I know that House Speaker John Boehner has no interest in cutting loose the extremists in his party to produce a reasonable bill that Democrats can also support, and I understand that despite the large scale consequences of Congress' serial failures, the politics under which members of Congress ultimately operate is local. And, as Rachel explained and illustrated the other day, those local politics are largely numbed of accountability by can't-lose, gerrymandered districts. (See also Steve's post last week about the death of swing districts.)
But still, aren't there some Democrats in John Boehner's home district that might be won over by a gallant, party-blind effort to save the nation's economy? Is there no upside incentive at all for Boehner to take a different perspective on fiscal negotiations?
After surveying the electoral lay of the land in Ohio, I think I understand why the answer is no. See what I looked at after the jump and tell me if you see some hope I might have missed:
As a reminder, here's how the statewide popular vote in Ohio translated into Congressional representation:
The number of Ohioans who voted Democratic or Republican was pretty close, but the number of representatives they sent on to Washington was not close at all. Were any of those Democrats in Boehner's District 8? Looking at the 2012 House election results for District 8 might suggest there are zero (which is surely not the case). Ballotpedia is helpful here showing that, true to the formula, Boehner did have to fend off a tea party attack from his right (though the votes for primary challenger David Lewis were a relative pittance, 71,120 to 13,773). In the general election, Boehner was challenged again from his right by roughly 2000 write-in votes for Constitution Party candidate James Condit, Jr.
The Democratic candidate in the general election? Didn't exist. No Sam Seaborn, not even an Alvin Green. Apparently no one thought the "John Boehner is bad at his job" hypothesis was sufficient grounds to run against him.
That same Ballotpedia page uses data from the Ohio secretary of state of registered voters (20.2MB xlsx) and finds 31,878 Democrats, 109,781 Republicans and 326,825 other & unaffiliated giving Republicans a 244.38% party advantage.
Ballotpedia
We do know that Democrat Justin Coussoule managed 65,883 votes against Boehner's 142,731 (pdf) in 2010 under the old district map, which is a drubbing by every definition, but if you're looking for any reason for John Boehner to express some bipartisanship, this is at least a glimmer.
In case you're wondering, Ohio's District 8, which was already heavily Republican, did change a little in the newly redistricted map that went into effect beginning with the 2012 election. The images from Politico at the top of this post actually have it drawn wrong.
Visually, the best look at it is this toggle-able map from GovTrack. (Best to click through. The embed doesn't seem to have all the features.)
(pdf)
District 8, in pink, is in the southwest corner of Ohio. Cincinnati is in Hamilton County, just south of District 8. Dayton is in Montgomery County, that first burgundy one. Clark County, the closest District 8 has to blue includes Springfield. The funny yellow splotch that is Franklin County in the middle here is the city of Columbus.
You can also see the official static versions of before (pdf) and after (pdf).
Looking at the regular old roadmap of Ohio it's interesting to note the shape of District 8 in relation to the placement of the population centers of Dayton and Cincinnati and the development along I-75.
Presumably the architects of these districts are familiar with the data behind Dave Troy's population density election graphs.
Dave Troy
But wait! Clark County is part of District 8 now and President Obama was just hundreds of votes away from winning there and it actually went blue for Sherrod Brown for senate. Surely that calls for some "other side" consideration from Boehner?
Yes, except the consideration he probably makes is that what cost Josh Mandel in Clark County were the nearly 3000 votes for Scott Rupert, whose agenda page paints an essentially libertarian picture.
No doubt the lesson Boehner sees there is not the availability of Democratic votes but the threat of losing support from his right flank.
Bonus, kind of related map:
NPR has a series exploring state issues call "State Impact" that includes a map of county-by-county Ohio vote results for 2010 governor and an anti-collective bargaining referendum called "Issue 2." Not exactly relevant to Rep. Boehner's purview, but still an interesting characterization of the state of Ohio.
NPR
I'm not from Ohio and I've only been to Cleveland, so as ever, I appreciate any further insights you can share on whether there's any source of home-district pressure on John Boehner to compromise in fiscal negotiations.
Leave a Comment:
ENOUGH Steve,
We don't need to hear all that doom and gloom that makes us feel so hopeless anymore!
Don't tell us how "impossible" it is to unseat Boehner, WE already know that! But WE should try anyway!
