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The House Republican leadership
For all the scuttlebutt about a Senate agreement this afternoon, negotiators had not -- and have not -- resolved major issues such as the automatic spending cuts in sequestration, suggesting much of the relief was wildly premature. There's still a very real chance the ongoing negotiations will simply fail.
But there was another lingering question for which there was no answer: even if the Senate crafted a deal, could it pass the House? It appears we won't find out until after the clock runs out.
Awaiting action by the Senate, the leaders of the House of Representatives have announced they will stage no votes this evening, ensuring the nation will go over the fiscal cliff for at least a day.
"We don't have anything to vote on before midnight," tweeted Brendan Buck, a spokesman for House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio). "The House will take action after the Senate passes something."
This seems to have caused quite a stir for many in the media, but I'd caution against a freak-out. Indeed, this isn't even that big a surprise -- the Washington Post reported 12 hours ago that the House members "may push to delay a vote until Tuesday," and with "U.S. financial markets closed for the New Year's holiday," it's likely the effects would be quite limited.
Besides, while I'm generally not in the habit of defending the Boehner-led House, I'd also point out that the lower chamber has nothing to vote on. We're about seven hours from midnight, and there is no Senate agreement, no sense of when there might be an agreement, no sense of when the Senate might vote on a possible agreement, and no certainty that the still-incomplete agreement would earn the Senate's approval anyway. It's tough to blame House leaders for failing to schedule a vote on a bill that, at this point, doesn't exist.
And then there's that other factor: as of 12:01 a.m., the House gets to work with a new baseline -- and you'd be surprised how much that's likely to matter to House Republicans.
You'll recall that House Speaker John Boehner's "Plan B" failed because GOP lawmakers perceived it as voting for a tax increase. Yes, it froze lower rates on income up to $1 million, but because it allowed higher rates to kick in on income above $1 million, Republicans interpreted it as a de facto vote for higher taxes, which they perceive as wholly unacceptable under any circumstances.
Tomorrow, the rules of the game change. It may seem like semantics, but after midnight, the rates go up automatically. Given this, if the Senate approves a package that applies lower rates to income up to $450,000 and higher rates on all income above $450,000, that vote is qualitatively different tomorrow than today -- before midnight, it's a vote to allow rates to go up on the very wealthy; after midnight, the rates for the wealthy would literally stay the same because they will have already gone up.
Republicans could vote, or at least consider voting, for a Senate package without anyone suggesting they voted for higher taxes. The Senate package, at least in its current, incomplete form, would be solely a tax break on income up to $450,000 -- while maintaining a new status quo on rates applying to all additional income.
Would these nuances really matter than much to House Republicans? You bet they would.
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A comment I made earlier. Boehner is still stuck by the Hastert Rule, which prevents him from bringing anything to a vote in the House unless half of the Republicans support the bill. Without that 51%, he can't even bring something up for a vote when 100% of the Democrats might support the bill.
Waiting a day means that there are fewer tea partiers such as Allen West and Joe Walsh to mess things up.
Having just finished a very informative front-page post on Daily Kos (here), I'd like to humbly suggest a renaming of the Hastert Rule, into the Hastert-Lenin rule:
After all, we should not pretend that our legislative system is remotely functional as a body representing the interests of either its costituents or the country as a whole.
It was Lenin who said what is functionally true of our House:
do the outgoing representatives and senators vote on this after tonite?
The new Congress is not sworn in on January 1, so they could still vote before Thursday, Jan. 3 at noon. I don't have any confidence that the House will accomplish anything useful before then, but perhaps they could go out with one final, effective, courageous act. For a change.
Welcome to Y2K (2.0)
Not really. Y2K problems were mostly averted because software can be recoded with relative ease (there was just a hell of a lot of coding to change). If only Republican brains were so open to adjustment.
It would be much easier if the teapubs had brains to begin with.
Like it or not TeaPubs are here to save you from yourselves.
TeaPubs are here to destroy this once great country. And doing a fair job of it.
Ahahahahaha!
Over the cliff we go, anyways!
All bets are off. Screw 'em, don't let them have anything, and make sure this @!$%# sticks to their walls!
Then I think Dems and Obama should pull their cards off the table and reset to the $250k mark or nothing! Let's be tough! If Repubs think they are going to get something for nothing here by playing with the calendar, I say, "Forget it!" They can hold back their vote so they can "save face" but then they have to vote on a different set of options.
PaulyHeins is spot on. Obama & the Dems gotta stand strong on this one, set a new tone that the Republican crisis-inventing, hostage taking approaches will not help them, only hurt them, politically.
