscal cliff, he has just played the GOP like a cheap violin. Some blogger (smarter than me) suggested a couple of months ago that if Obama was re-elected, he could call Boehner's bluff and put some Social Security concessions on the table without fear of the House actually agreeing to meet him halfway. The failure of "Plan B" (or any other plan that called for even the TINIEST concession from the Tea Party) was a fait accompli. Boehner has adjourned the House for the rest of the year, leaving Obama and the Democratic senate to draft the deal that they really want. If the Republicans come back in January and block the Senate bill, then EVERY American will see a huge ding in their next paycheck due to the tax increases required by the sequestration deal. Americans are smart enough to look at this scenario and see that the GOP RAISED TAXES due to their obstinance.
I think that end game is worth putting a senate seat into play. The Republicans have already said that Kerry would "sail through" for SoS. So Obama wastes zero time and energy fighting for that nomination, and gets to focus on fiscal issues.
Don't assume that Brown will win. Remember that Brown just burned through a shipload of SuperPAC money and lost. If the Dems field an exciting and inspiring candidate and pour a bazillion dollars into the campaign, they could beat him handily.
BTW, Obama committed to Kerry AFTER it was clear that Boehner's plan was about to collapse like a wet taco. Coincidence? I think not.
why won't or can't Gov Patrick appoint himself? He already said he won't run for re-election as Governor. I would assume he'd be a strong state-wide candidate in the special election
I think that this would be the perfect move to thwart Scott Brown and the Republicans. Patrick has the background necessary to win this seat, and it's a nature move for him. Let's hope he sees it that way. Or, at least, that he appoints someone as a caretaker and then runs for the seat.
Patrick won't do it. He's holding out for appointment to the post of Attorney General.
Stephen Lynch is the only democrat mentioned that I dislike and always have.
Next summer is a good time to have a special election. Much much more preferrable than the middle of the winter which is when Scott Brown ran.
Our state learned a lot from his special election and we won't go into this election with our eyes closed. We have some good candidates on our side to consider and please remember - Scott Brown hurt himself tremendously in his debates with Elizabeth Warren.
His image took a huge hit this last campaign. He'll most likely make the same mistakes again.
He is who he is. A blank slate.
He's no shoe in.
Not to mention the A rating Brown has with the NRA. That could come back to haunt him....
Is the rating that Senator Harry Reid has had with the NRA???
That could come back to haunt him....?????
Scott Brown is no Harry Reid.
I'm from Massachusetts and pay very close attention to the politics of the state and our nation. Scott Brown will run and - despite the fact he's a liar and a whore - will probably win. It's all about name recognition and money, both of which he has in abundance. (Not to mention the flood of SuperPAC $$ that will come flooding in. He's not stupid enough to repeat the mistake he made with Warren about pledging no outside money.) The Kennedys (with the exception of Vicki) don't stand a chance. Their time has passed. Unfortunately, the person who is - without a shred of doubt - the most qualified to do the job (Dr. Maddow) has made her intentions clear. I truly wish I had ten minutes of her time to convince her otherwise. However, it might be argued that she has more influence and power in her current job.
Scott Brown was deeply involved with the New England Compounding Center fiasco, using his position to weaken federal legislation on behalf of the family that owns it. I strongly believed that was the actual reason why he refused to debate Elizabeth Warren for a final time before the election -- the fungal meningitis outbreak was heavily reported and the Boston Globe outlined his part in supporting NECC, even though they had been cited for serious violations before outbreak. Any contender to Kerry's seat should hit him hard on his hypocrisy that will cost untold lives for years to come.
If the Republicans take us over the fiscal cliff, it is over for Brown. Besides, put any Kennedy in there and they have won.
I don't know how Stephen Lynch could be mentioned as a possible Senate candidate. I mean, his songs ("Kill a Kitten," "Special Fred," etc.) are so offensive. Oh...wait... :)
On a serious note, was Elizabeth Warren sworn in yet? Won't the placeholder senator be the senior senator until after the special election?
Nope. Warren will be the senior senator, for whatever that is worth. It's an honorific, pretty much. You don't get an extra half a vote.
Good question, though.
Warren will be sworn in before Kerry is confirmed. Until then, he's still a Senator.
Kerry would need confirmation first i would think. i doubt that happens before she is sworn in.
Let's beat Brown all over again in June. He's shown us what he's [not] made of and it will resonate still when the special election comes.
Supposedly, Kerry will sail through confirmation. My concern is that he has some issues regarding diplomacy. He shoots his mouth off too much. Of course, our current Secretary of State had that problem, too.
I am a teacher. I taught children for 12 years and now I'm a university professor and have been for 25 years. As a teacher educator, the idea of asking teachers or their administrators to have and use guns goes against everything that school is supposed to be.
I have a simple and horrible question, Would owners of semi-automatic guns be in favor or them, if it were only their children who were killed in school violence? Why is it those people who DO have issues with these guns have to bury their children as well?
I know this is raw, and nasty, and not the way someone that loves children and their educational process should speak. The questions at its simplest is, are you willing to sacrifice your children for the right to own these guns? I'm not.
Dr. Tim Wilson
Professor of Early Childhood Education
Interesting that this post appears in this forum as the issue could be critical to a MA Senate race concluding in June. No? MA is one of Connecticut's neighbors. It has to be concerned. But, of course we are all concerned.
ma don't need scott brown nor rep. stephen lynch who sides with the republicans. if i was gov. patrick deval i would select vicki kennedy or ted kennedy jr. and if he could mr. deval should take the seat.
First time I've ever posted, think I've said it twice now. Wish I had one of those kids I taught all those years ago, they would know how to delete the second post.
Ted Kennedy, Jr. looked like a good name. Was he the boy who had cancer?
Don't live in MA. Defeat Brown again in June. I concur.
Personally, I would have picked Colin Powell for State. He'd be much better there under Obama than he was under Bush.
Run, Rachel, run!!! I would love Senator Maddow and Senator Warren from my home state.
But I would miss her on the Rachel Maddow Show just as I have missed Al Franken and his Al Franken Show. :-D
If the Democratic Party in MA cannot find a capable candidate and run an effective campaign against Brown, how is that President Obama's fault?
I do think, however, that whoever is appointed by Governor Deval should accept that appointment only on condition that he/she will run for the seat in 2014. Whoever it is, Having two years of active service in the Senate in their resume should make it just that much easier in 2014 to give Brown his third beating in two years.
Couldn't happen to more deserving person.
Well, how does this thing go? Is someone appointed by the Governor until 2014 or is there a special election in June?
145-150 day appointment, then special election.
Very disappointing. Obama made history when he was elected so he is now doing everything for history. Not for the people and most certainly not for those who voted for him. Politically, he is failing. Not everybody would have made a good Secretary of State but I'm sure that there were at least a hundred excellent options. Allowing Scott Brown to run as an incumbent for a second time is a mistake. Let's hope that it does not prove irreparable.
Rachel- Check out State Senator Ben Downing from the Berkshires- he is brilliant, savvy, honest, caring- the real thing- he's expressed an interest in running against Brown- he's a great campaigner. Meet him, interview him and see what you think. He's young and has plenty of energy and hutzpa for the campaign.
Congressman Jim McGovern would also be a good choice to replace John Kerry in the Senate. I would also be in favor of Vicki Kennedy.
Who is Vicki Kennedy? Okay, I will do a search.
I'm from Texas and I'd love to move to Mass. just to vote for Rachel! Run Rachel, run!!!!