It all starts with a group of people willing to learn all they can about Boehner and about their state. What about farm issues? These aren't Democratic or Republican! What has the gridlock in Congress hampered the farmers from getting their subsidies? This is one place WE may be able to make some headway.
What about Ohio's middle class? Don't you think they may be a little tired of what is happening in Congress? This is an area WE should be talking up everyday with people we meet.
It may take years to get our country out of the control of the corporations and the extremists, but we can't do that unless WE start, and Ohio is as good a place as any!!
Sorry Steve, I meant Will.
ENOUGH Will!!
No, no, you're right, I'm sure this is all Steve's fault somehow. Go with that and we'll figure out why later.
LOLOL!!!
I'm sorry but I so DON'T CARE about Boehner's DISTRICT. I care about the COUNTRY. And as SPEAKER he should too!
If you really care about this country and you don't want this gridlock to continue, then you had better care about his district, because that is the ONLY way to get rid of him!
I have a dream...Jan 2, Rachael features the vote on Jan 3, and Speaker Boehner is Speaker Emeritus following the R caucus vote on Jan 3. Charge Rachael!
Will -- Maybe it's me, but I'm missing a lot of info on some of the plots. Since I don't know the physical extent of the Ohio-8, including its major towns, where Clark County is, that the color key for the last map on Ballot issue #2 can only be seen by clicking through -- so the net result is that I'm left uncertain about the new data that may be hiding in plain sight on these new plots (that first plot we've seen before, tx).
Sorry. Maybe some enhancements or updates?
tx --bc/hv
Thanks for the feedback. I put an arrow on the Clark County map so you can see which blue spot I'm talking about.
The key on the ballot issue map was big so I just make a more general one explaining the colors so you get the idea.
Somewhere in here I should probably add a clearer picture of where District 8 is. That GovTrack map was supposed to serve that purpose but the embedded version really drops the ball. I'll work up a new version of that later.
The most significant thing about Clark County is that it contains the city of Springfield, which has about 133,000 people in its MSA. That makes it slightly more urban than the rest of Boehner's district. The rest of District 8 is rural except for Butler County (Boehner's home county), which consists of solidly Republican Cincinnati exurbs. OH 8 is probably more solidly Republican now because some working-class suburbs of Dayton (including the one I live in) were moved to OH 10. That district is now more competitive, but it's also now the home of Mike Turner, a relative moderate who knows how to win Democratic votes (he was a two-term mayor of Dayton).
The vast majority of Mr. Boehner's district is composed of rural counties full of farmers that wouldn't vote for a Democrat if their lives depended on it. He is unbeatable there from the left. As for the right.....
Oh, and it's worthwhile to me to see that the Speaker probably doesn't have much to worry about for re-election. Not good news, but worth knowing.
We are dealing with what we have in the House, miserably bad as much of it is. We Dems must swear never again to sleep through post-census elections, mid-terms or no.
We know the districts are gerrymandered, the Republicans and Dems know it too. The Dems had the choice to sue in federal court over the redistricting. So why did they not do so? This is the same issue in a few other states where this has happened. Where are the state Dem parties? Even if the chance is slight to get a federal court to stop this gerrymandering, at least make noise so that the Republicans know you are alive.
We had a ballot initiative to have an independent group draw the districts & it failed miserably. I really don't know why either
My son lives in Boehner's district. While he's in the Dayton area, a lot of the northern part of the district is rural with a lot of farming. Once coming home we took some back roads. We got to one small town where someone had posted a handmade sign that said something like if you voted for Obama, you're not welcome here. Told the husband to hit the gas. There were some spots where they only just took down their Palin signs(having crossed off the McCain part several yrs ago) Its just a really hard area to figure out tho its in somewhat of a Bible belt down there-maybe spill over from IN & KY. Long ago gave up trying to understand some of the logic of folks down there(except my kid!)
The contitutional amendment was just too much of a mess.
TPM has a breaking item that the House will not vote on any Senate deal tonight.
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/breaking-house-wont-vote-on-fiscal-cliff-deal
I see they waited until the stock market closed!
Congratulations Congressional Republicans - you took us over the cliff! - now what are you going to do about all those people that don't have a penny to live on because their unemployment insurance is gone?
What's that?
.
.
Nothing?