What options? IF we are really serious about knocking down Trillion dollar deficits, just increasing taxes on anyone making over 250k will be a drop in the proverbial bucket. What other options? Must be spending cuts, cause everyone seems OK with extending the "Bush era" tax cuts. I really don't know if that would be considered "hostage taking", but if there are no cuts - like the across the board cuts in the cliff - then all this talk is about knocking off $160 Billion off our massive deficits. And then all we are arguing about is a pretty small deal
Once again we get the typical I want 40 years of GOP skipping out of paying their debts paid off right now whines from the right.
whom,
Yes the Republicans put most of the debt on. I totally agress. So? Does that mean we don't fix it in any way shape or form? It's their fault so let's keep doing it - which we are, at a $ Trillion/yr clip. I agree on the blame. What do you think about the fix now? Or is your answer "it's the Republican's fault". BTW I voted third party the last 3 Presidential elections as well as most Congressional and state/local elections (when available).
Skip,
The way most of us liberals/dems see it is, conseratives/repubs created most of the debt with give-aways to Big Pharma, Big Insurance, Big Banks, Big Defense Contractors, etc. And now their answer is, "Cut entitlements to the little guy."
That may be a little simplistic, but it's not too far from the truth.
And from above, you question the options. There are really no options being discussed in this conversation (the one in Washington, DC, not the one here) and we both know it. These are just bandaids.
If we are REALLY going to discuss "Options" then we should be talking about a VAT, a financial transaction tax, severely cutting defense spending, and nationalizing healthcare, and more. THESE are ideas that will actually do something. But these are BIG ideas/options and nobody seems to even want to talk about them, let alone do something about them.
Happy New Year, and thanks for the discussions.
Pauly speaks for me, too. The RW is stuck on tossing the least powerful under the bus, yet the I've been posting that video, which explains it very clearly.
TP was an astro turf organization, sponsored by the ALEC and other wealthy folks pushing an agenda that the majority of people (breathing people) do not want done.
Also, Happy New Year to all!
This is the video I was talking about:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXUPDAMc_6o&feature=player_embedded#!
skip, there is the great desire for "starve the beast", which is what they did.
part 1. rack up debt and cut revenue.
part 2 is cut FDR programs to their demise.
WTP don't want that.
But Alec keeps pushing for more stuff they want.
WTP are not corps.
"...It's tough to blame House leaders for failing to schedule a vote on a bill that, at this point, doesn't exist..."-Benen
But it is so easy to blame them for there being no bill to begin with. They are just not intelligent enough to write one...is that it? We pay them to proof read and then object? This is the lamest republican congress ever. They simply ignore the will of the people as if it only exists when it agrees with what these repubs want to do anyway.
Look at what you are saying Benen. You don't think the whole affair is ridiculous and stupid...that we should even be here? Petty egos exposed should bring shame and embarrassment not denial and pretense that these idots are serious or credible. Just pathetic...get republicans out of office..save our democracy.
Of course the "will of the people" is to not pay more taxes - who does? That is obvious and adds nothing to the argument. I highly doubt the will of the people is for spending cuts also, but that has to be done too if we are ever going to get the deficits down. Especially if all of us (except the upper 2% which is OK by me) do not want our taxes increased. The additional revenue of increasing the taxes on the 2% would bring in $160 Billion a year to go against the $ 1 Trillion deficit. So if that is the will of people, we defintely need a lot more to reduce the deficit, so that means spending cuts.
Anyone with half a brain doesn't like paying taxes they do so because they understand taxes are what a good citizen pays for the government services they enjoy. The problem is you folks on the right listened to the lies and insane rantings of a retired soap salesman Who said taxes were a punishment for the wealthy. But for children trying to make a buck to buy things for school by delivering papers, mowing lawns, working part time waiting tables for the tips and babysitters it was their civic duty to pay taxes on those earnings and it taught children what it meant to be a good tax paying citizen.
Actually I think the cliff is OK. It's tough medicine but it will help a lot more than any "compromise" that would have (or will in January). Watering down the sequestration will not reduce the deficits by more than 10% or so which means we will still have deficits of $800 Billion/year on the current pace and that comes out to $8 Trillion more added to the debt in ten years. So in 2023 our national debt - if nothing else is done besides any minimally effective compromise - will be around $ 25 Trillion. Then what? We might as well go over the cliff as is. It will hurt in the next few years, but we have to go that way - otherwise we will have $25 Trillion or more of debt in the next decade.
