The Christmas holiday made collecting data on initial unemployment claims a little tricky, but the new report from the Department of Labor nevertheless exceeded expectations and pointed to good news.
U.S. applications for new unemployment benefits fell by 12,000 to 350,000 in the week ended Dec. 22, but the decline may have been exaggerated by the Christmas holiday. The federal government was closed Monday and Tuesday and many states also closed for both days. As a result, the Labor Department had to use estimates to gauge the level of jobless claims for 19 states, including California and Texas, because of paperwork delays. Rarely does the government need to use estimates for more than one or two states in any week. Initial claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 362,000 from an original reading of 361,000, based on more complete data collected at the state level. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected claims to total 361,000.
To reiterate the point I make every Thursday morning, it's worth remembering that week-to-week results can vary widely, and it's best not to read too much significance into any one report.
In terms of metrics, when jobless claims fall below the 400,000 threshold, it's considered evidence of an improving jobs landscape, and when the number drops below 370,000, it suggests jobs are being created rather quickly. We've been below the 370,000 threshold just five of the last nine weeks, though the further we get from the effects of Hurricane Sandy, the more these figures should improve.
Above you'll find the chart showing weekly, initial unemployment claims going back to the beginning of 2007. (Remember, unlike the monthly jobs chart, a lower number is good news.) For context, I've added an arrow to show the point at which President Obama's Recovery Act began spending money.
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Aw come off it! All good FOX republicans know this is just a trick. The job growth is seasonal and will crash now that Christmas is over. The stock market growth came from republicans attempting to stave off Obama regulation and it too will crash as republicans dig in their heels and slide off the cliff(blaming Obama of course).
What we need are more gun loving government hating theocracy seeking corporate yes men in Congress. We may want to avoid a republican president though, somebody will need to be blamed as the economy goes bust and the debt triples.
You are right that when analyzing jobs, you have to adjust for seasonal effects. However the seasonal-adjusted new claims for unemployment is down. So even adjusting for seasonal effects, the economy is getting better. The article above forgets to mention that the results are seasonally adjusted, but this other article does:
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economywatch/jobless-claims-fall-lowest-almost-4-1-2-years-1C7657760
America is it a great place or what? You can come here and spout any manner of foolishness and we just smile with a bemused grin .
BTW in ol BLUE Florida I just filled up for $3.16.
It's $3.49 in CA and we usually have the most expensive gas in the country. What's going on in DC?
You still do, Jane, however both coasts are high right now...all that Drill, baby, Drill ya know...
(link is info-heavy, loads slowly)
Somewhere in Wyoming, where there is only cattle, the gas prices are below $3.00.
If the Republican Congress gets out of the way President Obama might create as many as 12 million jobs during the next 4 years. You think they will get out ot the way?
Neither do I.
And yes you have heard 12 million jobs before, that was Romney's mantra and is the consensus prediction for job growth if nothing bad happens between now and 2016.
All of which the republicans know. They prefer going down in flames while blaming Obama.
This is fun.
Steve gives us a straightforward nice news story. Even warns that the figures are probably a little wonky due to the seasonal holidays. This is good reporting.
Now, I'll bet that by noon, the Tea Party will have released at least one "conspiracy to cook the numbers" theory. And by evening at least one Republican lawmaker will want to start an investigation. Into what, who knows....
Seems every time this administration has an event that even comes close to being a success, the uh.. opposition goes nuts trying to discredit it.
I hate that one of the best ways to gauge Obama's success is by how much he is despised by a very small, yet vocal few. Shouldn't be that way.
Those guys really hate America don't they. I can see them raising their shakey fists as they shout, "You kids, get off my lawn!"
Ron- I think it's more of a confusion state. For four years we have had a President who is NOT a member of the "good old boys club". This is nearly unprecedented. And it must be driving some of them nuts.
Even an election didn't "fix" this.
So, IMHO- I am seeing massive confusion in the Republican Party. But, until they get it together they sure as heck aren't going to "play well". I'm not sure they know how. Money still rules, so following the money typically helps. Kochs are sure still at it.
I guess austerity seems like the best 'new' strategy, huh ? Damn it....
Oh, the people at Fox say the improving numbers on this chart reflect hundreds of thousands of Americans who have given up hope and are no longer looking for work.
I missed that one. Great catch!
I was told that by my brother, the Fox News Republican. He believes Fox even if the chart has to do with initial claims and not people leaving the work force. Ah, the power of the Wurlitzer.
How is it a talking head from Fox carries so much more weight than any other source, held up as a shield against information that even hints at details contrary to it?
The GOPTP wo'nt like seeing those numbers falling. So they'll have to find a way to turn them around. The fecal cliff probably looks pretty good to them right now. Jump off the cliff and put us all in a pile of s*it.
Would somebody tell the Tea Party that when you are dealing with a country, growth, not austerity, is the best way out of debt.
Tea Party's radical austerity plan is suffocating this country. However, this news should give the president a bit of a smile.
Has Jack Welch weighed in yet?
Steve,
I think you're title for this post is wrong. As I read the graph, the unemployment rate is way below a 4-year low. The start of 2008 in the graph would be almost 5 years ago. 4 years ago the rate would have been at about 500,000 new claims.