Aren't the congressional Republicans tired of sitting on their hands yet? Why on earth, since they weren't doing anything else, didn't they bring up/pass a continuance of the Farm Bill so milk wouldn't be in danger of increasing to $7/gallon? Don't they have kids... or do their salaries support $7/gal milk!
Republicans think that if they're safe in their districts they do'nt have to do anything for the good of the country. Just name a few post offices, reaffirm some mottos,whine about the President, then sit back and wait to be reelected. What kind of governing is that? I hear a lot of complaing by these same do nothings that teachers should be paid for performance not for tenure. Well hello hypocrisy and so long good government.
Holy Cow - the latest excuse by the Aplogistas is Gerrymandering.
Apologistas are the folks that offer excuses for caving to the Republican hostage taking.
We've heard from the Apologistas the Republicans need a "fig leaf" in the form of concessions from the democrats . Not true.
We've heard from the Apologistas way back on 2009 that the Democrats should compromise on the Health Care bill to get Republicans on board - even just one Republican. Turned out to be totally untrue. Beyond that it did great harm to the party because that confused thinking led to the awful town hall meetings in the summer of 2009 - and the birth of the Tea Party.
This latest Gerrymander excuse from the Apologistas is also false. Gerrymandered districts is nothing new. It's been going on for decades.
Here's how you defeat the Republicans. You stare them down and give no quarter.
Make no mistake about it - the Republicans will harm people in our country. We've let them become too strong to stop that from happening. But we can start to minimize the damage and eventually drag them to the ground and defeat them.
Giving in this time to save those on Unemployment Insurance means next time they will come after Social Security. And they'll get it too. Then they'll go after Medicare.
It will never stop until they've destroyed most of what this country has put together for the last 100 years.
And that will be, partially, the fault of the Apologistas.
Well I live in Cleveland, so I couldn't tell you. Now that you mention 2010 Issue 2, let's talk about 2012 Issue 2 and how badly gerrymandered the new shiny Ohio district 11 is.
http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Ohio_Redistricting_Amendment,_Issue_2_(2012)
The gerrymandering of the new districts really was never talked about here in Cleveland and the new Issue 2 wasn't covered as much as the one in 2010. I highly doubt it was covered in southern Ohio. Most people I've talked to about it said they had no idea what this 'Issue 2' was about. I found the general lack of awareness surprising seeing the radical change of district lines. If you don't know what you're voting for it's better to vote no!
Boenher probably won't be unseated... it's southern Ohio. It would be more likely that we split as a state.
Ohio will find its way, eventually.
Perhaps liberals need a new strategy in the gerrymandered Republican districts. As distasteful as it may be, maybe liberals should register as Republicans. Then they would at least bring the Republican party back toward the center of the electorate. Nothing says that you have to vote for the party you are registered with in the general election.
Herd's idea is sound, and we should begin implementing it as our collective New Year resolutions.
Maybe call it "Occupy the Republican Party"
Repugs do it all the time. Good idea!
This is going to be a NEW YEAR at all! Same old, same old.
Please someone tell me how it was that these repubs got away with all this gerrymandering...why didn't the dems fight it or prevent it...at least take it to court???
Dems are generally spineless. And we prefer calm over storm.
Too many Democrats were still in the stupor of 2008 that they didn't vote in 2010.
Just like too many LGBT-friendly people did not vote against Prop 8.
Someone call John Scalzi and see if he's interested in weighing in.
We are over the cliff, my take on this politically would be, it's best to allow Boehner to drag this out until the people in his district feel it in their wallet. There is nothing like 3,000 dollars less in a person's pocket to wake them out of their ideological coma state. When it hits their pocket maybe they will see that their votes have inflicted a wound on them. My strategy now is to patch the unemployment issue and then tell Boehner the taxes only go down on people of 250,000 or less. He will refuse that. After the taxes hit his people hit his district with ads telling them why they are paying more taxes. Ie courtesy of Boehner and his Republican pals.
I wish I could find it now... One of Boehner's recent great lines is that it doesn't matter whose taxes get cut.
So are you saying it should all be compromise on the republican side
I find it very difficult to believe that all the Republican gerrymandered districts are as red as Boehner's, although I could be mistaken. What we need is the percentage of R/D votes in each Republican-held district. We then target those districts where the Republican won by less than, say, 10% with special effort being made in those districts where the margin was no more than 5%.