The fiscal cliff is not ok. It is not ok because it is not the only answer. It was put into place to help force Congress to act on the debt. They did not act because the the republicans will not compromise. There are better ways out of this debt. Economist like Krugman and Reich are saying there are better ways out of this debt. But the Republicans believe that cutting spending is the only way. This is what Greece was forced to do and we know that it does not work.
So why can't the Congress get to gether and review the options and act like adults and do the right thing?
Because the Repbulicans are doing what ever they can to show that they have power, and the democrats are afraid to stand up to them and deal with them like the children that they are. (We are not going to vote on this because Obama hurt our feelings.)
Right a rightie worried about the debt 40 years to late.
So what are the other ways around this. Tax increases on the wealthy only? That's all I am hearing - and I am all for it too. But IF that is the only tax increase, that is not near enough. What else?
Oh an whom, if I am a rightie worried about debt 40 years too late, then, based on your comments you are a leftie not worried at all. Just keep everything the same except tax the 2% more. That won't do it. Not even close.
Increasing the taxes is a start. We did not arrive at where we are overnight. You cannot expect to solve the problem in 1 year.
Here is a short good article about the debt problem.
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/how_bad_is_our_debt_problem_and_will_a_deal_fix_it_20121230/
We as a country have the abilibty to get out of debt. But you cannot go nuts and just start slashing. This is something that we will have to work on for years. The sad part is I do not think that any of our representatives will do what is best for our country.
Skip. You must not be paying attention. Many, many talks on cuts. But the only cuts the GOP are interested in are to the big 3. Defense need cut by billions. They want to add more to it. Obama proposed 2 weeks after Boehner became speaker 600 agency's that he wanted cut, combined or eliminated. Boehner threw that list in the trash. Whos not seriouis about cuts?
Please let us go over the cliff rather than sign all of our rights away. We can't be the only ones giving in in these negotiations. I agree with the senator from Iowa that said "No Deal is better than a Bad Deal"....
Republicans don't care what anyone, including Grover Norquist (who could be replaced by a talking parrot), might say or not say about voting to increase taxes. The big money backers know who has allowed taxes to increase; they're not talking in public but politicians will find out where their money will go.
Steve -- I hear your not wanting to defend the Boehner-led House, as you point out that the Lower Chamber has nothing to vote on.
That is strictly true only because they have abdicated their Constitutional responsibility to introduce legislation regarding fiscal matters. That Boehner is yet again very bad at his job should not be a good reason to give him yet another sympathetic "tsk-tsk" and pat on the shoulder.
Maybe it's time to retire the Hastert-Lenin rule.
It doesn't seem be hurting folks on Wall St.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJI&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
Waaaaahhhhhh!!!!!!!!
Are the votes for Speaker public? Can we peel off ANY Rs to vote for some cockamamie tea bagger? Just maybe Pelosi could win that way, and the country could return to sanity.
I just want to keep screaming MANDATE, MANDATE, MANDATE!!!!! ELECTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES! which is exactly what the Repubs were saying before they lost the election. Why do Dems have to be polite. As Bill Mahr says,"The symbol for Republicans is "R" because that is the noise a pirate makes when he robs you and feeds you to the sharks."
One way to decrease government spending would be to put a hold on all congressional salaries and future pensions until they start doing the job we sent them to
Washington to do.......that might get their attention.......
Yeah, except it doesn't really amount to much money. Even $100million/year doesn't amount to "much" these days.
Arguably they'd make more from all those other ways (wink, wink) they have to make money, especially if their salaries were neglibly small. And with no pensions at all, I'm sure none of them would aim for jobs as lobbyists after Congress. That revolving-door thing, it's just a myth.
Call me cynical.
The Republicans have some damned nerve about the complaint now that the President is being mean to them. And, what do these jerks do every single day? Every single Sunday political show... and the best... Fox News. Frakkin idiots!
What a shock for the GOP and their "decision" today.
Karma is a wonderful thing... may all those GOP/Tea Party "poopyheads" get their just desserts.
Stand your ground Mr. President and Democrats... don't comply with THEIR demands. We are sick of being the hostages of these "American" terrorists!
I think Boehner is disgusted with the Tea Patiers and is hoping that going over cliff will put them in the spot light. Brilliant if you ask me. He does not like them anymore than the Democrats do.
He hopes the voters are paying attention and start sending him good, hard working Republicans, that are actually interested in working for the betterment of the country. Tea Patiers have done nothing but be obtructionists. Fake Tea Partiers like Rand Paul, are only interested in one thing; to protect his wallet and that of his buddies from being taxed too much. He ain't middle class, nor are the people he's beholden to.
Beohner may be disgusted with some of the tea party people, but I think it highly unlikely he will do anything controversial before he gets re-elected Speaker.
There is no way he will support a senate bill that does not get significant republican approval. He may let a bill go to a vote but if it gets no republican votes, he will just say, "I told you so."
He may act differently after he has been re-elected Speaker.
These gop/tp Goofs = Anti-Americans ! They Praise A.Hitler !
And they don't want to pay for the services government provide them with who would have thought a party of dead beat free loaders whining that someone else do what they refuse to do.
This so-called fiscal cliff is just nonsense! There is no cliff! It is manufactured by the media and skittish Wall Street speculators and bankers and republicans! Obama is poised, once again, to blow another mandate, apparently, caving to republicans to raise taxes only on those who make above $450,000.00, and who knows what else is coming? Cuts to Social Security and Medicare? Why is it this president, after all we, the poor, have done for him, in our case donate $220.00 during his campaign, and which we could really not afford, would he sell us out? I thought Obama would be different this time around, and not kiss every republican ass in the senate and in congress, but no such luck! You embarrass us, Mr. President! We hear, all the time, from pundits, that Obama does not like politicians, because he does not want to hang with them. If that is so, why does he insist on trying to do so much for them, and not for us? We heard it said that if he saved every republican from drowning they would still hate him. We believe that is true, but why can't the president see that? Why is it he is so fair when republicans, who hate every one of us on the bottom, refuse to accept that it is they who have caused this train wreck? Nick and Mike Campbell, San Luis Obispo/Atascadero, CA.
The deal isn't passed yet, and you are already turning. We have to stick together, or we will start sounding like the Cons. He is not embarrassing us. He is the president of all the people. Give them a chance. Nothing is going to pass at this time, but we have to be the ones that sound reasonable. We have a new Congress, and a little more power. If it goes up to $400,000 it won't kill us, as long as we don't give in on other more important things. The Republicans aren't going to win this - at least not much. Everytime he gives a little, and the Republicans don't cooperate, the Cons look like asses. A lot of people voted for people who want NO government, so we know there will be a struggle. We can get through this, and I really believe we will come out on top!
So let me get this straight !.. Obama CAPITULATES like always !.. and allows the Estate tax to be tied to Inflation !.. which means Estate taxes will be reduced overtime , Yet he is willing to have Social Security , Medicaid and Medicare tide to a chained C.P.I. which means they will reduce benefits as the chained C.P.I. takes hold over several years ?...
The 2% win again !.. Thanks to the testicless democratic president Barack Obama !...
I cannot wait to see what the Debt Ceiling fight is going to bring !...
Jeez, I hate these guys. I hate them so much I won't even bother to portmanteau "alleged legistlature" into a cute word.
Would you trust any product of any other sort, that was produced by people sitting around and bull@!$%#ting until right before the due date?
(I realize -- besides having misspelled "legislature" -- that my product analogy might not work for perishable goods. I mean, yes, foods that are picked at the last minute aren't always a bad thing, especially sweet corn.)
The first act of congress 2013: "So we have an agreement that agrees to an agreement that agrees to agree with without agreeing to an agreement."
http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/12/31/16275041-bipartisan-fiscal-agreement-reached
People were asking whether the new Congress would be seated and vote on this agreement if it happens on January 1. The answer is no. The 20nd amendment says: "The terms of the President and the Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January, and the terms of Senators and Representatives at noon on the 3rd day of January, of the years in which such terms would have ended if this article had not been ratified; and the terms of their successors shall then begin."
New Senators and Representatives are seated at noon on Thursday, January 3.
Once again, President Obama and the Democrats outsmarted by the Republicans. They had the leverage and wasted it. I live in NJ and someone with an income of $400,000, even in NJ, is well off. They don't need a tax break. And that's coming from someone who makes a very good salary myself.
This economy needs more spending, not less, but Republicans have once again won with their obfuscation, aimed at protecting the rich, that spending is the problem and not lack of revenue. No agreement on a stimulus package, and the payroll tax cut was eliminated!! If the economy goes back into recession, it will be President Obama who will deserve the blame from now on. I hate to say it, but once again, when it is time to lead, President Obama fades into the background. Never again will I donate to a political campaign.
Agreeing to $400,000 is not the end of the world. It may even be a good thing. In my opinion, that is where the middle class peaks off.
Anybody earning this kind of income or less, is the real consumer spender that maintains this economy on its feet. This is the income level that needs the most breaks. These earners are the engine of this economy! Not the Mitt Romneys or Warren Buffets of the world.
As long as they don't hit the poor too hard via Medicare, Medicaid; I see the $400,000 as winning number. More spending by abled consumers means more jobs, which in turn creates more tax revenue.