Much as I like M. Dean's idea of competing in all 50 states, that doesn't mean, to me at least, that we have to compete in every district. Go really hard after the ones we have a good chance at winning, make a strong effort at those in the next level and encourage Democrats to run at every level.
We may not like to admit it, but my generation, the "boomers", isn't going to be around forever...
I'm a Democratic constituent of Boehner. The answer to your question is that there is no Democratic party structure to speak of here. The district is a mix of West Chester, which is new money upper middle class wing nuts, Hamilton, where I live, a pissed off, formerly industrial small city and county seat of Butler County, and the rest is rural, gun nut, racist evangelical loons. Even when several Butler County commissioners recently went to jail, they were simply replaced by more Republicans. To win here, a Dem would have to be exceptionally moderate and Boehner would have to get caught in an underage sex scandal like his predecessor, Buz Lukens or something equally heinous. Most people here just vote reflexively for Republicans because Democrats are obviously godless commies. And this area is really white and old, too. So there you go.
It is two hours before the new year, How to not get laid, talk about capital gains.
Too long those folk in charge would have us know
How worthless we should stay in our condition.
Resolved: the brotherhood of man must grow
Beyond the narrow scope of their ambition.
Too long they'd stifle our given right to vote
To still our voices raised in opposition.
Resolved: the volume of our gathered throat
Shall drown them out and cry out our position.
Too long they've taken 'way our civil rights,
Declaring their rights rise above our own.
Resolved: equality for all must reach new heights
And justice will be dealt for those enthroned.
Our brotherhood, our freedom, our laws, we need
To fight for them 'gainst those who worship greed.
Just a reminder of the reality of the Purple America:
http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/11/15/15179235-this-is-what-democracy-looks-like?lite
It would be great if we had House districts that better reflected the people.
Well, lets see-we have the same issues here in TN. No democrat wants to run, so the GOP wins hands down. Ignorance, Meth,depression, no jobs, low pay, religion,guns add to the problem. The elite or oligrachs run for office and instill this mindless hatred for anyone below their stature.
In 2012 we had Park Overall to run against Bob Corker-she couldn't even get the democratic nod-I believe because we have open primaries the GOP voters at heart picked a loser for the democratic slot, thus giving the win to Corker. Playing the system so to speak.
In 2010 progressives stayed home and did not vote and the result is what we have in Congress now and in many State houses-where slowly our rights are being taken away.
More and more younger generations will move to the cities and make the RURAL areas irrelevant. Climate Change, transportation and the lure of living miles and miles from your job is waining and will be hard to sustain. This will change the voting patterns,even with all the gerrymandering.
There is some hope. While the electorate here in MO has been dysfunctional ever since Reagan, too, voters still continue to vote in respectable Democrats whenever we can get them to run.
The problem is that progressives are not running at the district level because it is so expensive or you have to sell your soul to special interests. State reps spend all their time raising money and can't concentrate on legislation or educating rural voters on their true progressive roots.
I blame the DNC for targeting only some races nationwide instead of looking long term and developing young talent in all states and particularly in rural areas. But then you are right. It won't matter much longer with demographics changing and so are population patterns.
I feel so much grief for those caught in those deep pockets of poverty in rural areas. Meth is worse than heroin ever was in our inner cities. The crime and despair is out of control. Republicans thrive on the hold it gives them over those people.
Give me a set of markers and a blow torch and I might be able to change the landscape? Seriously, I think a few more years of changing demographics and a growing sense among aging baby boomers that the Republicans have targeted them for punishment will do the trick.
Boehner needs to do the right thing and then retire. Let Cantor or Ryan become the new punching bags for both the Left and the Right. That will take the smirks off their faces and drive them to drink?
In House districts, if the 3rd were combined with the 12th district, Democrats would take the district by 312,000 to 274,500. If the 3rd were combined with the 15th, Democrats would take the district by 318,000 to 302,000. By isolating the 3rd district by itself, Republicans confine Democrats to one small area and they get TWO SEATS to Democrats' one seat, instead of having one Democrat and one Republican seat. That's creative gerrymandering! I went to the maps and 2012 election results to get that information. I haven't looked at the other isolated districts yet.